The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with two young centres who are bona fide NHL players in the here and now, and who are only likely to get better with the passing of time. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the first overall pick in 2011, and Sam Gagner, the sixth overall pick in 2007, are both excellent NHL talents and both fit nicely into the age group of the young forward corps the Oilers have assembled.
Unfortunately, neither stands 6’4” and weighs north of 200 pounds. Do the Oilers need to dump one of the two in exchange for an upgrade in size down the middle?
To answer that question, I decided to go back through all the teams to play in the Stanley Cup Finals since the NHL lockout, and check the size of their top three centres. These centres were then ranked by total ice-time and designated first, second or third line. Here’s the list:
| Team | Season | First Line | Height | Weight | Second Line | Height | Weight | Third Line | Height | Weight | Avg. Height | Avg. Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 2010-11 | David Krejci | 72 | 188 | Patrice Bergeron | 74 | 194 | Chris Kelly | 72 | 198 | 73 | 193 |
| Vancouver | 2010-11 | Ryan Kesler | 74 | 202 | Henrik Sedin | 74 | 188 | Maxim Lapierre | 74 | 207 | 74 | 199 |
| Chicago | 2009-10 | Jonathan Toews | 74 | 208 | Dave Bolland | 72 | 184 | Patrick Sharp | 73 | 199 | 73 | 197 |
| Philadelphia | 2009-10 | Mike Richards | 71 | 199 | Claude Giroux | 71 | 172 | Jeff Carter | 76 | 199 | 73 | 190 |
| Pittsburgh | 2008-09 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Detroit | 2008-09 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Detroit | 2007-08 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Pittsburgh | 2007-08 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Anaheim | 2006-07 | Ryan Getzlaf | 76 | 221 | Samuel Pahlsson | 72 | 202 | Andy McDonald | 71 | 185 | 73 | 203 |
| Ottawa | 2006-07 | Jason Spezza | 75 | 216 | Mike Fisher | 73 | 208 | Antoine Vermette | 73 | 198 | 74 | 207 |
| Carolina | 2005-06 | Rod Brind’Amour | 73 | 205 | Eric Staal | 76 | 205 | Doug Weight | 71 | 202 | 73 | 204 |
| Edmonton | 2005-06 | Shawn Horcoff | 73 | 207 | Mike Peca | 71 | 183 | Jarret Stoll | 73 | 213 | 72 | 201 |
| Average | 2005-11 | First Line | 6’1" | 203 | Second Line | 6’1" | 194 | Third Line | 6’1" | 203 | 6’1" | 200 |
One point of interest before I get into the size numbers is how ice-time arranges these players. In many cases, the guy centering a team’s second scoring line finishes third in total ice-time – Mike Peca in 2006, Samuel Pahlsson in 2007 and Dave Bolland in 2010 are a few of the unlikely “second” line guys.
Getting back to the main point, the average top-nine centre on a Stanley Cup finalist over the last six seasons isn’t especially big by NHL standards: 6’1”, 200lbs. Pittsburgh’s trio is the biggest on the record here, coming in at a combined average of 6’2” and 205lbs; their opponents in Detroit are the smallest of the group at an average of 5’11”, 197lbs.
The Oilers top three centres today – Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner and Shawn Horcoff – come in at an average of 6’, 192lbs, just slightly shorter and lighter than average. Horcoff and Gagner, listed at 207 and 195 pounds respectively, are both right around the league average; the still-developing Nugent-Hopkins is definitely on the slight side, listed at just 175 pounds. He’ll put on more weight as he gets older, and the Oilers should be right around the average of our group of finalists when he does so.
Looking at the list above, I don’t see a lot of reason why the Oilers couldn’t contend down the road with both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner on the roster. A slightly older Gagner in his prime might be a solid match for a player like Doug Weight, Andy McDonald, or Valtteri Filppula – he’d be a reasonably good fit as the centre of the secondary scoring line. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps developing as hoped, he might be able to fill the role of a Krecji or a Datsyuk/Zetterberg.
Leaving aside Detroit and Boston – teams that didn’t really have much snarl up the middle when they went to the finals – most of these teams had a hard-nosed guy to complement the two scorers. It’s the role Mike Peca in 2006, Mike Fisher in 2007, Jordan Staal in 2008 and 2009, and Dave Bolland in 2010 all played for their teams. If the Oilers hang on to both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner, that’s the sort of player they might want to tag to replace Shawn Horcoff when the Oilers captain eventually moves down the line.
Of course, other changes may be needed. Detroit has some beefy wingers, and Boston was famous for the grit (personified by Milan Lucic) and, umm, personality (personified by Brad Marchand) on their wings last season. I’ll be doing this same comparison between Edmonton and Stanley Cup Finalists, only focused on the other forward positions, in the near future.
But for right now, I think there’s an obvious conclusion: the Oilers shouldn’t be in a rush to move Sam Gagner down the line because they’re too small up the middle. Stanley Cup history shows plainly that teams can win with two centres – and in Detroit’s case even three – of below-average NHL size.
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Midget Fist!
Good read, but its hard to see these guys surviving the first round of the playoffs this year given how physical it has been.
Keep Gagner. Trading him means we’re counting on Horc to provide “2nd line” Offense. I dont see that happening any time soon.
Not if you were to move hall to center.
“…that’s the sort of player they might want to tag to replace Shawn Horcoff when the Oilers captain eventually moves down the line.”
“When”?
WHEN?????
*Slaps self in disbelief*
Mother of god. Isn’t Shawn Horcoff already a third-line C?
*Assuming of couse Horcoff is untradable, which to my mind he is.
@ Archie
Horcoff’s still going to get 18 minutes a night going up against the others teams best line. The math may make it doable if the return is right for Grange.
@ Arch – one would presume that if we traded Gagner we would get more than a bag of pucks back. The point to Willis’ article was trade him and get some size on the 2nd line C position, not move the existing elements up one line.
Actually, the point of the article was that the Oilers don’t need to move Gagner; they can keep both long-term.
It may still make sense to move Gagner for help elsewhere, but an organizational imperative it isn’t.
I think that trading Gagner is required as he is too slow for the wingers he will have to play with.
If he cant address his foot speed then we should not keep him, as most nights he looks like he is skating with a boat anchor tied to him……..most confounding given small players are usually fast?
Very interesting approach Mr. Willis.
I like it.
I sure wouldnt rush to trade Gags unless we have a great deal coming back.
Thanks for the insight.
@Gord
Actually I really dont think that’s the point of the article at all. I dont even think you’re in the same ballpark as the point.
@Quick
The return for Gagner has always been speculated to be a defenseman, not a forward. The offense he provides from the C position would disappear into nothingness. Not impossible to overcome, but worth noting.
Gagner has to stay unless an equal talent emerges. That being said, I still worry about his skating. Smyth isn’t fast but is an effortless skater (ok when not exhausted) and turns very quickly. He can get in front of an opponent on the boards to keep a cycle going.
I don’t know if you see Gagner this way JW, and I agree that some heavier wingers might be needed in the corners at some point, unless the lighter guys can figure out a way to get the puck and keep it longer.
I think the point is find players who can contribute points. If they produce at a proper pace, then their size shouldn’t be a determining factor.
Finding players who have that competitive element should be the next concern, kids who are willing to do the gritty things necessary to continue production in the playoffs.
Again size is not an indicator of this. For proof look no further than philidelphias gritty tiny tots up the middle and how they compete against pitsburgs bigger centres.
Trading skill and production for physical size is just silly… But it sure is an easy way to critique players.. /sigh
Double post 😛
Good article, Willis
We’re a group of fans with an irrational size envy. Looking around the league at young C’s who one might covet as a replacement to Gagner, none of Derek Stepan, Marcus Johansson, Kyle Turris, Derek Brassard, or Cody Hodgson are any better, or any bigger.
Sure you might deal Gags for a D if the plan is to move Hall to C, or if you magically acquire Logan Couture, but otherwise the grass is probably greener under your feet.
You already know what I’m going to say
Brandon Sutter
Hey where’d that lovely tilted kilt lady go to
Why has nobody answered you. I miss her too.
Look at the top 2 centers of teams that won the cup , there is always a bigger two way center
Boston Krejci Bergeron
Chicago Toews Sharp
Pittsburgh Crosby Malkin
Detroit- Datsyuk Franzen
Anaheim Getzlaf Macdonald
You may have missed this in the article, but I actually did look at the top two centres of the teams that won the cup. It was sort of the point of the article.
And if you look at the centres (they’re listed above, and I went the time to go back and confirm how many minutes each played and who was taking faceoffs and so on) you’ll find your list is inaccurate.
Question might be are we big enough in all our forward positions? Seems to me that al of Boston,Pitts, and Detroit have beefy wingers if not centers. Not sure what we have can handle the rough going in a 7 game series of pounding.
@Rondo
Can you do something for me quickly, just so the rest of us can judge your comments with some idea of where you are coming from?
Please define the role of the 2nd line for us.
Thanks!
Size isn’t that important, it’s the size of the compete inside the player that wins battles. Players with the highest compete level aren’t always 6’2+.
Given The # 1 center for Edmonton is skilled, you need a two way center that is big that plays against the #1 center of the other team. You look at the most complete players in the league Crosby Toews Datsyuk Bergeron they are all two way players that are physically tough. Yeah I know they are #1 centers but you really need that side when you have a very skilled smallish center RNH. Look at Vancouver Sedin skilled then you have Kesler a two way player. Successful teams always have this combo. Years ago I was saying go after Hanzal , now the ship has sailed I think Brandon Sutter could fill that role. Having for example Hall RNH and Eberle was One line the other Pääjärvi Sutter and Yakupov . I’m not to worried about Brandon getting point.
@Rondo
So the point of a second line is to check and be defensively responsible? Not to score and take pressure off the 1st line?
Honestly?
Madjam is that you?
Once again you are right. Two lines that could score a goal really easily (which is the way our first and second line are coming together) will be tough to beat. Sure they won’t be huge but if they compete hard and are dangerous does it really matter that they give up the odd goal because of defensive problems. If we are in the business of scoring more than the other team then we should be fine. Our third line should be assembled to shut others down and our first two can go out against anyone and give up a goal but score more than they are giving up, which IMO is very likely.
@Clyde frog
I’m not going to convince you regarding Brandon Sutter. You look at points only so in your mind Gagner is superior. I think your wrong and you think I’m wrong.
nope brandon sutter is terrible. I watched this kid since he played midget. Never understood why he got drafted as high as he did. Let him run around hitting. If he doesnt start producing more he will turn into Torres.
Oh and Brandon Sutter is 183lbs, Gagner is 194. Size argument is gone. In the world of physics Mass is in the equation and Height is not. So If you want to say he is a better hitter and plays bigger good. That is your argument. But he doesnt produce as much as Gagner.
Isnt the best all around center on the team Gagner. (corsi – good, Plus minus – best on the team, POD – near top of team, 5×5 per 60 – 2nd on team. You have to wait another year for RNH to progress further and get use to tougher minutes.
Look at your center options, who do you want to take the hard minutes. So If he is gone for D who is available to play these minutes?
Brandon Sutter? Really, that guys production is terrible.
Gagner is average weight and his height is just below average. So using his size as an excuse is terrible, and Nuge will grow to the same size slightly taller. Our Centers are and will not be as small as you think.
There are players in the league that can score goals and points when they don’t mean much then there are players that score important points. Gagner is a regular season player. Sutter is a playoff player.
Are you sure? Brad Marchand with his monster size of 5’9-190 dominated the playoffs last year. Meanwhile Joe Thornton who is 6’4-235 has yet to impose his will in such a way. These are just two examples but what could possibly make you believe that Sutter would be any better than Gagner in the playoffs?
Ah yes. Sutter and his long history of great playoff performances.
Brent, is that you?
“Gagner is a regular season player. Sutter is a playoff player”
It must be 4:20 today to make statements like these. Wowzers
I really like Brandon Sutter but I see absolutely no reason to hammer on Gagner as “a regular season player.” He was a pretty good playoff performer in junior and he might very well be a good playoff performer in the NHL.
I don’t think it’s necessary to replace Gagner with like production, in fact Gagner may be used to bring another top pairing D-Man.
Gagner may even be packaged to bring in a gritty tough winger and a legit 3rd line center.
Hypothetical example – Clutterbuck and Brodziak for Gagner and Paajarvi.
Sorry but that boat anchor Horcoff is here to stay so you might as well use him in a 4th line role or find a UFA for that 2nd center or move Hall over.
Edit-That’s if I would move him at all. Gagner is valuable to the Olers.
If I’m Minny and I get that offer, I’ve got my assistant G.M. dialing the league office before I’m even off the phone with you.
Well lets assume we draft Yakupov. Our top two lines would be
Hall,RNH,Ebs
Hemmer,Gags, Yakupov
Looks like plenty of scoring but physically, Hall is the only one with some size. I think we need to get bigger and there doesn’t seem to be much of a market for Hemmer while there does seem to be some interest in Gags.
Besides Hemskys old injury and Hall’s injurys due to his reckless nature.
Why all of a sudden does size come into the equation? I’m not sold that your top two scoring lines have to be huge!
I have not seen Gagner out for an extended period of time because of his size! Nor did I see Eberle or RNH be out for an extended period of time because of size!
Do I think Size is important, yes. In your 3 to 4 spots and to have some type of push back.
But to say you need a big body in the middle is just dumb
We have our Gretzky. Who’s our Messier? We need some edge on the top two lines.
Last I checked our compared Mark Messier was drafted 1st overall in 2010. He’s got a lot of bite, scores goals and like Messier has yet to play a full NHL season in his career. Hopefully this player does something Messier never did….. win SIX stanley cups with the Edmonton Oilers!
Hypothetical:
Oilers first + Gagner for Blue Jackets second + Johansen
I agree its an overpay for us and not even sure the Jackets would do it. Maybe if they throw in Marc Methot?
Gagner alone for Johansen, but why make that trade? Doesn’t seem logical to lose Gagner for Johansen then lose our first for a second that’s like taking 5 steps back.
Yeah I also thought it was an overpay but if I am Columbus I think Johansen is a career center and I wouldn’t give him up for a smaller center with an arguably lower ceiling. Something more that Methot for a throw in Perhaps? Oilers would come out of that with a franchise defenseman, big 2nd line center with tons of potential, and another solid d-man. Then it RNH-Johansen-Horcoff as top three and a well-rounded D-core to work from. Takes care of d and center weak areas with one trade.
If I’m reading you correctly, and that’s CBJ’s second round pick you’re talking about, there’s no chance I do it if I’m Edmonton.
I wouldn’t move Yakupov straight across for Johansen. And I certainly wouldn’t move Gagner for a second round pick.
No, I mean 1st overall (Yakupov) + Gagner for 2nd overall (Murray) + Johansen + something more. Who do you think CBJ would have to throw in to make this work for the Oilers?
I think it really depends on Columbus’ comfort level with taking Yakupov first overall. Even before the lottery, people were talking about the likelihood of CBJ moving the first overall pick because they weren’t in love with the idea of drafting Yakupov.
My guess – and it’s just a guess – is that Columbus doesn’t have a lot of interest into moving into the first overall slot.
Yeah fair enough, good point. I guess I would just much rather see a guy like Johansen in that 2nd line spot, then we could stop trying to justify that our centers are not undersized.
Parise and Gagner are approx same height and weight. There is nothing wrong with Gagner.
There are probably a few more nhl players that are the same height and weight as Gagner that aren’t named Parise. Probably a few more that aren’t in the nhl as well. Doesn’t conclude anything.
With that said I agree there is nothing wrong with Gagner, but just suggesting that there is a lot of time spent deciding whether or not the current center line up is up to the challenges of the playoffs, and I guess only time will tell.
I guess what I’m saying is our top 2 centers are doable. The bottom 2 are not, however.
You mean other than Parise scoring 31 goals and 62 points in his second NHL season and followed it up with 65 and 94 point seasons?
Yeah, Gagner is just the most.
Jeebus.
You are right. Height and weight are measured in points.
Was talking size. Was not comparing the players – jeebus, that’s nuts. If we had Parise and NJ has our beloved Gagner, would anyone complain about Parise’s size?
For some reason I’m getting the feeling Murray is a little overrated. 2 jacks for king is not worth it.