Schremp vs. Reddox vs. Potulny vs. Brule in the AHL

potulny-front

Much has been made by some fans over the order in which Craig MacTavish gave minutes to forwards who the Oilers called up from the AHL in 2008-09. In order of games played, they ranked as follows:

  1. Liam Reddox: 46
  2. Gilbert Brule: 11
  3. Ryan Potulny: 8
  4. Rob Schremp: 4

I haven’t included J-F Jacques since his AHL time was technically only on a conditioning stint, so the question I’d like to ask is this: based on their AHL play, do these four players belong in this order?

I’ve decided to look at a number of different statistics to try and answer that question. Since each player spent a different amount of time in the AHL, I’ve divided all their numbers by total games played to give a per game rate. We’ll consider goals, points, +/- and Quality of Competition.

Goals Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .543
  2. Reddox: .357
  3. Brule: .333
  4. Schremp: .101

Points Per Game:

  1. Potulny: .886
  2. Reddox: .643
  3. Brule: .615
  4. Schremp: .609

Plus-Minus Per Game

  1. Potulny: -.157
  2. Reddox: -.214
  3. Brule: -.308
  4. Schremp: -.377

Quality of Competition

  1. Reddox: 1.853
  2. Brule: 1.677
  3. Potulny: 1.552
  4. Schremp: 1.355

Summation

The offensive categories and plus/minus all had exactly the same order: Potulny, Reddox, Brule, Schremp. Quality of competition, on the other hand, had Reddox on top by a fair bit, followed by Gilbert Brule, Ryan Potulny, and Rob Schremp.

It isn’t surprising that of the four players, Reddox got the most games: offensively, he tracked behind only Potulny, and the players he was playing against were better. Of the four, he’s also most suited to a role on the fourth-line and killing penalties, followed by Gilbert Brule. Given that a fourth line role is what was available to most of the call-ups, it only makes sense that Reddox would get the lion’s share of the games, with Brule (the youngest of this group) behind him.

As for offensive games, the only surprising thing is that Rob Schremp got called up before Ryan Potulny, since the latter had a far superior season. The splits explain that a little bit; Schremp was better in the first half of the season than he was in the second half. Regardless, after that point Potulny was the player who deserved – the player who had earned – a cameo with the Oilers.

Looking at their AHL achievements, it’s difficult to fault the order that Craig MacTavish placed these players in.  In fact, the only quibble that I would have is that perhaps Ryan Potulny should have gotten a longer look.

  • Hippy

    Robin Brownlee wrote:

    You can run all the numbers you want. I believe the Oilers need to give — whether he’s earned it or not — Schremp the longest look of any bubble prospect during training camp and pre-season and put him in a position to succeed. If he doesn’t, he’s done. I don’t care if that means ham-and-eggers like Potulny and Reddox don’t get a “fair shake.”
    But perhaps I’m overlooking something.

    I agree. Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best. But he's running out of shots with this club, either he's busted his ass this year and is serious about making the jump or he's done with the Oilers organization.

  • Hippy

    Fish wrote:

    @ Ogden Brother:
    Nothing that Liam Reddox has ever done on the ice has equated to substance in my opinion.

    He's a capable plug, that will win you more hockey games then an incapable scorer.

  • Hippy

    Colin wrote:

    Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best.

    Why does Schremp have more potential than Potulny?

    Keep in mind that Ryan Potulny has not only been a consistently good AHL'er, but in his final amateur year, he scored 38 goals in 41 games for the University of Minnesota.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Colin wrote:
    Shremp has the highest potential of the bunch, the rest are 4th liners at best.
    Why does Schremp have more potential than Potulny?
    Keep in mind that Ryan Potulny has not only been a consistently good AHL’er, but in his final amateur year, he scored 38 goals in 41 games for the University of Minnesota.

    Potulny is also 2 years older then Schremp.

    Overall I see them having about the same potential though. With Potulny being the goal scorer and Schremp being the playmaker.

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    You made a refrence to his lack of maturity in the last thread. I wanted to say that he just turned 23. I know that in my work life I saw some, what I percieved to be anyway, injustices done to me. Wether it be less deserving guys getting advanced or whatnot. I was pretty young and may not have handled it well which probably held me development back a year or two. It didn't mean I wasn't good at my job but I may have sulked a time or two. We grow up and mature. I really think his setback last year was a result of that young immaturity. Especially after he showed well in his 4 games. (nobody played good against the Sharks) I think at this point he needs to be mentored for an entire season by the likes of Horcoff and Pisani.

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Basically, though Schremp had the same problem that Potulny had this year: he wasn’t cut out for a bottom six role the way Thoreson, Jacques, Pouliot and Reddox were.

    And that's just what I have been saying. You have to accept the type of player he is. A PP point producer and a moderate contributer. He will never be a Toby Reddox but there is a roll for him on some team in the NHL.
    Ogden Brother wrote:

    Are you sure about that?

    Yes I'm sure. Relative to many of the other young offensive prospects that have come through the NHL. If he's put in the roll that will give him a chance at success then he will thrive. To date he has not got that.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    He’s a capable plug, that will win you more hockey games then an incapable scorer

    He's a dime a dozen. Schremp is a rare talent. If only you could put the two together….

  • Hippy

    jeff wrote:

    Potulny is also 2 years older then Schremp.
    Overall I see them having about the same potential though. With Potulny being the goal scorer and Schremp being the playmaker.

    And do not understate that Potulny has 50 games in the NHL. That is incredibly valuable experience. Who is Schremp's role models on the farm?

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    Are you sure about that?
    Yes I’m sure. Relative to many of the other young offensive prospects that have come through the NHL. If he’s put in the roll that will give him a chance at success then he will thrive. To date he has not got that.

    That's not the point at hand, you said: "He can keep his head above water for a secondary scorer so I can see a roll for him."

    When theirs really no proof he can

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    He’s a capable plug, that will win you more hockey games then an incapable scorer
    He’s a dime a dozen. Schremp is a rare talent. If only you could put the two together….

    Believe what you will, the truth will come out in about 6 weeks.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    And Schremp’s never had a better season than Ryan Potulny put up this year.

    You might be right but what are you basing this on? Just goal totals? I think 'better season' is a lot more subjective than that.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    When theirs really no proof he can

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    Believe what you will, the truth will come out in about 6 weeks.

    And that's what I am looking for, a real chance for him to prove what he can do.

  • Hippy

    @ ChiliChunk:

    I've followed Schremp very closely since he turned pro. In 2006-07, he was an occasional healthy-scratch and one-dimensional player on a good team. In 2007-08 – his best season – he was a good player on a poor team. Potulny was a better player on a worse team this year.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    You made a refrence to his lack of maturity in the last thread.

    Are you sure? I think that was someone else.

    My schtick has been that it isn't personality holding Schremp back, it's just that he doesn't bring enough off of the powerplay.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ ChiliChunk:
    I’ve followed Schremp very closely since he turned pro. In 2006-07, he was an occasional healthy-scratch and one-dimensional player on a good team. In 2007-08 – his best season – he was a good player on a poor team. Potulny was a better player on a worse team this year.

    Again, Potulny was a better player after having close to 50 games in the NHL to learn some things.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:
    Are you sure? I think that was someone else.

    "Mental toughness" you said. HAHA I was paraphrasing

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    If Schremp can’t handle being sent to the AHL, it’s time to pick another career, because he doesn’t have the mental toughness to play at the NHL level.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    When theirs really no proof he can
    Ogden Brother wrote:
    Believe what you will, the truth will come out in about 6 weeks.
    And that’s what I am looking for, a real chance for him to prove what he can do.

    I'll sign up for Oiler camp too, I deserve a chance.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    My schtick has been that it isn’t personality holding Schremp back, it’s just that he doesn’t bring enough off of the powerplay.

    And i think there is a more than likely chance you are right but he hasn't been given the chance to prove that with NHLers and proper NHL mentoring.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    I’ll sign up for Oiler camp too, I deserve a chance.

    HAHA Wouldn't that be a dream come true. If you could do what Schremp can then I sure as hell hope they'd give you a chance.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    When theirs really no proof he can

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    Believe what you will, the truth will come out in about 6 weeks.

    And that’s what I am looking for, a real chance for him to prove what he can do.

    HEAR HEAR!

    In order for Shremp to show his value, he has to be put in a situation to succeed Like Mr. Brownlee stated. He has incredible hands, now imagine those hands feeding the puck to people who can actually do something with it as opposed to the glorified ECHL team he was on last year.

    If he learns to make his moves at speed, he will start backing up the D and give himself more room much like when Nilsson started to figure that out. His skill set suddenly became a threat. And Shremp is bigger than the other mighty mites we have up front at 200lbs. Give him a chance.

  • Hippy

    I want Potulny and Brule to make the Oilers this year, with Pouliot to replace Pisani if/when he gets injured. We've got to clear out some bodies, I see it like pruning a tree. Our tree is unhealthy and bloated, it needs to be maintained – and the tree's roots are our farm clubs, where this all comes from.

    Stoll, Torres, Pisani etc. (depth guys on the 2006 team) came from Roadrunners/Bulldogs when it was a viable club. The current woes on the farm have a direct impact on the top team. There's nothing wrong with playing at the AHL level, it's just that our management yo-yos these guys back and forth from the show to farm, so they don't know where they are on the development curve – so the better ones leave for Europe (ie. The Electric Norseman)or threaten to (red-headed stepchild Liam)

  • Hippy

    IgorUlanov wrote:

    The current woes on the farm have a direct impact on the top team. There’s nothing wrong with playing at the AHL level, it’s just that our management yo-yos these guys back and forth from the show to farm, so they don’t know where they are on the development curve –

    That's just it for Schremp. The farm has been a mess since he arrived. There has been no development for him.

    IgorUlanov wrote:

    Anybody else think Travis Dakin might be Rob Schremp’s Mom?

    I'm his Uncle Daddy twice removed to the fifth power. Damn proud of him I am.

  • Hippy

    ronaldo wrote:

    @ Pro-Schremp side
    Should he get a chance in regular season games no matter what his camp/ preseason look like? Or is his chance camp?

    That would be stupid. He still has to show up.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ Robin Brownlee:
    Not just bloggers, of course; in point of fact I think you’ve mentioned Schremp’s flaws along the way too.
    In any case, I do have three questions for you if you don’t mind:
    1) What makes you think Schremp will bring more offense to the NHL than Potulny?
    2) Where do you see him slotting into the lineup, given the current group already has Gagner, Coglian, Nilsson, O’Sullivan, etc.?
    3) Do you think it’s likely the Oilers deal him this fall?

    — Because Schremp as infinitely more offensive talent than Potulny.
    That said, I don't know if Schremp's remarkable skill and creativity with the puck will ever translate to results at the NHL level. Still, I want to find out. The first step is giving him the chance — top six linemates and minutes and power play time, not grunt work that takes him out of his element — in camp and pre-season with no points in the standings on the line. If he excels, then he gets a chance in regular season. The leash stays as as long performance dictates.
    I want to see Schremp hop over the boards after the coaches have repeatedly told him, "Rob, go out and do what you do. Create. Make something happen. Show us what you've got, kid." If he can't excel under those circumstances, then he can't excel. Experiment over.

    — Until Schremp passes the pre-season test, I don't see him slotting in anywhere. He has to show me something first. Even if Schremp does deliver, then he's caught in a glut of smallish forwards Tambellini has to sort out. That's an issue even without Schremp in the mix.

    — I thought it was likely the Oilers would move him at the last draft, which they tried to do. He's so devalued right now it's no surprise to me there was no interest. Until Schremp shows something, he's available to any team that wants him.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Jonathan Willis wrote:
    My schtick has been that it isn’t personality holding Schremp back, it’s just that he doesn’t bring enough off of the powerplay.
    And i think there is a more than likely chance you are right but he hasn’t been given the chance to prove that with NHLers and proper NHL mentoring.

    The catch is he will also have to do it AGAINST NHLers. Any advantage he should gain from the increased quality of his teamate should be negated from the increased quality of his competition.

    Honestly if you want your argument to hold any kind of water, you need to provide some back up. List out some guys that were healthy scratches in the AHL, and those that put up the kind of #'s that Schremp has and then have translated that into success at the NHL.

  • Hippy

    Travis Dakin wrote:

    Jonathan Willis wrote:
    Are you sure? I think that was someone else.
    “Mental toughness” you said. HAHA I was paraphrasing
    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    If Schremp can’t handle being sent to the AHL, it’s time to pick another career, because he doesn’t have the mental toughness to play at the NHL level.

    That was in reply to the Turkish torture guy; his theory, not mine. But I see what you mean 😉

  • Hippy

    "In order for Shremp to show his value, he has to be put in a situation to succeed "

    Could The Swiss League be that situation?

    AHL Compares:
    Thoresen .941 PPG
    Schremp .792 PPG

    Patrick Thoresen 63 points in 48 games for Lugano
    That equates to 53 pts in 48 games for Rob Schremp, 1.1 PPG