RNH: DOUG WEIGHT 2.0?

The Edmonton Oilers haven’t had a player break the 80-point plateau since Doug Weight did it in 2000-01. The way I see it, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who was eight years old when Weight accomplished the feat, will be the next – likely this coming season, the CBA willing.

It’s been 11 seasons since Weight tallied 25-65-90 and the Oilers haven’t had a player bump past the 80-point mark since then, although Jordan Eberle took a good run at it with 76 points last season and Ales Hemsky, who has breached the 70-point mark three times, had 77 in 2005-06.

While Eberle and Taylor Hall (if he can cut down on the number of headers he takes into the boards) are obviously candidates to join the 80-point club, I see Nugent-Hopkins, who had 18-34-52 in 62 games as a rookie in 2011-12, as the likeliest to achieve it first.

Nugent-Hopkins, 19, reminds me more than a little bit of Weight in terms of substance and style – he’s smart, he’s quick and shifty on his skates without possessing blazing top-end speed, he has excellent vision and anticipation and has a knack of putting the puck where his wingers can do something with it. And there’s the number thing — 39 and 93. If Weight is a distant memory for you, here’s a video refresher

Those qualities aside, Nugent-Hopkins goes into 2012-13 with more firepower around him – Hall, Eberle, Hemsky and Nail Yakupov — on the power play and as potential linemates than Weight ever enjoyed during his distinguished tenure wearing the oil drop.

WHAT’S REASONABLE?

In pegging Nugent-Hopkins for 80 points, I’m not talking about "Reasonable Expectations," as defined in the series Lowetide provides ON readers. That’s a different measure – more of a bottom line. I’m talking about my expectations for the coming season – the top-end of what I believe Nugent-Hopkins is capable of as this point in his career.

I’m not using spreadsheets and a whole bunch (any) advanced statistical analysis here. The Bronte 5000, a Commodore 64 in the context of today’s technology, is simply not capable of processing it.

In simple terms, if you project the 18-34-52 numbers Nugent-Hopkins produced in 62 games as a rookie — .29 GPG, .55 APG and .84 PPG – straight across over 82 games, you get 24-45-69. Hey, Brownlee, that’s not 80 . . .

Of course, it’s not as simple as that and this is where my head begins to hurt – what about ice time, power play time, linemates, quality of competition, zone starts and all that other stuff (that goes into making an educated guess)? Insert sound of my brain flipping inside my skull here.

MY BOTTOM LINE

. . . While Nugent-Hopkins won’t get as many protected minutes as he did from Tom Renney last season, he will certainly play more than the 17:36 he averaged last season as the clear-cut No.1 center right out of the gate under Ralph Krueger.

. . . I don’t see anything unsustainable in the 13.4 shooting percentage had last season. It’s not so high (Eberle was at 18.9) a marked drop-off seems likely and not so low that I see huge room for improvement.

. . . I think the Oilers will score more goals than the 212 (including shootout wins) they had last season. How many more? If a much-improved power play can stay in the top-10, I don’t think 235-240 is unreasonable. RNH will be in on a greater share of those than he was last season.

Numbers aside, I like the way Nugent-Hopkins thinks the game and, like Eberle (and Weight), he has an understated competitive streak that drives him to prove doubters and critics wrong – the SIUTBOHC factor. Remember that fluke fall into the boards that cost him the Calder Trophy? Fuel.

On top of the ability to process the game and the I’ll-show-you streak, Nugent-Hopkins is smart. I’m not concerned he won’t be able to sneak up on anybody as a sophomore or that his name will be circled on white boards around the league. Yes, opponents have had a season to compile a book on Nugent-Hopkins. The flipside is he’s had a year to size them up, as well.

Move over, Douglas. RNH is on the way. I’d bet sooner than later.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

  • Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!

    In dog days of summer, where hockey news are far from plenty, such an article (and comments) is a welcome breath of “fresh” air.

    A somewhat sincere thank you to you, NewAge!

  • LUNATIC: [loo-nuh-tik]

    Part of Speech: adjective

    Definition: crazy, mad

    Synonyms: absurd, baked, balmy*, bananas, bonkers*, cracked, crazed, daft, demented, deranged, dippy, flaky*, flipped out, foolish, freaked out, fried, idiotic, insane, irrational, kooky, loco, maniac, maniacal, nonsensical, nutty, preposterous, psyched out, psychotic, schizoid, screwy, stupid, unsound, whacko, zany.

  • Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!

    I know what most of you are thinking: I have troubles reading accomplished authors; why the f*** would I devote 3 seconds of my “youth” to NewAge?

    But I challenge you to read paragraphs 2 and 3 of comment # 104 (pretty much the only thing I read), and dare to tell me this is NOT a stupefying, and yet a remarkable, spoof!

    Another bravo to you, NewAge!

  • MADMAN [mad-man)
    Definition: lunatic

    Synonyms: bedlamite, crazy person, crazyman, cuckoo, deranged person, insane man, looney, maniac, nut*, nutcase, oddball, psychiatric patient, psycho*, psychopath, psychotic*, raver, screwball

  • DEMENTED: [dih-men-tid]

    Part of Speech: adjective

    Definition: crazy, insane

    Synonyms:

    bananas, bemused, crackbrained, daft, delirious, deranged, distracted, distraught, flipped out, foolish, frenzied, fruity, hysterical, idiotic, in the ozone, lunatic, mad, maniac, maniacal, manic, non compos mentis, nutty as a fruitcake, out of one’s gourd, out of one’s tree, psycho, psychopathic, psychotic, schitzy, schizoid, unbalanced, unglued, unhinged, unsound, whacko

  • the big GRIGowski

    @NewAgeSys

    Three things:

    1. Are we being punked? Seriously. If so, utter brilliance my man. Freaking epic.

    2. We need evidence. Not, “I understand how you connect testing to validation,however as a visual thinker I have already watched it be superior thousands of times in full color video as i created it.”

    No wonder no one will answer your calls. How can anyone take you seriously if you can’t provide a shred of evidence of your system actually working, or it being superior to those of thousands of coaches over the span of decades?

    3. Send your data to Mr. Willis or Lowetide (the two major stat geeks on the site). Let them validate it.

    I can guarantee that if either of them sees the value and brilliance in it, they will pass it on to exactly the type of people you are trying to impress or, at the very least, blog about your mastery of hockey strategy. They will give you credit for your work. Heck, you might even end up as a regular on NationRadio. Is there a bigger honor than talking with LoweTide every week? I think not.**

    And once they’ve blogged it, you’ll have your choice of teams to work for.

    Your manifesto could spread so much quicker if the Nation ever updates their site with sharing options. Is this 1998? Is this site hosted by Geocities? Let me check my Netscape bookmarks.

    Oh…..c…r……ap…..my…..28….8…..m…o….de…m…

    ***Maybe Wanye but he’s too busy fantasizing about Ebs and Zuch to be bothered.

    • the big GRIGowski

      Thank you for the direction,as a matter of fact that is the type of spot I was hopeing to find.

      I understand the absurdity of this dynamic,but then again have you ever seen video of Spud Web dunking a basketball?

      I watch Americas Got Talent sometimes and am blow away,almost every show there is someone who is better at their trade than most professionals out there,real gems,that produce superior results with very little support system.

      I never even played organised ice-hockey,in my life.

      I couldnt coach my way out of a wet paper bag,not on my own,I dont have the knowledge base,or personal experience,thats not what I can do,all I need is an existing communication network and acess to the coaches,then I can show a team how to dominate useing the NHS,the system requires all the ingredients I cannot provide,and once its taught its taught,but I need ALL the people in their regulars spots working full out of their own accord as usual.

      I have said in the past I could use the Farm team playing the NHS to defeat the Oilers regular NHL lineup in a 7 gm series,in 4 gms,but I always say WITH their coaches and communication system in place as it is.I am an adjuster–I do not have the qualifications to deal in anything more technical than dynamics,this is admitted fact–but none of these shortcomeings I apparently carry seem to have an impact on the system I created or the results it can put a team in a position to achieve.

      And no I am not Punking you,ha ha ha.Epic mad brilliance??No way,just the way I see things,
      put it this way,I think soccer games should always be 8-5,every game,its IMHO impossible to not score this much with so many transitions and possesion changes,and space,it just seems unnatural to see low scoreing games in that environment.A system is based on philosophys that cumulatively work together to to catalyse specific sets of micro-dynamics in specific sequences consistantly,this is known as the winning formula.And the plays will always be like lego pieces going wherever the system needs them,but by design—we will ALWAYS recognise these plays,we need to see the order and timeing of the presentation clearly to identify system core values.

      Just saying something like”those are just hockey plays from 20 yrs ago” or “can you give us proof that it works” these statements are vague and non-specific,of course my NHS contains all hockey plays in context all systems must–you need to identify weaknesses in how I utilise those 20 yr old plays before you can fairly question their execution and timeing in the NHS.The proof it works is evidenced when a team strays from its normal system and adopts specific and ordered NHS core values,then actions those adjustments and recieves consistant positive results,then maintains these NHS adjustments.I already mentioned the Oilers,Kings,and the LA playoff opponents who implemented the NHS on the fly last year.I even targeted the timeline when my data hit mainstream,with about 25 gms to go lst year,and was being implemented,I even listed games between LA and the Oilers where BOTH teams were learning to implement the NHS into their hybrid systems at the same time,both adjusting and executeing very very well.

      Hopefully I can see this data validated here and just answer questions.

  • I invented a Banana peeler once. Turns out people wouldnt buy it because “their own freakin hands” seemed to be working just fine for them.

    They had no respect for my New Peel System. It revolutionizes the peeling of Bananas by unlocking the untapped potential of the colour spectrum and its positive energy fliud like movements THAT WE ALL USE INTUITIVELY.

    I am no ordinary inventor, I dont ask, “What do we need?” or “How can I change lives?” Instead, I ask “How can I peel this G#d-D@mned Banana without getting my fingers ooky from the under side of the peel?” Well the New Peel System will do just that. It requires only the NPS tool…and a Banana. I’ve shown this tool to monkeys at the zoo and within minutes they Peeled more bananas than previous, just CHECK THE DATA. The zookeepers couldnt explain it but put any one of those smoking monkeys on a POLYGRAPH and they will spill the beans faster than you can Peel a Banana, WHICH WILL BE LIGHTNING FAST with the New Peel System.

  • the big GRIGowski

    @NewAgeSys

    “There also happens to be a mathematical connection that the NHS teaches players to utilise that is related to useing micro-dynamics to manipulate their opponents body posture and positioning.”

    Sorry NewAgeSys but I’m clearly not intelligent enough to know what this means. Can you please be more specific and dumb it down a little for me? How do NHS players manipulate their opponents body posture and positioning using micro-dynamics?

    • Good question and I have a great example from last years playoffs that LA took straight from the NHS book,It was provided for the Oilers but the Kings also used it.

      When LA was entering the o-zone and then shooting the puck after a tiny delay from the top of the faceoff circel cross ice forceing the goaltender to make a toe save,do you know why they were doing it that way?

      Forget about the obvious dynamics of the play and put yourself in the goalies shoes,now listen to me whisper in your ear that I am about to make you do something you dont want to do,because you see when that cross ice shot comes from that spot a tiny delay included,the tender has been given time to set his feet for the primary threat and he squares to the puck–angle his feet,then when the shot is delivered low post on the tenders right side –he is FORCED to turn his feet and he essentially freezes himself,and has very little reboud directional control because of the movement of his feet and the resulting body posture and mechanics.Now an up-speed winger comes flying in and recieves the rebound as if it is a perfect pass and burys it in the net.

      This play was used over and over by LA because it was one of my first major NHS system tactics I released online.It may be just a hockey play,but its also a tactical decision within the NHS for many intangible reasons.

      This elimination of the goaltender through the manipulation of his body positioning and posture through the creation of a series of micro-dynamics all culminateing in the goal off the perfect toe pass,is the example Ithink you are looking for.

      Now go back and read the Canucks site posts and see how I gave them NHS data to counter this tactic,same with the Wings.

      On this particular play the up-speed man comeing into the zone late also needs to focus on manageing a series of micro-dynamics as he approaches and enters the o-zone.He needs to angle out the d-man who will be in the middle with a feint or a fake to slide him over to the middle more or stutterstep him to keep that rebound off the tenders toe available and accessable.

      The math part is simple that there are only so many directions and angles your body position will allow you to utilise at any given time–there arent that many and when players learn the total number they are not intimidated they have a more complete picture,then they learn to micro-manage their opponents body positions as a system reqirement to support offensive dynamics we want to develop turning a d-mans feet or head or body at the right time to syncronise a developing play this is the management of these micro-dynamics I talk about—we create them.

  • to top it off in my second chess game ever I two moved an experienced player mostly because I understood the concepts of time and space as applied to a chess board and the capabilitys of the pieces

    Unfortunately I missed most of this thread, but I wanted to note that the comment above is far and away my favorite from this thread and has been underrated by all of you so far. Please give this comment its due or I too will invent a “special” hockey system.

    • Ha ha ha,i never really liked chess,my friend had to show me what every piece could do before our first game ,I learned what the pieces did in 20mins,lost a game to him,then two moved him,I realised I was lucky and refused the rubber match and never played another game in my life,but if you google chess two move win kasparov–you will see it was his favorite move.

      I am serious about the applications of time and space concepts on that board,I just had to know what the pieces could all do to know their limitations then find the shortest route out of the game.End the game in as fast a time as I could and cover as little space with the men as possible to do this.

      I wasnt really playing my friend I was playing the board and the dynamics of the game itself,my friend wasnt a focused concern the rest of the board we werent useing was.I wanted out of the game as fast as I could get there,so it was just a maze,like a puzzle as long as you see the parameters of the playing field and know the capabilitys of the pieces in all aspects,then its just a matter identifying the shortest route.This is what the NHS teaches players to do,to play the game from a new perspective.

      • I can’t believe I’m engaging ….but that’s not how chess works. Unfortunately you have to play an opponent.

        Winning in two moves is everyone’s favorite thing to do in chess, but it doesn’t mean you get to do it against anyone without a debilitating brain injury…even if your name is Kasparov.

        This whole discussion has passed so far beyond stupid that it’s circling back around to awesome.

  • the big GRIGowski

    @newagesys

    You want your data validated. What data are you referring to? I haven’t seen any.

    “I already mentioned the Oilers,Kings,and the LA playoff opponents who implemented the NHS on the fly last year.I even targeted the timeline when my data hit mainstream,with about 25 gms to go lst year,and was being implemented,I even listed games between LA and the Oilers where BOTH teams were learning to implement the NHS into their hybrid systems at the same time,both adjusting and executeing very very well.”

    Prove to me that they adopted the NHS and didn’t just make adjustments (that are well-established and not revolutionary). This isn’t a difficult task.

    Prove those teams adopted your system. How did they get the info/data?

    Prove those teams adopted your system. When did they stop telling their players to create time and space? How did they know to change their jargon to properly execute the NHS.

    I’m getting a little disappointed that you’ve made not a single effort to prove any of your claims. It’s no different than me claiming I’ve slept with every woman that Lowetide has ever included in his posts. If you’re wondering how I slept with all of those celebs I can prove it. “Technically it is called 3 dimensional visualisation and anyone can do it with practice,but some of us are born professionals.” And by the way, it’s true. Prove me wrong. Oh wait, for you to actually believe that statement, I guess it’s up to me to prove it right. Right?

    @tigerunderglass

    “I have said in the past I could use the Farm team playing the NHS to defeat the Oilers regular NHL lineup in a 7 gm series,in 4 gms,but I always say WITH their coaches and communication system in place as it is”

    The above now takes the cake.