Schremp vs. Reddox vs. Potulny vs. Brule in the AHL

potulny-front

Much has been made by some fans over the order in which Craig MacTavish gave minutes to forwards who the Oilers called up from the AHL in 2008-09. In order of games played, they ranked as follows:

  1. Liam Reddox: 46
  2. Gilbert Brule: 11
  3. Ryan Potulny: 8
  4. Rob Schremp: 4

I haven’t included J-F Jacques since his AHL time was technically only on a conditioning stint, so the question I’d like to ask is this: based on their AHL play, do these four players belong in this order?

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I’ve decided to look at a number of different statistics to try and answer that question. Since each player spent a different amount of time in the AHL, I’ve divided all their numbers by total games played to give a per game rate. We’ll consider goals, points, +/- and Quality of Competition.

Goals Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .543
  2. Reddox: .357
  3. Brule: .333
  4. Schremp: .101

Points Per Game:

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  1. Potulny: .886
  2. Reddox: .643
  3. Brule: .615
  4. Schremp: .609

Plus-Minus Per Game

  1. Potulny: -.157
  2. Reddox: -.214
  3. Brule: -.308
  4. Schremp: -.377

Quality of Competition

  1. Reddox: 1.853
  2. Brule: 1.677
  3. Potulny: 1.552
  4. Schremp: 1.355

Summation

The offensive categories and plus/minus all had exactly the same order: Potulny, Reddox, Brule, Schremp. Quality of competition, on the other hand, had Reddox on top by a fair bit, followed by Gilbert Brule, Ryan Potulny, and Rob Schremp.

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It isn’t surprising that of the four players, Reddox got the most games: offensively, he tracked behind only Potulny, and the players he was playing against were better. Of the four, he’s also most suited to a role on the fourth-line and killing penalties, followed by Gilbert Brule. Given that a fourth line role is what was available to most of the call-ups, it only makes sense that Reddox would get the lion’s share of the games, with Brule (the youngest of this group) behind him.

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As for offensive games, the only surprising thing is that Rob Schremp got called up before Ryan Potulny, since the latter had a far superior season. The splits explain that a little bit; Schremp was better in the first half of the season than he was in the second half. Regardless, after that point Potulny was the player who deserved – the player who had earned – a cameo with the Oilers.

Looking at their AHL achievements, it’s difficult to fault the order that Craig MacTavish placed these players in.  In fact, the only quibble that I would have is that perhaps Ryan Potulny should have gotten a longer look.


  • Hippy

    Poo Czar wrote:

    *hugs Travis*
    It’s gonna be ok man. We still love you.

    HAHA I'm sorry, I am just obviously passionate about this issue and I usually don't say much. I just want to see what he can do.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    No but it would have been ok with me if they had been doing that for the last 3 years

    Properly managing assets and developing talent I meant by that.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    No, they got time in the AHL to develop and were brought up when deemed ready.
    You were there?

    No, but the over ridding theme in the NHL is players come up when they are ready and go back down when they aren't.

  • Hippy

    @ Robin Brownlee:

    Good points. A follow-up question, if I may, since you've raised my curiousity: did MacTavish treat other rookiesl ike that too, or was it mostly Schremp? I'm thinking of guys like Mikhnov and Rita here.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    No, but the over ridding theme in the NHL is players come up when they are ready and go back down when they aren’t.

    Gagner was not ready. It happens. Gagner was given time the last two years to make mistakes and given a tonne of rope. He will be infinfitely better off because of it.

  • Hippy

    I think the main issue here is that we don't get to see these guys play in the AHL (at least not very often). Most people want to "see what he can do", so they have this idea that were missing out on something special because we arent' personally seeing it.

    I would bet if you could sit down and watch 50 – 60 AHL games, most would have the same impression of Schremp that the team does… and the "we need to see what he can do" camp would quickly die away.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Gagner was not ready. It happens. Gagner was given time the last two years to make mistakes and given a tonne of rope. He will be infinfitely better off because of it.

    Maybe, but the Oilers lost a couple seasons of his entry level contract because of it.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    No, but the over ridding theme in the NHL is players come up when they are ready and go back down when they aren’t.
    Gagner was not ready. It happens. Gagner was given time the last two years to make mistakes and given a tonne of rope. He will be infinfitely better off because of it.

    I don't know, he did have a very impressive rookie camp, even for a 21/22 year old his rookie season would have been pretty darn good.

  • Hippy

    I guess another question that has to be asked is where does management expect this team to end up this year?

    If they don't expect to make the playoffs then maybe they give guys like Schremp and Potulny more time to prove themselves, but if they plan on making the playoffs they have to take the best players that fit the team the best.

  • Hippy

    ronaldo wrote:

    Maybe, but the Oilers lost a couple seasons of his entry level contract because of it

    but he will be a valuable asset because of it.

    @ Ogden Brother:
    My point is that given a longer leash and some proper guidance, players like that can succeed. The only real reason Gagner stuck was because the organization needed a story after their dismal season.

  • Hippy

    What about Jessie Ninimaki? I think that he was perhaps the best draft pick of all time in any sport. That foppish little dandy never even got a chance from the Oil. Perhaps it is the sh!ttiness of our scouting staff that we should discussing. I can only assume they were recruited from the CNIB (no offence to real blind people).

  • Hippy

    Need to turn fringe NHLers into “actual” NHLers. More?

    Need to turn fringe AHLers into “actual” NHLers.

    There, fixed

    Jonathan, please, no more Schremp posts.

  • Hippy

    ronaldo wrote:

    Travis Dakin wrote:
    Gagner was not ready. It happens. Gagner was given time the last two years to make mistakes and given a tonne of rope. He will be infinfitely better off because of it.
    Maybe, but the Oilers lost a couple seasons of his entry level contract because of it.

    You don't often (if ever) see Detroit rushing their prospects in. If they need immediate results they trade for or sign for them. All things considered, he's done OK – but he's small, and there's something to be said for allowing boys to grow into men before tossing them to the lions. His concussion could have been a lot worse…just sayin'…

  • Hippy

    Fish wrote:

    What about Jessie Ninimaki?

    Regular Season Playoffs
    Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
    2001-02 Ilves Tampere FNL 16 2 4 6 4
    2002-03 Ilves Tampere FNL 41 4 13 17
    2003-04 Ilves Tampere FNL 10 3 3 6 2
    2004-05 Ilves Tampere FNL 18 4 4 8 8
    2004-05 EdRoadrunners AHL 24 1 0 1 2
    2005-06 Jokerit Helsinki FNL 34 4 8 12 14
    2005-06 JyP HT Jyvaskyla FNL 19 6 8 14 12 3
    2006-07 Lulea HF SEL 37 7 8 15 20

    Those are not numbers that get you a look.

  • Hippy

    Asciutto wrote:

    Jonathan, please, no more Schremp posts.

    When you see Schremps name in a post just move along. You are really allowed to do that. Isn't that a neat concept. Damn I love freedom.

  • Hippy

    jeff wrote:

    I guess another question that has to be asked is where does management expect this team to end up this year?
    If they don’t expect to make the playoffs then maybe they give guys like Schremp and Potulny more time to prove themselves, but if they plan on making the playoffs they have to take the best players that fit the team the best.

    They have to be giving it their all to make the PO this year, new coaching and a high payroll combined with 3 straight misses…. I'm positive this year will be 100% about winning and 0% about development.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    @ Ogden Brother:
    My point is that given a longer leash and some proper guidance, players like that can succeed. The only real reason Gagner stuck was because the organization needed a story after their dismal season.

    I don't know about that, I remember a pretty thin team that actually needed the bodies, he happend to be the best of the bunch (their was debate about Gagner at #1 center right off the bat, so he must have had a pretty darn impressive camp)

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    ronaldo wrote:
    Maybe, but the Oilers lost a couple seasons of his entry level contract because of it
    but he will be a valuable asset because of it.

    Impossible to say if he would have been better off with a couple more years in lower leagues.

  • Hippy

    @ Travis Dakin:

    Tambellini and company finally seem to be taking measures to improve the AHL club. This is long overdue. I'm tired of having a built in question mark beside every player in the system due to the poor overall quality of that team. I believe players can almost fully develop in the AHL and spare the long suffering Oiler fans much of the heartache caused by inexperience. As an added benift, every single Oiler prospect in the AHL will have more trade value if that club can become a winner. This is a pain free way to maximize the potential and value of all our picks.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Regular Season Playoffs
    Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
    2001-02 Ilves Tampere FNL 16 2 4 6 4
    2002-03 Ilves Tampere FNL 41 4 13 17
    2003-04 Ilves Tampere FNL 10 3 3 6 2
    2004-05 Ilves Tampere FNL 18 4 4 8 8
    2004-05 EdRoadrunners AHL 24 1 0 1 2
    2005-06 Jokerit Helsinki FNL 34 4 8 12 14
    2005-06 JyP HT Jyvaskyla FNL 19 6 8 14 12 3
    2006-07 Lulea HF SEL 37 7 8 15 20
    Those are not numbers that get you a look

    I was quite obviously being facetious, but thanks for looking up his stats.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    Impossible to say if he would have been better off with a couple more years in lower leagues.

    He was sheltered and mentored along by the like of Shawn Horcoff. He was given room to make mistakes and that helps. I think he would have been better off with a year or two in the AHL and then brought in to learn from the big guns but he wasn't eligible to play there until this season so they had no choice. Nothing to learn in the OHL at that point.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ Robin Brownlee:
    Good points. A follow-up question, if I may, since you’ve raised my curiousity: did MacTavish treat other rookiesl ike that too, or was it mostly Schremp? I’m thinking of guys like Mikhnov and Rita here.

    So, you were cherry picking . . .
    I saw Schremp and MacTavish as a cat-dog situation almost from draft day. I think MacTavish, and a lot of people, thought of Schremp as a smug kid with cockiness that outstripped anything he'd accomplished and that rubbed the coach the wrong way. Just wasn't a match and never would be. In the real world, personalities enter into things. Every coach has some form of tunnel vision when it comes to certain players.

    Mikhnov wasn't around enough to be treated one way or another. Rita frustrated MacTavish. He could skate, he was built like a tank and he had a touch of offensive ability, but he never put things together. In any case, he was never going to be better than a third-liner.

  • Hippy

    Nilsson isn't top 6 material, Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky, O'Sullivan, Gagner and Cogliano, there is your top six. Bottom 6 is a lot more of a mess with Moreau and Pisani as wingers on the 3rd line, and a mix of Stortini, McIntyre, Strudwick, Pouliot, and Potulny(spelling?) comprising the the fourth line wingers. That leads 3rd and 4th line centres as the only remaining spots. I would audition Schremp, Brule and Nilsson for the 3c spot and Stone and Potulny for the fouth line.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    I think he would have been better off with a year or two in the AHL and then brought in to learn from the big guns but he wasn’t eligible to play there until this season so they had no choice.

    Does this mean we will be getting some big guns on this club?