FTHM IV: RYAN MURRAY

Do the Edmonton Oilers need a mobile, puck-moving defenseman who can log big minutes and be a fixture in their top four for the next decade? Sure they do. Do they need to use the first overall pick in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft to acquire that player? No they don’t.

That’s what history tells us and that’s why I can’t see the Oilers passing on a forward like Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk to take Ryan Murray of the Everett Silvertips, as fine a prospect as he is, when they step to the podium on Friday with the first pick for the third straight year.

Yes, Murray, mature beyond his years and having already shown he can play with men at the World Championships, has been pegged as the best blue line prospect of this draft class, but is there clear separation between him and four or five others, including Griffin Reinhart of the Edmonton Oil Kings? No.

Might the Oilers be able to get a defenseman who turns out to be just as good as Murray later in the draft? Yes. One need only look at players who’ve won the Norris Trophy over the past 17 years – not the only measuring stick but a reasonable one – to see that.

Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators, who claimed the Norris Trophy Wednesday, was taken 15th overall in 2008. Nicklas Lidstrom, a seven-time winner in that stretch, went 53rd in 1989. The other winners in that span have been Duncan Keith (54th), Zdeno Chara (56th), Scott Niedermayer (3rd), Chris Pronger (2nd), Al MacInnis (15th), Rob Blake (70th), Brian Leetch (9th) and Chris Chelios (40th).

The Oilers most certainly need the kind of defenseman Murray might turn out to be three or four seasons from now, but they don’t, and likely won’t, pass on Yakupov or Galchenyuk to get him Friday.

HOW HE RATES

NHL Central Scouting: No. 2 among North American skaters

The Hockey News: No. 4

International Scouting Services: No. 3

McKeen’s Hockey: No. 4

Red Line Report: No. 4

TSN: No. 12

THE SKINNY FROM CSS

Despite an injury shortened season in 2011-12, Murray led all Everett defensemen with 31 points (9-22-31) in 46 games.

Murray represented Canada at the 2012 World Junior Hockey Championships collecting two assists in five games as Canada captured bronze. He was one of two 2012 draft-eligible players selected to represent Canada at the tournament and was the only player on the team in his first year of draft eligibility.

At the start of the 2010-11 season, he was named captain of the Everett Silvertips becoming the youngest captain in franchise history. In 70 games, he led the team with a plus-18 rating and led all defensemen with 46 points (6-40-46). Over his final 36 games he tallied 33 points (4-29-33) helping the Silvertips qualify for the 2011 playoffs.

WHAT THEY SAY

NHL Central Scouting’s B.J. MacDonald

"I think Murray is more like a (Scott) Niedermayer. He just does everything under the radar and so smooth you hardly notice it. His skating is probably the best in the (WHL), but you don’t really notice that so much because you almost take it for granted he’s been there for three years.

"He never gets out of position and I’ve never seen him lose a one-on-one battle. He’s always, defensively, in the right spots. He just does everything so seamlessly, he reminds me of Niedermayer only because he does everything so well at such a high level and after a while, you don’t even notice it."

MACGREGOR’S TAKE

Scouting Report: "I see a solid two-way defenseman who makes a good first pass. He’s a great skater who gets up the ice quickly to follow up on the offensive attack."

Projection: "He’s probably a top-two or top-three guy."

Weaknesses: "He’s only six feet and a bit. What will be the determining factor is if he can be that shutdown-type D-man you require in that sort of position."

NHL Comparable: "Some people say he’s like Mark Howe."

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

  • The Soup Fascist

    While I don’t think the Oil would take Reinhart at #1 – talk about putting pressure on the kid – a lot changes in a year.

    While everyone was debating whether to take RNH / Landeskog / Huberdeau or Larsson last year, the best player in that draft may turn out to be Dougie Hamilton, the still 18 year old D-man who put up almost 1.5 ppg last year and will be a beast, already 6’4″ and 200 lbs.

    Granted he did not play an NHL game yet, but this kid took a huge step last year and will almost certainly be a Bruin this year, as he was a man among boys in the OHL in 2011-2012.

    Now to be clear I still think RNH was the right pick for the Oilers and I would not draft a “Dougie” out of principle (change it too Doug or Douglas, for the love of God) but if everyone had mulligans I don’t think “Dougie” would make it out of the top three. Not saying Reinhart is going to make the same step, but, again, in a couple of years a LOT can change in these kids. You can’t take him at #1 but with his size, skating, pedigree, intelligence, etc, I would not be too quick to dismiss him as a very high end player.

  • “If Alex Galchenyuk is in the Oilers plans, why wasn’t he brought to Edmonton for an interview?”

    I wrote an entire item about this June 7. The Oilers talked to Galchenyuk at length this season and one of their scouts, Kent Hawley, is friends with his dad, Alex Sr., and knows the kid very well.

    • T__Bone88

      I don’t recall Galchenyuk being among the 5 prospects that were listed by MacGregor as being considered by the Oilers at #1. My recollection was Yakupov, Murray, Grigorenko, Reinhart and Forsberg. Has that somehow changed?

  • T__Bone88

    I don’t like the how media speculates that if edm passes on Murray they won’t be a better team. The past three drafts the defensemen taken within the top 5 have not really made a difference for their teams. Looking at Erik Johnson goes to prove that the top defenseman taken is not always going to be a stud. Sure he is a first pairing but for Colorado, however on a contending team he would probably be on the 2nd pairing. It’s a funny thing in that what the media says is always what is best for the team.

    Looking at the Oilers roster it would be in their best interest to take Yakupov, it provides depth for the top 6. We don’t know if Hemsky will be always injured riddled, so if that happens we have Yakupov taking his place. If we didn’t have Yakupov we would have to rely on Jones to do that. Draft for future needs, trade & sign for immediate needs.

    • Woe is me. I wont get 2 players who likely dont have a shot at playing next year and maybe the year after. Instead I have to settle for the unanimous best 18 year old on the planet and this junkie 22 year old Centre playing on my 2nd line who can score 40+ points a year that a dozen other NHL teams want.

      Sad Omark Face

      • T__Bone88

        I’m not saying that I would not pick Yak in the Oilers situation, but I just really like Galchenyuk. As for the Gagner situation I completely agree with you, it would make no sense dealing him, unless we find a replacement, but just think about if we managed to snag Reinhart as well. We would have a formidable and massive blue line in the future.

  • Slapshot

    If Alex Galchenyuk is in the Oilers plans, why wasn’t he brought to Edmonton for an interview?

    With Mac T being the VP of hockey operations is he Tambellini’s Boss?

  • OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

    @ Destroyko

    Yikes… I didn’t even consider the Reinhart factor.

    He looks/sounds like the next Luke Schenn to me, decent player to have but would be ridiculous at #1.

  • Danny Donkey

    I hope Robin is correct that the Oilers won’t pass on Yakupov or Galchenyuk. The thought of drafting Murray really scares me because he is the oldest player in the draft and as Jason Gregor mentions, the first defenseman taken is rarely the best defensemen taken. We should trying to take the best player available. I would even rather the Oilers take Reinhart or even Dumba over Murray if were going to draft a dman, especially when those two are a lot younger.

  • Projection: “He’s probably a top-two or top-three guy.”

    The above means that Stu MacGregor will not tell Tambellini that Ryan Murray is going to be the best pro over the next 5-10 years. If Tambellini follows his previous statements about that being the criteria, then the Oilers will not draft Ryan Murray.

    This 90% pleases me and 10% terrifies me that they might take Reinhart #1.