Phil Cornet’s shooting percentage refuses to cooperate. He keeps scoring goals at an exceptional rate in the AHL. At what point do we take this from "unsustainable" and "luck" to something resembling "skill"?

I don’t want to get into a Jordan Eberle level discussion about Cornet’s scoring percentages, but he’s back for a second year in a row to amaze us and I’m beginning to wonder when we start thinking about this being an actual ability, like juggling, yodeling or lifting heavy things.


  • age 20: 7 goals on 86 shots (8.13%)
  • age 21: 24 goals on 135 shots (17.78%)
  • age 22: 6 goals on 24 shots (25%)

Cornet’s ECHL numbers (9 goals on 53 shots, 16.98%) also give the impression that this fellow can score goals at an impressive clip. All told, his AHL shooting percentage is an outstanding 15.1% over most of three seasons now.


  • age 16: 7 goals on 82 shots (8.5%)
  • age 17: 23 goals on 156 shots (14.7%)
  • age 18: 29 goals on 242 shots (12%)
  • age 19: 28 goals on 237 shots (11.8%)

For his junior career–and a hat tip to the QMJHL for keeping track of shots–Cornet’s shooting percentage was 12.1%. That’s an interesting total, but not earth shattering and doesn’t suggest we’re looking at some kind of magician in the scoring zones.


Well, random luck is still the likely answer, but we’re (early) in year two of this little curio and I’m beginning to wonder if Cornet might have found a way to cheat the house.


Hell if I know. I’m asking you. I’d like to know the answer to this question, and it could apply to Eberle although it appears he’s seeing a market correction as we speak:

At what point does a lucky streak begin to look like a skill? Is a player with Cornet’s junior resume always doomed to be what we thought he was? How many times a decade does a sniper emerge from the land of normal?


  • Yeaaaa! Another db taking the up the cause of writing fist. Slow clap.

    On another note, the lady in 5th picture is trying her hardest to make mom jeans look hot. Not sure if it is working.

    Cornet is behind a lot players, I hope this goal scoring translates into something. With the number of injuries the oilers have each year, they will need all the depth they can get.

    • Quicksilver ballet

      Those jeans are acceptable. I can see she has 45 cents in her left pocket. The quarter is from 1978. What’s that 78 quarter worth today i wonder, being antique and all….

  • Well all i am going to say is that i saw him once in a oilers pre season game and i thought he stood out from the rest of the guys. I have been watching to see what he does ever since, and have seen some ups and downs. Lets hope he beats the odds. You can never have to many good players.

  • SiD

    Looking at the string of bad luck Jordan Eberle has been having getting robbed on wide open nets or just missing, it seems like a mix of both skill and luck. Cornet could be in the right place at the right time like Eberle usually is but he’s getting the bounces.

    Lowetide are you going to be doing any articles on Mitch Moroz, Daniil Zharkov, and Jujhar Khaira? Just wondering how they are tracking from what I’ve seen so far I like Moroz just personally high on what he brings to the game, I haven’t heard to much of the other two though.

  • Boourns99

    Do we know how he does on the d-side of the game? There’s no way he supplants any of the top six right now so if he’s to make it I’d wager he’d end up as 3rd or 4th line support.

  • Boourns99

    It’s easy to forget he’s only 23 and that he’s young enough such that an NHL player may be lurking inside. The recent string of #1s up front have perhaps clouded expectations on when we think players should be ready for the show. There is never ending talk about following the Detroit model, and we all know how long it takes to graduate out of their system. Ideally the Oilers will achieve org. depth to the point where a player has to force his way onto the roster to make the squad vs. simply filling a need.

    We can hope

  • SiD

    So, shots on goal. It’s only credited if the goalie makes the save or if the puck goes into the net. Posts and shots that go wide are not officially shots, but staticians for broadcasts will record those numbers – blocked shots, number of posts, etc. But when it comes to a players’ shooting percentage as we see listed in the stats, is it goals divided by “official” shots on net? It would be good to know who’s good at not having their shots blocked and who can bury the biscuit per shot attempt.

  • Not an outstanding junior shooter.

    Not an outstanding ECHL shooter.

    Not an outstanding shooter as an AHL rookie.

    159 shots over two seasons with a strong percentage in the AHL.

    I’d feel pretty good betting against Cornet being able to do this over the long haul.

    • Bonvie

      It’s evidence of a guy who made an assertive effort in changing his game with better results. The high percentage shooting area is in front of the net(see Craig Simpson). I remember seeing an interview probably on this site about crediting the coaching staff in telling him to get stronger and to go to the font of the net, identifying that is the reason for his goal scoring success early on last season.

  • Boourns99

    I think Jonathan Willis’ logic above is pretty solid. You’d think he would have higher shooting percentages at lower levels if this was some sort of ability as opposed to luck.

    Take a look at Ryan Jones; another guy who has a higher shooting percentage than you might imagine. He shot a range of 16.5-19.6% in his last 3 years of college. Is his NHL career, he’s shot 11.1-14.3% over 3 seasons. That’s sort of logical, had a high shooting percentage every year in college, and had a bit of a drop when it comes to the NHL. That’s a guy that I’d point to repeat his numbers, not a guy like Cornet whose numbers just suddenly spiked.