WHICH DOOBIE YOU BE?

Devan Dubnyk is getting an opportunity every goalie dreams of: the chance to prove himself in the best league on the planet. His performance this season has been uneven, and there are as many questions now as there were at the starting gate. Can Devan Dubnyk handle the #1 job?

Dubnyk’s SP (.907) is well down the list among goalies with enough TOI to qualify as regulars. Of the 46 goaltenders on nhl.com’s SP leaders list, Dubnyk sits 33rd overall–just ahead of Toronto’s monsters. Nikolai Khabibulin is tied for 22nd and has outplayed Dubnyk by any reasonable measure.

Or maybe not.

OH BOY, ADAVANCED STATS

Nah, I leave that to guys like Willis who know their way around a slide rule. The information I’m passing along here is available via nhl.com

EVEN STRENGTH SP 2011-12

  1. Devan Dubnyk .923
  2. Nikolai Khabibulin .914

Crazy, eh? Dubnyk’s number is tied for 25th among NHL regulars. NK’s number is 36th. Oiler goalies are playing in front of inexperienced forwards and disabled defensemen, and I think we can at least wonder about the prevailing wisdom about DD’s season. Jonathan Bernier, a goalie getting some mention as a possible target, has an EV SP this season of .893.

Of course Dubnyk’s SP shorthanded is .836, and that’s one of the worst in the NHL. And the Oilers PK this season is pretty good–13th overall as of last night.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Dubnyk has his foibles, God knows handling the puck is an adventure and his pads seem to be made of kevlar some nights. However, it’s extremely difficult to backstop an inexperienced group of forwards and the blueline has been short all year due to injuries and poor play.

Devan Dubnyk may not end up being the Oilers starter through this decade, but there’s enough evidence for the Oilers to see this thing through.

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  • Bryzarro World

    What would it take to get Colorado’s first pick from Washington? It may work out that thet pick is #10 and Washington’s is #12. Could a Hemsky deal to Washington get a 10th or 12th pick? Probably not I would think. Unless the pot was sweetened on our part. ST should keep his phone close because of all the playoff hopefuls I think that Washington “must” be the one team that has to make the post season. I do not know how they would sell it to the fans if they failed to coe up short. They are not a rebuilding team. The picks mean nothing at this point of the season where the difference might be a player or 2 that could put you over the top. McPhee has been adamant that the Capitals have the players to compete for a playoff spot. Right now that scenario is precariously balanced on the shoulders of Alexander Semin and Alex Ovechkin. A top 6 forward like Hemky should distibute the load and make the Capitals a playoff team. I would be stunned if they sat put and did nothing come Feb 27th.

    • Quicksilver ballet

      Thought this would be an opportunity as well…. but thinking like this will not be tolerated on this board. It’s too NHL12 for most peoples liking. Making a few phone calls to put something like this together is too much effort.

      If the Oilers have the first/second overall to go along with that 10-12th heading to Pittsburgh in June, adding a Gagne or a Paajarvi along with that 10-12 pick could allow the Oilers to move up to where they get a player they’ll be fortunate to get. Couturier fell to 8th last June, who’s to say Dumba or Murray doesn’t fall to that 6-8 range as well.

      There appears to be little motivation on managements behalf to save their own skin. They’ve show they sure know how to finish in the basement but when it comes to building things up again, they appear to be disinterested.

      • Agreed, save for the Gagner part. I think it gets done by adding PRV plus Petry and the pick.

        I still think that NJ pick or Wash pick would have to be more then just Hemsky in that deal as well. Thinking Lander or Omark and a second that will pry loose that pick

      • Time Travelling Sean

        If you think Murray is gonna fall to 6-8 you’ve been playing too much NHL12. He’s in the 2-4 range. CBJ might even trade down to 2-3 cause they’ve had some wonderful luck with Russians and take him.

          • Time Travelling Sean

            Cause the Blue Jackets have tanked, and aren’t bringing in people to the rink and can’t afford his contract.

            Nail will come, get bored, go to the KHL for 3 years and, then sign with the Rangers.

            It’s what Russians do when Columbus drafts them.

          • Wax Man Riley

            Well, all of the games that a lg dubl dubl coached Yakupov in.

            Or all the games he played as Yakupov’s linemate.

            Or it must be when they grew up together in Nizhnekamsk, Russia.

            Right?

          • Bryzarro World

            Right. Which is why I find this time of year the most tiresome to follow ON – the most outrageous things are said with the most pompous certainty about things we all know next to nothing about. Who knows what is being offered and why trades do or especially don’t go down? I especially love the “trade a boatlaod of garbage for a puck- moving dman or a power forward” posts or the fantasy of long, complex chains of trades that somehow end up with us spinning last place players into top 3 draft picks, ( based on the theory that enough of anything must be worth something). Goodnight.

          • Wax Man Riley

            I agree. This is a tough time for me at The Nation, as most fantasy trade proposals are made with Oilers-coloured glasses, and make very little sense if you look at it from the other GM’s position.

            That being said, at least people throw an opinion or “take” out there. Usually I hide in the shadows as I think that no matter how much hockey I have played, coached, or watched, that the powers that be know a lot more than I do.

            That too, being said, I have seen some worse deals actually happen, than some of the crackpot armchair GMs propose…..Was it a lot to offer for Hal Gill?

            Or how about Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch for a world-class CFP? I know… looking back it looks like a crackpot deal.

          • cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan

            Don’t get me wrong, I’d love it if a GM somewhere believes Oilers third line forwards are exactly what they need to kick them over into Cup country, and are willing to sell the farm for them, but I’m not going to rag on ST if it doesn’t happen – I’m not in the “Do something, anything” school of thought. Geoffrion, and the other guy (who I believe is in the ECHL) is not going to help the Canadians any time soon, and the glorious Pronger trade was a one in a million trade brought about by the brand new cap circumstances. Not in the cards today, I’m afraid.

          • a lg dubl dubl

            Lol i see what you did there, but I do try and follow guys coming up in the draft as best i can be it tv, youtube and other sources on the net.

            Yakupov even though he does have great skills, strikes me as a all me kind of player IMO that i dont think the Oilers need. Like I said in a prior post I was wrong about why he missed the prospects game (injury) that was my bad, I thought it was ego.

            Yakupov’s ego aside I dont think the Oilers will draft him anyway because they need a defenseman with the pick more than they need another forward, they already have Hall,Eberle,RNH,Gagner,PRV, and hopefully Hemsky in the top 6 for the next few yrs.

            This year they need more depth on d, they can draft forwards in the 2nd round and next yrs draft.

            Besides Yakupov is under 6′ “he’s too small”.

  • Talbot17

    I still feel the oilers best bet looking into a goalie is Ben Bishop over Bernier. I think obtaining Bishop is smart b/c you are getting a guy that wont be able to be the immediate full time starter, giving Dubnyk another full season chance to really take the position and have Bishop as a back up. If then Dubnyk continues this inconsistency between the pipes, the hope is then Bishop will take hold and improve to be the starter we have hoped to find for so long.

  • Talbot17

    Watched the post game comments by Bryzgalov on TSN. He states he needs to find a “piece of his soul” to play in Philly. Scott Howson should be doing backflips after hearing those comments today. Columbus’s biggest need has been goaltending. Well Mr. Howson step right up and lets make a deal. Nash for Bryzgaov and Courtier please and thank you very much. Carter can join his party buddy Richards in LA. Columbus by the 28th should be 100% better than they are today in net and up front. Panger always says you need a rock in the net. Howson has got Philly by the short hairs. Go get em Scott.

  • Kubina to Philly for a 2nd and a 4th. Hmmmmmm interesting. Think they make a play for Nash? Scheen or Couturier Bobrovski plus JVR! As per Dregers tweet.

    That is a massive overpayment if it went down that way….Nash = overrated.

    • Quicksilver ballet

      Look at that Paul Holmgren guy go….wish we had a GM like that. He just doesn’t think about things, he goes out and just does it.

      Khabibulin and the Oilers mid/late first rounder (Hemsky) in 2012 for JVR.

  • A-Mc

    What Is this BS about selling all the developing guys to get more picks? Picks are a gamble at best. Selling everyone for picks ensures we sit at the bottom for atleast another 5 years.

    Ridiculous.

    • Because that’s a one of the ways Oilers can move up in the draft to secure more top end picks. Top end I mean in the top ten. Tell me what the difference between a first round pick and a prospect or a developing player is?

      Last time I checked our picks are doing very well for us. More then the veterans and better then the developing players.

      Two more top end picks and this team is set and you can develop players till your hearts content. Until that happens developing players are a chip to be used to improve the Oilers situation.

      You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

      Ridiculous is this organization for the last 5 years

      • A-Mc

        Not even close to a reason to sell everyone. There is only 1 #1 overall pick and outside of maybe the top two, you see a drastic fall off. Selling a team for what could turn out to be a team of cam barkers, is absolutely ridiculous.

        The oilers are only a couple pieces away from tipping the balance towards more W and less L. Selling all available is such a step backwards, it’s not even worth entertaining the thought.

        • Sorry, if you follow your hockey you know this is a really deep draft and the top ten players are all likely to be good players, the top five most likely will play in the NHL the next year.

          I’m not saying sell every prospect we have, but if you can move up in any draft this is the one you want too, but don’t take my word for it. You tell me where the Oilers can get a 1-2 center and a top pairing defense man?

          • A-Mc

            There are a few of you that are building point ontop of point so there is too much here to debate 1 point at a time.

            I see the names of all oilers other than hall, eberle, and Nuge being mentioned as trades for picks.
            1. Picks are a gamble
            2. Picks (especially D) take years in the AHL to develop properly
            3. What do the oilers do in the meantime?
            4. You aren’t going to trade a bunch of crap picks to somehow magically pick 1st, 2nd and 3rd overall.

            Selling everything you can to build a top team of AHL players doesn’t get you any further along.

            Final point: let’s entertain the idea of drafting a full team of superstars. How the hell do you pay for that once they need real contracta(which will arguably come years before the team builds enough consistency to actually mount a payoff run).

            As far as I’m concerned, the oilers have very little room for more picks that are pushed into the NHL right away. We have our super stars and now it’s time to build consistency and develop the guys we have in the AHL.

          • cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan

            In one sense your right about having cap space for everyone. But if you look to teams like Detoit and Pittsburgh you can see the way it works for them. Players will want to compete for Stanley Cups rather than for the bigger paycheck. Players for years have taken less to play with Datsuyk and Crosby. Today for example. Look at neals 6 year deal in Pittsburgh.For Greztky it wasn’t about the money. Niether was it for alot of other Oilers past and present. Sutton just took a haircut on his contract. He probably would have gotten more as a Free Agent. Ryan Smyth? 6 million this year but going forward will probably be under 2.5 per season. Sourays cap hit is gone and so is Brule’s. There is 3.5 million. Hemsky’d 4 million dollar hit will gone. Cam Barkers 2.5 million will be gone. Thats almost 14 million dollars in Cap space just next year. If Bulin goes thats another 3.75 million. Signing Hall and Eberle will not be an issue. MP will not be an issue. RNH will not be an issue. I would think that the Oilers will be looking at offering Eberle and Hall identical contract offers. Somewhere in the 4-5 million per season range for 5 years.

            The Oilers have no cap issues and the cap continues to rise. The success of Winnipeg has increased league revenues. When Pheonix moves to QC it will be even better.I would bet that the cap rises next year by 2-3 million. The CBA will kill these longterm contracts that are front loaded and save the GMs from themselves. The league has a couple of issues but the future of the NHL is bright.

  • a lg dubl dubl

    Sorry Duby, I’ve never seen you as a top goalie in this league. In fact, I have doubts you’d be a reliable backup. I think we should get a divorce. But i’m wrong most times.

  • a lg dubl dubl

    Im up for getting rid of a draft pick or 2 to get a player that will help you win now, but the way Holmgren goes about his ways..2 picks for a older dman thats a ufa at seasons end seems like a overpayment imo.

    He’ll probably pull a Burke and send the CBJs his 1st rounders for the next couple yrs plus Couturier for Nash lol

  • Time Travelling Sean

    Dubnyk will never get a fair chance to prove himself playing behind a team so disorganized in its own end. We have one of the worst groups of defencemen in the league, most of our forwards can’t backcheck, and Renney has yet to institute a team system to organize the defensive zone coverage. Dubnyk’s save percentages show that at least he should be signed to a cheap 3-year deal to play as a stopgap until this team finds a goalie that can perform miracles and win behind a bottom-third team. He may let in the occasional bad goal, but no one (except Eberle and Hall) has been consistent this year.

    As for all the trade-for-a-top10-pick talk, I guess this means the real rebuild doesn’t start until we have some blue chip prospects on defence? By the time your draft picks develop into reliable NHL blueliners, Hall, Gagner and Eberle will have all left via unrestricted free agency.

  • a lg dubl dubl

    I find it difficult to completely give up on a guy who has suffered thru such bad teams since his inception into the league. the defense has never been good, the coaching philophies on goaltending have approached Philly Flyers status and the carousel is forever spinning.

    Dubnyk may never be great or even very good but based on the situation he’s in…. Calm down people he is not at the heart of our problems not even close.

  • I read a ot of comments last year how Jeff Petry might end up being a 5-6 dman but It looks like he might be a top pairing guy.I hate to put limits on how good our young players are. I think Theo Peckham Is still getting stronger . Devan Is one extra save a game from being a decent goalie.I will bet money that doobie will be.

  • I really believe that the CBJ will not even be thinking about Yakupov come draft day. The 2 knocks against him are that 1. He is a Russian born player. 2. He is a Muslim. In the US that combination may be hard sell to fanbase who are as American Heartland as you can get. In Canada we look past these blessings and treat everyone equally. But in US there is an ongoing war in Afghanistan to consider.9/11. And so forth. Could Columbus sell to its fanbase that face of the franchise is Russian and Muslim? It would be hard sell I would think. Howson sits on the precipice of a very large chasm. He is about to trade his best player for draft picks and prospects. His second best player has a 10 year contract and is playing like he would like a trade to somewhere not named Columbus. Scott Howson has a goalie who should be in the ECHL. Would adding Yakupov be in the best interests of this franchise moving forward. I’d take him. But would the franchise in Columbus survive long enough if they drafed Yakupov and put him with a Sean Courtier? It may be the Atlanta Thrashers situation all over again. I think that come draft day Howson is going to take the best Dman available and pass on Yakupov and Grigerenko. The Oilers will say thankyou very much and add Yakupov to a lineup that will only get better as time moves on.

  • BigE91

    It stings a little to see that we drafted Dubnyk over Schneider. And then missed our second crack at him when we drafted Schremp.

    Not that Schwartz or Montoya have been any screaming hell either. Not sure drafting goalies in the first round makes much sense.