STAND BACK!

 

The Oilers grabbed a road win in Sunrise on Tuesday, and there are signs things may get better. Taylor Hall is close to returning, the defensive depth (Larsen, Fedun) has been as advertised and the Nuge is beginnng to push the river again. One key item that remains unsolved: the goaltending. This has been Devan Dubnyk’s job all along, now it’s time for him to deliver. 

We’ve talked about stats and established Dubnyk was an average to slightly above average G entering this season. We’ve talked about smaller goalie pads impacting him, shorter sticks impacting his balance and his ‘relaxed’ attitude when things were not quite right in pre-season. 

That’s all history. What’s real is the here and now, and for  Dubnyk (coming off a short term injury) this is the time. The Oilers need him, need to believe in him, need him to not only make the stops he should but to rob another team of a victory on the road.

EVEN STRENGTH SAVE PERCENTAGE, LAST THREE YEARS

  • 2010-11: .921
  • 2011-12: .927
  • 2012-13: .922
  • 2013-14: .876

These numbers reflect a few things: bad start, small sample size, et cetera. When a goalie has a dip like that, we can look for the usual reasons (age, injury) and those do not apply to Dubnyk. The equipment change could be a factor, but all goalies have had to adjust and this season the Save Percentages have improved across the league. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Based on what we read, Devan Dubnyk is a popular guy in the dressing room and players (previous to this season) believed in him. We don’t know how long the team will stay with him if these performances continue,but we do know who can impact the decision. 

Devan Dubnyk. Starting tonight. 

  • Spoils

    It was just a heartbeat ago when we won the JSchultz lottery.

    Now people are saying Dillon won’t sign, Duchenne is in the patrick Kane – Crosby conversation, and Taylor Hall isn’t gonna make the Olympic team.

    I think these things are transformatively bad.

    It shows me how important it is we start winning games now or try to regain the excitement about our rebuild.

  • Lowetide

    Do any of you stat whizzes out there know if anyone’s ever looked at Dubnyk’s SV% when the game is close?

    Extraskater.com has the function to look at that but they only have stats for last year. Of note, his ES SV% was .923 last year. But his ES SV% when the game is close, drops to .912.

    Now that’s one year so I don’t know if that means anything, that’s why I’m wondering if anyone has seen those stats for other years?

    • pkam

      Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

      Wouldn’t you think in most circumstances, ‘The game is not close’ is likely the result of a high SV%? So isn’t it logical that the SV% will be higher when the game is not close?

      Does it happen to other goalies as well, whether they are elite goalie or not?

      So what does the stats of the previous years going to prove?

      • EasyOil

        Well, people often say that Dubnyk’s main flaw is letting in an untimely goal. They’d probably point to last night’s last minute goal as an example, they’re up by a goal (the game is close) and he lets one in.

        So if this is an actual trend, I was thinking when you look at SV% when it’s a 1 goal game or the game is tied, then his stats should be lower in this situation. I was just bored and looking at that site and saw that it was true for last year, so just wondering out loud if it was the same for previous years as well.

        Maybe my thinking is flawed, I’ll admit I’m not always the brightest dude, but I’m just wondering here. Although, I’m not really getting your logic…the game not close could be because he let in 85 goals just as much as it could be spectacular goaltending, so no it doesn’t seem logical that it would be higher when the games not close. But ya, you would have to look at other goaltenders too, not just him, to have some context.

  • Romulus' Apotheosis

    Dubynk is not the answer. Plain and simple. When MacT went hard after Schneider, Dubs lost his mojo and lets face it, he did not have a whole lot to begin with.

  • Jordan McNugent-Hallkins

    I still say we need to see a Hall – Nuge – Yak line when Hall’s back. It seems like it would have a good mix of talent. Hall as the power guy, Nuge as the playmaker, Nail as the shooter. Plus with Hall and Yak’s speed, they could wreak some havoc on defenders.

    • pkam

      Actually Hall and Yak had some nice chemistry last season with Gag’s in the middle. With Gag’s struggling at this point I think they should let him slot in the third line RW spot alongside Gordon to get himself straightened out. Let Arco take those minutes for now with Hall and Yak. Would not be surprised to see them do well, besides Arco is better defensively and can actually win a draw.
      With the chemistry between Eb’s and Nuge and also between Eb’s and Perron, I like to looks of those three running together.

  • I’m not convinced anything on the Oilers will change once they get everyone back, they were awful before these players went down, I’m not expecting that to change.

    As far as Dubnyk goes, he’s absolutely brutal.

  • Word to the Bird

    I’m hoping Dubnyk finds his game because the Oilers can never win on a consistent basis without solid goaltending throughout the season. I thought his detractors were a little unfair coming into this season, but he has deserved all the criticism he has received so far.

    The only way this team turns this season around is much better goaltending and being significantly more healthy…especially the return of Hall and Perron. This team will have difficulty winning unless RNH, Hall, Perron, and Eberle are in the lineup nearly every night.

  • Word to the Bird

    At least Simpson has history with EDM, so that helps. That being said, without sounding like Tambellini, our defense is looking very good in terms of what’s coming. Nurse, Klef, and Schultz will be great defensemen for the years to come and Marincin is not far behind either.

  • Sean17

    It means that the Oilers will never make the playoffs or go very far in the playoffs with just average goaltending.

    I am not a Gagner fan nor a Dubnyk fan . I hope they both prove me wrong.

  • Sean17

    LT, Craig Simpson was on the radio yesterday saying how son Dillon would have his degree by December and would consider ALL of his options then. This makes me think the Oilers may be in tough signing him. Thoughts?