Up And Down At The Draft

If the Edmonton Oilers opt to trade down from first overall, what kind of return might they get? If they want to trade up from 19th overall into the top eight, what might it cost them?

A good place to start when it comes to answering those questions is with what other teams have received in exchange for moving up and down in the draft. I’ve included some trades from the last two drafts, as well as trades involving top-10 picks going back for a decade.

Previous Trades

  • 2010 – Florida trades the 15th overall pick to Los Angeles in exchange for the 19th and 59th overall picks.
  • 2009 – Minnesota trades the 12th overall pick to the N.Y. Islanders in exchange for the 16th, 77th, and 182nd overall picks.
  • 2009 – Calgary trades the 20th overall pick to New Jersey in exchange for the 23rd and 84th overall picks.
  • 2008 – N.Y. Islanders trade the fifth overall pick to Toronto in exchange for the seventh overall and 68th overall picks in 2008 and a second round pick in 2009.
  • 2008 – N.Y. Islanders trade the seventh overall pick to Nashville in exchange for the ninth and 40th overall picks.
  • 2007 – St. Louis trades the ninth overall pick to San Jose in exchange for the 13th and 44th overall picks.
  • 2005 – Atlanta trades the eighth overall pick to San Jose in exchange for the 12th, 49th, and 207th overall picks.
  • 2003 – Florida trades the first and 73rd overall picks to Pittsburgh in exchange for the third and 55th overall picks as well as Mikael Samuelsson (80GP – 10G – 14A – 24PTS).
  • 2002 – Florida trades the first overall pick to Columbus in exchange for the third overall pick and the option to swap first round picks in 2003.
  • 2002 – Atlanta promises not to select Jay Bouwmeester second overall in exchange for 82nd overall pick and a fourth round selection in 2003.
  • 2002 – Calgary trades the ninth overall pick to Florida in exchange for the 10th and 99th overall picks.
  • 2001 – N.Y. Islanders trade the second overall pick as well as Bill Muckalt (60GP – 11G – 15A – 26PTS) and Zdeno Chara (82GP – 2G – 7A – 9PTS) in exchange for Alexei Yashin (82GP – 40G – 48A – 88PTS).

What Those Trades Mean

While this is a helpful exercise, it only works as a rough outline – every year is unique, both in terms of the players available at the draft and in terms of what each team at the draft needs.

Moving up from 19th overall represents an interesting problem in that most of the trades from that position represent a move of three to five spots. The reason for this is that one team sees a player they like a few spots up, while the team in that spot doesn’t value the available player as highly. The problem stems from the fact that each team is only sliding a little bit, and still getting a player in the same general range – a move from 19th to the top-10 is a different sort of trade. Can the Oilers do it? Maybe, but I doubt it, unless there’s a team out there willing to move from the 10th-13th overall range before the top five picks have been made. The only other way I see it happening is if the Oilers move a player that’s worth a fair bit in order to make a big jump.

Trading down, on the other hand, would probably be pretty easy to accomplish. The Islanders added two second round picks and a third round selection in exchange for moving from fifth overall to ninth overall; the Oilers would probably get a fair bit more if they were willing to move down to the fifth overall range. For a bunch of decent but not outstanding picks, it isn’t a deal I would be willing to consider.

If I were a betting man, I’d bet that Steve Tambellini leaves St. Paul having taken Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first overall, and having snagged another good prospect somewhere between 15th and 19th overall. To paraphrase Wells’s first rule, in any given year the Oilers performance at the draft will tend towards the least exciting possible outcome. I don’t expect this to be an exception.

    • beer goggles

      hey willis, do you not think that the handzus hit from behind would have injured anyone other than hemsky? that was the big one as far as time missed. i give hemsky a lot of slack for that injury. i think it would have taken out many a player. just the way he hit the boards. i think he will come back and play strong. sure, he might miss 8-12 games but with his style of play that is expected. i think he will be healthy. are crosby or malkin band aids to their team because they only played in 41 and 43 games each? i know it’s apples and oranges but you get my point.

  • ugh i cant stand the thought of trading down. All those teams that traded down for and extra second round pick or whatever, i wonder how they fared. The lower pick probably turned out to be a worse player then their original pick, and the bonus pick probably turned out to be nothing.

    IMO, you try to give yourself the best chance to draft an impact player. You dont do that by trading down.

    • Pilgor09

      Hey Karl Hungus, I swear to god I was playing COD against you the other day. Please tell me this is true cause that would be awesome. Killed you like 14 times………

  • DonovanMD

    Hemsky for CLB 1st round pick would work for me. Some say it wouldn’t be enough for Howson, others say it isn’t enough for someone as good as Hemsky. But considering injury history and contract situation I’d do it, and land one of the higher end D in that spot.

  • Peterborough

    trading Hemsky for a “maybe” is dumb unless we want the #1 overall in 2012?

    Let him play his no fear compete is what the kids should be watching and emulating.

    • NamelessNed

      and if his contract expires and he walks away from the club we get nothing? I’m sure Tambo has an idea of what hemsky wants…but a maybe is better than a nothing

  • just some trade suggestions. the draft being in minny the might want to make some noise. how about gilbert vandevelde and the 19th pick (to minny boys and a 1st rounder) for burns and clutterbuck. burns is a step up from gilbert imo and clutterbuck would be great on 3rd/4th line.

    also since phoenix is without bryzgalov. they will need a goalie. i suggest bulin (his conviction is there so he can serve his time and play while on his daypass.) and we get whatever they are willing to give us.

    it would be nice to get rnh and larson this year but i think we should focus on getting more early picks next year (a deeper draft) instead of giving them away for a “chance” at larson.

    • Jaggedstream

      From an Oilers perspective, I like the trade to Minny and would offer it; just can’t see Fletcher wanting to give up either or having a strong desire to pick up gilbert or vv.

      The only way Bulin isn’t here is if he gets bought out or he’s doing jail time.

      I agree that we take our picks this year (move up if possible), but keep our picks for next year as the rebuild wont be done at the end of this year.

  • raceguy

    One thing that jumped off the page while reading the article.It’s all Fla,NYI and Atlanta doing all the draft day deals.How many playoff series have those teams won in the last ten years?

    • Chris.

      and @ phaneufblows

      Jon didn’t even come close to listing all the draft day transactions. I think due to sheer volume the emphasis was on deals involving higher end picks. That is why the Parise deal was not included, and that is why most of the deals listed involve teams that actually had high picks to deal.

      • raceguy

        I understand he didn’t list them all.The fact that all that was listed are deals involving high end picks only strengthens my statement.
        After going over the list again,I would add that trading down high selections is what perennial losers do.

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    Re Hemsky.

    A healthy Camillari and Tanguay with one year left on their contract returned late 1st rounders and a second late pick.

    Hemsky aint bringing back a top 10 pick on his own… let alone a top 5.

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    “Trading down, on the other hand, would probably be pretty easy to accomplish. The Islanders added two second round picks and a third round selection in exchange for moving from fifth overall to ninth overall; the Oilers would probably get a fair bit more if they were willing to move down to the fifth overall range”

    Gee, Gregor was pretty insistant with me that the Oil would have trouble getting even a 2nd rounder to move down even a couple of spots from #1.

    • Jason Gregor

      The Oilers won’t move down from #1. No chance, and when you show me actual proof of a a team giving up a lot to move up from 3 to 1 let me know. It is a fact, no one gives up much to move up from 3 to 1.

      In fact Florida ended up giving up more to move from 1 to 3 in 2002.

  • Marc

    Jonathan

    The move(s) that is most similar to what the Oilers are ostensibly trying to do is probably the Sedin situation in 1999.

    The Canucks already possessed the 3rd overall pick in the 1999 NHL Entry Draft that was used to select Henrik Sedin. They acquired the 2nd overall pick to select Daniel by trading Bryan McCabe and their first-round pick in 2000 or 2001 to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the Blackhawks’ first round pick (4th overall).

    The 4th overall pick acquired from the Blackhawks was then traded along with two third-round picks in the 1999 draft (75th and 88th) to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for the Lightning’s first-round pick (1st overall).

    The 1st overall pick acquired from the Lightning, along with a conditional third-round pick in the 2000 draft, was then traded to the Atlanta Thrashers for the Thrashers’ first-round pick (2nd overall) under the condition that then-Thrashers GM Don Waddell not select either Sedin with the first overall pick.

    So Vancouver gave up Bryan McCabe, 2 3rds in that draft and a future 1st and 3rd to get the 2nd overall pick. Vancouver’s Vice President of Player Personnel at the time? Steve Tambellini.

    • “So Vancouver gave up Bryan McCabe, 2 3rds in that draft and a future 1st and 3rd to get the 2nd overall pick. Vancouver’s Vice President of Player Personnel at the time? Steve Tambellini.”

      Joey Moss has an intrigal part of our organization for a long time. Does he get credit for draft choices or trades?

      Do you think Vancouvers VICE president of player personnel (not GM, not assistant GM not head amateur scout etc) really played a intregal role in those decisions? Without Steve would that not have happened?

      Cmon man. Straws have just been grasped at.

  • Marc

    Gilbert and Hemsky for Columbus’ 8th,a 2cd next year and Filatov. I would love to take Dougie Hamilton or Duncan Siemans with that 8th pick. Siemans especially. Size,skill, meaness. He would pair nicely with Peckham. What a nasty pair they would be to play against.Filatov is done in Columbus. I think that we’ll see the Oilers make a move with Gagne to get another top pick. I think the Islanders want someone to play with Tavares right now. Niederritter isn’t ready yet. They need to ensure that Tavares has a centerman who can get him the puck.Not out of the realm of reason that they would want Gagne. A young player with 3 years of NHL experience under his belt. High skill level. They have a ton of cap space moving forward. Gagne and Tavares are both London Knight alumni. The trade may involve another pick and a body but at 5 the Oilers could draft a player like Coutier or Strome. The Islanders have a big vote coming up on thier arena proposal. They need to sell to the fans of the Islanders something more solid than another draft pick. With Weight now behind the bench the Islanders are selling Grabner and Tavares as the face of the franchise. Add Gagne and it might sell. As it is Tavares may walk sooner than later. They need a center. The Oilers need to upgrade thier skill and size. RNH,Hall and Eberle. Omark,Coutier and MP would certainly make a formidable second line on paper.I love the draft.

      • John Chambers

        No no, that was reasonably coherent. There weren’t any unnecessary CAPITALIZATIONS or overuse of the words DIMINUTIVE, MANAGMENT (sp), or LEMONAID (also sp).

        I do prefer though when people separate ideas into differnt paragraphs. It helps to present a sequencial idea stream and is easier on the reader’s eyes.

        I tend to skip over the “giant paragraph” writers unless Ender, Chris or Wanye has commented on it.

        • Admiral Ackbar

          Wow Mr. Chambers,

          So you’re finished with correcting grammar and now you’re on to structure! Your audacity within friendly banter never ceases to amaze me.

          Agreed with the quantity over quality. I’m still marvelling over the amazing draft that was 2003. The Oil just had to pick Pouliot with the likes of Kesler, Mike Richards,Patrice Bergeron, Perry, Dustin Brown and Shae Weber all going after. I seriously think that the Oilers can only pick well in a draft where they have the first overall pick and it’s a no-brainer. Everything else is a crap-shoot.

        • Admiral Ackbar

          Wow Mr. Chambers,

          So you’re finished with correcting grammar and now you’re on to structure! Your audacity within friendly banter never ceases to amaze me.

          Agreed with the quantity over quality. I’m still marvelling over the amazing draft that was 2003. The Oil just had to pick Pouliot with the likes of Kesler, Mike Richards,Patrice Bergeron, Perry, Dustin Brown and Shae Weber all going after. I seriously think that the Oilers can only pick well in a draft where they have the first overall pick and it’s a no-brainer. Everything else is a crap-shoot.

          • John Chambers

            What? How did you get a hold of a Smart Phone in prison? What does it say about the justice system when They let you out of jail after you roasted marshmallows over a police cruiser while reaking of gasoline and clutching a gerry can the other night?

            I’m happy you’ve taken my writing structure advice to heart. Your ability to separate paragraphs at an 8th grade or higher level enable the reader to 1) get acquainted with the target for your sarcasm 2) observe a well-articulated pot shot, and 3) digest your take on the oft-mused about debaucle that was the ’03 draft.

            Good show, man. Tell Badri I say hi.

          • Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"

            “I seriously think that the Oilers can only pick well in a draft where they have the first overall pick and it’s a no-brainer. Everything else is a crap-shoot.”

            You Really don’t read much on here about Mr Stu Do you! Did you just go through a time warp and miss all the draft decisions by the Oilers since Stu joined the team? I am more impressed with the Picks after #1 that the # 1 pick as I really do not feel there was a bad choice there.

  • John Chambers

    Very good read, Jon.

    That 2008 draft was fascinating. Not only was it one of the deepest in recent times, but there were a dizzying number of complex draft-position trades. Trying to figure the thing out was like looking at the Tokyo subway map.

    Specifically, as you alluded to, the New York Islanders were all about quantity over quality when they traded their 5th overall pick for what turned out to be Josh Bailey (9th overall) and a myriad of 2nd rounders. They must’ve not been all that high on the dearth of defensemen past Bogosian, and perhaps lucky for them they didn’t get too excited about Nikita Filatov … their patience has earned them a steady NHL defenseman in Travis Hamonic and prospect Aaron Ness.

    Not sure how it relates to the 2011 draft, but I’m sure there will be misses within the top 10, and surprises later in the draft. There isn’t an exact formula, for sure, but trying to get as many picks within the top 40 as possible (eg. 1, 24, 31, 38) might be a better solution than drafting #1 & #12.

  • justDOit

    With Hemsky’s uncertain future (shoulders, contract), I can get behind moving him for a good pick. I can’t see him bringing back a top 5 pick unless we sweeten the pot a bit though – throw in Cogs!
    But to also trade Gilbert at the same time is getting pretty careless. He’s one of our top 2 d-men, plays big minutes, blocks shots and moves the puck well. We can’t let that go as well and expect to be anything other than 30th again.

  • Little Buttcheeks

    I don’t see us jumping directly from 19 to the top 10 unless we sweeten the pot with a roster player. I don’t think that teams like Columbus or Boston would want more 2nd and 3rd round picks as opposed to a player or two who can help them win now. I think a successful draft would be landing the Nuge at #1 and coming up with one of the many defensemen who figure to be taken around the 15 to 19 range (guys like Morrow, Oleksiak, maybe Siemens if he drops a bit, etc.).

  • @ Marc:

    Vancouver got the third round pick from Atlanta, not the other way around.

    Otherwise, that’s a pretty good example of what the Oilers would need to do to snag another high-end pick. But, two things:

    1) I don’t think Tambellini has Burke’s wheel-and-deal abilities.

    2) The 1999 Draft was one of the weakest in history.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    It’s unfortunate but i think we’re going to see Hemsky moved this summer. Hemsky will have a career yr this coming season, with Tambellinis neck is on the line to do something of the big picture variety, Ales may have that career yr in a Blue Jackets jersey.

    This two trade move (Hemsky for the 8th, then flip the 8th into a top 4) to get the Oilers where they want to be is a little more expensive than doing it in one deal. Think i’d rather give Florida anything they wanted for their third and Gudbranson. Anyone not named Hall and Eberle may be included in that deal as far as i’m concerned. I’d be very satisfied going into the coming year with the likes of Hall,Eberle,Hopkins,Couturier,Gudbranson and perhaps even one of either Morrow/Seimens/Hamilton if we can improve on that 19th selection we have.

  • SuntanOil

    In 2005 the Thrashers ended up trading down further from the 12th to 16th in a deal with the Rangers. The Sharks took Devon Setoguchi, the Rangers Marc Staal. The Thrasher ended up with something called an Alex Bourret, who never played a game in the show and is now in the ECHL.

    Ouch!

    I’m not crazy about Siemens. I’ve seen him live a couple times, and he isn’t as tough as he’s made out to be. Kirk Leudeke has even more concerns about Siemens than I.

    The guy i like at 19 is still Klefbom. As Big as Musil with a mean streak and a good first pass.

  • SuntanOil

    If Howson is fighting for his job, then we need to address more then one need and take back a bad deal to make it worthwhile.

    What about Souray and Hemsky
    for
    Commodore and the 8th

    They lose a year on Commodores deal, get a better offensive weapon in Souray and add Hemsky. Gives them more financial flexibility after this season and improves their hockey club today. If it doesn’t work out with hemsky, or the team struggles then you can move a healthy Hemsky or Souray at the deadline for picks (Hemsky will get you a first). i realize the healthy part is a big if, but howson has to do something right now.

    As for the Oil, we get a shot at Hamilton or Murphy to make our draft a possible great one, while adding a solid stay at home dman, yes he is overpaid and older, but we have the cap space, and his deal is up when the kids need to be paid.

  • Bucknuck

    All these suggestions involving trading Hemsky or Gilbert for picks scares me. Please no.

    I would like the Oilers to win a few games next year. Trading more bonafide NHL players for something that might have a pulse in a few years is moving backward at this point.

    The Oilers cannot afford to trade any of their defensemen nor any of their top offensive players unless real live breathing NHL players are coming back the other way.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    Aaron Rome might be a good fit here if the Canucks need to clear some cap space. 1 yr @ 750.000. Maybe he’s a step up from Jimmy Vandermeer in the P/V department.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    Gagner, 19 + 2011 3rd and 2012 3rd for Johansen, 8. Maybe swing a deal to go up a few and snag Hamilton.

    Is this realistic? Howson gets a centre further ahead than Johansen – help now (and more productive by draft pedigree) that he knows, retains a first rounder. Gagner is good with a big winger, is a playmaker for Nash.

    We get RNH, Johansen, Hamilton, keep first & second rounders in the deeper 2012 draft.

    I think Johansen scores 75% as much as Gagner next season, catches him in 2012. Gagner can’t play D so no loss there. J might even be able to win faceoffs and PK.

    • Bucknuck

      I would not make this trade. I would be surprised if Johansen scores more points than Gagner at any point in his career. You are seriously underrating Gagner.

      • oilersplumber

        Johansen’s got Gagner’s skill set, more speed, scores better, is bigger, and better defensively. I’ll bet he can win a face off.

        We’ll see, but I’m confeident he’ll be as productive, will play well with a wider range of linemates than Gagner can, and will be much harder to stifle in the play offs because he’s a lot bigger.

        Gagner has no shortage of skill but being small, slow and unaggressive will put a lower ceiling on his success than many think.

  • Rogue

    How about Hemsky for Columbus #8 and Jakub Vorachek? Not my idea, but a friend of mine has connections with Columbus. On the negative side is rumor of off ice issues with Jakub.