Expected Vs. Actual Save Percentage

Luongo

Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca does a study at the end of each season that attempts to measure difficulty of shots that every NHL goaltender faces. The methodology can be found here, and it’s an interesting look at a statistic that’s largely swayed by team ability.

His results for 2008-09 are out; here’s a look at Western Conference goaltenders this season (all numbers at even-strength, minimum of 30GP over the last two seasons):

Player Name | Expected SV%| Actual SV% | Difference

Nikolai Khabibulin | .902 | .927 | +.025
Roberto Luongo | .906 | .931 | +.025
Jonas Hiller | .906 | .927 | +.021
Pekka Rinne | .907 | .921 | +.014
Chris Mason | .909 | .923 | +.014
Steve Mason | .904 | .917 | +.013
Dwayne Roloson | .909 | .920 | +.011
Dan Ellis | .903 | .911 | +.008
Evgeni Nabokov | .907 | .915 | +.008
Ty Conklin | .908 | .913 | +.005
Josh Harding | .919 | .922 | +.003
Nik Backstrom | .919 | .921 | +.002
Curtis Sanford | .910 | .912 | +.002
Matheiu Garon | .906 | .907 | +.001
Ilya Bryzgalov | .911 | .911 | EV
J-S Giguere | .910 | .905 | -.005
Chris Osgood | .901 | .894 | -.007
Jason Labarbera | .912 | .905 | -.007
Marty Turco | .906 | .898 | -.008
Miikka Kiprusoff | .908 | .899 | -.009
Erik Ersberg | .914 | .904 | -.010
Andrew Raycroft | .916 | .900 | -.016
Peter Budaj | .915 | .896 | -.019
Manny Legace | .911 | .882 | -.029

Some other notables who played fewer games:

Jeff Deslauriers | .913 | .900 | -.013
Curtis McElhinney | .913 | .893 | -.020

No real surprises on that list; goaltenders having bad seasons end up near the bottom as well as the just-plain-bad goaltenders in the league.

  • Hippy

    Ogden Brother wrote:

    From what I’ve seen, Rag fans ragged on Renney over alot of the same things Oiler fans ragged on MacT for… I’d give him 18 months before Oil country turned on him.

    Expect a lot of: "hey, remember when you used to complain because MacTavish did this…" pieces from me if Renney does get hired.

    Actually, expect them regardless. Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Chris wrote:
    Are the OilersNation writers on strike?

    Not on strike, just somewhat busy elsewhere.

    You just scored a TKO with that post on PD! Nice work!

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:

    That was the single best piece I've read on the Flames in a very long time…

    I tip my hat to you sir! When you put you're mind to it Willis; you can spin webs of neagativity more deftley than a giant spider on meth.

    Please don't burn the Oilers in similar fashion till I have a chance to legally acquire some antidepressants.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Ogden Brother wrote:
    From what I’ve seen, Rag fans ragged on Renney over alot of the same things Oiler fans ragged on MacT for… I’d give him 18 months before Oil country turned on him.
    Expect a lot of: “hey, remember when you used to complain because MacTavish did this…” pieces from me if Renney does get hired.
    Actually, expect them regardless. Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

    Yup and yup… Yet for some reason Oil country figured it was being wronged by it's coach.

  • Hippy

    Chris wrote:

    I find it interesting that Gilbert is comfortable enough with his situation in Edmonton to buy a house.

    Where did you hear this?

    @ Chris:
    I agree about Renney. Tambellini clearly stated he wanted an aggressive, emotional team on the ice. Neither of which were present with MacT here. It just doesn't fit.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

    The difference here is MacTavish was able to do the same thing over and over again with little to no positive results for 8 years. Let's be honest, Mac T was only crucified here in his last two years. If he couldn't get the job done, why was it wrong to question his decision making and thought process?

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

    was it common for NHL coaches to lose the ear of their clubs and miss the playoffs for 3 consecutive years in a league where more teams make the playoffs than miss it?

  • Hippy

    Archaeologuy wrote:

    Jonathan Willis wrote:
    Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.
    was it common for NHL coaches to lose the ear of their clubs and miss the playoffs for 3 consecutive years in a league where more teams make the playoffs than miss it?

    That's two different debates.

  • Hippy

    @ Ogden Brother:
    i know, it was a little tongue in cheek.
    All coaches juggle lines and go with guys they trust, I know what Willis was getting at. If the new guy struggles people will say "why did we get rid of MacT for this guy?"
    Thats a lame statement, but it will be made.

  • Hippy

    @ topshelf:
    He bought it just a few days ago… AFTER Tambellini's post season presser. It makes me wonder if Gilbert has had reassurances from management that his spot is secure moving forward.

  • Hippy

    I'd have to think Tom Renney would be a better fit with the Flames than the Oil. Just my opinion.

    Renney's completely different than Keenan, Playfair & Darryl, and might bring a breath of fresh air. I know I've constantly said Brent Sutter will be their next head coach, but if the thought process is that he would be more of the same and the club wants a different type of voice, I'd say Tom Renney is as good a place as any to start. They've tried the young up-and-comer with Playfair with little success, so I can't see them going that way. Marc Habschied may be an acception, but that may be my personal bias as I like him.

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    Willis, I take acception to your "eulogy".

    First, what was "so convenient" about Rhett Warrener's injury. It's not as though he faked an injury so he wouldn't count against the cap. He was waived and would've played in Quad City and not been a cap hit anyways. Am I missing something?

    Secondly, (I'm not even gonna comment on "It's alright, Jarome — not everyone can be Ryan Malone"), the 17th pick they traded for Cammalleri was replaced with another 1st rounder (25th) & a 2nd rounder in the Tanguay trade. They upgraded the player and only moved down 8 spots.

    Thirdly, "Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a first-round pick? Hah! Don Maloney never knew what hit him.
    ". Well Maloney only months earlier moved highly regarded D Keith Ballard (and solid veteran D Nick Boynton) to land Jokinen. Given the option, I'd take Ballard over what they now have.

    Fourth, Dion Phaneuf is 24 years old. So he had a bad year. Does that mean he'll be terrible forever now? I doubt it. He played with broken ribs since February! Why Keenan insisted on overplaying an injured guy, I don't know.

    Fifth, wouldn't you love Regher on YOUR team?

    Sixth, does every 1st round pick have to be a mass point-producer? Does it typically, statistically speaking happen? Are you seriously making fun of the Flames pick the SAME year the Oil took the esteemed Jesse Niinimaki. Well that was a great pick, your right what were the Flames thinking when they took Nystrom over Niinimaki?

    Seventh, the ol' training bra joke? Seriously? Ahhhh…..Oil fan….. so predictable.

  • Hippy

    @ RossCreek:

    Just two questions:

    1) Are you a Flames fan?
    2) Did you seriously expect me to be charitable and even-handed in what was basically an excuse to torch the Flames?

  • Hippy

    […] has decreased for the fifth year in a row or that his save percentage adjusted for team quality is the third-worst among Western Conference starters or that he got even worse during the playoffs, does […]