WHICH DOOBIE YOU BE?

Devan Dubnyk is getting an opportunity every goalie dreams of: the chance to prove himself in the best league on the planet. His performance this season has been uneven, and there are as many questions now as there were at the starting gate. Can Devan Dubnyk handle the #1 job?

Dubnyk’s SP (.907) is well down the list among goalies with enough TOI to qualify as regulars. Of the 46 goaltenders on nhl.com’s SP leaders list, Dubnyk sits 33rd overall–just ahead of Toronto’s monsters. Nikolai Khabibulin is tied for 22nd and has outplayed Dubnyk by any reasonable measure.

Or maybe not.

OH BOY, ADAVANCED STATS

Nah, I leave that to guys like Willis who know their way around a slide rule. The information I’m passing along here is available via nhl.com

EVEN STRENGTH SP 2011-12

  1. Devan Dubnyk .923
  2. Nikolai Khabibulin .914

Crazy, eh? Dubnyk’s number is tied for 25th among NHL regulars. NK’s number is 36th. Oiler goalies are playing in front of inexperienced forwards and disabled defensemen, and I think we can at least wonder about the prevailing wisdom about DD’s season. Jonathan Bernier, a goalie getting some mention as a possible target, has an EV SP this season of .893.

Of course Dubnyk’s SP shorthanded is .836, and that’s one of the worst in the NHL. And the Oilers PK this season is pretty good–13th overall as of last night.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Dubnyk has his foibles, God knows handling the puck is an adventure and his pads seem to be made of kevlar some nights. However, it’s extremely difficult to backstop an inexperienced group of forwards and the blueline has been short all year due to injuries and poor play.

Devan Dubnyk may not end up being the Oilers starter through this decade, but there’s enough evidence for the Oilers to see this thing through.

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  • Dubnyk is dead to me after that stunt he pulled last night. He lets in WAY too many bad goals. Blunders on the puck handling, that crazy too many men penalty on the pulled goalie mishap, junk save percentage, and a bloated GAA are enough for me to say he failed his audition as a #1 Goalie.

    The Oilers would need to cut the number of shots they allow per game drastically in order to be competitive with this guy in net.

  • A-Mc

    What Is this BS about selling all the developing guys to get more picks? Picks are a gamble at best. Selling everyone for picks ensures we sit at the bottom for atleast another 5 years.

    Ridiculous.

    • Because that’s a one of the ways Oilers can move up in the draft to secure more top end picks. Top end I mean in the top ten. Tell me what the difference between a first round pick and a prospect or a developing player is?

      Last time I checked our picks are doing very well for us. More then the veterans and better then the developing players.

      Two more top end picks and this team is set and you can develop players till your hearts content. Until that happens developing players are a chip to be used to improve the Oilers situation.

      You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

      Ridiculous is this organization for the last 5 years

      • A-Mc

        Not even close to a reason to sell everyone. There is only 1 #1 overall pick and outside of maybe the top two, you see a drastic fall off. Selling a team for what could turn out to be a team of cam barkers, is absolutely ridiculous.

        The oilers are only a couple pieces away from tipping the balance towards more W and less L. Selling all available is such a step backwards, it’s not even worth entertaining the thought.

        • Sorry, if you follow your hockey you know this is a really deep draft and the top ten players are all likely to be good players, the top five most likely will play in the NHL the next year.

          I’m not saying sell every prospect we have, but if you can move up in any draft this is the one you want too, but don’t take my word for it. You tell me where the Oilers can get a 1-2 center and a top pairing defense man?

          • A-Mc

            There are a few of you that are building point ontop of point so there is too much here to debate 1 point at a time.

            I see the names of all oilers other than hall, eberle, and Nuge being mentioned as trades for picks.
            1. Picks are a gamble
            2. Picks (especially D) take years in the AHL to develop properly
            3. What do the oilers do in the meantime?
            4. You aren’t going to trade a bunch of crap picks to somehow magically pick 1st, 2nd and 3rd overall.

            Selling everything you can to build a top team of AHL players doesn’t get you any further along.

            Final point: let’s entertain the idea of drafting a full team of superstars. How the hell do you pay for that once they need real contracta(which will arguably come years before the team builds enough consistency to actually mount a payoff run).

            As far as I’m concerned, the oilers have very little room for more picks that are pushed into the NHL right away. We have our super stars and now it’s time to build consistency and develop the guys we have in the AHL.

          • cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan

            In one sense your right about having cap space for everyone. But if you look to teams like Detoit and Pittsburgh you can see the way it works for them. Players will want to compete for Stanley Cups rather than for the bigger paycheck. Players for years have taken less to play with Datsuyk and Crosby. Today for example. Look at neals 6 year deal in Pittsburgh.For Greztky it wasn’t about the money. Niether was it for alot of other Oilers past and present. Sutton just took a haircut on his contract. He probably would have gotten more as a Free Agent. Ryan Smyth? 6 million this year but going forward will probably be under 2.5 per season. Sourays cap hit is gone and so is Brule’s. There is 3.5 million. Hemsky’d 4 million dollar hit will gone. Cam Barkers 2.5 million will be gone. Thats almost 14 million dollars in Cap space just next year. If Bulin goes thats another 3.75 million. Signing Hall and Eberle will not be an issue. MP will not be an issue. RNH will not be an issue. I would think that the Oilers will be looking at offering Eberle and Hall identical contract offers. Somewhere in the 4-5 million per season range for 5 years.

            The Oilers have no cap issues and the cap continues to rise. The success of Winnipeg has increased league revenues. When Pheonix moves to QC it will be even better.I would bet that the cap rises next year by 2-3 million. The CBA will kill these longterm contracts that are front loaded and save the GMs from themselves. The league has a couple of issues but the future of the NHL is bright.

    • a lg dubl dubl

      I agree withthat statement. Hemsky should be a Ranger. The Rangers first round pick next year and a conditional 2cd round pick next year. Or to Chicago for Mark McNeil and a 2cd round pick this year.

      • Good plan.

        In other words…Let’s trade Hemsky for 2 players that will be lucky to be good enough to crack an NHL lineup one day or a a guy who will certainly never be as good as Hemsky plus a guy who might never make the NHL.

        What a steal.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    As much as we all know Dubnyk isn’t the answer here, the last 25 games should seal his fate/confirm his future as a starter in this league. Throw him into the fire tommorow night against the Canucks and watch him squirm again. The Oilers will benifit greatly from another premium pick coming in June in both 2012 and 2013. Fill the two holes in the top six as well as the 1 and 2 positions on the blueline. Once those positions are filled if someone hasn’t grabbed the job in goal the Oilers could always go out and buy one.

    8 yrs into Deslaurier and 6 into Dubnyk…..what a waste. The Oilers mis managed them both. Devans last two yrs here has only hurt his cause when he should’ve spent all this time in the AHL. Make an effort to bring Holtby or Bishop in this summer.

    Like Paajarvi, Dubnyk was just another kid given a spot on a weak club without having to earn it first.

  • Dubnyk is not good enough and has never shown that he can be good enough. The only time he’s looked good is when the team keeps every shot to the outside. Khabbie is old and done he isn’t the answer either. It’s time the team brings in a number 1 goalie. The team has to pay the price and get a real goalie. Maybe that guy is Miller or maybe you have to overpay and get someone else but these two guys that are here are not NHL goalies so please make a change

    • Gitagrip

      Dithers needs more backbone and less wishbone. However, 20 other teams are saying the same thing you have expressed. Until we get that sensational, outta nowhere guy, we are destined for middle pack status even with all the kids. I absolutely agree with you!!!

  • Stack Pad Save

    When has Dubnyk been given the opportunity to be anything other than a back up?

    When he has multiple games in a row he shows an increased ability to win games. Every time Dubnyk gets more ice time he does better.

    Last game he was shaky in the first, no lie there. But he came on hard in the second and was outstanding in the 3rd period. He hadn’t played a game in 10 days, and the rust showed, give him another start and I would think he would be stellar.

    However I believe the Oilers management/coaches will give it back to Nikoli and Dubnyk will continue to be mishandled and go no where with this organization.

    If you look at Dubnyk’s career numbers they are good, in my opinion if we want to know the truth about Dubnyk he needs to play the rest of this year as the number 1 for us to actually evaluate him on being a number 1 goalie other wise all a fan can do is speculate yes he can or no he can’t. It isn’t fair to judge him on one bad period last night.

  • Stack Pad Save

    anything over .900 is good, anything over 9.20 is great. To his defence he has always been on crap teams, A goalie can’t control the scoring chances against him. I put more stock in a goalie with .916% on a crap oilers team (last year) than a goalie with a .925 on a great defensive team anyway.

  • I think the reason his save percentage on pk is so bad is because of lack of agility.
    On the pk there is way more side to side movement of the puck.Lateral movement is a problem for Dubnyk and it really shows when killing penalties

  • Devan Dubnyk has out played Khabibulin over their respective Oilers careers.

    Further, the only reason Khabby’s SV% looks better than Dubnyk’s is because of that nine game stretch of awesomeness. Other than that nine game stretch, his average (as an Oiler, or just this season) is hovering around 0.900 – AHL-calibre goaltending.

    Dubynk’s no great shakes but based on actual performance over the last few years Khabby’s probably the third-best goalie in the organization.

  • Kubina to Philly for a 2nd and a 4th. Hmmmmmm interesting. Think they make a play for Nash? Scheen or Couturier Bobrovski plus JVR! As per Dregers tweet.

    That is a massive overpayment if it went down that way….Nash = overrated.

    • Quicksilver ballet

      Look at that Paul Holmgren guy go….wish we had a GM like that. He just doesn’t think about things, he goes out and just does it.

      Khabibulin and the Oilers mid/late first rounder (Hemsky) in 2012 for JVR.

  • Dutchscooter

    Does this mean we can stop the love-in for Jonathan Bernier? His career stats mimic Dubnyk (close enough) and he plays with a better defence in front of him!

    • Dutchscooter

      I know and that’s what scares me. We’re going to take an asset like Hemsky and trade him for a player (Bernier) that has the same skillset as a current player.

      That sounds like a familiar dirge around these parts, doesn’t it?

      What I also don’t like is that fans are expecting Bernier to come in and be brilliant. The stats, so far, don’t support that. And then that’ll be management’s fault.