Andrew Cogliano & What Have You Done For Me Lately

COLUMBUS, OH - MARCH 15: Andrew Cogliano #13 of the Edmonton Oilers skates during their NHL game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 15, 2010 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. The Blue Jackets defeated the Oilers 5-3. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

One of the second-tier issues the Oilers face this summer (behind Khabibulin and Souray) is what to do with Andrew Cogliano, fresh off the worst season of his NHL career.

Jim Matheson shone some light on what’s happening behind the scenes earlier today in a catch-all article, and got some great quotes from Cogliano’s agent, Anton Thun. Lowetide keyed in on Thun’s comment about other teams, but for my money the key point Thun made was this one:

 

"We’re looking at the book of business that Andrew’s created in his three years in Edmonton and we’re trying to come up with an assessment where he fits as to other people who have signed.”

 

How one looks at Cogliano depends to no small degree on how one weights his performance this past season versus his performance in his first two seasons. Thun talks about the “book” that Cogliano’s created in his three years in Edmonton, and if we look at it from that perspective he deserves a fairly decent contract – two 18 goal seasons in three years, two seasons with solid offensive numbers.

Unfortunately for Thun and Cogliano, the NHL is a ‘what have you done for me lately’ league. Alex Tanguay scored 258 points in 280 games between 2005 and 2009 – an average pace of 76 points per 82 games played. Now, though, he’s a guy with injuries coming off a 37 point season – and that’s exactly how the Flames paid him when they signed him to a contract this summer. Because Cogliano’s a restricted free agent, Thun can talk to other teams about him – and I hope he is, because I don’t think anyone’s willing to pay a premium for him coming off such a lousy season.

Personally, I think Cogliano’s got value, though it kills me that a guy with faceoff percentage/defensive awareness as bad as his keeps getting trotted out at centre. This is a rebuilding year, and it seems as good a time as any to try him out full-time on the wing on a scoring line – and if that keeps one of the shiny rookies in Oklahoma for the season, is that such a bad thing?

I honestly don’t know if Cogliano’s going to be a fit for the Oilers long-term; he’s small and his strengths and weaknesses aren’t an ideal fit with the current roster, but I do know this: his value is at an all-time low, both in terms of the kind of contract he deserves and the kind of trade return he’d fetch, and that makes trading him now a less than ideal situation. I also believe he’s a better player than he showed last season, where he wasn’t well-used by Pat Quinn, and I think he might show it if the Oilers give him one more year.

  • Cowbell_Feva

    Totally agree with everyone who realized that Cogliano was given the short end of the stick when it comes to linemates. The Gretz himself would have had trouble playing with those tools.

    Saying that, since him Gags and Nilson had that terrific finish in their rookie year, Cogliano hasn’t really done much. (stats declining a bit too early in his career.) But, seeing as his trade value is at an all-time low, I would see what he can do this year and go from there.

    Oh, and adding people to the roster is rediculous. I saw someone post the JFJ and Chorney were already taking spots from legitimate NHLers. I agree, except it should have read Horcoff and Stortini.

  • BK

    Hey Willis,

    What do we get if his agent DOES get him a great deal somewhere else? How does the compensation work for the oilers?

    I like Cogs, but not sure his hands will ever catch up to his feet! Should I be cheering for his agent? Sounds like Ottawa kind of liked him last summer…

  • BK

    @ Dave and Ross . My 3 year plan apply accounts for projected revenue over next three seasons . My cap remains same as this year for next 3 seasons , but goes up next three only to suppliment plan . You can use all or none of it if you wanted . Secondly my 3 year sealing on cap is slightly below $65M in three years time , and projection in 3 years time with revenue should probably exceed that figure .

    Thirdly it would not be even $5M more , because those players are under contract anyways even if in minors . Once again how much of that so called increase are you going to use over next 3 seasons when when max is 2 first year , 2 more the next year and only 1 the last year ? $ 2 +2 +1 = 5M max with cap still held at present rate . I’d project only about $ 2.5 M increase overall to present cap after 3 years . Thats well below projected revenues i am sure .

    Fourthly is the players result in net pay should increase as escrow now shared by more members . Say 22 up to 3 year high of 5 = 27 . Financial picture in that regard should also be beneficial to players .

    You both earn my butt plant of the week award .

  • Ender

    madjam wrote:

    @ Dave and Ross . . . You both earn my butt plant of the week award .

    I’m not completely sure what the award is, but Davey and RC are pretty savvy customers. If they get one, I want one too. Can I have next week’s?

  • BK

    REPOSTING:

    Hey Willis,

    What do we get if his agent DOES get him a great deal somewhere else? How does the compensation work for the oilers?

    I like Cogs, but not sure his hands will ever catch up to his feet! Should I be cheering for his agent? Sounds like Ottawa kind of liked him last summer…