Springfield Falcons Scoring Numbers

minard

I recently received an Excel file from Gabriel Desjardins (of Behind the Net). He’d run my quality of competition method for the entire AHL, and was sending me the results. He also included the 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 scoring breakdowns for all of the players; what follows is the even-strength and powerplay scoring for the Springfield Falcons forwards.

Also included are new Falcons Chris Minard and Kip Brennan.

5-on-5 Scoring

  • Jordan Eberle: 1G – 4A – 5PTS (.556 pts/gm)
  • Ryan Potulny: 18G – 16A – 34PTS (.486 pts/gm)
  • Ryan Stone: 10G – 25A – 35PTS (.455 pts/gm)
  • Chris Minard: 11G – 11A – 22PTS (.407 pts/gm)
  • Liam Reddox: 2G – 3A – 5PTS (.357 pts/gm)
  • Slava Trukhno: 4G – 12A – 16PTS (.286 pts/gm)
  • Bryan Lerg: 6G – 5A – 11PTS (.262 pts/gm)
  • Rob Schremp: 2G – 16A – 18PTS (.261 pts/gm)
  • Charles Linglet: 5G – 10A – 15PTS (.259 pts/gm)
  • Gilbert Brule: 4G – 6A – 10PTS (.256 pts/gm)
  • Carl Corazzini: 10G – 10A – 20PTS (.250 pts/gm)
  • Colin McDonald: 7G – 10A – 17PTS (.221 pts/gm)
  • Derek Bekar: 4G – 4A – 8PTS (.200 pts/gm)
  • Shane Willis: 1G – 5A – 6PTS (.188 pts/gm)
  • Guillaume Lefebvre: 4G – 9A – 13PTS (.186 pts/gm)
  • Tyler Spurgeon: 4G – 9A – 13PTS (.178 pts/gm)
  • Geoff Paukovich: 4G – 3A – 7PTS (.152 pts/gm)
  • Tim Sestito: 4G – 2A – 6PTS (.118 pts/gm)
  • Ryan O’Marra: 1G – 6A – 7PTS (.113 pts/gm)
  • Kip Brennan: 1G – 1A – 2PTS (.091 pts/gm)

What I See:

First off, the caveats with Jordan Eberle. He was playing decidedly weak opposition, and he played in only nine games. That said, his AHL debut was very, very impressive and while he’s still a dark horse he could force his way on to the Oilers. For a number of reasons, I hope he doesn’t (age, injury risk, CBA implications, too many small, offensive forwards as it is) but he might.

Potulny, Stone and Minard are all going to make serious pushes for a roster spot. It’s important to remember that Minard played 20 games for the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins a year ago – and I don’t think anyone will argue that their forward corps was a weak one. All three guys should be in contention for NHL games.

As much as defensive issues hold Rob Schremp back, he just doesn’t score at even-strength. He isn’t close to guys like Potulny, or even guys like Reddox; instead he’s lumped in with disappointing forwards like Bryan Lerg and Slava Trukhno. He needs to bring offense in all situations, not just with the man advantage.

Gilbert Brule fairs badly by this measure, and that leads me to think that if he cracks the roster next year he’ll put up similar results to what he did in Columbus.

In all likelihood, Guillaume Lefebvre remains a better hockey player – if not a better fighter – than Kip Brennan.

I’ll acknowledge that Ryan O’Marra probably didn’t get much ice-time, but bringing less offense than Tim Sestito is never a good thing.

5-on-4 Scoring

  • Chris Minard: 19G – 8A – 27PTS (.500 pts/gm)
  • Jordan Eberle: 2G – 2A – 4PTS (.444 pts/gm)
  • Ryan Potulny: 13G – 11A – 24PTS (.343 pts/gm)
  • Rob Schremp: 3G – 16A – 19PTS (.275 pts/gm)
  • Gilbert Brule: 6G – 3A – 9PTS (.231 pts/gm)
  • Shane Willis: 4G – 3A – 7PTS (.219 pts/gm)
  • Liam Reddox: 2G – 1A – 3PTS (.214 pts/gm)
  • Ryan Stone: 6G – 6A – 12PTS (.156 pts/gm)
  • Slava Trukhno: 3G – 4A – 7PTS (.125 pts/gm)
  • Carl Corazzini: 1G – 9A – 10PTS (.125 pts/gm)
  • Bryan Lerg: 6G – 5A – 11PTS (.119 pts/gm)
  • Derek Bekar: 3G – 1A – 4PTS (.100 pts/gm)

On this list, players with less than .100 pts/gm were assumed to have received minimal time and thus excluded.

What I See:

Chris Minard, a very effective even-strength scorer, is also a beast on the powerplay. The goal total in particular is eye-catching; Minard scored more powerplay goals per game (.351) than most players had points. Minard’s numbers stand out so much, at least in part, because he was on a much better powerplay unit in Wilkes-Barre than existed in Springfield.

The sample-size caveat continues to apply to Jordan Eberle, but whatever this kid’s weaknesses I do believe he will bring scoring to the professional game.

Rob Schremp’s bad year extended to the powerplay; at a guess, the biggest reason for the drop in his overall numbers was because the powerplay was so poor. Of regulars, only Ryan Potulny outperformed Schremp on this rather tepid unit.

Ryan Stone’s AHL numbers probably don’t reflect his overall value: like most AHL’ers, he isn’t a powerplay guy at the NHL level so these numbers are almost irrelevant.

  • Hippy

    humantorch wrote:

    oilerdiehard wrote:
    Prendergast said
    Stopped reading right there.

    Why because he is in charge of all things farm team related? The Falcons GM & President basically seemed to echo KP's comments in his blog. That Arsene and Minard were moves made specifically to strengthen the Falcons this upcoming season. The fat contracts both got on the AHL portion of their deal would seem to reflect that as well.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    At 23 years old, Rob Schremp hasn’t proven himself as anything other than a powerplay specialist.

    Just wondering if a roster spot for this type of player is worth it? Playing a PP guy for 6-8 minutes a game, compared to those same 6-8 minutes going to a goon?

    We see it with D-men, (Kyle Quincey, Cam Barker) why not a forward?

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    @ Death Metal Nightmare:
    Obviously past results don’t foretell future results.
    But past results are the best indicator we have of future results, wouldn’t you agree?
    In any case, past results tell us that Chris Minard is going to threaten for a roster spot in TC.

    Prendergast said in a radio interview after the Minard signing. That it was strictly a move to improve the Falcons next season. He said Minards skating is okay at the AHL level. But it needs some work to get to a level to be in the NHL.

    I suppose a great camp or a rash of injuries could definitely change that thinking. But it looks like he was the big fish signing to try and turn things around for Springfield. There was talk also in that interview about Minard being great with the young guys and sets an excellent example of working every game and practice etc…

  • Hippy

    @ Death Metal Nightmare:

    Obviously past results don't foretell future results.

    But past results are the best indicator we have of future results, wouldn't you agree?

    In any case, past results tell us that Chris Minard is going to threaten for a roster spot in TC.

  • Hippy

    CurtisS wrote:

    When you say Schremp cant score at ev strenght it just makes you look bad. He has already proved he can.

    Well, when he hasn't done it two out of three years in the AHL, it makes him look bad.

    At 23 years old, Rob Schremp hasn't proven himself as anything other than a powerplay specialist.

    Your mileage may vary but that's the truth.

  • Hippy

    Ya, Eberle would really have to blow everyone away at TC to have a shot at making the team this year. Even if he did make it but did not play meaningful minutes it would really be a waste of a year of a cheap ELC. BTW JW, is not Potulny's skating one of the big factors holding him back from being in the NHL or is that a bit overblown?

  • Hippy

    to borrow a phrase from feminists, "anatomy is not destiny" – Statistics are not destiny. bring on TC and 2009, not past season projections as if they tell the exact future. determinism is for baseball. not hockey.

  • Hippy

    Jonathan Willis wrote:

    Tyler wrote:

    What did Schremp’s ES numbers look like in his good year in the AHL? Do you know?
    LT had Schremp’s EV numbers at 8-20-28 over 65 games played (Schremp played 78); that works out to .431 ppg but that seems high. I will check for the whole season in the near future.

    When you say Schremp cant score at ev strenght it just makes you look bad. He has already proved he can.

    With stats people its always what have you done for me lately UNLESS YOUR SHAWN HORCOFF than its well look what i did a year ago 😛

  • Hippy

    In my professional opinion* Schremp's skill set seems best suited to complement other high end offensive players. The guy wont make a lot of things happen by himself, but he seems to be able to get the puck to the best players in a place where they can do some damage. That's what I saw in a very short time. I also still believe that the negative way he was dealt with by the worst coach in the NHL over the last couple years stunted his development. He's gonna get his blank slate and the ability to start new again. Let's see what happens.

    *not actually a professional

  • Hippy

    Am I tired of Schremp, DUH!!! His article really said it all. This year paly him on the pwoer play and against weak opposition and hope you can sucker someone in to giving you something for him.

  • Hippy

    Tyler wrote:

    What did Schremp’s ES numbers look like in his good year in the AHL? Do you know?

    LT had Schremp's EV numbers at 8-20-28 over 65 games played (Schremp played 78); that works out to .431 ppg but that seems high. I will check for the whole season in the near future.

  • Hippy

    @ Tyler:

    His goal scoring was 23TOT/14PP/9EV. If I were to assume the same split for his assists, we'd be talking the following:

    EV: 9G – 21A – 30PTS (.385 PPG)
    PP: 14G – 32A – 46PTS (.590 PPG)

    I'll track down the actual splits, although I don't have time this morning, but I'd be very surprised if they were markedly different.

  • Hippy

    Minard seems like a solid depth guy, why did the Pens let him go?

    I hope for good things from Eberle, but as you say it wouldn't be the best timing for him to force his way on the team yet.