Lucky 13 Through Q3

The season is now three-quarters complete, and that means it’s time to check in again on Robin Brownlee’s Lucky 13 contest.

Rank Entrant Score
1 Jonathan Willis -159
2 Hungoverman -168
3 Wanye -171
4 b.oilers -173
5 Lowetide -175
T6 Motel -176
T6 S.Oilers -176
T6 Chris. -176
9 Steve Smith -177
T10 Jen -181
T10 baggedmilk -181
12 Mojo -182
T13 ronaldo -183
T13 GospelofJon -183
T13 BMcEachern -183
T16 tiderip -184
T16 DougWeightProblem -184
18 BurkeTheTurd -185
19 Dyckster -186
20 The Boy -192
21 OilerBill -193
T22 D -194
T22 cableguy -194
24 Crash -195
T25 BobbyChamp -197
T25 greenlightning86 -197
T27 mesh -198
T27 ubermiguel -198
T29 Scorecoff Hemmercules -199
T29 OB1 – Team Hall -199
31 Kodiak -200
32 oilderrick -201
33 Jason Gregor -202
T34 Oilfan64 -204
T34 captainnapalm -204
36 BUCK75 -205
T37 CSimpson18 -207
T37 duuby -207
T39 Pajamah -208
T39 Ducey -208
T39 Bash -208
T39 Npanciroli -208
43 dohfOs -209
44 Jeremy -210
T45 AZOilfan -211
T45 HC -211
T45 Offthebandwagon -211
T45 James H -211
49 AussieOil -213
T50 RossCreekNation -214
T50 OvenChicken8 -214
T50 rubbertrout -214
T53 MrMackey -215
T53 The Ramburglar -215
T55 Vanguard -216
T55 Rogue -216
57 borisnikov -219
58 Bucky9 -220
59 book¡e -221
T60 Wiseguy -222
T60 Trenton L -222
T60 Stone Hands McOsta -222
T63 Robin Brownlee -225
T63 Travis Dakin -225
T63 Ender -225
T66 Schmidty -226
T66 Heavyd -226
68 toprightcorner -228
T69 SLAM -229
T69 Haboiler -229
T71 I’m a Scientist! -230
T71 Positivebrontefan -230
T71 rindog -230
74 Kyle -231
75 Alaskan Pipeline -232
76 Polar94 -233
77 madjam -236
T78 Quicksilver ballet -238
T78 jayoilfan -238
80 cara -240
81 Scarlett -241
T82 Sean F -242
T82 SportsDad -242
T82 Robinrussia -242
85 Soft Hands McSteeley -245
T86 Henry -248
T86 stuubs -248
88 Tracie -251
89 LuckyLex -255
90 russ99 -257
91 tricksnard -258
92 Miami Dolphins -259
93 m@s f@s -262
94 Wiggleswag -263
95 Bucknuck -271
96 DimebagDave -280
97 Oilcruzer -285
98 Fee Logolin -301
99 treevojo -317

Rules for the contest can be found here. Standings after the first quarter can be found here, and from the first half here.

The standings are based on projected point totals. Projections were calculated based on a simple formula: current points added to the product of points per game and remaining games. For injured players, remaining games were calculated based on the best estimate of their return date. Additionally, I’ve fine-tuned the standings so that no contestant can score worse than minus-25 on a single player. The possible scores range from a perfect zero down to minus-325.

Two races could still have a major impact on the final standings: Ryan Jones vs. Linus Omark for 13th forward (Omark is in the lead right now) and Jim Vandermeer vs. Theo Peckham; they’re projected to finish one point apart. Of course, the biggest impact could be from the trade deadline: any player dealt counts as an automatic minus-25 for the person who picked them.

  • @ Robinrussia:

    I just plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and check a couple to be sure, but the original numbers are in the post linked above. Feel free to double-check anything you don’t trust.

    Or, shoot me an email and I’ll send the spreadsheet along.

  • Travis Dakin

    Tied with the great Brownlee! Validation!!!!!!

    What the hell is a Wanye? And what the hell is it doing in 3rd place?

    Baggedmilk!!!!! You smart son of a b!tch

  • Ender

    K, I’m tied with Brownlee and Dakin now. That means no one can insult my prognosticative prowess without making the obvious implication and incurring unbounded wrath upon their posterity.

  • Steve Smith

    Let me just acknowledge that what I said about this exercise at the beginning – that it’s pretty stupid, because it assigns huge importance to trivial and/or largely unpredictable things (which forward finishes with one more point than another forward, who happens to get traded, who happens to suffer a season-ending injury) – still holds, even though the stat guys are kicking ass.

    Unlike Dellow, I still participated, because it’s fun. But he’s right that it’s essentially valueless. Maybe Brownlee’s coming around to that view now, too.

    • This was supposed to be for fun from the second it was generated. It’s a hockey pool for crying out loud. A monkey can throw darts at names on a board and win it. Look at the tone of the how the original piece was written.

      People thinking it was created for any other reason, like to prove something, calling it “essentially valueless?” It’s completely valueless. How can anything with so many wildcards not be? It was meant to get people involved and have some laughs, right down to the stats guys against the old school angle.

        • You’ve come at this a couple different ways looking for a reaction.

          Oh, and I found the “attack” you speak of. It reads:< ?P>

          “@Jonathan Willis. Glad you’re in, but I’ve got to say I’m extremely disappointed that Tyler Dellow didn’t see fit to enter. He’s busy hacking on me over at his site, and that’s fine because I do the same, but not putting his money where his mouth is by gracing us with his best guess? Bad form.”< ?P>

          Yes, that’s scathing. I’ve never gone after anybody with that much piss and vinegar. You’ve got me. Don’t post here just to try to get under my skin or you won’t posting here. Got it? Good.

    • DK0

      I think the whole point of this operation was to create a game and have fun.

      Hockey is a game that was created for fun. It’s pretty stupid because it assigns huge importance to trivial and/or largely useless skills (skating on ice was a useful means of transportation… never?)

      I don’t think Brownlee is going to “come around” and say “this entire thing was retarded and despite the entertaining distraction it caused many people i wish i never participated.”

      *edit* bah i typed that an hour ago and forgot to click post… brownlee beat me too it

  • I’m not sure it’s totally useless, but it’s probably about 50/50 between calculation and luck, and with that kind of skewing it doesn’t mean much at all.

    The one thing it does is give us an idea of where people think individual players should perform, as well as demonstrate the hopeless optimism of the majority of fans.

  • There’s two guys in this thread that probably earn compensation in the business of pro sport. One for sure anyways. I understand them for being serious about their chosen field of endeavor, and most times they’re not nearly as serious as the fervent hobbiests here. Of those hobbiests, the few masquerading as equivalent authorities to the pros more often than not only succeed in outing themselves as complete D-bags.

    Seriously. If you guys want so much to be in the pro sports business, nut up, pay your dues and get a job in said field. Until then, you’re not fooling anyone.