Trade Hemsky?

Hemsky and Sakic

Jim Matheson floated the idea in his piece this morning, with the Los Angeles Kings being the destination and a package consisting of Dustin Brown and Matt Greene being the return.

Lowetide’s opinion is here; he examines things from an organizational angle and stresses what the benefits would be before saying he doesn’t like the idea. I completely agree with him, but I thought it might be worthwhile to examine the relative offensive production of Brown and Hemsky year by year in the NHL.

Ales Hemsky at 19: 59GP – 6G – 24A – 30PTS (.51 PPG)
Dustin Brown at 19: 31GP – 1G – 4A – 5PTS (.16 PPG)

Ales Hemsky at 20: 71GP – 12G – 22A – 34PTS (.48 PPG)
Dustin Brown at 21: 79GP – 14G – 14A – 28PTS (.35 PPG)

Ales Hemsky at 22: 81GP – 19G – 58A – 77PTS (.95 PPG)
Dustin Brown at 22: 81GP – 17G – 29A – 46PTS (.57 PPG)

Ales Hemsky at 23: 64GP – 13G – 40A – 53PTS (.83 PPG)
Dustin Brown at 23: 78GP – 33G – 27A – 60PTS (.77 PPG)

Ales Hemsky at 24: 74GP – 20G – 51A – 71PTS (.96 PPG)
Dustin Brown at 24: 80GP – 24G – 29A – 53PTS (.66 PPG)

Ales Hemsky at 25: 72G – 23G – 43A – 66PTS (.92 PPG)

Career Totals By Age 24

Ales Hemsky: 349GP – 70G – 195A – 265PTS (.76 PPG)
Dustin Brown: 349GP – 89G – 103A – 192PTS (.55 PPG)

If the Oilers were to make that trade they’d be sending away someone who was a better point producer at age 25 than Pavel Datsyuk, Jarome Iginla, Henrik Sedin and Jason Spezza. They’d be sending away the best offensive talent on the team for a guy who once hit 60 points. It would mean that the best offensive season recorded by anyone on the team, ever, was Shawn Horcoff’s 73 point effort in 2005-06.

It would be a mistake.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    RossCreek wrote:
    Hemsky wouldn’t be at the top of my list to actively shop, but I wouldn’t be at all opposed to the idea.
    But then again, you’re a Flames fan.

    Correct you are Jonathan. That doesn't mean I can't look at things objectively. I'm a hockey fan 1st. I live in the Edmonton area and see, hear & read all. My viewpoints aren't to suggest moves that would make the Oil worse just for spite. Quite the contrary. If that was my MO, I probably wouldn't be here posting, or I'd be posting a lot more ignorant things.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Maybe I’m reading you wrong, but are you suggesting that the Oilers a) move a top-six forward for an F and a D and b) move an F and a D for a top-six forward?
    Because that’s treading water.

    Yes essentially I guess thats what I'm saying. Remember though, I never said I would definately do it. It's all about changing the chemistry & makeup of the team (the "culture" if you will). Its not like those types of moves would guarentee a sideways move (nor is it a guarentee they'd be better off). Tambellini has suggested he wants to change the makeup – a F & D for a F, and a F for a F & D would do just that. It's not as assinine as you make it seem.

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    Personally I believe KLowe sent mixed messages with all of his moves (hardly an Earth-shattering viewpoint). If they were rebuilding, why did they need Visnovsky rather than Stoll & Greene? Especially when they already had Souray who missed most of the previous season. Their D was automatically gonna get better with a healthy Souray, and they shipped out players from their young core (players that were a part of the Cup run) for a 30+ defenseman. Mixed messages indeed. The trade itself wasn't a bad one by any stretch as a hockey move, but wasn't necassarily the right type of move for this organization at that time.

  • Hippy

    RossCreek wrote:

    And it still would be an option to move a D & F for a top 6 F.

    Maybe I'm reading you wrong, but are you suggesting that the Oilers a) move a top-six forward for an F and a D and b) move an F and a D for a top-six forward?

    Because that's treading water.

  • Hippy

    RossCreek wrote:

    Hemsky wouldn’t be at the top of my list to actively shop, but I wouldn’t be at all opposed to the idea.

    But then again, you're a Flames fan.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Ales Hemsky and the 10th overall pick for Dustin Brown, the 5th overall pick and Matt Greene is a steal for the Oilers.

    Yup. So what would even it out the most – adding Moreau, Brule or a 2nd?

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    All of that said, the only way those trades get done is if the team has decided that the only way to move forward is to blow-up the group and rebuild from the ground up

    I don't think that move would create such a drastic blow-up & rebuild. And it still would be an option to move a D & F for a top 6 F. Hemsky's not as "untouchable" as everyone thinks. I know this is all fodder right now, but its interesting nontheless. Hemsky wouldn't be at the top of my list to actively shop, but I wouldn't be at all opposed to the idea.

  • Hippy

    RossCreek wrote:

    Kind of like moving a young faceoff/pk specialist and a young, physical, tough shutdown D for a veteran puck-mover? Not discrediting that trade, but using your logic, the Oil created 2 holes to fill 1 even though they had Souray (who missed most of the previous season), Gilbert & Grebeshkov.

    Which hole is harder to fill:

    – number one defenseman

    or

    – third line checker/PK
    – tough second-pairing defenseman?

    The Oilers let Marty Reasoner go too and Kurt Sauer was signed to a cheap long-term contract despite the fact that he's still better defensively than Greene.

    Trading Hemsky for Brown and Greene would fill two holes at the expense of one; the opposite of the Visnovsky trade. But the hole being created is far more difficult to fill than the holes being fixed. Same question, which hole is harder to fill:

    – number one RW/PP ace

    or

    – top-six power forward
    – shut-down defenseman

    I get the same answer.

  • Hippy

    @ RossCreek:

    For the record, I think Sam Gagner is going to be a better player than Hemsky (<a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2009/03/for-those-of-you-who-feel-sam-gagner.html rel="nofollow">he certainly tracks ahead of him right now). And from a hockey perspective, I think Ales Hemsky and the 10th overall pick for Dustin Brown, the 5th overall pick and Matt Greene is a steal for the Oilers.

    All of that said, the only way those trades get done is if the team has decided that the only way to move forward is to blow-up the group and rebuild from the ground up, and I don't think there's a need to do that or an appetite among either fans or management.

    Trading Hemsky for Brown is a significant downgrade in the here and now; Hemsky's the better player and probably always will be the better player, and for the Oilers to compete next year they need someone of his ilk; down the road Gagner may well outscore him but he isn't there yet.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Moving Hemsky for Brown fills one hole by opening a new one; good teams don’t do that.

    Kind of like moving a young faceoff/pk specialist and a young, physical, tough shutdown D for a veteran puck-mover? Not discrediting that trade, but using your logic, the Oil created 2 holes to fill 1 even though they had Souray (who missed most of the previous season), Gilbert & Grebeshkov. Now everyone says that 1 of their puckmoving D is expendable and they need a 3rd line faceoff/pk guy and a physical shutdown D. Perhaps your right… good teams don't do that.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    is far and away the best powerplay option the team has.

    Not disagreeing, but don't you think Gagner could fill that void to a certain extent. Surely within a couple of years he wouldn't be a drastic downgrade from what Hemsky is at this very moment.

  • Hippy

    What if the deal also had a swap of 1st round picks (10th for 5th) or a salary dump from the Oil to LA (in the 2 mil range-Nilsson)?
    Perhaps with the Kings moving their captain, they'd be interested in bringing in Chopper in the deal.

  • Hippy

    @ RossCreek:

    This is a blue-collar town that wants a hard-nosed, hard-working team.

    This is a town accustomed to winning; they want a winning team. I didn't dismiss the idea out of hand, but Ales Hemsky is the only player on the team with a track record of high-end offense every single season. He's not even 26 and he can outscore tough opposition and is far and away the best powerplay option the team has.

    Moving Hemsky for Brown fills one hole by opening a new one; good teams don't do that.

  • Hippy

    @ Jonathan Willis:
    For the record, I did state I'm not sure I'd do it.
    And they do have some players with skill similar to Hemsky style-wise, but none like Brown, so I'm not sure that argument holds significant water. This is a blue-collar town that wants a hard-nosed, hard-working team. Brown & Greene fit that mold a lot more than the flashy Hemsky does. I know most Oil fans wouldn't think twice about a move like this before dismissing it, but I'd argue its something to at least think about.

  • Hippy

    Not sure I would do it, but it isn't as "retarded" as it sounds. Both Brown & Greene are young and signed long-term to similar cap-friendly contracts as Hemsky.

    Ales Hemsky 3years left @ 4.1
    Dustin Brown 5 years left @ 3.175
    Matt Greene 5 years left @ 2.95

    When Hemsky's deal is up, he'll be looking for a hefty raise (still doesn't mean you HAVE to move him at this point, but a year from now, it might not sound so crazy).

    Greene is exactly whats missing on the backend and would be a great replacement for a guy like Staios (who IMO should be moved).

    Brown is also exactly what the Oil need up front.

    With Gagner already in the mix, Hemsky may not be as "untouchable" as everyone thinks. They bring similar skill sets. Gagner could even be slid into Hemsky's RW spot on the #1 line (depends on how they view him long term – C or W).

    Definately something to think about. Not something I'd dismiss so easily one way or the other. I'm not sure if that was just an example by Matheson, or if he's getting this info from the team to float around out there to see what kind of reaction it would receive. Matheson's pretty connected so who knows. Brownlee may be able to shed some light on if that kind of thing regularily happens or not (I'd assume it occasionally happens).

  • Hippy

    finally some sanity.

    the Oilers definitely need a Morrow, Brown, Doan type player in the organization (who wouldnt want one?) but giving up a key elite player at a great price who can be part of a core for almost a decade to come is retarded. its almost to the point where fans/media are so impatient (i dont blame them to a degree) that the idea of shifting around parts like impulsive credit card shoppers is what gives them a moment of happiness before pooping their smelly Edmonton diaper again.

    this team needs to build a core of dependent/consistent players. that starts with Hemsky. Penner and Horcoff are brutal mistakes in that regard with a projected shrinking cap. theyre tweeners between passengers and drivers. skew the perspective all you want. theyre not players that are going to carry a team to a cup at their price. and the jury is still out on the ceiling of Gagner and Cogliano as they mature.