Schremp vs. Reddox vs. Potulny vs. Brule in the AHL

potulny-front

Much has been made by some fans over the order in which Craig MacTavish gave minutes to forwards who the Oilers called up from the AHL in 2008-09. In order of games played, they ranked as follows:

  1. Liam Reddox: 46
  2. Gilbert Brule: 11
  3. Ryan Potulny: 8
  4. Rob Schremp: 4

I haven’t included J-F Jacques since his AHL time was technically only on a conditioning stint, so the question I’d like to ask is this: based on their AHL play, do these four players belong in this order?

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I’ve decided to look at a number of different statistics to try and answer that question. Since each player spent a different amount of time in the AHL, I’ve divided all their numbers by total games played to give a per game rate. We’ll consider goals, points, +/- and Quality of Competition.

Goals Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .543
  2. Reddox: .357
  3. Brule: .333
  4. Schremp: .101

Points Per Game:

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  1. Potulny: .886
  2. Reddox: .643
  3. Brule: .615
  4. Schremp: .609

Plus-Minus Per Game

  1. Potulny: -.157
  2. Reddox: -.214
  3. Brule: -.308
  4. Schremp: -.377

Quality of Competition

  1. Reddox: 1.853
  2. Brule: 1.677
  3. Potulny: 1.552
  4. Schremp: 1.355

Summation

The offensive categories and plus/minus all had exactly the same order: Potulny, Reddox, Brule, Schremp. Quality of competition, on the other hand, had Reddox on top by a fair bit, followed by Gilbert Brule, Ryan Potulny, and Rob Schremp.

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It isn’t surprising that of the four players, Reddox got the most games: offensively, he tracked behind only Potulny, and the players he was playing against were better. Of the four, he’s also most suited to a role on the fourth-line and killing penalties, followed by Gilbert Brule. Given that a fourth line role is what was available to most of the call-ups, it only makes sense that Reddox would get the lion’s share of the games, with Brule (the youngest of this group) behind him.

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As for offensive games, the only surprising thing is that Rob Schremp got called up before Ryan Potulny, since the latter had a far superior season. The splits explain that a little bit; Schremp was better in the first half of the season than he was in the second half. Regardless, after that point Potulny was the player who deserved – the player who had earned – a cameo with the Oilers.

Looking at their AHL achievements, it’s difficult to fault the order that Craig MacTavish placed these players in.  In fact, the only quibble that I would have is that perhaps Ryan Potulny should have gotten a longer look.


  • Hippy

    For the poor system people (looking at you Travis), an honest question:

    Why hasn't Theo Peckham come off-track, if the farm system is so devestating? Don't get me wrong, the famr system needs work, but I don't think it's destroying careers.

    A further question, from the same vein: Rob Schremp had a 13-day callup in early December. At that time, Theo Peckham had two callups, totalling 3 days. If being called up and then sent down destroyed Schremp's confidence, why didn't it do the same for Peckham?

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    For the poor system people (looking at you Travis), an honest question:
    Why hasn’t Theo Peckham come off-track, if the farm system is so devestating? Don’t get me wrong, the famr system needs work, but I don’t think it’s destroying careers.
    A further question, from the same vein: Rob Schremp had a 13-day callup in early December. At that time, Theo Peckham had two callups, totalling 3 days. If being called up and then sent down destroyed Schremp’s confidence, why didn’t it do the same for Peckham?

    Probably becuase Peckham has only been with the organization for 2 years and he relizes he has to pay his dues.

    Totally different scenario

  • Hippy

    Ducey wrote:

    There is simply no spot for him unless you are going to push aside these guys just to give him a shot.

    I've been saying all along that there is a roll for him. You don't replace anybody in the Oilers top six with him outside of Nilsson. I believe the Oilers have blown it with him but it would be nice to see his value increase so at least when he goes to another team and produces a bit we can have gotten something for him.

  • Hippy

    The Good Ship Oil can't be righted in a couple of seasons. The lack of development for JDD and Shremp are fairly well documented – some of it the Organization's fault, some of it their own.

    Robbie needs to put on his big-boy pants, kick at the darkness til it bleeds daylight and force his way onto the big team. Otherwise I'm pretty sure Wal Mart is always hiring greeters…

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    Looking back at you Willis!!! haha First of all- Defenceman take way longer to develop so expectations are way lower. Also, nobody in the organization has constantly had to defend why he isn't here and therefore have not publicly slammed him to really broken his confidence. Peckham doesn't come with a tonne of hype or an instantly too high bar to compare to. He's under the radar and been allowed to make mistakes. Schremps evey move is magnified so it can be used as a justification why he isn't here. That's pressure.

  • Hippy

    @ Travis Dakin:

    Is it the responsibility of the Oilers to maximize the potential of every single prospect; or to ice the absolute best, most competative team? I believe one can come at the expense of the other. Right now the big club is deep in smallish forwards: It's up to Robbie to maximize his own value no matter where he is playing.

  • Hippy

    SkinnyD wrote:

    Robbie needs to put on his big-boy pants, kick at the darkness til it bleeds daylight and force his way onto the big team. Otherwise I’m pretty sure Wal Mart is always hiring greeters…

    In reality though if he does go back down what I would really like to see is him win the Scoring championship in the AHL and erase all doubt. He wasn't far off in 07/08 and I think he could do it with an improved team. I still think though he would be better served up in the bigs being mentored properly.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ducey wrote:

    There is simply no spot for him unless you are going to push aside these guys just to give him a shot.
    I’ve been saying all along that there is a roll for him. You don’t replace anybody in the Oilers top six with him outside of Nilsson. I believe the Oilers have blown it with him but it would be nice to see his value increase so at least when he goes to another team and produces a bit we can have gotten something for him.

    Sorry, not to be 'that guy,' but your spelling of 'role' as 'roll' has been driving me nuts all morning.

    Speaking to that, what type of role do you suggest if he can't fit into the top 6? Exclusive PP and Shootout guy? That position has never (I think?) been employed in the NHL. The closest would be Kotalik and we decided not to re-sign him when he is PROVEN in both of those scenarios. Why would the Oilers let that go and then hope a huge question mark try to fill it? Makes no sense.

  • Hippy

    @ Chris.:
    It's called asset management and letting good prospects slip away and faulter is the mark of a bad organization. At least getting a draft pick for guys is the goal. Look what a throw away pick from the avs for Salo turned into.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    If being called up and then sent down destroyed Schremp’s confidence, why didn’t it do the same for Peckham?

    Peckam definitely shows more character and appreciates every opportunity he gets. Schremp up until this past season, imo, was still very immature and it looked like he believed that his skill alone would carry him into the NHL. The same skill that dominated the boys of the OHL.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    SkinnyD wrote:
    Robbie needs to put on his big-boy pants, kick at the darkness til it bleeds daylight and force his way onto the big team. Otherwise I’m pretty sure Wal Mart is always hiring greeters…
    In reality though if he does go back down what I would really like to see is him win the Scoring championship in the AHL and erase all doubt. He wasn’t far off in 07/08 and I think he could do it with an improved team. I still think though he would be better served up in the bigs being mentored properly.

    I can't see him on the big team this year..no room, better guys ahead in the pecking order. But maybe he gets a nice, injury-free year in the A, does well, a spot opens up, he earns it, and we're writing Rob Schremp drinking songs to celebrate in 2011! 😉

    I think we'd all like to see him succeed – but not at the expense of the team. If he earns it, I'm all for it. And sure – if he earns Nillson's spot in the top 6 to start the year and runs with it – awesome. A Rob-for-Rob trade. I'm tired of Nillson anyways, and can never get the spelling right. Too many L's and S's.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    For the poor system people (looking at you Travis), an honest question:
    Why hasn’t Theo Peckham come off-track, if the farm system is so devestating? Don’t get me wrong, the famr system needs work, but I don’t think it’s destroying careers.
    A further question, from the same vein: Rob Schremp had a 13-day callup in early December. At that time, Theo Peckham had two callups, totalling 3 days. If being called up and then sent down destroyed Schremp’s confidence, why didn’t it do the same for Peckham?

    Honest question? Try loaded question.
    Good for Peckham. He's mentally tougher. And his game entails what? Staying in position. Being physical. Not making mistakes. As for Schremp? Different world.

    Just because you can't attach a numeric value to confidence, doesn't mean it doesn't matter, especially to a player like Schremp. And you're cherring picking with the reference to the call-ups. I saw first-hand how MacTavish handled Schremp from the minute he arrived at his first training camp. Everything, and I mean everything, about MacTavish said: "You're not my kind of player and good luck changing my mind." That's a fact.
    Doesn't mean Schremp deserves some pity treatment and a free pass with the new coaches, but referring to a particular call-up and asking why it hurt Schremp when it didn't bother Peckham isn't taking into account anything approaching the entire picture.

  • Hippy

    IgorUlanov wrote:

    Sorry, not to be ‘that guy,’ but your spelling of ‘role’ as ‘roll’ has been driving me nuts all morning.

    Dude, I'm very much well aware of how to spell and the proper grammar to use. I can tell the difference between there, their and they're. Obvioulsy I'm posting at a feverish rate and missing a few things. the VERY WELL DOCUMENTED lack of an edit button on the Nation is a problem. But thanks for the heads up.

    And you obviously are ignoring half the things I have been saying… I said that there is a "role" for him in the NHL in his present incarnation and if given the right guidance and experience he may have a switch turned on and become a gem.

  • Hippy

    Anyone ever wonder why all those Long Drive freak show golfers on TSN2 aren't on the PGA tour? Hell, they drive farther than Tiger fer crissakes! Put 'em in Agusta and let 'em show what they can do! Maybe that one amazing yet specific skill doesn't translate into actually being a good golfer that wins anything of substance?

    I'm (reasonably) content with the Oil's ability to score, powerplay or not, yet admit that a high-end shooter would look splendid on 1LW. Shremp ain't that guy. If they need more goals, expecting them from Shremp is a bad idea.

    What absolutely killed the team last year was goals against, especially on the penalty kill, and our boy Robbie does nothing to help that AT ALL.

    Sorry kids, Sugartits just don't fit here.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    But they didn’t do better in the bigs then they did in the AHL.
    Look for people with his pedigre in the A, one decent season in 3, including a year with healthy scratches
    Yes they did. Putting up similar points in the NHL as you did in the AHL is doing better period.

    Their first few years were far worse in the NHL then they were in the AHL.

  • Hippy

    Poo Czar wrote:

    Anyone ever wonder why all those Long Drive freak show golfers on TSN2 aren’t on the PGA tour?

    Because they don't hit the ball straight consistently? You think there aren't guys playing mens leagues that can't shoot the puck 100 MPH? Schremps skills are rare.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    But they didn’t do better in the bigs then they did in the AHL.
    Look for people with his pedigre in the A, one decent season in 3, including a year with healthy scratches
    Yes they did. Putting up similar points in the NHL as you did in the AHL is doing better period.
    Ducey wrote:
    Why not just sign the real Comrie for $1.5 million? At least he can score a bit at evens.
    Because they already is a lot of those players waiting in the system to develope. Too many contrats. He doesn’t want to play here. Need to turn fringe NHLers into “actual” NHLers. More?

    Comrie from the last 2-3 years – You don't waste your time developing guys like that. You sign them as UFA's for peanuts when they are fully developed to fill out the bottom of your top 6.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    Their first few years were far worse in the NHL then they were in the AHL
    but they got time in the NHL to develop right?

    No, they got time in the AHL to develop and were brought up when deemed ready.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Poo Czar wrote:
    Anyone ever wonder why all those Long Drive freak show golfers on TSN2 aren’t on the PGA tour?
    Because they don’t hit the ball straight consistently? You think there aren’t guys playing mens leagues that can’t shoot the puck 100 MPH? Schremps skills are rare.

    And inconsistent…

  • Hippy

    Chris. wrote:

    Shouldn’t some of this discussion come back to roster building and overall team balance? The Oilers scored enough goals last season to win games and potentially make the playoffs. Unfortunately, they were lacking defensively. This roster needs to get bigger, and grittier, and tougher in their own zone. This roster needs players who can help on the P.K. This roster needs consistancy. Who really believes that Schremp can bring the elements the team actually requires?

    Bingo, the team would be far better off ditching Nilsson to bring in Malhotra then it would be adding Schremp to the current "top 6" cluster.

  • Hippy

    Poo Czar wrote:

    And inconsistent

    When has he gotten good mentorship? Professional guidance does wonders to people.Ogden Brother wrote:

    No, they got time in the AHL to develop and were brought up when deemed ready.

    You were there?

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    humantorch wrote:
    I’m only here to point out that everything Travis is saying is wrong.

    HAHAHA shut up. Now look at Twitter.

    I did. That's why I'm here. 😛

  • Hippy

    @ Travis Dakin:

    So it's okay with you for the Oilers to lose regular season games and potentially miss the playoffs trying to showcase marginal AHL players as trade bait? The corner stone of proper asset management is not playing players in the NHL before they are ready. If Schremp never becomes an NHL regular, then fine. Only a small percentage of drafted players go on to have long, successful NHL careers.

  • Hippy

    Chris. wrote:

    So it’s okay with you for the Oilers to lose regular season games and potentially miss the playoffs trying to showcase marginal AHL players as trade bait?

    No but it would have been ok with me if they had been doing that for the last 3 years so there would be a really good excuse to miss the playoffs and be looking at a 4th straght year with not much sunshine in the future. Would have been nice to have a few more trading chips.