Tracking 2010

It takes years to properly evaluate a specific draft year. However, we can count the arrows (good and bad) for each player in a specific draft and the 2010 Oilers entry draft is tracking extremely well. We’ve discussed Taylor Hall, Martin Marincin and Curtis Hamilton in past weeks, and in the last 7 days Ryan Martindale has joined the party.
 

The last entry draft for the Oilers that we can safely close the books on is 2002. Jarrett Stoll and Matt Greene are solid NHL players and Jeff Deslauriers is still trying to establish himself. The other 12 players selected by Kevin Prendergast and the scouting department include a couple of interesting items (including Jesse Niinimaki–he’s posting some good numbers in Finland and I wouldn’t rule out an NHL team giving him a shot) but we can probably make the call on the 2002 draft. However, from 2003 through 2010 there are too many variables, too many pages unwritten for any kind of conclusion to be drawn at this point in time.

We can say that the 2010 entry draft is tracking like a lion.

  • 1st overall: Taylor Hall. 9gp, 2-3-5 in the toughest league in the world, and sky’s the limit. Watching a first overall pick play his first NHL season is a unique experience–it’s equal parts worry and anticipation–and I think this fellow is going to do some amazing things  in the next few seasons.
  • 31st overall: Tyler Pitlick. 9gp, 3-7-10 in the WHL with Medicine Hat. Pitlick received a suspension this week (3 games) for a kneeing infraction against Nathan Deck of Prine Albert. Deck will reportedly miss 4-6 weeks because of the injury (torn MCL).
  • 46th overall: Martin Marincin. If you watched Oil Change in the last 10 days, then you know that the organization seriously considered taking this player at 31st overall. The Magnificent Bastard said "we need defensemen" and it looks like the scouting department hit an early home run here. 16gp, 7-11-18 with Prince George puts him in a tie for 21st overall in league scoring. He went 3gp, 1-2-3 -1 this past week.
  • 48th overall: Curtis Hamilton. 14gp, 6-10-16 with Saskatoon Blades. Hamilton’s offense has dried up in the last 10 days (he was 7gp, 3-7-10 in the season’s first two weeks) but he’s in the top 10 plus minus and the big item for this player is health. Hamilton has played in all of the Blades games.
  • 61st overall: Ryan Martindale. The Ottawa 67 center had a strong week (4gp, 3-4-7 +4) and now ranks 11th in OHL scoring (16gp, 8-12-20). He’s 2-5-7 on the PP.
  • 91st overall: Jeremie Blain. 2gp, 0-1-1 for Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL). Titian GM Sylvain Couturier: "Blain is a key player for us and he’s only played two games so far." Injury is a major prospect killer, and this young man is losing key development time.
  • 121st overall: G Tyler Bunz. 7gp, 2.99 .897SP for Medicine Hat. His SP ranks him 19th in the WHL, although his GAA puts him higher (13th). The other goalie (the incredibly named Deven Dubyk) has a .923SP so Bunz numbers don’t stand out all things considered.
  • 162nd overall: D Brandon Davidson. 15gp, 1-8-9 with Regina (WHL). 3gp, 0-1-1 +2 this past week, as his team seems to be settling down a little after a monstrous start. Hard to evaluate at this early juncture, but he’s putting up points and is certainly one of the team’s top defenders.
  • 166th overall: L Drew Czerwanka. 15gp, 5-4-9 for Kootenay (WHL). 4gp, 1-2-3 -2 this week, he’s now surpassed his goal scoring total from one year ago (4 in 54go). An interesting prospect, hard to get a complete read on him when browsing his scoring lines in the WHL.
  • 181st overall: C Kristians Pelss. 14gp, 1-1-2 with the Oil Kings (WHL). A quiet week (zip in 3gp) and he hasn’t hit the scoresheet since October 9th. It’s important to remember that players drafted at this point (181st overall) are extreme longshots to play in the NHL. The Oilers scouting department saw something in him, and there’s almost always an adjustment period for these kids (Pelss was in Belarus a year ago). His 2nd half could be much better.
  • 202nd overall: L Kellen Jones. 6gp, 3-3-6 with Quinnipiac (NCAA). 20-year old leads his team in scoring and is having an immediate impact. There’s a quick story on Jones and his brother here.

Although we’re just 4 months beyond the draft, there’s already some strong tells among the group. Taylor Hall looks capable of playing at the NHL level, Marincin is dominant in the WHL, Hamilton, Pitlick and Martindale are also doing good things in the CHL. Blain’s injury and Bunz average play are the first bumps on the draft list, but Davidson and Czerwonka make the later rounds interesting. Pelss and Jones are "draft and follow" types that we’ll be watching with interest years down the road.

That 2002 entry draft gave the Oilers two solid NHL players (Stoll, Greene) and a perennial goaltender prospect in JDD. The 2010 draft needs about 8 years to give us the same kind of focus, but we can say with some confidence that the kids drafted in the top 70 are tracking well out of the box.

  • Peckham looks like he may be able to play the role that Greene once did.

    Those numbers for Marincin seem incredible for a WHL defenceman and it will be very interesting to see how he progresses as it appears that defenceman too are able to step in and play at a younger age then in the past and boy was MBS right about what the Oilers need.

  • Lowetide

    Wow, when its all laid out like this, its crazy to see how much they love the Dub, lota players over there right now.

    I think we can honestly say that this is the best draft year weve have in many many years, the top 3-4 look to have a good chance at NHL time, and all but the last 2 will most likely spend a few seasons on the farm at the very least.

  • Alex87

    LT – if you’re Renney/Tambellini do you put Marincin in the AHL next year, or do you send him back to junior for another year? He looks like he’s more than up to the challenge of the dub and he could technically be playing in the AHL already.

  • Lowetide

    Alex87: AHL for sure. Why not? I’m believe that you elevate prospects to the next level as soon as they’re ready. MBS suggested he might put the kid in the AHL right after the Oilers drafted him, then back tracked a little after Prince George drafted him.

    But he’s 2nd in rookie scoring and is tied for the lead among defensemen!!! I’d send him to Okla City next fall.

  • Alex87

    Hello, LT. I’m a longtime listener and first-time caller.

    Other people on other websites have differing opinions. Should they be considered?

    Have a nice Sunday,

    Dennis

  • Lowetide

    I had an opportunity to see the Oil Kings play both Prince George and Medicine Hat, and all three of Marinicin, Pitlick and Bunz looked like real solid prospects. Marincin in particular looked astonishingly composed and accomplished for a guy playing one of his first games on this side of the pond (this was three weeks ago). I was initially pretty surprised when he went #1 overall in the CHL Import Draft but he sure looks to be covering the bet and then some.

  • Lowetide

    Bruce: I’ve talked to a few people who know a little about the WHL and he certainly stands out at that level. It’ll be interesting to see if he can sustain this kind of offensive output over an entire year.

    Dan the Man: Thanks. They’re fun to do.

    • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

      From 2000 to 2005 (probably too early to judge classes later then that) 6 of the 50 top 10 picks have turned into what I would call “#1C/#1D”.

      So 12%.

      What’s inexcusable is not realizing the rarity of the the above happening.

    • Steve Smith

      So let’s say the BPA when the Oilers pick is “Bob”, a winger, but the Oilers instead take the best defenseman available, “Joe”. Are you really going to be sanguine about watching Bob light it up for another team because you happened to have a round hole into which Joe was the better fit?

      If a team has a good enough base of great players at any position, free agents will be willing to sign there to fill in the gaps. It’s convenient when the BPA happens to fill a positional need, but you can’t pass up a better player because of what you think your positional needs might be four years down the road, when the draft pick can be expected to contribute at the NHL level.

    • Ryan14

      I wish, instead of Eberle, the Oilers drafted Daulten Leuville, or Peter Holland instead of MP. Stu really pooped the bed when he drafted those 2. I mean look at Leuville and Holland. 2 of the best young centers in the game right now.

      You are really starting to look like a fool on these boards. Your disdain for Hall is making you look like you have no hockey intelligence whatsoever. 1st round pick does not equal first line, starting goalie, #1 d-man.

      If you educated yourself, you probably wouldn’t be so full of hate.

    • C-DOG

      You are partially right, at 10 & 22 you have to take BPA, but at 1 & 2 when they are that close and you you already have Eberle/Paajarvi/Hemsky etc… & what Boston would of given up for passing on Hall, it should of been a no brainer. Seguin’s doing a lot in a 3rd line role & at 18 is 51% on the dot. Remember this has never been a referendom on Hall, he’s great and will put up 90 points/year. It’s just not what we need and Stu loved Seguin anyways.

      If people were listening closely to Brownlee, it was obvious Stu liked Seguin, but the influence from some scouts/Lowe/Tambilini helped change his mind, and on Oil change Stu suggested that.

      This is not on Stu, his job is to tell mngmt who are the BPA, then it’s up to Tamb/Lowe to mix the proper ingredients together, this isn’t the NBA were you put the 2-3 best superstars, it’s more like the NFL were you need to be strong all over the place,no one plays half the game.

      Long live the “MB”. He’s are only hope.

      • Ryan14

        Seguin is 4th on Boston for face-offs taken and is below 50% away from home. He is a benefactor of taking face-offs against the oppositions weaker center men. Not really awe inspiring.

        • C-DOG

          He’s barely below 50% on the road and you don’t know the %’s of his opposition , either way great for an 18 year old, Crosby was low 40% in his 18 year old season, now he’s one of the best. Very awe inspiring! How are our 21,23 30 year old faceoff men doing….ah…..ah exactly.

          • Ryan14

            Crosby also played against top level talent his entire career.

            Seguin is at a 6% discrepancy between home and away percentages. That is petty significant.

            I would say our 21 year old face off man is doing pretty damn good considering he is playing against some of the best opposition. Our 23 year old should be traded for a multitude of reasons and our 30 year old is average.

            It’s been 9 games into seguins NHL career and your acting as if his career has been written in stone. Wait until he is no longer a third liner before you start comparing him to Crosby

          • C-DOG

            I like how you make it look like I said he would be as good as Crosby when I was only talking about faceoffs, and yes 54% to 48% for an 18 YEAR OLD is a petty discrepancy.

            Barring injury or disaster it is written in stone that he will be an elite 1st line centre.

            Imagine him between Paajarvi and Eberle in a few years, WOWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!! He would be a 90-100 point player.

            Start hunting for crow my friend.

  • Lowetide

    It seems like every year Stu out does himself. I can’t wait to see what he can pull of next draft.

    Marincin is the guy making this draft class truly shine right now. Great job by the scouting staff identifying him and good on Tambellini for getting a deal done. Nash who?

    • Lowetide

      OF: I was and am a big time Nash fan, but that trade looks fabulous at this early juncture. Nash is 10gp, 0-2-2 with Charlotte (AHL) and was pointless his first 8gp.

      • Ducey

        Oh, I was a huge fan of Nash while he was here. I thought he would be a staple on the third line for many a year and was actually pretty upset at the trade when it went down. Something about trading a #22 for a #46 didn’t sit right, and I was hoping the Oilers would try to make amends with Nash, but I’ve definitely changed my tune on the trade in recent times.

        With Pitlick, Lander, Hamilton, etc. in the system, the Oilers still have a bunch of 2-way potential for the bottom six, and Marincin has been fantastic. His early success got me thinking, and I’m starting to come around to the opinion that trading into the second to grab defensemen is overall a great bet.

        Let’s look at some defensemen taken in the 2nd in recent years:

        2004- Nicklas Grossman (56), Alex Goligoski (61)
        2003- Kevin Klein (37), Matt Carle (47), Shea Weber (49)
        2002- Trevor Daley (43), Matt Greene (44), Duncan Keith (54), Johnny Boychuk (61)
        2001- Fedor Tyutin (40),
        2000- Nick Schultz (33), Paul Martin (62)
        1999- Mike Commodore (42), Jordan Leopold (44)

        As you can see, every year there’s at least some quality on the blue in the second, and it’s possible to hit a huge home run. For all the guys who turn out, there are also plenty more great prospects who don’t. If the Oil like a D in the 2nd, by all means make a trade and get him. There’s a pretty decent chance it’ll work out wonderfully.

  • Lowetide

    LT: The blue definitely needs some work. A couple more careful moves like the Marincin one could go a long way towards fixing that though. Adam Larsson certainly shouldn’t hurt either πŸ™‚

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    From a Brownlee blog, June 25th:

    “I came to the conclusion about three weeks ago that it was Taylor,” said MacGregor. “I felt very comfortable with that . . . all the information came together and it was really comfortable for me. Our staff was strong on Taylor. I hadn’t told any of the guys where I stood, then I laid it out today”

    Nice try Shadi :0

    • It seemed to me from the 2nd installment of Oil Change that Stu looked pretty torn to say Taylor Hall’s name. I’m not saying that he didnt actually change his mind to Hall, but it was obviously a tough decision.

      He did credit the Mem-Cup and his scouts for changing his mind last minute.

        • C-DOG

          What would you expect him to say, “I disagree with Tambi and he twisted my arm”. He initialy wanted Hall, but after watching both players carefully his instincts said Seguin, then he was convinced to change his mind because of playoff performances on the greatest junior team of all time, yes he was the best player ,but they were winning games by large margins, winning in junior doesn’t always translate to the NHL.

          Tambi going hard for the second pick showed me how much Stu liked Seguin,I don’t know if the rumors were true on what they would of given up, but it does show the org’s feelings about Seguin. I never said Stu was against drafting Hall, If Low/Tambi wanted Seguin or were split, I personaly beleive Seguin would be an Oiler.

          And are you keeping score of something? (:0) realy!
          And who’s MC.

          • C-DOG

            No, I said “I beleive” which means it’s my opinion, not a C.T.

            I beleive the Oilers could of had the 32nd or MAYBEE! the 15th pick and a conditional 1st round pick if Boston was to win the cup in Hall’s 1st three years similar to the Pronger trade.

            Chiarelli said ” were not willing to give this,this,this and this to get the guy they wanted, thats 4 things, considering all the assets Boston has accumilated I think my package would of done the trick.

            If you watched the first Oil change. you here MBS said when debating Gudbranson/Fowler, “we don’t have that type of D-man in the org”, he threw out BPA for that argument.

  • This scouting staff seems to have a good handle on the draft. They’re record of late is good. It’s hard to argue when all six players on the top 2 lines of the last game (and 5 of the 6 goal-scorers in the last game) were drafted by the Oilers. I’m perfectly fine with BPA. The two players last year were neck and neck with eachother, and I was convinced the BPA was the other kid. Time will tell.

    It’s pretty clear though that the organization is in need of some quality prospects at the C position though.

    • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

      Indy, what is it that makes you prefer Seguin to Hall? Was is that his upward trajectory was steeper, climbing significantly during this last year, the fact that he is a C and top C’s are rare and conveted, or something else?

      I was a toss-up until I attended the Mem Cup and watched Hall dominate everyone like an alpha-lion, and then watching Oil Change observed that Hall has the psychology of a champion.

      Seguin to me seems to have excellent hockey mechanics, but most people assess that Hall probably can’t sleep at night if he loses a game.

      Just want to hear a strong position from the other side. Thx.

      • Position played a little bit into it. I’d have to run back into the many “debates” I had with Crash, but for me the biggest points for Seguin were that he was producing equal numbers with much weaker linemates and his 5 on 5 numbers were far and away better than Hall’s. Almost double the even strength production, in fact. That was huge for me.

        There’s plenty to be excited about with a player that shows up for the big game, but Hall was surrounded by high-end CHL talent. His team’s success was not entirely dependent on him, Seguin’s was. Seguin’s attitude wasnt exactly rotten either, he seemed very intelligent and willing to work on the little things that make good players great.

        It doesnt matter now though, Hall is an Oiler and I want him to be the better player. I want to have been wrong.

        • C-DOG

          I don’t know if you’ve ever read Moneyball, but there’s a section in the book that breaks down the debate between drafting kids with raw athletic talent out of high school and developing them into MLB all-stars, and drafting college players with strong statistical pedigrees and proven aptitude for the game of baseball.

          I believe the former yielded fewer players to actually keep a job in the show, but a higher chance of producing all-star calibre players. The latter was a sure-fire way to fill a roster with above-average players.

          To me the equation of Hall vs Seguin came down to a player who plays with a dimension of unique raw talent that can’t be taught, might not be seen in a half-dozen years and can’t be passed up on, and a steady point producer who will undoubtedly achieve the ppg or better threshold over his career.

          It’s like picking between a Masserati and an 7-series BMW.

  • Ducey

    My only criticism of the 2010 Oiler draft is Jones. I don’t see a 7th round 5’9″ overage guy is going to make it (especially on this team that lacks size already). He has to be top 6 at his size.

    If they went for someone bigger with some grit they might wind up with a bottom 6 guy or bottom pair Dman. If they get lucky he develops some hands and you wind up with a 2nd or third liner.

    The odds are not great with any 7th rounder but I see Jones as having a 0% chance of making it.

  • Lowetide

    Ducey: In following the draft these many years, I think sometimes late round picks are “area selections” as a courtesy to a scout who feels strongly about a depth player in his area. I’ve always felt that sort of thing results in a wasted pick, but that’s how the Dodgers got Piazza.

    • And I’m not suggesting that he was against drafting Hall. My take, based only on the Oil Change footage, was that it was a laboured decision.

      I’m not going to start slagging the guy for taking 1 guy over the other. I’m an armchair scout at best. It just bugs me when people talk about that draft like 1 guy was clearly the better of the 2. If that were the case the head scout wouldnt have changed his mind 3 times in a season.

    • “The other 12 players selected by Kevin Prendergast and the scouting department include a couple of interesting items (including Jesse Niinimaki–he’s posting some good numbers in Finland and I wouldn’t rule out an NHL team giving him a shot)”

      Man, J-NIINI was only 5 points behind defenseman Markus Seikola for 3rd place in scoring on his team last year. Sure they were in last place, but that just proves how resilient the kid is. And he was only 26!!!!!!

      That said, he is almost out-scoring Mike York, Pavel Brendl and Jean-Luc GrandPierre COMBINED. Almost.

    • C-DOG

      I never read any of your blogs untill you came to Oilers nation, so I am assuming you were a Hall guy all the way, what specificaly made you want to pass on a Sure fire 1st line centre or did you even beleive he was. Do you have any links to past blogs on this topic. Thanks

  • Alex87

    Do we have a good comp for Marincin yet? It sounds crazy, but I want to say Chara. Of course, I’m not saying Marincin will be as good as Chara, and I haven’t really done any research, but the stats are similar. Both big Slovakians who played in the WHL (for the same team) post-draft. So far, Marincin has put up better offense, and he is also a year younger.

    Marincin – 46th overall, began his first post-draft year with Prince George as an 18 year old. So far is 16 GP 7-11-18.

    Chara – 56th overall, played his first post-draft year with Prince George as a 19 year old. Went 49 GP, 3-19-22.

    Chara would obviously be best case scenario and I’m not at this point suggesting that is a reasonable expectation for Marincin… but I am hoping to spark a discussion on Marincin comps now that he is a “prospect of note.” Thoughts anyone..?

  • Lowetide

    There’s one thing I never got about the “Seguin had weaker line-mates” argument. If he’s supposed to be this great franchise C, shouldn’t he have been making those guys look better?

    Seems to me he should have had GMs killing themselves years later for taking those guys too high when in hindsight it’s clear they were just having career years because they were playing with the great Tyler Seguin.

    • Sidney Crosby had 109 points last season. He didnt have a single linemate with more than 50 points. Why didnt he make them better? If you believe Seguin should have made those guys better, then surely Crosby should have elevated his wingers as well.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            I was kind of suprised too when I first started looking into it.

            To take it to the extreme, Mark Recchi was struggling so badly with Crosby that he was waived after putting up 8 points in 19 games playing on Crosby’s wing (for the most part anyways).

            He then went on to rip it up on the lowly Thrashers scoring 40 points in 53 games…. a 75 point pace.

          • C-DOG

            Putting up points on a bad team, I think we have discussed this before.

            Part of the reason they turfed Recchi was his attitude/fued with coach Therien and the rebuild.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            Blah blah blah.

            He also scored 16 points in 18 games after the Bruins aquired him at the deadling… you know, the year they won the east…. shoots a hole in your little, unsuported theory.

          • C-DOG

            I like your small segments, there cute! Just if we had amnesia and only remembered Gagne’s last 30 games in his rookie year 29 points. We would all go to bed and forget this 1st line centre issue.

            Expecting an 18 year old Crosby to make an old player, who’s fueding with his coach better is ridiculious.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            Don’t worry Shadi, theirs more examples then just Recchi.

            Guerin produced at a 50 point clip with the worst team in the league

            He was then traded to the Pens and produced at a 55 point clip.

            Guerin’s last full season with the NYI he scored 44 points

            His full season with the Pens he scored 45 points

          • C-DOG

            Guerin and Recchi at least have a track record little Sammy doesn’t, they have been allstars. I will admit my shot at Recchi wasn’t so much at him but the Oilers players.

          • C-DOG

            When I said players putting up #’s on bad teams. I should of never said that about Recchi he has always been a producer good or bad teams, I should of just stuck to saying don’t put it on Crosby at 18 for Recchi being put on waivers. His issues were with the coach.

            Guerin was also a great player. good or bad teams.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            I’m not saying he was put on waivers because of Crosby, I said his production was as good or better away from Crosby.

            Lending proof that for the most part, guys numbers aren’t pumped up playing with him.

          • C-DOG

            I beleive A great player can make an avg player become above avg, good become very good and very good become great, but no one can make an avg player great unless there is some crazy chemistry going on between 2 specific players.

            I think Crosby helps you win because of his all around game and not by making players around him significantly better.

            You get the odd Rob Brown’s of the world who score 49 goals in 68 games and never come close again.

          • C-DOG

            Yes, of course I remember Boston the team with depth up the middle and D, the team that beat Buffalo a regular season division champ last year that was weaker at centre and defeated Montreal the year before that had the same problem, and the team that lost to Phili last year because even they didn’t have Phili’s depth at centre and defence, you make it way to easy.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            Haha, what are you talking about man? Why can’t you focus on one topic at a time?

            I’m talking about how Crosby hasn’t elevated the production of his linemates and you’re going off in 10 different directions.

    • C-DOG

      He did make them look better, but do you expect him to turn them into allstars, proof he had weaker teamates is that he scored more goals than Hall and Hall had more assists, and most beleive Hall is the better goal scorer and Seguin is the better playmaker. That shows me he got those assists by playing with better finishers and Seguin had to go outside of his element and become a better goal scorer because he couldn’t rely on his teamates.

      Boston’s strength is down the middle and weakness is on the wings, he’s playing with Ryder and Recchi and he is still producing with less minutes than any of the Oilers rookies.

    • C-DOG

      Thanks, but I have to admit I’m a little surprised you first wanted Seguin and a little dissapointed that you changed your mind because of a play or a series.

      I have to tell you I sat in front of Kelly McCrimmon and he would turn his head everytime he saw those Hall Mem cup highlights. McCrimmon is very good friend with Mike Babcock and later Mike put him in his Luxery suite, but before he went Babcock came and said hello to him , so I asked McCrimmon if he knew who Detroit would pick since they were in between Windsor & Plymouth, he said Seguin, later Scotty Bowman walked up the stairs and I stopped him, he talked to me for about 5 minutes and was very open and he told me that his people in Chicago told him that long term they beleived Seguin would be better.

      I am not making this up when McCrimmon comes to town with Branden you can ask him off the record.

      Colin cambell said he was a Hall guy but was leaning towards Seguin. He was also a great guy to talk to , can’t say the same thing about Bettman, he was a total jerk.

      • Lowetide

        I’m a fan. I’ve got my slide rule and am older than most so have seen some things, but the bottom line is that as a fan I can be swayed by those things. Probably the reason I’m not in management. πŸ™‚

        I’m fine with Hall over Seguin, would have been fine the other way. You have to let it go, though. You can’t change history.

        • C-DOG

          You are right, I need to let it go, my problem is as I get older, I approach it less as a fan, and more as a wannabe G.M.
          Do you know a psychiatrist.

          There is one positive in all of this I no longer get stressed out after a loss, because expectations have come down.

          • Ducey

            You are right, I need to let it go, my problem is as I get older, I approach it less as a fan, and more as a wannabe G.M. Do you know a psychiatrist.

            Well, ~seeing you are so well connected, instead of talking to Scotty Bowman, et al., maybe you should speak to Doug MacLean, Mike Milbury or John Ferguson, Jr.~ Being a GM is a lot harder in real life than it is at home.

            I was a Seguin guy too. But that was based on stats, postion, and the fact that the Oilers could have maybe got something for Hall from Boston. However, I would never criticize the Oilers for taking Hall. I never saw Seguin play, I don’t know what Boston offered, if anything, and was not in on the interviews etc. I have no idea whether I, if I were the GM, would have made the same decision.

  • Crash

    So LT, what do we make of the ol’ “need vs. BPA” argument, as it relates to the Oilers scouting staff?

    Many thought before the draft that EDM was short D prospects, that the Oilers needed* a D as was noted by MacGregor in the documentary. You could make a good case that while EDM has “needed”, and could have internally rationalized selecting, a D with their first 2nd round pick two years in a row, they have chosen to take a F even if that doesn’t necessarily fit their organizational needs.

    As you know LT, I hate that MacGregor is even talking about need, especially that early in the draft, but the fact that they “needed” a D but passed to take a F is something I’m happy to have seen take place.

    * To the extent that a team “needs” a balanced prospect list. I guess there’s only so many organizational slots for drafted G, or D, or even F, myself I prefer to draft the BPA, with the caveat that my definition of BPA is really more like “Best Asset Available” as opposed to “best player/prospect available”. That distinction would lead me to draft more F’s than most.

  • Lowetide

    speeds: I was fascinated by the latest installment of Oil Change. I know, geek squared.

    But I agree that they had the conversation and came down on the right side of the argument. In fact, getting Marincin came from having a qualified C to trade (Nash) in order to get the 46th overall selection.

    I have to say the procurement dept has been impressive. Tambellini’s showing in Oil Change was less inspiring. I wonder if Kevin Lowe did the edits. πŸ™‚

    • C-DOG

      I have a question for you and others. If Hall ends up being a perenial 90 point player on L.W & Seguin ends up being an 82 point Centre , did the Oilers make the right decision, considering they could of also got something else out of Boston and the teams strengths which is on the wings, not to mention if they don’t finish in the lottery this year and miss out on the big C.

      Kane rw had 88 points last year and Toews c has never had a 70 point season, but most people say they would take Toews.

      • Crash

        Do I fall under others? How the hell do you know what the Oilers could have gotten out of Boston if anything to pass on Hall and take Seguin.

        Pure speculation on your part. Just because you think your package would have done the trick doesn’t make it so.

        And in answer to your other question. If Hall is a 90 point winger and Seguin is supposedly a better player, then Seguin better be better than a 90 point player or it will be clear that Hall was the correct pick.

        I can’t believe we’re debating this again.

        • C-DOG

          Lets say you are right, and Boston was not going to give anything up, and it was obviously clear they needed a winger, then what does that say about their feelings about Seguin? Pretty big compliment.

          I assume you would take Kane over Toews then.

    • C-DOG

      I was too, it was really interesting – could have been a lot more so without the blurred computer screens!

      Some things of note I haven’t seen talked about all that much around the blogs:

      (1) The “top 7” that Stu MacGregor talked about being worth trading in for. These may not be in the order they had them ranked, but given the way they started the list, it is certainly possible this was their top 7, in order:

      Hall
      Seguin
      Johansen
      Gudbranson
      Fowler
      McIlrath
      Campbell

      Stu also said “If Skinner’s there, you have to give him consideration. He’s just too much of a scorer.” We can probably infer that this means they may have had Skinner eigth, but that’s a guess.

      Now, I kinda don’t like that list, so that brings to my mind a concern I wrote about years ago – that you can’t really tell if a scouting staff is good simply by looking at their results, you need to see their list.

      EG.

      Team A’s picks 7th, their top 10 list sees the following results 10 years later

      BUST
      BUST
      BUST
      HOME RUN
      BUST
      BUST
      BUST
      BUST
      BUST
      BUST

      they end up getting the guy 4th on their list.

      Team B picks 8th, their top 10 list is wildly different from team A, and sees the following results 10 years later:

      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      BUST
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN
      HOME RUN

      they end up getting the guy 6th on their list

      (2) The name bars scattered about the bed in the hotel room. At least a few of the following will probably be struggling 3 years from now, they might not be bad names to remember in terms of future trades if EDM’s current management is still in place at that time:

      Watson
      Tinordi
      Marincin
      Pitlick
      Forbort

      • Lowetide

        speeds: Yeah, I think we have to concede a lot of this has to do with luck. And I think that includes NJD and DET.

        That top 7-8 resembles Blue Bullet’s list, not so much mine. πŸ™‚