Schremp vs. Reddox vs. Potulny vs. Brule in the AHL

potulny-front

Much has been made by some fans over the order in which Craig MacTavish gave minutes to forwards who the Oilers called up from the AHL in 2008-09. In order of games played, they ranked as follows:

  1. Liam Reddox: 46
  2. Gilbert Brule: 11
  3. Ryan Potulny: 8
  4. Rob Schremp: 4

I haven’t included J-F Jacques since his AHL time was technically only on a conditioning stint, so the question I’d like to ask is this: based on their AHL play, do these four players belong in this order?

I’ve decided to look at a number of different statistics to try and answer that question. Since each player spent a different amount of time in the AHL, I’ve divided all their numbers by total games played to give a per game rate. We’ll consider goals, points, +/- and Quality of Competition.

Goals Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .543
  2. Reddox: .357
  3. Brule: .333
  4. Schremp: .101

Points Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .886
  2. Reddox: .643
  3. Brule: .615
  4. Schremp: .609

Plus-Minus Per Game

  1. Potulny: -.157
  2. Reddox: -.214
  3. Brule: -.308
  4. Schremp: -.377

Quality of Competition

  1. Reddox: 1.853
  2. Brule: 1.677
  3. Potulny: 1.552
  4. Schremp: 1.355

Summation

The offensive categories and plus/minus all had exactly the same order: Potulny, Reddox, Brule, Schremp. Quality of competition, on the other hand, had Reddox on top by a fair bit, followed by Gilbert Brule, Ryan Potulny, and Rob Schremp.

It isn’t surprising that of the four players, Reddox got the most games: offensively, he tracked behind only Potulny, and the players he was playing against were better. Of the four, he’s also most suited to a role on the fourth-line and killing penalties, followed by Gilbert Brule. Given that a fourth line role is what was available to most of the call-ups, it only makes sense that Reddox would get the lion’s share of the games, with Brule (the youngest of this group) behind him.

As for offensive games, the only surprising thing is that Rob Schremp got called up before Ryan Potulny, since the latter had a far superior season. The splits explain that a little bit; Schremp was better in the first half of the season than he was in the second half. Regardless, after that point Potulny was the player who deserved – the player who had earned – a cameo with the Oilers.

Looking at their AHL achievements, it’s difficult to fault the order that Craig MacTavish placed these players in.  In fact, the only quibble that I would have is that perhaps Ryan Potulny should have gotten a longer look.

  • Hippy

    For the record: I don't actually have a problem with Schremp; although it may seem like it from these last two posts. His strengths are easy to see, and if they weren't I'd write about them.

    His weakenesses are harder to see and are often overlooked, except by his coaches.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    His weakenesses are harder to see and are often overlooked, except by his coaches

    I think his weaknesses are plainly obvious. I think people focus on them too much and as a aresult of his hype he is hindered more by them whereas guys with far bigger weaknesses and much less talent are given more rope because less is expected. He is a PP producer and a shoot out guy. He can keep his head above water for a secondary scorer so I can see a roll for him. Much like a roll you saw for Kotalik last year. Again, he will never be a Spezza but there is something there.

  • Hippy

    @ Travis Dakin:

    They would be different. Then again, Schremp would be competing with guys like Patrick Thoreson, Marc Pouliot, J-F Jacques and then Liam Reddox.

    And Schremp's never had a better season than Ryan Potulny put up this year.

    For the record, from last season (Schremp & Thoreson, since I'm in a hurry):

    GPG

    Thoreson: .448
    Schremp: .295

    PPG

    Schremp: .974
    Thoreson: .897

    +/- per Game

    Thoreson: +.207
    Schremp: -.192

    Basically, though Schremp had the same problem that Potulny had this year: he wasn't cut out for a bottom six role the way Thoreson, Jacques, Pouliot and Reddox were.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    He can keep his head above water for a secondary scorer so I can see a roll for him.

    But he can't. In 2006-07 he was a healthy scratch. He's never been a decent +/- guy in the AHL – even on his own team. I see no reason to believe he could tread water in the NHL at evens.

    I also believe that this isn't the first year he was sheltered quality of opposition-wise.

  • Hippy

    I think the GPG and PPG comparisons are a bit skewed since Reddox's numbers were mostly from earlier in the season when the Falcons weren't a complete joke. IIRC in his short stint down there in the second half he didn't do anything offensively either.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    For the record: I don’t actually have a problem with Schremp; although it may seem like it from these last two posts.

    Two posts?

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    His strengths are easy to see, and if they weren’t I’d write about them.
    His weakenesses are harder to see and are often overlooked, except by his coaches.

    And some really smart and enlightened bloggers . . .

    You can run all the numbers you want. I believe the Oilers need to give — whether he's earned it or not — Schremp the longest look of any bubble prospect during training camp and pre-season and put him in a position to succeed. If he doesn't, he's done. I don't care if that means ham-and-eggers like Potulny and Reddox don't get a "fair shake."
    But perhaps I'm overlooking something.

  • Hippy

    @ Robin Brownlee:

    Not just bloggers, of course; in point of fact I think you've mentioned Schremp's flaws along the way too.

    In any case, I do have three questions for you if you don't mind:

    1) What makes you think Schremp will bring more offense to the NHL than Potulny?

    2) Where do you see him slotting into the lineup, given the current group already has Gagner, Coglian, Nilsson, O'Sullivan, etc.?

    3) Do you think it's likely the Oilers deal him this fall?

  • Hippy

    I would love to see some of these guys get picked up by another team. We have too many of the same type of players on this team and we are going no where with these guys.

    Of those 4 I can only see Brule making some sort of impact on this team anytime soon.

  • Hippy

    @ ronaldo:

    I don't disagree. Potulny had a very good year stats-wise given the cesspool around him. I'm curious to see more of him and Brule in the preseason.

    Reddox on the other hand I've seen enough of. A plainer version of vanilla than vanilla. I see how he could play a role as a 4th line filler but as a fan that doesn't do much for me.

    I don't even want to talk about the other guy.

  • Hippy

    @ jeff:
    Agreed. I honestly can't even fathom how Liam Reddox played so many games in the NHL last year and was signed again this year. It actually shocks me to my very core.
    Also AC/DC tomorrow night. Yeehaa

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    I think people focus on them too much and as a result of his hype he is hindered more by them whereas guys with far bigger weaknesses and much less talent are given more rope because less is expected.

    Travis – it doesn't matter at all what people think. All that matters is what his coaches think. And to that end, Schremp is unsigned three weeks before camp.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ Robin Brownlee:
    Not just bloggers, of course; in point of fact I think you’ve mentioned Schremp’s flaws along the way too.
    In any case, I do have three questions for you if you don’t mind:
    1) What makes you think Schremp will bring more offense to the NHL than Potulny?
    2) Where do you see him slotting into the lineup, given the current group already has Gagner, Coglian, Nilsson, O’Sullivan, etc.?
    3) Do you think it’s likely the Oilers deal him this fall?

    Three questions? He don't got time for that, he's Robin f&$%ing Brownlee.

  • Hippy

    "In fact, the only quibble that I would have is that perhaps Ryan Potulny should have gotten a longer look."

    I believe there were waiver issues. Yes?

    It would be interesting to track Potulny's QC throughout the season. I suspect it got easier as the season progressed.

    My theory – As he was the only guy producing, he was given the soft minutes to capitalize upon, while the guys who couldn't score were asked to hold the fort.

    As for your darn statistics, we ALL know that Robbie just needs 15 to 50 NHL games to prove…
    Well, you know.

  • Hippy

    Fish wrote:

    @ jeff:
    Agreed. I honestly can’t even fathom how Liam Reddox played so many games in the NHL last year and was signed again this year. It actually shocks me to my very core.
    Also AC/DC tomorrow night. Yeehaa

    Because in some cases substances is more important then flash.

  • Hippy

    "I honestly can’t even fathom how Liam Reddox played so many games in the NHL last year and was signed again this year. It actually shocks me to my very core."

    Agreed
    And Reddox is better than Schremp.
    Always has been, always will be.

  • Hippy

    Robin Brownlee wrote:

    You can run all the numbers you want. I believe the Oilers need to give — whether he’s earned it or not — Schremp the longest look of any bubble prospect during training camp and pre-season and put him in a position to succeed. If he doesn’t, he’s done. I don’t care if that means ham-and-eggers like Potulny and Reddox don’t get a “fair shake.”
    But perhaps I’m overlooking something.

    I agree. Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best. But he's running out of shots with this club, either he's busted his ass this year and is serious about making the jump or he's done with the Oilers organization.

  • Hippy

    Fish wrote:

    @ Ogden Brother:
    Nothing that Liam Reddox has ever done on the ice has equated to substance in my opinion.

    He's a capable plug, that will win you more hockey games then an incapable scorer.

  • Hippy

    Colin wrote:

    Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best.

    Why does Schremp have more potential than Potulny?

    Keep in mind that Ryan Potulny has not only been a consistently good AHL'er, but in his final amateur year, he scored 38 goals in 41 games for the University of Minnesota.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Colin wrote:
    Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best.
    Why does Schremp have more potential than Potulny?
    Keep in mind that Ryan Potulny has not only been a consistently good AHL’er, but in his final amateur year, he scored 38 goals in 41 games for the University of Minnesota.

    Potulny is also 2 years older then Schremp.

    Overall I see them having about the same potential though. With Potulny being the goal scorer and Schremp being the playmaker.

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    You made a refrence to his lack of maturity in the last thread. I wanted to say that he just turned 23. I know that in my work life I saw some, what I percieved to be anyway, injustices done to me. Wether it be less deserving guys getting advanced or whatnot. I was pretty young and may not have handled it well which probably held me development back a year or two. It didn't mean I wasn't good at my job but I may have sulked a time or two. We grow up and mature. I really think his setback last year was a result of that young immaturity. Especially after he showed well in his 4 games. (nobody played good against the Sharks) I think at this point he needs to be mentored for an entire season by the likes of Horcoff and Pisani.

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Basically, though Schremp had the same problem that Potulny had this year: he wasn’t cut out for a bottom six role the way Thoreson, Jacques, Pouliot and Reddox were.

    And that's just what I have been saying. You have to accept the type of player he is. A PP point producer and a moderate contributer. He will never be a Toby Reddox but there is a roll for him on some team in the NHL.
    Ogden Brother wrote:

    Are you sure about that?

    Yes I'm sure. Relative to many of the other young offensive prospects that have come through the NHL. If he's put in the roll that will give him a chance at success then he will thrive. To date he has not got that.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    He’s a capable plug, that will win you more hockey games then an incapable scorer

    He's a dime a dozen. Schremp is a rare talent. If only you could put the two together….

  • Hippy

    jeff wrote:

    Potulny is also 2 years older then Schremp.
    Overall I see them having about the same potential though. With Potulny being the goal scorer and Schremp being the playmaker.

    And do not understate that Potulny has 50 games in the NHL. That is incredibly valuable experience. Who is Schremp's role models on the farm?

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    Are you sure about that?
    Yes I’m sure. Relative to many of the other young offensive prospects that have come through the NHL. If he’s put in the roll that will give him a chance at success then he will thrive. To date he has not got that.

    That's not the point at hand, you said: "He can keep his head above water for a secondary scorer so I can see a roll for him."

    When theirs really no proof he can