Calder Race Heating Up

After three big road games, the Oilers rookies are moving up the scoring race. Although leading the league in total rookie points is not a guarantee of winning the ROY, it certainly helps. Being famous and scoring ridiculous goals that make Sportsentre’s Plays of the Day/Week/Month also help. The Oilers have two strong candidates.
 

Winning the Calder would be historic for Hall or Eberle. For all the phenomenal talent that Oiler fans have watched over the years, none won the Calder (which is as ridiculous as it sounds). Maybe the hockey Gods owe us one, but it looks to me as though one of these two kids could win it outright:

  1. Jeff Skinner (CAR) 24gp, 7-12-19 -4
  2. Jordan Eberle (EDM) 25gp, 5-13-18 -1
  3. Logan Couture (SJS 24gp, 10-5-15 +2
  4. Derek Stepan 27gp, 6-9-15 -1
  5. Taylor Hall 25gp, 8-6-14 -2

There are other candidates (Shattenkirk, Subban and Carlson among the D and goalie Bobrovsky is dynamite). Having said all that, it looks like the Oilers are going to have a really good shot at winning this thing. The best chance since maybe Jason Arnott over a decade ago.

I don’t like to spend a lot of time on newer stats at ON, but this is an important item. RelCorsi measures total shots for and against while specific players are on the ice. This measurement goes back decades, innovative coaches were using it in the 1970’s. Here are the relCorsi’s for the 5 players above. I should mention that Corsi is a tool best used to compare players on the same team, but it does show a strong trend:

  1. Hall (EDM) +14.8
  2. Eberle (EDM) +10.4
  3. Logan Couture (SJS) +9.2
  4. Derek Stepan (NYR) +3.6
  5. Jeff Skinner (CAR) +0.9

Hall and Eberle are playing against tough competition and the puck is going the right way. Music! I’m hopeful one of these young men wins some hardware, it would be a solid indicator for the future. But in reality we already have it.

Let the good times roll.

  • JJmorrocco

    What should we do with Flames third round pick to the Oilers this next draft. Trade it back to them , or keep it ? Whom on Flames would be a reasonable player for us that would have Oilers give them back that pick ?

    • D-Man

      We keep the pick… I would have told you last year you were nuts to consider even talking to the Flames for a trade, but considering the Staios trade – who knows now…

      Unless Giordano is available (and he’s not since he recently signed a multi year deal) – I seriously can’t see us talking to the Flames at all this year…

  • positivebrontefan

    I say continue to evaluate the team as it is and let the kids play in all situations as they have been, seems to be working so far. I’d like to see Paarvi play with Gagner and Hemsky more to see what he can really do, my guess is he will be right up there with the other kids in no time.

    Good job Renney.

  • JJmorrocco

    Hey LT what are the stats for east vs west in ROY? Since its discretionary and voted on I would tend to believe the east wins a lot more of these since that where the exposure is.

    The east just got a taste of what we have been seeing for 20 games – hopefully it clicked for them!

  • Jason Gregor

    They are now contributing against crappy eastern teams (why jeff skinners numbers are bigger), theyre on the way up :). Big improvement since september. Remember the superstar preseason? Well its on its way back into the oilers gameplan

  • Oilers89

    As of late the Oil have playing some decent hockey. Since a team like LA who have been struggling to score is so rich on D-guys should the Oilers engage in trade talks with them? Penner and/or Cogs for Muzzin/Hickey or Martinez? Any Thoughts?

  • MrCondor

    OILER BASHING BANISHED ? Time for new prognostifications ? HMMMM, how’s this for size ? Generally takes 20 games for newbies to adjust to new team , just like trade deadliners generally take before melding properly into lineup .

    Maybe Oiler defence not as bad as first thought over first 20 games ? Lately they seem far better at both ends of rink . They even seem like they may be competent and contributing . The Gagner group seems to be showing promise finally along with Peckham and other newbies . Dare i say they look like they are becoming a team ?

    I forcast the team needed 11 victories and 1 OL and 3 SO to get back to .500 over next twenty games and they are well over that pace in last 5 games . They could beat that pace at current rate . Surprised , yes but hope they keep it going . I don’t mind eating crow when they are playing well and trying their best .

    The rookies are starting to come and have not disappointed from the start of season all thins considered . Thank goodness rest of squad is starting to come and help them along . A lot of things might be possible this season if they play as a team . I might even have to change my opinion of management at this rate , but it’ll take a lot more convincing than just mid season .

  • Quicksilver ballet

    I use to feel it would be playing with Shawn Horcoff would cost one of these two kids the Calder, now i feel one will win it despite having to play with Horcoff.

    The kids are usually the Oilers best players most nights, what the heck is Horcoff going to teach these kids. Now that Lowe has set a precendent with Horcoff at a 5.5 cap hit, do we even entertain the thought of extending Hemsky? Horcoff has to go, just to restore sanity to this franchise again, but i guess it could be Quebecs problem with Katz playing Family Fued yesterday.

    Happy weekend all.

    • Dominoiler

      Wow, why all the hate for Horcs? Is the contract a bad one? Definitely. However, he is a useful player that is doing well with the rooks on his line. While he may cost them a bit offensively, it seems like he is doing a good job of helping them learn the NHL game, especially defensively.

      WRT Hemmer, I would definitely try to re-sign him if I were Tambi. The team has cap space and will likely clear some more when Penner’s contract expires/he is traded (as much as I would like to keep him, he is probably going to sign with LA or ANA as a UFA). Hemmer has taken his game to a new level leadership and playing wise this year. Keeping him would give the Oil a great set of top 6 wingers that could compensate for the donut effect from a weakness down the middle.

    • Dyckster

      Did it ever cross your mind the kids may be having success BECAUSE they’re playing with Horcoff? Not in spite of playing with him.

      Cup half empty much?

      *Facepalm*

      • John Chambers

        Agreed!!! Although Horcs has a rediculous contract, will obviously won’t have to come close to those numbers if we choose to resign him. Kinda like Conroy on calgary.

        Eberle and Hall are amazing but if you watch any footage from the bench, Horcs is always talking to them so you have to conclude that Horcs is a positive to their developement!!

        • Hemmertime

          Agreed on Horc, always vocal on the bench – and when coming back defensively he will point with his stick to Ebs and Hall where to go defensively.

          Horc as a player is worth 4-4.5 mil/year in my eyes. The extra 1-1.5 for being a trainer on the ice, steady room presence, and captain is fine by me. Hell we pay $700k to Strudwick to be just that type of thing – and he cant even play hockey anymore.

  • DSF

    Forgotten here is Cam Fowler who is playing 22 minutes a night on the Ducks’ blue line and has scored 12 points in 21 games as an 18 year old.

    Bob McKenzie mentioned in passing the other night he might be the best player to come out of the draft.

    Worth keeping an eye on.

  • JJmorrocco

    Head to head race between Eberle and Hall for top in the league. I’d love to see Eberle take it but I think it will likely go to Hall partially because of all the hype hes had and because he is living up to the hype.

  • Jason Gregor

    LT,

    I really doubt that Corsi numbers will come into play. You said it yourself that it works best comparing players from the same team.

    The worst scenario for Hall and Eberle is that both are in the running. They’d probably split votes then. Carlson and Bob have been very good early, but there are lots of games left.

    If I’m a betting man, I’d say Hall will have the best chance to end the Oilers Calder drought. It would be a great feat, and a story book ending for OIL CHANGE.

    • Dunnonuttin

      It’d be pretty dissapointing if neither of these two won the Calder simply because of vote splitting.

      Wasn’t Gretzky barred from Calder consideration because he had played in the WHA?

    • DSF

      If those two stay together on a line (And I cant see a reason why they wouldn’t) I fully agree! Both Hall and Eberle seem to get better with every game, and I must say I am surprised to see Horc as such a good fit!

      Go Oil! Even if those two getting better means we are out of the top 5 pick! Go Oil!

  • Chaz

    My pipe dream for the rest of the year is for the discussions here at ON to switch from the negative stuff (whining about certain players, focussing on losing enough to ensure a lottery pick, etc…) to discussing which of our rookies will win the Calder. Way more positive and upbeat that way. Hall has been unreal and it’s amazing to see his performances improve steadily with his confidence. Keep it up boys.

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    Seems Skinner has slowed considerably, though I’m sure he’ll be a fine NHL’er I think he got a bit ahead of himself with his start.

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    Re Seguin: He’s currently sitting at half (or less) the production of the first two.

    He’s tracking to have a 31 point in 82 game season, he’ll need a hell of a final 55 games to get in the running.