Calder Race Heating Up

After three big road games, the Oilers rookies are moving up the scoring race. Although leading the league in total rookie points is not a guarantee of winning the ROY, it certainly helps. Being famous and scoring ridiculous goals that make Sportsentre’s Plays of the Day/Week/Month also help. The Oilers have two strong candidates.

Winning the Calder would be historic for Hall or Eberle. For all the phenomenal talent that Oiler fans have watched over the years, none won the Calder (which is as ridiculous as it sounds). Maybe the hockey Gods owe us one, but it looks to me as though one of these two kids could win it outright:

  1. Jeff Skinner (CAR) 24gp, 7-12-19 -4
  2. Jordan Eberle (EDM) 25gp, 5-13-18 -1
  3. Logan Couture (SJS 24gp, 10-5-15 +2
  4. Derek Stepan 27gp, 6-9-15 -1
  5. Taylor Hall 25gp, 8-6-14 -2

There are other candidates (Shattenkirk, Subban and Carlson among the D and goalie Bobrovsky is dynamite). Having said all that, it looks like the Oilers are going to have a really good shot at winning this thing. The best chance since maybe Jason Arnott over a decade ago.

I don’t like to spend a lot of time on newer stats at ON, but this is an important item. RelCorsi measures total shots for and against while specific players are on the ice. This measurement goes back decades, innovative coaches were using it in the 1970’s. Here are the relCorsi’s for the 5 players above. I should mention that Corsi is a tool best used to compare players on the same team, but it does show a strong trend:

  1. Hall (EDM) +14.8
  2. Eberle (EDM) +10.4
  3. Logan Couture (SJS) +9.2
  4. Derek Stepan (NYR) +3.6
  5. Jeff Skinner (CAR) +0.9

Hall and Eberle are playing against tough competition and the puck is going the right way. Music! I’m hopeful one of these young men wins some hardware, it would be a solid indicator for the future. But in reality we already have it.

Let the good times roll.

  • JJmorrocco

    Where are all the Hall haters now? You know, the guys that said Hall would get destroyed and couldn’t handle the physical play in the NHL.

    @it’s hall over,

    in the closet with tom cruise. they will come out eventually.

  • Oilers89

    These kid’s are very special, I don’t think that there are very many rookies that join the league and face top line competition (they probably wouldn’t face top line comp on better teams) and manage to outplay, outchance them, etc. I’m guessing that almost no rookie/rookies have done this, guys like Crosby and Ovie probably did, all I am saying is that I am very excited and believe that these guys will leave all other rookies in their dust by the end of the year. P.S Horcoff looks great with these guys!

    • Zed

      Say you were an Oiler scout and you had a choice between:

      Roast chicken (pick #1) or prime rib (pick #2) -OR-

      Brown mystery meat with gravy (pick #10) or the squishy stuff in that green sauce in the buffet line up (pick #11).

      All four choices could be winners, but if you had to pull a Pendergast and choose one that tastes like the underside of an elephant’s armpit. Which dish would you pick?

  • encore

    The calder is no indicator of sucess, for example, Stamkos did not win the calder, but in retrospect, he is the most dominant rookie from that year.
    Horcoff is becoming a much better playmaker than I ever gave him credit for, he sets up those rookies pretty nicely, not a great shooter, but a good set up man.

    • John Chambers

      This is a valid point, CfC. Because you have rookies who are 18 (Hall & Skinner), 20 (Eberle, and Carlson), 22 (Bobrovsky), and anywhere in between, the Calder race isn’t a great measuring stick for who will be the best NHL player based on performance during their first NHL season.

      It would be nice to have an Oiler win the hardware, but it’s a poor determinant of future success.

  • John Chambers

    thank you!

    and valid point about the picks. we seem to be so concerned with the pick placement of 2010….we are forgetting about the “potential” of the team of 2010.

  • Zed

    I wonder who is the donair meat of the 2011 entry draft? Who’s the squishy stuff with the green sauce?

    I’m sure one day the writers on this blog can do a comparison for us.

    *munches on fruit roll up*

  • Max Powers - Team HME Evans

    Alexander Mikhaylovich Ovechkin (Russian: Александр Михайлович Овечкин; pronounced [ˈɐlʲɪkˌsɑndr ɐˈvʲetʃkɪn];

    picked 1st overall & Calder Winner

    • John Chambers

      I’ve already got a pool on for Calder winners for the ’11-’12 season.

      Front runners are Jonathan Bernier, Neat-o Niederreiter, and whoever we’re gushing over after successful completion of this year’s ELPH!

  • Dan the Man

    Maybe this isn’t such a bold prediction since he is tied for the lead right now but….Hall will lead the Oil in goals at the end of the season.

    Book it.