The Odds

odds

Let’s assume the Oilers can win out their remaining three games (1 against Los Angeles, 2 against Calgary). How much help would they need from their opposition?

Let’s take a quick glance at the standings and the attainable playoff spots:

7. Anaheim – 2GR, 88 PTS
8. Nashville – 3GR, 86 PTS

9. St. Louis – 3GR, 86 PTS
10. Minnesota – 3GR, 83 PTS
11. Edmonton – 3GR, 83 PTS

And here are the remaining schedules of those teams:

  • Anaheim: vs. Stars, @ Coyotes
  • Nashville: vs. Chicago, @ Detroit, @ Minnesota
  • St. Louis: @ Coyotes, vs. Blue Jackets, @ Avalanche
  • Minnesota: vs. Stars, vs. Predators, @ Blue Jackets

Finally, here are the NHL tie-breakers:

1. Greater number of wins.
2. Winner of the season series, or in the event of a three (or more) way tie, best record in games against the tied teams.
3. Goal differential.

With that in mind then, any two of these events would eliminate the Oilers from the playoffs, even if they were to win every last one of their remaining games:

1. Anaheim wins or loses in overtime to Dallas or Phoenix. They only need one point, since they have the tie-breaker with Edmonton.

2. Nashville records three points; they won the season series with Edmonton so they need only one win and an overtime loss to be unreachable.

3. St. Louis records four points, in whatever manner. The Oilers own the tie-breaker (wins) if they win out.

4. Minnesota wins out; they own the tie-breaker with Edmonton.

Keep in mind that this is the best case scenario; each of those four teams would have to do considerably less if the Oilers don’t go 3-0 to close off the season.

Sports Club Stats does an excellent breakdown of the probabilities. Even if the Oilers win every game from here on out, they only give them a 21% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose even one point, finishing 2-0-1, those chances drop from 21% to 4%.

Both of those are unlikely finishes, though. Based on their season to date, the Oilers have a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs. Put another way, we can be 97.2% sure that they won’t make the playoffs. It’s over.

  • Hippy

    BGH wrote:

    @ chartley:
    chartley wrote:
    Germans bombing pearl habour?
    Exactly what movie are you talking about?

    Animal House

    Apologize, I didn't watch all of it at first as I am at work and didn't realize someone had added in the mascot.

  • Hippy

    You don't think some of the lazy players we have are suddenly worried they might be trade bait to New York Islanders or Tampa Bay for a good draft choice and decided to follow the system for once. Seemed a lot of two man fore checking going on and five man back checking going on as well. Or perhaps outright release.

  • Hippy

    @ I'm a Scientist!:
    A romantic dinner with Deepoil? It would never happen. Deepoil would, inevitably, slip something in my drink and I would wake up in Stony Plain wondering "where are my shoes". Just trust me. I don't want to say how I know this- girls talk.

  • Hippy

    Wanye Gretz wrote:

    All this talk of 2% has given me a craving for a glass of milk.

    But how do you get a glass of 2.8% ?

    *mixes 66% of a glass worth of 3.75% and 34% worth of 1%.*

    Tastes like failure.

  • Hippy

    Nsh is in trouble with that remaining sked because the Hawks are a tough club and Det owes them a loss and Min's a good road squad.

    Stl's got two softies remaining at Phx and Col and the Ducks are hosting Dal and visiting Phx so the smart money's on Ana in 7th and Stl in 8th.

  • Hippy

    St. Louis will earn the right to have their asses handed to them in the first round. The Oilers will soon begin contemplating what 5'9 165 lb forward they can burn a draft pick on. Lowe and MacTavish will have a "Mad Men" season-end interview with Katz, and Tambo will begin polishing his resume, wondering how the hell he ended up here in the first place. I love the offseason.

  • Hippy

    The Menace wrote:

    I’m a Scientist! wrote:
    442Junkie wrote:
    If it was a novelty item wouldn’t it be undersized?
    hmmm. Nope.
    I have to agree with 442 – if it was oversized, that isn’t a novelty. That’s just a big umbrella.

    I have to side with my co-Nobel prize winning associate when I say that novelty sized does not unequivically require the item to be small. Consider novelty boxing gloves, sombreros, or the novelty ten gallon hat.

  • Hippy

    Deep Oil wrote:

    JW – you are very negative today…. another website is giving the oilers a 4% chance of making the playoffs….

    Look we haven't even played a game yet and our odds doubled already. The always optimistic deepoil gives us even more hope.

  • Hippy

    Deep Oil wrote:

    JW – you are very negative today…. another website is giving the oilers a 4% chance of making the playoffs….
    http://www.playoffstatus.com
    This people must be glass half full in comparison to JW

    Actually, I'm pretty sure that site is using the same numbers, but interpreting them badly. My link says the Oilers have a (negligible – less than 1%) shot at 7th, and a 2.8% shot at 8th. Your link rounds 2.8% to 3%, counts <1% as 1% and uses some bad math to get to 4%.

  • Hippy

    Archaeologuy wrote:

    The Menace wrote:
    I’m a Scientist! wrote:
    442Junkie wrote:
    If it was a novelty item wouldn’t it be undersized?
    hmmm. Nope.
    I have to agree with 442 – if it was oversized, that isn’t a novelty. That’s just a big umbrella.
    I have to side with my co-Nobel prize winning associate when I say that novelty sized does not unequivically require the item to be small. Consider novelty boxing gloves, sombreros, or the novelty ten gallon hat.

    I'm not saying your umbrella can't be large – but where is the novelty? oversized umbrellas can be found on every patio in the city. You wouldn't win one of Brownlee's Novel Prizes for that.

  • Hippy

    @ Archaeologuy:
    *slips Arch a crisp 10 dollar bill*

    @ The Menace:
    I didn't say how big… there is a LOT of rain falling on my parade… this is a big ass umbrella. Like huge…like Dustin Penner could stay dry under it. I just hope the wind doesn't pick up.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ David S:
    “The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” -Grantland Rice

    Well played sir.

  • Hippy

    Amber McCormick wrote:

    @ I’m a Scientist!:
    A romantic dinner with Deepoil? It would never happen. Deepoil would, inevitably, slip something in my drink and I would wake up in Stony Plain wondering “where are my shoes”. Just trust me. I don’t want to say how I know this- girls talk.

    Deep Oil does seem like the type of scum that would roofie a girl doesnt it?

  • Hippy

    not sure if this has been written yet but nashville's gonna have a tough time with chicago and detroit. Biggest competion is st'louis with the av's and coyote's. Minny's not gonna win out. Go Yote's and Av's PLEASE!!!!!!!