Tobias Rieder is another of Stu MacGregor’s "after 100" picks. He is tracking very well after being selected outside the top 100 in his draft year and he could be a "draft steal" if he can keep it going.


We don’t have access to TOI totals for junior leagues (or the AHL) but do have access to PP, PK and even strength totals for these young men. Even strength totals are the best indicator of future success, mainly because graduating juniors are extremely unlikely to get PP time as young NHL players (Hall and the Nuge being exceptional).

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Lets compare this young Tobias Rieder fellow at evens to famous Oiler prospects at the same age:

  • Curtis Hamilton 62, 17-33-50 .806ppg
  • Tobias Rieder 60, 26-19-45 .750ppg
  • Tyler Pitlick 56, 22-19-41 .732ppg
  • Rob Schremp 62, 18-26-44 .710ppg

So we know that Rieder–despite an impressive 18-year old season in the OHL, is "in the range" with 2nd round picks Hamilton and Pitlick and ahead of 2004 first round pick Rob Schremp at the same age.


That’s true, we don’t have TOI totals to compare and the teams each played for had a range of GF and played in leagues where offense was more prevalent. It’s also true that Rieder is a PK demon and that has value, plus he’s ripping it up in the playoffs and that excites people who believe "clutch" is more than a pedal on a motorized vehicle.

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It was a brilliant pick–a year after he was drafted Rieder is performing like a second round pick. He has certainly covered his draft bet and more plus we know he has a nice range of skills. This is an outstanding pick–but he isn’t Nail Yakupov.

Yakupov–in his draft year–went 42, 18-21-39 .929 and next season will either be well over 1/1 at evens or in the National Hockey League.


Stu MacGregor might be the best friend Oilers fans have ever had, and Tobias Rieder is only the latest "possible" gem in the MBS songbook. We should not expect a player who can keep up offensively with Hall, Ebs and the Nuge. We can hope that he–or Hamilton or Pitlick–grind their talents into something useful in OKC.

There’s no shame in that–hell the Oilers since 2008 appear to have done great work in rounds 4-6. Rieder looks to join Teemu Hartikainen and Tyler Bunz as legit NHL prospects with a real chance to have a career in the best league on the planet.

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That’s a victory. Absolutely.




Our aim is true beginning today at noon, Team 1260. And don’t forget the archived edition with appear at the Nations in a timely fashion. Scheduled to appear:

  • Corey Pronman, an extremely valuable resource for draftniks. He writes for Hockey Prospectus and his opinion has high value. You can leave questions in the comments section of this blog or tweet @lowetide_ or even email me at [email protected] to pass along questions for Corey and all of our guests.
  • Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report. Kirk will discuss the 2011 entry draft and the movers and shakers from a year ago, including Rieder. Kirk has the eastern seaboard covered well so I’ll talk to him about some of those college kids who are eligible to sign pro contracts too.
  • Kelsey Myroniuk from FC Edmonton. We’ve had a number of requests for some FC coverage, so we’ll talk to Kelsey about the excitement building for this FC season. The Eddies grabbed their first point of the season in Puerto Rico and look to get their first win tomorrow at Clark Park.
  • Kent Simpson color commentator for the Edmonton Oil Kings. The Oil Kings are ripping up the playoffs and appear to be on a collision course with the Portland Winterhawks in the WHL final. Moose Jaw’s Warriors have incredible fans and they’re saying "not so fast" and we’ll discuss the series with Mr. Simpson.
  • Jonathan Willis from the Nations and the world. We’ll talk NHL, the draft, Oilers and more with possibly Jon. I’ll ask him about recent ON articles that discussed Ryan Smyth’s role on the Oilers next season and the issue of size at center.
  • Kent Wilson from Flames Nation and the Nations. We’ll talk Flames off-season and put Kent in the middle of the room under a bright lamp and get the real scoop on Brent Sutter’s coaching abilities. We’ll also ask about Sven Baertschi and the craziness of this year’s playoffs.

Noon to 2 today, Team 1260. Hope you can tune in.

  • paul wodehouse

    LT…nice read …nicer images

    question sir and i’m speaking as the devils’ advocate here …would the number overall pick ever translate into an NHL number one stud Dman if it’s packaged right and traded ?

  • Lowetide

    I don’t know. Derek Zona suggested OEL in PHX awhile ago and I dismissed it but then EDM won the lottery. Getting an OEL or a Yandle would be huge and the number one pick is massive for an organization.

    Answer: I don’t know. lol.

  • Lexi

    Rieder looks like a guy who fell through the cracks on draft day as he seemed to be projected as a second rounder at times last year. It seems to me that Germans historically have over achieved in the league.If he could have a career close to J Heccht then he will be Stu’s greatest find.

    LT, I would love it you asked Corey Pronman about Henrik Samualson and why his ranking has been falling.

  • Dan the Man

    If you just look at goals he looks pretty good.

    He scored 16.6 percent of his teams goals PP and even..Hamilton 8.3 Pitlick 10 hall in his draft year 13.5.By those metrics he looks a whole lot better than the two second rounders and measures pretty good against Hall.

    I have watched a lot of Ranger hi lites and he appears to be very much like Eberle in the way he scores

  • Lowetide

    Are H Samuelsson and Moroz 3rd round picks? Or are they more late 2cd round picks. The OIlers really could use kids like them in thier bottom 6 in the future. They have the skill,gamesmanship and size to compete at the next level. Could we see the Oilers perhaps drafting Moroz with the 31st pick? We have a stable of talented dmen coming through the system and the top six in Edmonton looks fairly locked for the next few years.I believe that we need to look at adding to our depth at the foward position in the bottom 6. We have the likes of Hamillton and Pitlick and Lander coming up to fill those spots in the next few seasons. Travis Ewanyk looks to be a keeper in the 3rd line role as his career develops. Perhaps the focus for the Oilers this year should be less about skill and more about character and grit in the later rounds.

  • Dan the Man

    One thing that really impressed me is that he very nearly doubled (from .75 to 1.4) his points per game from his first year in the OHL to his second. Always a good sign.

    • stevezie

      So would I, but I don’t think we could realistically add anything to the number one that would make St Louis consider it.

      If you just look at Rieder’s totals since new years they are ven more amazing, but in fairness I’m sure most players points increase with their experience.

  • Dan the Man

    Hey LT,
    How does Rieder’s numbers compare to Kris Pelss? He started even lower in the pack.

    And any word on the leg injury he left with last night?

    I would also like to know way Samuelsson is rated so low. Seem to have the Character, size and pedigree.

  • justDOit

    LT, good article but I’m not sure I buy into some of the comps you laid forth.

    Curtis Hamilton’s numbers came from this 4th full season in the WHL, it was essentially his “19 yr old” season even though he didn’t actually turn 19 until early December.

    Tyler Pitlick is in a similar boat, it was his 19 yr old season as well since he was only 18 for the first month of the season.

    In my mind anyway, Rieder is outpacing both of them and is actually close to par with Jordan Eberle’s performance so far in his CHL career, who didn’t really explode statistically until his final 19 yr old season. I’ll be curious to see if Rieder does the same.

    At the end of the day though, I guess I’m splitting hairs here. I’m just glad that we have him in our prospect pool. 🙂

    • justDOit

      The next playoff or regular season games that the ‘Yotes play. So if they play another 8 PO games, he will have to serve the rest of his suspension next season. He also can’t play in any preseason games during a suspension.

      He also can’t represent Canada at the WHCs, but that’s only because he’s not good enough to make the team!

  • Dipstick


    You need to check your facts before you spout off. I’m from Saskatoon and I know Hamilton, he played here for 4 years and the numbers quoted in the article are correct. If you want to check his stats, Hamilton in his 4th year, which was 2010-11 he played about the same number of games around 62, because he was part of Team Canada. He amassed something like 82 points in his 4th year so a clip of more then a PPG.

    • Lexi

      I don’t think the trade makes sense as all it takes is one or two other teams having as much bad luck as Columbus had this year and all of the sudden you’ve given up a No. 1 pick for the 3rd or 4th pick. There are a lot of teams that might be pulling a tank-o-rama for Mackinnon after the All Star break next year (one of whom might be the team 3 hours south of here)

      Plus I think it’s great to have our elite guys be as close to the same age as possible to ensure their primes are around the same time before their UFA status kicks in.

    • Lexi

      IMO that would be a terrible move to make because of the message you would be sending to the current young stars of the team.

      “We’re REALLY hoping we suck again next year guys, otherwise this move makes no sense!”

      “Hey Hall, we know you can’t stand to lose and this season was utterly painful to go through, but could you be a champ and do it one more time? No hard feelings, yeah?”

  • Giant Squid Overlord

    @ Justin

    “Would you trade Oilers # 1 pick 2012 to Columbus for their top pick in 2013?”

    It would be an interesting move, but it would take some big balls

    Columbus would have the # 1 and #2 pick in this years draft.

    Edmonton would be hoping Columbus finishes last again, which is possible.

    At worst it looks like a top 3 pick for 2013. So are the top 3 players ahead of Yakupov.? Also it would be likely that Edmonton will have a top ten pick in 2013.

  • Reg Dunlop

    @ Digger

    Huh? How does this deal send a negative message to the oil youngsters? Expecting Columbus to finish last next year in no way reflects on our squad. It does give us a better chance at drafting a once in a generation prospect rather than whatever they do with this years pick. In fact it should indicate that management expects us to finish well out of a lottery position next year.