Hall and Seguin: why not both?

Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin? Tyler Seguin or Taylor Hall? With the Edmonton Oilers a dead-cinch for one of the top two picks in the 2010 Entry Draft, it’s a great debate.

But, while the argument over who the Oilers should take, assuming they retain the first overall pick in the lottery, rages on in Edmonton and on fan sites around the internet, let’s throw a wrench in the works with one question: why not both?

If you’re Steve Tambellini and you’ve just stepped to the podium at The Staples Center in Los Angeles and called Hall’s name with the first pick, is there any reason you wouldn’t walk across the floor and ask Boston GM Peter Chiarelli what it would take to get his pick, second overall, via Toronto?

Or, if Toronto was to climb over Carolina in Eastern Conference standings and the Hurricanes moved into the second slot, is there any reason you wouldn’t tap Jim Rutherford on the shoulder and ask him what it would take for his pick?

Is there any one player on the Oilers roster right now you wouldn’t trade for Seguin? Any two players?

At the very least, wouldn’t it be worth asking?

What’s too much?

If Chiarelli said, "Gimme Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner," would you make that move to get Hall and Seguin? If Rutherford said, "It’ll take Hemsky and Dustin Penner," would you say, "Done deal?" If not, why not?

With the Oilers in rebuild mode, would landing Hall and Seguin be worth two more years of Hemsky and Penner? Do we know if Hemsky or Penner will even be here after 2011-12, when their contracts expire? I don’t, especially when it comes to No. 83.

Yes, Hemsky’s got a palatable cap hit of $4.1 million for two more years, but what are the Oilers going to win in that span?  Again, do you see Hemsky re-signing here when his deal is up?

With Penner, is he ever going to be more than what he is now, a 25-30 goal scorer? I’m not saying that’s chopped liver, not at $4.25 million, but what kind of player will Penner be in two years, at age 29?

What of Gagner? He’s only 21, but what’s his top end? Do you see him as a 60-point player one day? Is he a 70-point guy? Does Seguin project higher as a centre? You tell me.

The way I see it, if Tambellini is serious about a rebuild, about laying a real foundation this team can build on and about reversing the direction this franchise is headed without taking 3-5 years to become a contender, taking a run at Hall and Seguin is worth a shot.

If the Oilers keep the first pick in the lottery, Tambellini needs to ask the question.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

  • Tracie

    Wow! Robin, Awesome article! You sure brought more posts and attention to this article then I've seen in awhile! Can of worms is right!

    In one breath, I don't know if I can support giving up Hemsky, Penner OR Gags. I mean, these guys are in the NHL and do pretty well in the NHL…they are proven and next year will be the "veterans" of the team. Doing this would make us a very young team with very little expereince.

    But, like you say, it also means that we have a great future!

    For me it comes down to how patient am I to see this team be a contender and the answer is not at all patient! I really would like to see improvement next year! i wouldn't mind if we got into the playoffs at 8th next year, and then won the division the year after, and then won the cup the year after that…I don't want to have to go thru another season like this, no matter what the return, I'm just not that patient…

    In saying that, does anyone know who the projected number 1 is for next year's draft? I mean by this time last year, there were alot of people talking about Hall…Traveras was in the news alot as being the number one, but you also heard a bit about Taylor Hall…What does the draft look like for next year? will we be tanking for a weak draft year?

    • Pajamah

      Agreed – great article again by Robin!

      To answer your question, the 2011 draft is supposed to be VERY weak, according to the draft projections. Apparently not only our scouts here in Canada, but also the U.S. and overseas in Europe have reported the same.

      Time will tell whether or not that holds true or if the players show better leading up to their draft year – but the very early projections for next year are not encouraging, so far.

      That said, there is a d-man in Sweden by the name of Adam Larsson that is getting considerable buzz for #1 overall. He is a huge specimen, and has been compared to Victor Hedman or Nick Lidstrom. Of course that is only one player, though.

      (I didn't read all the rest of the posts yet so I apologize if anyone answered your post beforehand. 😉

      • Red Deerian Convert

        When they say weak draft that means the draft as a whole. That doesn't mean (read this next word carefully) necessarily that the 1st round is gonna be a bust.

        Another thing to ask is what do they mean by weak draft, are they comparing it to 2003, or are they just saying that it's weak compared to another weak year.

        Weak can mean different things to different people and it is just another opinion.

        • Pajamah

          I do agree that it is hard to quantify exactly how it will play out. But that said, that is the projection thus far which is what Tracie had asked about.

          The article was in the Draft Preview 2009. That has been the word for the last couple of years, too. One scout said that it looks to be the weakest draft across the board in his 15 year career. There apparently is some depth, but the depth just isn't enough to make up for the lack of true superstars.

          Forwards and goaltenders are supposed to be few and far between. The defencemen are not believed to be as weak of a position.

          Even in the 1999 draft, the last truly weak draft, there were still gems to be found. Now, if you are drafting in the top 5 again next year it should make that easier. That said, in '99 only 3 players in the first round actually made a real impact, and for the rest of the draft, one more player.

          Now, if you were the team that drafted Henrik Zetterberg I am sure you would be happy to have made the pick regardless of how strong the draft seemed at the time, or has turned out to be since.

  • The 'Real' Ron Burgundy

    While nothing is ever certain with UFAs, with Katz as the owner is there any reason we can't resign Penner and Hemsky in two years? Those two are more valuable to the Oilers than any other team, so we should be able to retain them provided it looks like we are developing a contending team. Before he got hurt, Hemsky was likely on pace for an 80+ point season and Penner would have been a 40 goal scorer even if he had cooled off. Hemsky represents a package of speed, skill and size that we do not have, and in Penner's case he is just starting to come into his own and, as they say in football or basketball, you can't teach size.

    Personally, I would rather package Gagner in a deal for Seguin than either one of those two since he is a bigger centreman and is likely going to have a better chance of being a true 1st line centre for years to come. Sam is a talented player, but most likely will top out as a 2nd line centreman in the 60 point range on a true cup contender. This is nothing to sneeze at, but if Seguin looks like he could better that production then I would go for it.

    That being said, I am starting to think that this is going to be like the Gagner draft year where Kane was the clear top forward talent and it dropped off quickly after that. The question you have to ask if we land the 1st overall pick is this – will Seguin be worth a package of two of our top three current players? My guess is no.

  • Muji 狗

    Can't get both.
    Perhaps try for the #3 (Fowler?) though? That'd be sweet.
    Don't give up on Gagner. His projection is still quite high.

    Personally, I'd keep Hemsky but shop Penner this offseason. Hell, shop everyone.

    My untouchables: our 1st pick, Gagner, Hemsky, and MPS.

  • VMR

    Wow would we suck next year if that happened. Not saying it's an entirely bad idea but subtract Penner or Gagner and Hemsky and we're the odds on favorite to draft number one again next year.

  • Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things

    If you don't have enough to pry the #2 pick away from Boston, what about gunning for the #3? It would be a gamble, obviously, but you'd have the opportunity to hit the lottery with that pick and end up picking 1-2 anyway. You could also end up 2-3.

    • Sorry if its been mentioned (haven't read all yet), but the lottery takes place at a time when trading is not permitted. By the time you could make the trade, the order would be set.

  • I like it. Why not? I would prefer to keep Gagner but would be willing if need be. The rest, including Hemsky, I'd be all for. I'm sure Hemsky would be part of any serious conversation so unless you're willing on that front no point saying you want both.

    I think Tambi should really assess this. ~

  • Skidplate

    I think if Hemsky wasn't injured, he may have been moved by the trade deadline and Boston would seem to be a logical choice as they desperately need offence.

    Hemsky, POS, Chourney and our 2nd round pick to Boston. We would most likely have to take salary back so we take Ryder. Ryder pans out or we buy him out with the Dark Knight's money.

    *Prepares for the bashing, looks in mirror and repeats, I'm not stupid, I'm not stupid*

  • The Oilers have to rebuild, I give up anyone on the team not named jordan, magnus and sam.

    I could see Boston going for Penner and Hemsky if we take a couple contracts back, as long as those contracts expire in two years.

    The Bruins have a nucleus to be in win now mode, as long as they get some more scoring. Penner and Hemsky can help them there.

  • The Oilers have to rebuild, I give up anyone on the team not named jordan, magnus and sam.

    I could see Boston going for Penner and Hemsky if we take a couple contracts back, as long as those contracts expire in two years.

    The Bruins have a nucleus to be in win now mode, as long as they get some more scoring. Penner and Hemsky can help them there.

  • If Penner and Hemsky are gone then the club is commiting to be bad for at least 3-4 years.

    Keeping those guys around leaves the possibility to rebound quicker. It's only a possibility, but at least it's there. On the other hand, the opportunity to pick 1 and 2 doesnt come around all that often.

    I doubt the Hemsky + Penner combo could work with Boston, given their combined Cap hit is over 8 million. The Oilers would need to take back another player. Michael Ryder?

        • Petr's Jofa

          I think it's a long road anyway I'd rather it be a little longer to make sure it's headed in the right direction. As Robin points out,this team won't be a contender before Penner and Hemsky become UFAs so I'm all about getting something for them now since we are in a re-build mode anyway.

          Having said all that, I don't think Edmonton has enough to get Boston's attention.

        • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

          Ya it's a really tough call, with Penner a healthy Hemsky and some tinkering theirs no reason this team can't battle for 8th next year *withouth sacrificing the long run*

          and on the flip, without them, theirs no guarantee we'd be picking top 3ish is next year. It's be kind of sillly to trade Hemsky/Penner (ie sacrifice any hope of the PO) only to pick say 9th and 11th next couple of years.

          The only way I'd essentially give up on a season is if we were guaranteed to get a top 2 DP… and the chances of that are pretty slim.

          • Or, the team keeps Penner and Hesmky next year, the young kids have a little less pressure on them from the competition because Penner and Hemsky are still the best forwards, in the 2011/2012 season the Oilers are forced to trade the two players when they cant agree on extensions, Edmonton gains prospects and picks in return. Edmonton has Eberle, Gagner, Hall/Seguin, MPS + the returns from 2 seperate deals

          • Bob Cobb

            I agree, well on Hemsky for sure and I try to get Hemsky on another 4 yr deal after his current deal runs out.

            Then it's Eberle, Gagner, Hall/Seguin, MPS and Hemsky going forward.

            My gut feeling is that both Hemsky and Gagner will produce better numbers under an improved team. IMO Gagner will be at least a 70+ pt player on a good team by the time he is 24 and Hemmer is at least a point per game player on a good team.

            I hope RB is wrong and Hemmer will want to stay but IMO it will depend on how good these kids turn out to be. If they are good and the team turns it around in the next year or two then I think Hemmer may just want to be a part of the turn around….he says with fingers crossed.

          • cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan

            All I can say right now is I have my doubts that Hemsky will re-sign here. I don't have enough to say I know that for sure right now, but that's the way I see it.

          • Rich in the Park

            I don't wanna be "That Guy" but I know Ales Hemsky's Girlfriend, and apparently he has wanted to be traded for a long time now. When his contract is up, hes gone period. I was just as disapointed but really not surprised to hear that.

          • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

            I wouldn't be the least bit suprised. If that's the case I wouldn't mind cashing him in for an all around Dman in the next 12 months. Say a Burns or a Seabrook.

          • I'm just speculating but is this because he had a taste of a winning environment with the '06 run and since then it's been… well you all know how sh*tty they have played since then.

            Or could this be about the all mighty dollar? With K-Lowe out of the picture for resigning Hemsky maybe he will miss out on his 7 year 60 million dollar deal.

            If Hall/Seguin come in and we start a decent rebuild where it looks like the Oilers are finally heading in the right direction will Hemsky still want to head out?

          • Pajamah

            Well like I said…maybe it will depend on how much of a turn around there is around here. Meaning if the younger guys are as good as we all hope the turnaround will happen quicker.

            If the team is showing a marked improvement over the next year or so he may want to be a part of something special beginning to happen. You say you don't have enough to say for sure so is this just a feeling or do you have something that signals he will leave?

          • I sure hope you're wrong. Maybe the sting of such a terrible season will fade if the team finally gets the guy someone to play with. Either way, I think the rookies are better served playing with him for at least one season as they get their feet wet in the league.

          • Petr's Jofa

            Everything you say is true,there are no guarantees. However, finishing 8th next year if the (stars align)doesn't excite me. I know I'm in the minority here, but making the playoffs means nothing to me, I want this team to be a contender.

            I would rather just miss the playoffs in and get a crappy pick with Seguin and Hall on the team than make the playoffs with only one of the two.

            Going the Seguin & Hall route means A) Edmonton sucks and get a high draft choice or B) The team doesn't suck and Edmonton gets a 10ish draft choice. Both would be things to get excited about on a young Hemksy/Ganger/Penner less team.

            On the other hand Edmonton could keep Hemsky and Penner, make it into 8th if they are very lucky . More than likely they end up drafting in the same 10-11th spot only this time you enter the 2011-12season knowing that you need to make a decision on Hemsky by the trade deadline or you lose him for nothing.

            To me the choice is obvious, unfortunately I don't think Boston would consider it.

  • Mike Krushelnyski

    @ Robin Brownlee

    I wouldn't deal Hemsky, I guess I'm one of those bird the hand is worth two in the bush types.

    Am I understanding you correctly that you're saying you would move Hemsky because you think he'll bolt when his contract is up? Is there any reason for that other than the fact that the team sucks right now? I mean he was happy to re-sign after the '06 run, I'm thinking that if the Oilers can squeak into 8th in '11-'12 and look like they have a contending team moving forward he might be fine with staying.

  • In Hall We Trust

    @Archaeologuy

    True… However if we are in a true rebuild you wouldnt want to see Seguin, Hall, Eberle, MPS and Gagner as they future foundation of your teams offence ?

    I wasnt suggesting all of those players would be in the NHL next season.

  • Slapshot

    I also agree with your editorial 100%,we might as well do a complete over haul, instead of a major tune up,If we can trade Hemsky and Penner I am all for it.I would want to keep Gagner though, I see him being the number 1 center here next year and Horcoff being our 3rd line checking center.

  • Jamie B.

    Yeah, Gagner's the only one I'd hesitate on too. If Seguin can be your top line centre in five years then Gagner would be a damn good second one. I know Seguin projects to be a better player than Sam, possibly much better, but that all depends on how they both pan out. Right now it's still hard for me to trade the guy who's at least proven he can be a good NHL player for one who's never set foot on the ice.

  • In Hall We Trust

    Im not opposed to seeing Hemsky and or Penner dealt. A foundation of Hall and Seguin would be stellar. Add in Gagner, Eberle and MPS and all of a sudden our top six is looking good.

  • I wrote on the OMB that it would be sweet to see
    Tambellini stay up on stage after the first pick (assuming 1 goes to Oil – is Bettman monitored when he does the draw????) and taking #2. Would hate to give up Gagner though.