How it plays out: 2010 Mock Draft

TORONTO - APRIL 13: Deputy Commissioner of the NHL Bill Daly announces top pick to the Edmonton Oilers during the NHL Draft Lottery Drawing at the TSN Studio April 13, 2010 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Abelimages / Getty Images for NHL)

LOS ANGELES — After Tyler and Taylor, then what?

While there’s no doubt Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall will be the top two picks at the 2010 Entry Draft, there’s plenty of debate about who fits where in the next 28 slots in the first round.

Based on the needs of teams, conversations I’ve had with scouts and NHL reporters and educated guesswork, here’s how I see the top-30 shaping up at the Staples Center Friday.

TOP 10

1. Edmonton — TYLER SEGUIN. Oilers GM Steve Tambellini has kept his cards close to the vest in an attempt to get something from Boston to pass on Taylor Hall, but I think the slick pivot from Plymouth is his guy.

2. Boston (from Toronto) — TAYLOR HALL. GM Peter Chiarelli hasn’t stated a preference between Seguin and Hall, but I say he wants the big left-winger from Windsor. He’ll give Tambellini something to get him.

3. Florida — ERIK GUDBRANSON. New GM Dale Tallon made waves on Tuesday by getting the 15th pick from Boston for Nathan Horton. He’ll keep this one and I’m thinking Gudbranson is his man.

4. Columbus — CAM FOWLER. GM Scott Howson has been working the phones because he’s willing to move down if he can get an asset to do it. If Howson can’t swing something, Fowler fits his needs for a puck-mover.

5. New York Islanders — BRETT CONNOLLY. Despite playing just 16 games with Prince George because of a hip injury, Connolly is a top-three talent. I can’t see Islanders GM Garth Snow laying off him.

6. Tampa Bay — RYAN JOHANSEN. I can see new Lightning GM Steve Yzerman taking a long look at super-skilled RW Nino Niederreiter, but my hunch is he’ll take the big, rangy centre from the Winterhawks.

7. Carolina — NINO NIEDERREITER. I don’t see how Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford can pass on a goal-scorer like the Portland right-winger, although getting defenceman Brandon Gormley here would be tempting.

8. Atlanta — BRANDON GORMLEY. If Carolina doesn’t take Niederreiter, Thrashers GM Rick Dudley will, but I’m thinking he’ll happily "settle" for the versatile Moncton rearguard.

9. Minnesota — MIKAEL GRANLUND. Smallish centre led all Finnish Elite League rookies in scoring (13-27-40) with HIFK Helsinki and the Wild can certainly use some offensive creativity in the middle.

10. New York Rangers — ALEXANDER BURMISTROV. Barrie centre has the sizzling offensive flair that could make him a big hit on Broadway. I don’t see GM Glen Sather being able to resist.

THE SECOND TIER

11. Dallas — JEFF SKINNER. An off-the-board pick, given his No. 34 ranking by CSS, but moved 13 spots from mid-term. Kitchener winger had 20 goals and 33 points in OHL playoffs. He can flat-out score.

12. Anaheim — DYLAN MCILRATH. The Ducks need a big, nasty defenceman to fill the void left by Chris Pronger, and the six-foot-four, 215-pounder from Moose Jaw is tough as nails and mean as hell.

13. Phoenix (from Calgary) — DEREK FORBORT. GM Don Maloney will have to wait on the six-foot-five blueliner because he’s committed to the U of North Dakota for 2010, but he’s a tempting pick here.

14. St. Louis — JACK CAMPBELL. Unless somebody falls out of the top 10 into his lap, I can’t see old goaltender John Davidson passing up a crack at a quality stopper, and Campbell is certainly that.

15. Florida (from Boston) — AUSTIN WATSON. If Tallon keeps this pick, I see Watson, a six-foot-three left-winger who started the season with Hall in Windsor and finished it in Peterborough, as being a fit.

16. Ottawa — VLADIMIR TARASENKO. Stocky right winger has two seasons in the KHL on his resume at 18 years old and has excelled despite limited ice time. He’s a talent.

17. Colorado — NICK BJUGSTAD. Big pivot scored 29 goals and had 60 points in just 25 games with Blaine High School in Minnesota. He’s a long-term project who could be worth the wait.

18. Nashville — EMERSON ETEM. The Predators could use the kind of offence the speedy Etem, who scored 37 goals as a rookie with the Medicine Hat Tigers, brings to the table.

19. Los Angeles — BEAU BENNETT. Under-valued at No. 32 in CSS rankings, Bennett had 120 points as a rookie with Penticton of the BCJHL. The big right-winger will attend Denver University next season.

20. Pittsburgh — MARK PYSYK. This smallish blueliner from the Edmonton Oil Kings is ranked higher than this by CSS despite having his season cut short by a broken foot. Not a "big-bang" pick.

THIRD-STRINGERS

21. Detroit — KIRILL KABANOV. He’s a top-10 talent but a wildcard in terms of off-ice issues and maturity. Wouldn’t it be like GM Ken Holland and the Red Wings to set him straight and steal him here?

22. Phoenix — TYLER PITLICK. A big forward who can play centre or wing, Pitlick led Minnesota State freshmen with 19 points in 38 games. In 2008-09, he had 62 points in 27 games with Centennial HS.

23. Buffalo — JARRED TINORDI. Has the bloodlines as the son of former NHLer Mark Tinordi. He’s a six-foot-six defenceman who captained the U.S. Under-18 team. CSS has him grossly underrated at No. 38.

24. Atlanta (from New Jersey) — EVGENY KUZNETZOV. Ranked No. 3 by CSS among European skaters, Kuznetzov has more skill than his numbers (2-7-9 in 35 games) with Chelyabinsk in Russia showed.

25. Vancouver — QUINTON HOWDEN. Moose Jaw center moved up 10 spots to No. 19 from his CSS mid-term ranking. Scored 28-37-65 in 65 games with the Warriors. Skates well for his size, like a Ryan Kesler.

26. Washington — RILEY SHEAHAN. He dropped 17 spots from his CSS mid-term ranking as No. 5, but the lanky Notre Dame centre projects as a solid two-way pivot.

27. Montreal — JONATHAN MERRILL. A puck-mover with size at six-foot-three, Merrill spent 2009-10 with the U.S. Under-18 team. He’s a project, as he’s committed to the University of Michigan next season.

28. San Jose — JOHN MCFARLAND. Sudbury forward was ranked No. 10 by CSS at mid-term, but had a bad season and dropped five spots. He isn’t a big scorer, but he can skate and he plays a physical game.

29. Anaheim (from Philadelphia) — TYLER TOFFOLI. Undersized centre had 37 goals and 79 points despite a brutal start to the season with the Ottawa 67s. Projects as a two-way type with some offensive upside.

30. Chicago — CALVIN PICKARD. The top-ranked NA goaltender is the big reason the woeful Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL hit double-digits for wins. His .914 saves percentage was miraculous on a team this bad.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

    • Tracie

      I agree! I’m even working harder this week and it’s still not going fast! ugh!

      I’m still holding out hope that we can get both top picks! hehe!

      Signed;
      Dreaming!

  • striker

    Boston will take a D-Man. Handshake agreement with FLA to leave Hall or Seguin on the table. How else can you explain the Panthers bending over and taking it on the Horton deal.

  • Ducey

    Man, you went out on limb a couple of times there Brownlee.

    I think hope you are right and the Oilers get something to take Seguin. But with the Horton move and the fact the Bruins appear to be trying to move Savard, I think they are getting ready to welcome Seguin.

    And Kabanov to the Wings at 21? No way. Their skill is finding diamonds in the rough. He is a headcase and they like character. No one will take him in the first round.

    My dream would be Seguin with a prospect (Colburne) from Boston. A trade of Penner or Hemmer to Columbus for their 4th. Then a pick of Connelly at 4, and 2 D men in the second round. A flyer on a Russian at 61. And a goalie in the 4th.

    As I say its not realistic but you never know.

      • I would be willing to do that deal. If we are in a total gut here, starting with a fresh defence man or another big forward would be a good start. I haven’t watched Connolly play, but he must be a talent if he was a top 3 guy all year for being injured.

        • I dont know. Maybe I’m just too big of a Hemsky Fan to see him go for a juniour kid who missed a whole year with a hip injury.

          Hemsky is reaching the age where forwards hit their prime years. I’m biased here though.

          • Crackenbury

            I think the talk of Hemsky wanting out of Edmonton is overblown, especially with Quinn now out of the picture. I expect the Oilers to try and extend Hemsky’s contract if his return from injury works out.

            Hemsky is still a young guy with deep roots in Edmonton. Retaining your draft picks like Gagner, Cogliano, Eberle, POS and Hall/Seguin is the way to build this team and have players want to play in this city.

          • striker

            I’m also in agreement with you….I wait until next summer and try to re-up Hemsky before next season to another 5 yrs or so…if he won’t sign on next summer then move him for the best deal.

            I don’t understand why some believe that the team needs to completely gut the team in a rebuild. A 26 yr old skilled guy would work just find during a rebuild.

          • The pressure cant be all on the kids. The team fell apart last year without Hemsky, I expect the same next year if he’s dealt. The guy is the best contract on the team, I know TUG was talking about maximizing roster value yesterday, losing Hemsky means losing a very good player at great price.

            He has 2 years left. The team should at least get to the point where they can talk extension before trading him.

            My only exeption here was the hypothetical “Oilers get the 2nd overall pick” trade. After #2, there isnt anyone I’d trade Hemsky for unless a lot more was coming back this way.

    • Gerald R. Ford

      I have to agree re: Seguin. I mean, the logic doesn’t work.

      Robin, if you’re convinced that the Oilers want Seguin, then surely Chiarelli is equally convinced. So, why would he throw Tambo a bone to pass Hall up? At this point, I’d be DARING the Oilers to take Hall. With Horton in Boston now, it’s win-win for the Bruins. I mean, if Tambo wants Seguin, but can’t get any candy from Chiarelli, is he just going to draft Hall to save face? I openly declare my sheer ignorance of the situation, if I’m missing something, but I just don’t see why the Bruins would have to give up any asset to get Hall, if Seguin is Tambo’s boy.

  • Robin,

    Everyone other than the Edmonton media say they would be shocked if the Oilers don’t draft Hall. Not asking for specifics on deals or anything, but what’s your vibe in regards to who Tambellini will get out of Boston to leave Hall on the table? What’s your gut say?

    Matheson has suggested Wheeler a few times, but would Seguin + Wheeler appease Oiler fans when it comes to passing on Hall? I’m not so sure. Not that the Oilers care what fans think anyway, of course.

  • i dont think the Wings take Kabanov. taking Bimbo’s doesnt seem to fit their characteristics. if it happens, it will be interesting to see how it turns out. id expect them to take someone more cerebral and versatile.

    ps – what can Boston swap with EDM that isnt money based? next years TOR pick? 😉

  • Jodes

    It will be interesting to see what other deals the Oilers will pull off to try and grab someone else in the 1st round.

    I know many are pulling for Hall to be here, but I think Seguin’s what this team needs the most, and thats a legit #1 center.

    If it means him spending another year in junior, so be it. No need to rush.

  • Jodes

    RB you are either going to look like a mind reader or a chump. Matheson, Stauffer, Spector, Bobby Mac Dreger all think the Oil will pick Hall. So either you can read Tambo’s mind or you have some inside info that no one else has. I think you are the last guy holding on to the “Oil pick Seguin” mindset, good for you “if your right”. From the Boston trade them getting Horton i see that as they Know Edmonton will take Hall so they made there trade for a winger, now they will trade Savard to the Bruins for Kaberle and draft Seguin to play centre.

  • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

    Robin

    Where were you when the Bruins traded for Nathan Horton?(A winger) Not only that they just traded away the #15 that a lot of people thought would be reserved for getting Taylor Hall.

    Either this list was compiled before that deal or your out to lunch on this Seguin thing.

    Just remember…You stated that Seguin would be the guy unless he managed to run away to join the circus.

    I think the circus is in town this week.

  • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

    Boston adds a winger and look to move Savard. To me that would mean they know they aren’t getting Hall so they get Horton, they know they are getting Seguin so open up a center spot.

    Am I the only one?

      • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

        Well I’m not to sure how reliable Jim Murphy from nhl.com is, but he was on Gregor’s show saying the have interest in Campbell. Maybe something is there? 3-way?

        Then there is the talk of Savard for Kaberle, but I just can’t see why Savard waives his NTC to go there.

      • Kaberle that’s what’s going around (I’m sure everyone saw that from Dreger). Savard and Kessel reunited and it feels so good. I think Charilli saw what Edmonton wanted to lay off Hall and he just said no friggen way and found another deal for his winger, he then trades Savard to fill that D spot and drafts Seguin to fill the centre spot smart managment.

      • I didn’t realize that BOS was even shopping Savard. He was a free agent this upcoming summer & they signed him. He was a pretty important part of their team when he wasn’t injured, I can’t see why they would trade him. They were within 1 game of making it to the conference finals. I just don’t buy it.

        Maybe they picked up Horton to try & get rid of Ryder?

        • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

          They would try get rid of Ryder regardless wouldn’t they?

          Rumors have it that Savard has been on the block since the end of the season. Not sure if that’s regular season, Boston’s season or playoffs.

          • @ Archaeologuy

            Horton has always had the potential, but imagine if he had Savard passing him the puck. Could be just like Phil Kessel. That’s all I’m saying.

            If Savard is being shopped, I wouldn’t know why. Colborne is just out of college, probably not ready to jump in & replace Savard. If I was a Bruins fan I would be more than a little upset we traded out #1 center for a 18 year old kid (Seguin).

  • Fee Logolin

    Once the #1 pick is done either way shouldnt we focus on our need at D? I think the discussion should move towards what it might take to work something out at #3-6 to look at the blue chip prospects there. Columbus at #4 with a package that sees us take back some salary (Commodore +?) for say #31 and some combination of Souray and excess forwards? Any thoughts other than “That’s dumb”?

          • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

            As of today I’d call it an equal trade for both teams.

            Both are going in opposite directions and for Florida they got their picks they wanted plus they add Wideman who I think will bounce back and make this trade possibly favour FLO.

            The other thing is Horton was on the trading block so who really knows if anything better was really offered.

          • I’d give the edge to the the team that just acquired the 25 year old that hasnt scored less than 20 goals a season since he was a rookie.

            The guy looks like someone who could score in the upper 20’s over 82 games for the last 5 years on the Florida Panthers. The Florida Panthers.

            It sounded like the two camps werent happy with each other though. You’re right, there might not have been a better offer.

    • Jodes

      Absolutely.. we’re pretty weak on the blueline after Gilbert, Whitney and Smid, I know Johnson may resign here being a #5 or 6, and Peckham may squeak in, but Plante and Chorney shouldn’t be anywhere near this club next season unless someone else goes down with injury.

      I’m not including Strudwick because I’m not convinced he’ll be back.

      I’m not sure Commodore is the answer, but we definitely need 1 more NHL ready Dman (2 if Johnson signs elsehwere).

      Souray’s our best bet to get another dman unfortunately.

  • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

    How, this scenario . Hall to Oilers . Gudbranson to Boston because of Norton . Florida gets Seguin . Oilers pick Nbr.31- J.Tinordi if available. If not then probably B. Beukeboom . 48th pick- between J. Hishon , O. Lindberg and J.Shugg . 61st pick- K. Agostino or P.Nemeth . 91st – pick C.Cunningham or B.Rust if available . 121st – pick J.Ramage or M.Stone . Chances i’ll be right beyond first choice about 20-25% given their current draft positionings , which is not bad considering .

      • We are talking Oilers here . Recall when they drafted Plante and Nash way ahead of what i felt they had to , and also gave up a very good second round choice that they probably didn’t have to do to get Nash . I was so frustrated with that draft, and watching them bypass D. Perron twice , when i had him rated on par with S.Gagner ! Beukeboom is currently rated NBR. 41 and i doubt they’ll wait to try and get him at our NBR. 48 pick . I’d wait , but i doubt Oilers would .

  • Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach

    If the oilers take seguin there will be absolute hell to pay in edmonton with the fans. I really cannot see it happening. How would the edmonton Management explain why they went against every MSM outlet and scout possible? Only the edmonton reporters and scouts seem to be pumping Seguin and it would be the Biggest ” I told you so” ever if he was drafted and then did not turn out to be the better player. Seguin is just the pick with too much risk involved!

    • I'm a Scientist!

      Really? Hell to pay because we drafted a player that most consider to be an equal to Taylor Hall? They are obviously very close in their appeal or we wouldn’t have had these arguments for the last 3 months.

      I am on Team Seguin. I want a good center on our team for once. But at the same time, i am not going to burn down Rexall (as one commenter stated) if the team picks Hall. Taylor Hall is also an amazing prospect. So i really don’t think we can lose. Raising hell for getting a good player is rediculous.

      Have fun causing a one person riot – I think that is just called vandalism.

      *runs off to make his I heart Taylor Segin t-shirt*

  • Let's Rebuild

    There is no way Boston trades Savard for Kaberle unless TO adds something to sweeten the pot and there is no way Burke will do that. He doesn’t have enough assests to deal and he needs to keep his draft picks. Kaberle is good but Savard is fantastic. Beisdes how many times has Kaberle been alomst dealt?

    I think this is just a PR buzz created by Boston to say to Edmonton that they are fully willing to take Seguin, basically daring Edmonton to take Hall. It could be in response to Edmonton’s offer to leave Hall onthe table and Tambellini bluffed they would take Hall otherwise. Chiarelli is calling his bluff nothing more.

  • striker

    I am disappointed Boston gave away #15, because it would be a great sweetener for the swap. I sure hope Tambo either takes Hall or a pick from Boston for the swap.
    Also, would love to see Oil trade up in into 20-30 (maybe for Souray) and draft Tinordi. This guy is huge and has NHL pedigree.

  • What inside info?
    Then I guess all the other reporters and inside guys who say their inside info says Oilers pick Hall is wrong?

    If the Oilers pick Segan then they will of blown another draft. It is stupid to pick according to position.
    You pick the winner and the best player now.
    To see into a crystal ball who will be better in 5 years is absurd.
    You pick the sure thing now and the best player available.

    Robin has been on this Segan kick for quite awhile like a number of Edmonton reporters.
    Thats why Edmonton has always screwed up the draft. They try and see into a crystal ball instead of picking the best player available.

    • I sure as hell hope the Oilers dont draft Segan. I’ve never even heard of that kid! What position does he even play?

      Now that Seguin kid, I wouldnt mind that guy. Scored more goals than Hall, plays a tougher position, is better defensively, OHL player of the year, CHL prospect of the year, Captain of his club, physical beast according to the NHL combine, and doesnt look like a man-pig.

      • I'm a Scientist!

        Sorry, have to comment…I’ve never understood people’s need to hurl personal insults on a guy, not sure what that proves or what it has to do with who the Oilers should draft..

        Also where is it written that Seguin is better defensively or where is the proof of that? Hall killed penalties for Windsor and was also a plus 46 this year….doesn’t really sound like a defensive liability to me.

        Given what RB reported earlier this spring Hall had put on more weight than Seguin pushing his weight up to over 200lbs which I would take to mean he’s more than likely a physical beast himself.

        We’ve had this goal scoring arguement before so I won’t go into that except to say that seeing as how you like to buy into what the scouts say they have said that despite Seguin finding the net slightly more this REGULAR SEASON and in 6 more games played, Hall is the more dynamic goal scorer than Seguin….

        Hall is also the only player in CHL history to win back to back Memorial Cup MVP awards and was the best player on his team throughout the playoffs both years. He has been consistent since day one in the OHL and has proven that he is not a possible one year wonder.

        Lastly Gregor mentioned in one of his recent articles that Hall wowed the Oilers in recent interviews showing great leadership abilities even moreso than Seguin although both were impressive.

        • Man-Pig. It’s just a little fun. Relax.

          I never said Hall was a liability

          Hall is also the only player in history to win back to back Memorial Cup MVP awards and not win the Player of the Year award or the Prospect of the Year award.

          Lastly, they are both great players, I wont cry if the Oil take Hall.

    • “What inside info?”? If Robin came on here and said, “I have inside info on the top-secret pick, and it cam from X”, he wouldn’t have inside info very much longer. If you’re asking him to reveal his inside sources, my guess is he won’t.

      I don’t think that Robin is saying he thinks Seguin is better, or that he would pick Seguin. Only that *his sources* tell him the Oilers will pick him. You can debate weather or not he was right after the draft, but given his track record, I’m inclined to believe him.

      EDIT: “Inside info” only works if you keep the source private. Otherwise, it’s not inside info anymore.

  • Don’t hold your breath for the Pens to take Pysyk at #20. They need a winger far more than a defenseman and they need a big defenseman far more than they need a small one.

    I would be shocked if they take someone like Pysyk.

  • Is this who you think or what you know in terms of Seguin over Hall. I really doubt that the Oilers are going to let a Hall pass by. Too much talent and proven to pass on. More to lose with Seguin then with Hall.

  • 5. New York Islanders — BRETT CONNOLLY. Despite playing just 16 games with Prince George because of a hip injury, Connolly is a top-three talent. I can’t see Islanders GM Garth Snow laying off him.

    Garth Snow might lay off Connolly after drafting Rick Dipetro..

  • Phil

    people were saying this is a weak draft year? thats a damn fine top 10, hell, top 20. Skinner is going to be a steal for someone, I don’t care how small he is.