Hindsight

guesshwo

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and many of us would look a hell of a lot smarter if we were able to go back in time and change some of our more dubious decisions. Remember that high school picture that you hoped would be quickly forgotten? Remember how you used to dress in those days? Did you think your favorite striped blue shirt would be gazed upon by millions of people on the internet years later when you became a massive celebrity? Looking back, probably not. 

Yes, hindsight is often 20/20, particularly when it comes to hairstyles, tattoos and free agent signings.

If we could go back in time, many of us would do things a little differently. Considering what NHL players are signing for these days, you wonder if some teams also wish that they could go back in time and wait until August 1st to sign guys, rather that having made all their moves on July 1st. It’s way easier to say today how money should have been spent than it was a mere 30 days ago. But then again, who am I to talk? I once said that the Oilers won the Pouliot/Jacques for Parise trade right after it happened. Could I have been more right?

When you look at how frugal teams have become in the past few weeks, you can’t help but wonder why so many felt the need to overspend a few weeks ago.

Unrestricted free agents generally get overpaid

It’s a fact. And it isn’t just the Oilers who need to overpay to get a player to come here. Controversial columnist, Larry Brooks wrote on July 26th that the Oilers were being desperate in their need to overpay star players to join the team.

Here’s a snippet of what he wrote:

Don’t the Oilers get it? Their city is the last place in North America (other than presumably Ottawa and perhaps Atlanta) that Heatley wants to live, and their team is the last one in the NHL (insert a disclaimer or two) for which he wants to play.

Enough already with the bribery and the convincing. The team and the city look more than desperate. They are beginning to appear pathetic with their continued pursuit of the player who for good reason has become hockey’s most disdained individual.

We know. The Oilers have to overpay in order to entice players of Heatley’s on-ice pedigree to come to their city, and that’s the reason why Nik Khabibulin was able to get an over-35 contract worth $15 million over four years on July 1.

What I find laughable here is Brooks’ suggestion the Oilers have to overpay, because of the City. C’mon Larry – wake the f**k up. In the City that never sleeps all the Rangers seem to do is over pay guys to report to the team.

Scott Gomez gets $7.3 million a year for five years. Chris Drury got $7 million, Wade Redden is a $6.5 million cap hit on the books and injury-prone Marian Gaborik takes home a cool $7.5 million. Larry, do you really think these aren’t overpayments too?

The fact is teams overpay for UFAs all the time, especially in the first few days of July, and normally throughout the summer. But not this year. This year it would seem the well has dried up.

Looking back now…

I wonder if the Habs are re-thinking offering Brian Gionta $5 million a year, when it looks like they could get Alex Tanguay for less than half of that now? Mike Comrie made $4 million last year, and while he struggled with only 10 goals, the three previous seasons he tallied 21, 20 and 30. He turns 29 in September and he’ll probably sign for $1.5 million at the most.

Proven checkers like Mike Peca, Manny Malhotra and Blair Betts are still on the market, and if they get a deal it could be close to $750,000 or less. I spoke with Betts yesterday at a golf tourney and the phone hasn’t been ringing at all lately. He is a proven veteran, who kills penalties and is good in the room, yet no interest. I know the Oilers have too many contracts but signing Betts to a one-year deal for $650,000 wouldn’t hurt. Hell, some veterans might accept two-way deals at this point, just to get to camp. I bet Dominic Moore is regretting not signing the Leafs offer of close to $2 million back in June, because when he signs it will be for half of that.

I think many teams blew their wad in early July, and while they might have interest in a player, they simply have no money left to spend today. One positive should be that fans will see a lot of desperate players playing just to maintain, or get a new contract next year. That should make the dog days of the season a bit more competitive – or at least you would think it would.

Did the Oilers over pay for Khabibulin? You bet they did. But it is hilarious to suggest that it is only cities like Edmonton desperate to overpay players into bring them into the organization. New York City – the “supposed” best city in North America overpays players more often than most.

And they win all the time don’t they?

  • oilerdiehard

    So waiting was good because you get some nice bargains?

    I can certainly buy that. The Oil then at this point would seem to silly not to sign a guy like Malhotra or even a Betts that would go a long way to helping shore up major weak areas on this team. Like face offs, PK, experienced center in the bottom six etc…

    Since the start of this off-season I (as well as many Oiler fans) have wanted just that as much and maybe more than that scorer.

    But I get the feeling when Tambo was talking that they plan to do nothing else on this front. They are lucky at this point there are a few guys that fit the bill still floating around and should come at a cheaper price. But they may just not bother.

  • Ender the Dragon wrote:

    What is this guy’s name? Inquiring minds want to know. Tambo was asked about Blair Betts straight out and you’d have thought Tambo was auditioning for ‘So You Think You Can Dance’ the way he went around that question.

    I talked with Betts yesterday the Oilers have not contacted him or his agent to this point.

    DSG wrote:

    Cogliano is Todd Marchant part 2 and should be traded now before other teams realize that.

    You are way off here. The only comparison is that in their second full season they both had 38 points. Marchant had 19 goals his second year, then got 20 in 2003 before striking it rich with Columbus. He hasn't reached ten goals since.

    Marchant is way grittier than Cogliano, but Cogliano has way more skill. Sure he missed breakaways his first year like Marchant, but he didn't last year. Cogliano has way more natural skill. Don't be surprised if he surpasses Marchant's career high of 20 goals this season.

  • d.visscher

    I don't care what anybody says the Oilers are not going to be a playoff team with the current roster they have, is the management fooling themselves? didn't they have a plan B if Heatley did not sign? all there is are excuses and window dressing "The Future is bright for the Oliers, or the year before that which is my favorite Kevin Lowe's "We all have egg on our face", Well wipe it off and go after someone else.

  • gdawg

    @ d.visscher:
    the egg never stuck to lowe's face. the guy is covered in teflon. good timing last year for lowe to be "promoted". Looked more like a lets get this guys hands off the steering wheel before everything is totally f@#ked up move.

  • Librarian Mike

    David S wrote:

    I believe the kids these days use the phrase “top cheddar”.

    The best expression I've heard is "top shelf, where dad hides the porno!"

    I have no idea where I heard it, but to this day I laugh whenever I see the goalie's water bottle fly off the net.

  • gdawg

    ScubaSteve wrote:

    d.visscher wrote:
    I don’t care what anybody says
    Then why are you on a blog site, reading and posting comments?

    sounds like d. visscher isnt wearing rose colored glasses like most people. He's calling it the way he sees it, and i couldnt agree more. The team we see now doesn't have the grit or talent to do any damage in the conference, let alone the division.

  • West Coast Oil

    I think people tend to forget it takes 2 teans to trade. If no one is trading players of value for dead weight then what else can Tambellini do? Force Atlanta to trade Kovy for Schremp, Nillson and Staois?
    Or the other great suggestion send players to the minors so we can sign someone else for several years and still stay right up to the cap before it falls next year?
    Unfortunately Tambo is doing the right thing by letting the contracts run their course so we can get rid of them. Our players are still young and I would rather keep a Nilson at 2 mil and hope he produces this year than send him down pay his full salary sign another player and hope he produces so you dont waste more money there.

  • gdawg

    @ Batman34:
    is it the divisions they are in or is nashville just a little better than the oilers? Or maybe its the half a dozen games or so every season the oilers seem to piss away.

  • David S

    DanMan wrote:

    Hahahahah Tambellini just made Tencer his bitch!

    Just heard the interview on the Oilers site. I was imagining little Dan crying just a little bit as Tambellini responded. He (Tambo) sounded pretty pissed when Dan asked him to go over the Heatley trade. I bet Dan sent apology flowers to Steve's house this morning.

  • Phil

    chiming in quite late, just wanted to say great piece by you JG.

    i heard your comments on Brooksy the other day on Just a Game. truer words have never been spoken.

    dude is a f*cking clown.

  • HOZ

    Oilers look like fools for the contracts they have handed out or have taken on. We have over paid on far too many guys. This isn't just one or two guys.

    Horcoff 6.5 (Lowe negotiated this after downing a bottle of rye, I am sure)
    Pisani 2.5
    Penner 4.25
    Souray 5.5 (now)
    Lubomir 7 (we didn't give this but we did take it)
    Staios 2.9 (He was a horse in his time but this contract was too much for a 6-8th guy)
    Gilbert 3.5 (5.5 next season)

    – Too many soft, unproductive, or oft-injured guys there.

    Now we are paying 35 year old Khabibulin 3.75. Hope he stays healthy!!

    These contracts didn't need