Colten Teubert

Colten Teubert was selected 13th overall in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, nine spots earlier than Jordan Eberle. He was one of a number of highly-touted Kings prospects prior to being traded to Edmonton in the Dustin Penner deal earlier today.

What kind of player is he?

From THN’s 2008 Draft Preview:

Teubert is a classic defensive defenseman who excels in the shutdown aspect of the game and plays with a pretty wide mean streak. “He’s not as polished as [Luke] Schenn, but he’s meaner than Schenn,” one scout said. “He’s a nasty guy to play against.” One scout said Teubert might tumble on draft day because he can be a little erratic and compared him to Bryan Marchment. Another scout wonders what all the fuss is about with Teubert. “I think he’s a little overrated,” the scout said. “He has pretty average hockey sense. He has good size and mobility and he competes, but I think his hockey sense keeps him from being a top pick.”

Those quotes have held up pretty well since draft day. I’ve seen early comments on Teubert placing the emphasis on where he was taken in the NHL draft, but the reality is that Teubert is not a marquee prospect at this point. If the Oilers wanted to turn around and move him at the draft, I’d wager heavy money that they would be unable to turn him into another first round draft pick, despite the time he has spent developing.

Physically, the strengths are the same now as they were on draft day. Teubert has good size (6’4”, 195lbs), and he’s still a nasty player. He’s willing to drop the gloves, although he isn’t really a brawler (four fights so far this season in the AHL). His straight-line speed and acceleration are pretty good for a player of his size. He’s a right-handed shot. Teubert was also the captain in Regina and despite occasional questions about discipline leadership has been mentioned as a plus all down the line.

Unfortunately, the negatives in his game have not disappeared. Teubert’s offensive game has been non-existent as a professional. Questions about his decision making still exist. His skating is generally a plus, but as McKeen’s put it a few years ago, “he can be sluggish in pivots and vulnerable to outside speed.”

Ultimately for Los Angeles, Teubert was expendable. Alec Martinez made the jump to the NHL from Manchester earlier this year, and Jake Muzzin has seen action in the show as well. After those two, the Kings had Vyacheslav Voynov, who is enjoying a tremendous season with Manchester (59GP – 12G – 28A – 40PTS, +15) as well as Thomas Hickey. Derek Forbort is also in the system, although not yet at the professional level.

In the Oilers system, Teubert’s best comparable is probably Alex Plante, and I imagine that he’ll slot in at around that spot on the depth chart – behind Jeff Petry and Taylor Chorney, but still an option for an NHL recall. I don’t expect that we will see him playing for the Oilers this season, and given his age and the other options in the system it seems likely that he will start 2011-12 in Oklahoma City.

All things considered, Teubert’s a nice prospect but not a spectacular one, with most estimates having him as a future depth defender at the NHL level.

  • Aaaaarrrrgh! I spent 4 years as a Bronco fan hating Teubert (it was really easy to do) and now he’s on the Oilers? DAMN YOU TAMBELLINI FOR MAKING ME SO CONFLICTED!

    Seriously, he had better have improved his ability to defend against speed because that was one of his most glaring weaknesses in the WHL. That and his uncanny ability to take weak penalties.

  • I love the implicit assumption many are making that the Oilers will be able to shop for UFA players. Even ignoring the five years out of the playoffs and northern climate, can anyone recall the last time the Oilers signed a high-end UFA and it worked out?

    Penner will be replaced with youth, or not at all. This is a deal that pushes the timeline for contention backwards, and there’s simply no way around that.

    • Kodiak

      So keeping Penner and trading him this time next year for even less return or just letting him walk after next season would move the timeline for contention forwards??

      • Seriously....Gord?

        Why this assumption that Penner would be worth so much less next season? That’s very narrow minded thinking if you ask me. It’s very possible he could be worth MORE at next year’s deadline. Did you ever consider that his extra contract year was a deterrent for some teams? Or even an outright deal breaker? I’m not sure what school of negotiations you’ve studied at, but I’ve learned that when you’re selling, you’ll always get the highest value when you have the most bidders at the auction.

        In all reality who, of the Cup/Playoff contending teams, were willing and/or able to carry his $4M contract next year? From all reports, not many (when you consider 3/4 of the leauge is still in contention). A pro-rated $4M contract,
        on the other hand, might look a lot more valuable.

        • Kodiak

          Penner is more valuable to teams that do have cap room for him next year than those teams strictly looking for rentals. There may be more teams looking for rentals, but they aren’t giving as much for them. I don’t see any way Penner gets us a 1st rd pick heading into free agency.

          Mike Fisher and Chris Versteeg aren’t nearly as valuable to a team as Kaberle is, but they got basically the same return as Kaberle because they have term on their contracts.

          • Kodiak

            As per CapGeek, teams with $4M+ of cap space next year:

            LA
            Toronto
            Columbus
            Dallas
            Nashville
            Phoenix
            Tampa Bay (Stamkos is RFA)
            Carolina
            Florida
            St. Louis
            Colorado
            Atlanta
            Islanders

            That’s 13 of 29 teams. And I don’t see too many on that list that were reported as “buyers” at this years deadline. When you’re a seller, you need buyers to get your desired return. In a years time, you’ll have twice the number of potential dance partners, and probably a lot more who would think that adding a player like Penner largely increases their Cup winning potential.

            If I wasn’t being offered the prospect I wanted, I’d have no trouble waiting until next year were at the very least I could expect a similar D prospect in return.

            I’m not sure what Fisher, Versteeg and Kaberle have to do with this deal but… Kaberle’s value was low because of his no movement clause. Same idea as here, fewer dance partners. And I’m not sure how you compare Fisher or Versteeg to Penner. He’s worth MUCH more IMO.

          • Peterborough

            They got More than Ottawa or Toronto did the Torpics will be bottom of the draft. the first will be higher if not mid range we get a second next year in a deeper draft. if Colton turns out to be a 3-4 shutdown mean tough D man then then this is a at least a very good trade for us.

          • Kodiak

            I disagree with you on this.

            Penner has a reasonable contract. Having a player signed is an asset. You give up more for an asset you can have for a longer period of time. You don’t give more for something you have for a shorter period of time. Penner is not the impact player teams would overpay for because there are other teams interested in him, so I don’t buy your more bidders, bigger return scenario.

            Also, teams tight to the cap are able to trade roster players or waive players to make room. There was talk Minny was interested in Penner and they have no cap room. Also, every team but Pitt and Philly have more than $4m in cap room next year. http://www.capgeek.com/charts_index.php?charts_year=2011

            I wasn’t comparing Penner to anyone, I was comparing Versteeg and Fisher to Kaberle.

            Willis, what is your take on this?

    • Peterborough

      I don’t think we need to get top six guys we want the kids to play those roles and we have the cap space to over pay for two year contracts on bottom six roles players. the 1C 1D and 1G will have to come from the draft or a miracle trade (don’t hold your breath).

    • VMR

      I agree about the free agents but not about pushing back the rebuild. We’re on a 4-6 year schedule remember. 🙂

      I dont think the deal was a complete win or a total loss, unfortunately it was another middling move. I hope that between Plante and Teubert one will develop into a shut down tough defender. I hope Stu finds something with that 1st round pick. I do kind of wonder though if this deal (or an equivalent) wouldnt have been there on draft day? Did we really get enough? I dont mind Teubert as a 2nd prospect but I would have liked if maybe we’d added Chorney they kept the conditional pick and we got Voynov/Forbort in addition to Teubert.

      I’ve long said the first real point where we can judge Tambellini is on how he handles Penner/Hemsky. This is a marginal pass, now it comes down to Hemsky. Can we resign him in the summer to a decent contract or trade him to fill one of those big holes, top pairing D or big Center?

  • @ It’s Hall Over:

    If you’re going to quote Pierre McGuire’s views on Dustin Penner you should remember that he wasn’t sure if Ales Hemsky is better on the wing or up the middle. The idea that Penner wasn’t worth a first round pick was asinine from the moment it popped into his head, and it remained so when it popped out of his mouth.

    As for ‘high-end prospect’, I’d have liked this deal a whole lot better if it were Voynov + a first round pick rather than the pick, Teubert and a conditional pick. I think that was in the range of possibility.

    Next, the ‘high-end prospect’ comment of mine wasn’t in reference to the value of the Penner deal, but rather the automatic assumptions that come with acquiring a player drafted in the first round. You assumed I was proclaiming that Penner should have garnered a high-end prospect, and I did not proclaim that. It was an erroneous assumption on your part.

  • Chris.

    who says we are gonna playing LPH next year? sure on the surface the trade is a loss because we lose goals (didnt lose effort tho)this year….but next?

    i dare say MR. dithers has the opportuntiy to utilize the draft picks gained, at the draft table, to upgrade with real time players or even another top 5 pick (giving away a roster player with that im sure). penner was a 25% player we need 100% (horc – as much as i hate to say that) players and we will get some this summer.

    i have no deisre to watch another crappy season of hockey and i bet i wont have to (please jebus!).

  • I think Lombo negotiated hard on this one, but I think both teams got fair value. Simmonds should have been included in the deal if we were to make out like banditos, but Lombo kept him out. At least we got a big body in a position we need, and brilliant Stu can turn that first into much more than Plante, which is what we got for Smytty. Had Stu had that 15th overall from the NYI, he would have got us a real gem there, and not went “off the board” as Prendergast loved to do.

  • @ Archaeologuy:

    It’s a good point, although given the team Plante was playing for I don’t know if we can compare them directly like that.

    It’s good not to dismiss Teubert entirely. He’s a legitimate prospect, not a garbage player, just not a really high-end prospect.

    • Starving Student

      What you talkin about Willis?

      Did any hockey analyst ever say that Penner would bring in a “high-end prospect”?

      Most said we would never get a 1st round pick back. So in fairness to that, the value is actually pretty good. My concern is that we just have nobody to replace his size and goals right now.

  • Peterborough

    He definately fills a need in the orginization and the picks are always good. But this gives someone to push Plante as we have no others like them and hopefully will result in one of them comming in and filling that #4 shut down big hit type guy we so desparately need. none of LA’s other D prospects couls fill that role.

  • Here’s the first thing I noticed when I looked at Teubert’s stats, which are really all I can look at to make my own evaluation.

    His +/- as a 20 year old rookie in the AHL is quite good. He’s +7 right now in 39 games.

    Comparatively, Plante was -11 in his rookie year. Hell, Duncan Keith was a -8 in his rookie AHL season.

    I dont know why his +/- is so good, the Monarchs are a very good AHL team so maybe he’s riding coat-tails, but still, he isnt being exposed in the AHL as a rookie stay at home defenseman (based on that one stat).

    Edit: Just trying to stay positive

  • Jiri Dopita

    I dont hate the deal but I am floored that people were moaning about losing Penner…He had nice hands but he only played when the spirit moved him. he was not going to resign here so getting a first round pick was great and Tuebert could be a solid defencenman in the futre and he is big and mean something we really lack in this team. It would have been nice to move some of the others but it takes two to tango so if no one wants Jones or Foster etc what can you do?
    so to sum up…meh!

    • The Real Scuba Steve

      Like that is going to happen, why do you think we are building from the draft, showing up at Danny Heatly’s summer home that one year blew that out of the water.

      • Seriously....Gord?

        I hear ya. But $4m is not going to buy a Heatley or Hossa. Talking about second tier UFA’s. Maybe a center than can win a faceoff, a winger with some size.

        Fact is, we do have some cap space. A year or two ago most of us would have loved this trade, getting anything for Penner would have been a bonus, much less just dumping his salary.

  • Tambellini, responding to a question about whether the Oilers targetted Teubert or the Kings offered him:

    “That’s I think why you want your pro scouts to have the depth of knowledge of each organization, not just their current players but their minor league players… we were aware of him, he’s been involved with Team Canada at a high level, he’s played with Jordan Eberle, he’s not fun to play against.”

    This would seem to support the theory that Teubert wasn’t the Oilers’ first choice.

    • Kodiak

      Your last sentence is what worries me most. ST held all the cards. He didn’t have to make a move and could have sent a message to the league by standing firm. He could have increased his future bargaing power by saying, “you don’t give me the prospect I want, you can’t have my precious commodity.” If what you speculate is true, now everyone knows the Oilers price is always going to be OBO (and I don’t buy the fact the best offers were going to happen this deadline, so that’s even worse in my mind).

      No matter how high or low you value Penner, ST had the two best players available to a contending team; he still should have been able to get the prospect he wanted. The picks are nice and all, based on what I’ve seen from Gregor’s analysis, it’s fair to say a high end prospect is FAR more valuable than a couple of throws at the dart board 20 or so picks in.

      So, I guess what I’m trying to say is I’m OK with this deal ONLY if ST got the prospect he wanted (which I don’t think he did)… and ONLY if he extends Hemsky.

  • @ DarthForehand:

    There’s no doubt in my mind that the first round pick is the main return.

    I’m not sure whether I value Teubert above or below the conditional pick the Oilers received. He’s in that 2nd-4th round pick range in value at this point, IMO.