The Betting Line

Yesterday, gambling website Bovada set their over/under numbers for five of the Oilers’ best forwards. Where do they see those players landing?

The List

  • Taylor Hall: 74-1/2 points
  • Taylor Hall: 30-1/2 goals
  • Jordan Eberle: 67-1/2 points
  • Nail Yakupov: 58-1/2 points
  • Sam Gagner: 54-1/2 points
  • David Perron: 48-1/2 points

Additionally, Hall was placed at 30-1 to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP and the ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy as the best goal-scorer. Hall (40-1) and Eberle (85-1) were both given odds on the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading point-scorer, while Justin Schultz is considered a 30-1 shot for the Norris Trophy.

Surprises?

The list above is extremely unsurprising. The Gagner and Perron and Eberle are expected to produce at roughly their career rate. Yakupov is given a modest bump here from last season; likely his play improves but I doubt he’s a career 21.0% shooter and it seems the fellows setting the odds agree with that.

If there is a surprise, it’s Hall. On his career, he has scored at a 70 points/82 games pace, but last season he scored at a full-season pace of 91 points. Bovada’s forecasting a fall; why might they do that?

Health is a possibility. Hall missed significant time to injury in his first two seasons, and though he looked good coming off shoulder surgery last year it’s fair to wonder whether his penchant for risking his body to advance the play might not result in more time missed.

There’s also a statistical red flag – IPP, or individual points percentage. Basically, that statistic refers to the number of even-strength points divided by even-strength goals for on. At its best, it shows us which players are really driving the play, but it’s also highly variable – when I looked for repeatability it fluctuated almost as much as shooting percentage. Last year, Hall had a huge season, picking up points on 94 percent of the goals scored when he was on the ice; in the two years prior he was hovering around 70 percent. If we assume it was a one-off, and that he’s closer to his career IPP rate, he drops from a 91 points/82 games pace down to 80 points per 82 games.

Combine that points fall with a bit of ill-health and suddenly 75 points looks like a pretty reasonable line in the sand, assuming that Hall doesn’t take yet another step forward. I’m personally inclined to be a little more bullish on Hall, but than I’m not putting my money on the line. The guys who do have set 75 points as their reasonable expectation for Hall; it’s going to be interesting to see how close they come.

Recently around the Nation Network

First, a quick reminder: StreakCred is free for the pre-season – sign up to win not only real money but also something far more valuable: NationGear. 

According to Darren Dreger, the Toronto Maple Leafs may be interested in moving Joe Colborne. Cam Charron talks about what it all means and what Colborne has to offer at Leafs Nation:

Joe Colborne is 23 and has just 16 NHL games to his credit. He’s taken just 12 shots and has a single goal. While it was his excellence at the AHL-level and likelihood to make the NHL roster this season that had us rank Colborne almost universally at No. 2 in our prospect rankings, he doesn’t have the track record in his previous call-ups as, say, Nazem Kadri did, to guarantee at full-time job.

Click the link above to read more, or feel free to check out some of my recent stuff below:

  • John Chambers

    Over on Hall’s goals.

    Under on Yakupov’s points. Under on Gagner’s points.

    Too bad no RNH prediction due to injury. I’m bullish on him and guess he would pass 70 / 82 games.

  • Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things

    Fall on Hall… maybe the boys in Vegas don’t like him playing the center position, or possibly the idea of Hemsky being on his wing, might have a factor.

  • DSF

    Bovada seems to be basing the projection for Perron based on his performance in STL.

    I would think now that he’s not playing Hitchcock’s system, he has a good chance to hit 60 points.

  • John Chambers

    Taylor Hall’s a top ten to fifteen NHL player now. I’m fine with pundits in TO not noticing. When I see fantasy lists where he is not in the top 20, I just laugh. He was generally healthy last year. Lost 2 games to killing Cal Buttercup, but other then that I expect 70-75 games outta him and a suspension or two.

    • oilerjed

      Or center will be something that he excels at. There is no way that I can imagine Hall centering that line, why put an anchor on your speed boat?
      As for the over under
      Hall-over(90)
      Ebs -over(75)
      Perron-over
      Yak-under (25-30g 20A)
      Gags-under (20g-30A)

      But IF they stay healthy they could all very easily be over.

  • Ducey

    Colborne might be a nice fit for the Oilers.

    6’5″, 213 lbs, decent point totals in the AHL (42 pts in 65 games), has played under Eakins, and is a center.

    If he can win a faceoff and play in his own end he likely would be an upgrade on Lander or Acton.

    Given he has to clear waivers, he shouldn’t cost much.

    • The Oilers Shot Clock

      I dunno, he’s treading in that grey area between prospect and reclamation project. Depends what it cost I suppose. It’s not like we are deep there in OKC too I guess.

  • Kodiak

    I agree with previous posters that if Hall plays center for the first month, he will be concentrating on D more and won’t be racking up the points.

    Eberle is looking really good already. I’d pick the over on him and Perron and under on everything else.

  • DSF

    Bovada also has updated odds on team point totals:

    Pacific:

    LAK – 98.5

    VCR – 95.5

    SJS – 94.5

    ANA – 90.5

    EDM – 89.5

    PHX – 85.5

    CAL – 74.5

    Central:

    CHI – 105.5

    STL – 99.5

    MIN – 94.5

    DAL – 86.5

    COL – 86.5

    NSH – 84.5

    WPG – 82.5

    So, if the division winners perform as expected the wildcard race looks like this:

    ANA – 90.5

    EDM – 89.5

    ————————

    DAL – 86.5

    COL – 86.5

    PHX – 85.5

    NSH – 84.5

    WPG – 82.5

    CAL – 74.5

    • John Chambers

      And the under on Colorado. That defense is putrid.

      The two seasons where the Oilers bottomed out they had a measley 62 points. My guess is that Calgary gets closer to that mark than the 74.5 Bovada suggests.

  • The Last Big Bear

    Now that all the Oilers are healthy, with some of the new additions, and a new coach and his systems……..the young guns will produce like never before.

    Last year was a mess on so many levels…….this years team has depth and that fact alone shoud see sustained momentum not change much with regular season injuries. The call-up will offer so much more to offer…….very exciting.

  • The Last Big Bear

    I wouldn’t bet in either direction for any of these, which means I pretty much agree completely with their projections.

    (edit: the player point projections, I mean)

  • 106 and 106

    The last $6 MM Centre we employed was Horcoff, for craps sake. Not sure why TSN’s comment crowd are all negative nelly’s on the signing.

    Haters gonna hate.

  • 106 and 106

    I would take the over on Hall regardless of if he is playing in the middle or on the wing. He will make whoever he plays with better and will get plenty of points on the PP. The only issue is injury of course but he was mostly healthy last season and anybody is capable of getting injured.

  • Zipdot

    What kind of people bet on how many points a player will make? That actually sounds like a fun bet. But like, are there like professional bettors who place bets like that?

    • John Chambers

      You can actually bet on the likelihood of world leaders getting assassinated, election results, economies collapsing, natural disasters, and the results of High School basketball games in Kentucky.

      If you know how to push the odds in your favour, you can become a very wealthy individual.

  • Oilers4ever

    If Hallsy stays healthy all year I think he can push 100 points. He’s that good. I also think Yak has a chance at 40 goals provided he’s not playing 3rd line minutes. And Ebs will push 80 points this year. When’s the last time the Oilers had 3 players pushing 80 points plus. I can’t remember that.