The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with two young centres who are bona fide NHL players in the here and now, and who are only likely to get better with the passing of time. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the first overall pick in 2011, and Sam Gagner, the sixth overall pick in 2007, are both excellent NHL talents and both fit nicely into the age group of the young forward corps the Oilers have assembled.
Unfortunately, neither stands 6’4” and weighs north of 200 pounds. Do the Oilers need to dump one of the two in exchange for an upgrade in size down the middle?
To answer that question, I decided to go back through all the teams to play in the Stanley Cup Finals since the NHL lockout, and check the size of their top three centres. These centres were then ranked by total ice-time and designated first, second or third line. Here’s the list:
| Team | Season | First Line | Height | Weight | Second Line | Height | Weight | Third Line | Height | Weight | Avg. Height | Avg. Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 2010-11 | David Krejci | 72 | 188 | Patrice Bergeron | 74 | 194 | Chris Kelly | 72 | 198 | 73 | 193 |
| Vancouver | 2010-11 | Ryan Kesler | 74 | 202 | Henrik Sedin | 74 | 188 | Maxim Lapierre | 74 | 207 | 74 | 199 |
| Chicago | 2009-10 | Jonathan Toews | 74 | 208 | Dave Bolland | 72 | 184 | Patrick Sharp | 73 | 199 | 73 | 197 |
| Philadelphia | 2009-10 | Mike Richards | 71 | 199 | Claude Giroux | 71 | 172 | Jeff Carter | 76 | 199 | 73 | 190 |
| Pittsburgh | 2008-09 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Detroit | 2008-09 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Detroit | 2007-08 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Pittsburgh | 2007-08 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Anaheim | 2006-07 | Ryan Getzlaf | 76 | 221 | Samuel Pahlsson | 72 | 202 | Andy McDonald | 71 | 185 | 73 | 203 |
| Ottawa | 2006-07 | Jason Spezza | 75 | 216 | Mike Fisher | 73 | 208 | Antoine Vermette | 73 | 198 | 74 | 207 |
| Carolina | 2005-06 | Rod Brind’Amour | 73 | 205 | Eric Staal | 76 | 205 | Doug Weight | 71 | 202 | 73 | 204 |
| Edmonton | 2005-06 | Shawn Horcoff | 73 | 207 | Mike Peca | 71 | 183 | Jarret Stoll | 73 | 213 | 72 | 201 |
| Average | 2005-11 | First Line | 6’1" | 203 | Second Line | 6’1" | 194 | Third Line | 6’1" | 203 | 6’1" | 200 |
One point of interest before I get into the size numbers is how ice-time arranges these players. In many cases, the guy centering a team’s second scoring line finishes third in total ice-time – Mike Peca in 2006, Samuel Pahlsson in 2007 and Dave Bolland in 2010 are a few of the unlikely “second” line guys.
Getting back to the main point, the average top-nine centre on a Stanley Cup finalist over the last six seasons isn’t especially big by NHL standards: 6’1”, 200lbs. Pittsburgh’s trio is the biggest on the record here, coming in at a combined average of 6’2” and 205lbs; their opponents in Detroit are the smallest of the group at an average of 5’11”, 197lbs.
The Oilers top three centres today – Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner and Shawn Horcoff – come in at an average of 6’, 192lbs, just slightly shorter and lighter than average. Horcoff and Gagner, listed at 207 and 195 pounds respectively, are both right around the league average; the still-developing Nugent-Hopkins is definitely on the slight side, listed at just 175 pounds. He’ll put on more weight as he gets older, and the Oilers should be right around the average of our group of finalists when he does so.
Looking at the list above, I don’t see a lot of reason why the Oilers couldn’t contend down the road with both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner on the roster. A slightly older Gagner in his prime might be a solid match for a player like Doug Weight, Andy McDonald, or Valtteri Filppula – he’d be a reasonably good fit as the centre of the secondary scoring line. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps developing as hoped, he might be able to fill the role of a Krecji or a Datsyuk/Zetterberg.
Leaving aside Detroit and Boston – teams that didn’t really have much snarl up the middle when they went to the finals – most of these teams had a hard-nosed guy to complement the two scorers. It’s the role Mike Peca in 2006, Mike Fisher in 2007, Jordan Staal in 2008 and 2009, and Dave Bolland in 2010 all played for their teams. If the Oilers hang on to both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner, that’s the sort of player they might want to tag to replace Shawn Horcoff when the Oilers captain eventually moves down the line.
Of course, other changes may be needed. Detroit has some beefy wingers, and Boston was famous for the grit (personified by Milan Lucic) and, umm, personality (personified by Brad Marchand) on their wings last season. I’ll be doing this same comparison between Edmonton and Stanley Cup Finalists, only focused on the other forward positions, in the near future.
But for right now, I think there’s an obvious conclusion: the Oilers shouldn’t be in a rush to move Sam Gagner down the line because they’re too small up the middle. Stanley Cup history shows plainly that teams can win with two centres – and in Detroit’s case even three – of below-average NHL size.
Off topic, but with the wings gettin the boot by the Preds I wonder if Babcock will be back behind the bench.
NugeforCalder!!
Gagner is fine, I’d love to how him and Yakupov play together on the 2nd line behind Hall, Eberle and Nuge.
@Saytalk. The book is not yet complete on MP. Soft? He is still adapting to the North American game. He hasn’t had the benefit of the CHL to develop the kind of game that we expect from a player of his skill and size. From my perspective I think we need to give him the same time that we are giving Hartsy. Given that Hartsy has more of the physicallity in his game already. A couple of seasons in the trenchs of the AHL should hone MP game to a more NHL style. Be patient. I think he’ll be a 20-25 goal 2cd line winger.
“Looking at the list above, I don’t see a lot of reason why the Oilers couldn’t contend down the road with both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner on the roster. A slightly older Gagner in his prime might be a solid match for a player like Doug Weight, Andy McDonald, or Valtteri Filppula – he’d be a reasonably good fit as the centre of the secondary scoring line. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps developing as hoped, he might be able to fill the role of a Krecji or a Datsyuk/Zetterberg.”
JW this whole article feels pretty askew. There’s not alot of value in your C-size comparative table really…there’s so many other factors and so much more context needed to make the claim that we can be a future contender with RNH and Sam at 1-2. In one really commonsense way you’re right, sure it COULD work that those two could be 1-2 C on a cup team – but not without an extraordinary upgrade at every other position on the roster – almost every spot.
Now I’m not saying that replacing Sam with, say, J. Staal is a magic wand for the whole team at all, but wouldn’t this massive team-wide upgrade process benefit from having a larger, grittier, more consistent points-wise, better FO and PK guy?
Sam is young, has great vision, a great work ethic, and above average skills. But he has average speed, barely average size, below average PK and FO, an OK shot, is rarely physical and requires tougher, or more experienced, or faster, or more skilled (read: better in some significant way) players to open space for him out there to be his effective creative playmaker best. Maybe he elevates his game and proves really effective with elite talents like Yak and Hall stapled to his wings.
But moving forward an upgrade at #2 C would allow us way more flexibility- you could try younger players still carving out their role on the wing (MP, Harski, Pitlick), you could relieve Horc of a bunch more ice time…lots more room to manouever instead of needing to tie the very best wingers to Sam at all times. My two bits.
Upgrade at every slot but the top line I mean…
There are a couple of things I would mention:
1) The idea fans have of first and second lines is often wrong. Samuel Pahlsson was the Ducks second-line centre in 2007. Nobody – almost literally nobody – describes him that way.
The fact is, the “second line” is often third on a team’s depth chart, behind the power line and the primary defensive line.
2) What I’m suggesting is that Sam Gagner would fit into the third slot – the centre of a secondary offensive line. He has above average talent for the position.
3) I’m not arguing that the Oilers can’t move him for a big guy – if it helps the cause, it helps the cause. What I’m saying is that the Oilers don’t need to rush out and deal him away out of some misguided idea that they need more size.
4) I’m also saying that if they deal Sam Gagner, they have to replace Sam Gagner. It might make sense to deal Gagner for a big centre and then find someone else to fill Gagner’s role.
@JW
Thanks for the clarifications, which as you say were there in the original article. I don’t think that thinking we need more talented size through the line up is ‘misguided’, but I do agree you don’t deal Gagner for some random coke machine.
If we make no substantial changes at forward, other than say losing Hordi, etc., using your line construction logic we’d have something like this:
Hall-Nuge- Ebs (power offence)
Smyth/MP/Harski -Horc- Jones/Lander/Petrell (primary D line)
Yak – Gagner – Hemmer (secondary offence)
Smyth/MP/Eager/Harski -Lander/Belanger – Jones/Petrell (energy/crash/leftovers…)
self-reply!
the offensive lines need a bit more beef in one of the Gagner/Hemmer slots
That D line looks barely ‘OK’
The fourth line could be as much of a black hole as it was last year
@michael
The same could be said of Omark. So how long do we wait for these guys to adapt to the North American game? By the time they reach age 25? By the time they become waiver eligible? By the time they get tired of waiting for a decent shot, complain about it and then go to the KHL/SEL? Every player, regardless of where he played his junior career, has to show a steady uptrend towards becoming an NHL player; otherwise we should trade him and make room for better assets.
I’m okay with keeping Paajarvi in the AHL for a few seasons to see how he pans out, but I’m tired of other posters here that continually whine for Omark and/or Paajarvi to get top-6 minutes on the Oilers (centered by Lander no less; there is some sort of magical Tre Kroner line that dominates the league in their fantasies). An NHL club should not run like a developmental team, the Oilers had that in the 2010-11 season and it was outright embarassing.
Looks to me Flyers top two centers are Danny Briere (5’10”) and Claude Giroux (5’11”)……are they having issues with size?
It takes time to develop so let be happy with what we have.