The Face of the Franchise?

This summer, the clear consensus in Edmonton seemed to be that Taylor Hall was the most important part of the team’s long-term core. The year before, Jordan Eberle’s 34-goal, 76-point season likely would have won him that honour.

But if we held a poll today I’m guessing that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would be the name on the lips of most.

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My View

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I wasn’t a fan of drafting Nugent-Hopkins first overall. In a year where the top-four seemed closely bunched, Nugent-Hopkins offence seemed too dependent on the power play. It wasn’t that I didn’t like the player, but defenceman Adam Larsson – projected as a two-way workhorse and a guy I’d seen play very well at the World Juniors – felt like a safer choice and a better fit for team need.

But while the Oilers certainly wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a defenceman like Larsson, and while blueliners tend to take longer to round into form than forwards, the results so far are one-sided and not in my favour.

Nugent-Hopkins has certainly been the power play witch his junior numbers suggested he was, but he’s been far more than that. He plays an intelligent two-way game at the age of 20, and suddenly all those junior comparisons to Pavel Datsyuk don’t seem so off, because if Nugent-Hopkins can handle all of this at the age of 20 than what will he be able to do at 25?

Nugent-Hopkins plays a defensive game that far exceeds that of men much his senior. Less than 150 games into his professional career, he’s got things figured out that Sam Gagner still struggles with 300 games later. Maybe that isn’t a fair comparison to Gagner, but where would the Oilers be if they had two centres that played defence that way? Well we’re at it, where would the team be if Eberle and Hall had the same commitment to a 200-foot game that Nugent-Hopkins does?

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(And, for the comments section: don’t come back at me with “minus-nine.” There’s a sweet spot of ignorance between really watching the games and really understanding the numbers, and “minus-nine” is right in the middle of it. By eye, there’s no question as to Nugent-Hopkins’ defensive commitment, and by number that goal differential is easily traceable back to Nugent-Hopkins 0.881 on-ice save percentage – and before you ask, no that’s not his fault.)

I’ve been tracking scoring chances all year and have 34 of the 35 games marked. With Nugent-Hopkins on the ice at even-strength the Oilers out-chance the opposition 164-145 (53.1% of all chances are Oilers chances). With Nugent-Hopkins off the ice, the Oilers are out-chanced 257-308 (45.5% of all chances are Oilers chances). That isn’t all him, naturally; Nugent-Hopkins has played with good players all season. On the other hand, so has Sam Gagner and in easier circumstances and he’s lagging back at just under 50 percent. (Note: I’ve corrected the scoring chance numbers above after making a simple subtraction error in the initial post.)

In other words, my view has come a long way from the summer of 2011. I don’t think there’s a player more vital to the Oilers than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

A Side Point

The progression in the first paragraph – from Eberle to Hall to Nugent-Hopkins – isn’t exactly random, is it? Eberle, drafted in 2008, had his breakthrough campaign at the age of 21. Hall, drafted in 2010, did the same. Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t turn 21 until April, while Nail Yakupov doesn’t hit that threshold until next October.

It takes a while for even the best junior-age players to find their stride in the NHL. And it’s a nice reminder for a guy like Yakupov, who is having a miserable year (though his five-on-five on-ice percentages – 6.49 shooting, 0.869 save – aren’t helping), that it can pay to be patient.

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Recently by Jonathan Willis

  • Zarny

    I’ve never understood why Oiler fans fall in love with the wrong players – Hemsky, Gagner and now RNH.

    RNH is not someone you can build a team around but is a solid complementary player. Of the 3 number 1 overall picks you have, I’d trade him before the other 2.

    • Zarny

      Not likely.

      Because he’ll have the same holes in his defensive game and RNH will likely get close to 80 pts.

      So what does Gagner bring that RNH doesn’t?

      The answer is nothing. Gagner is the exact same type of player as RNH except he’s not as good offensively and has more defensive liabilities. Both are garbage at FO.

      One of the most successful lines in Oiler history is Smyth-Weight-Guerin. That line is better than 3 Smyths, 3 Weights or 3 Guerin’s because they complimented each other. None of the top 6 F compliment each other.

      You also leave out the fact that if Gagner ended up in Mtl next year another player comes back to Edm in return and in all likelyhood that player would fill a role Gagner could never hope to fill.

        • Zarny

          LMAO…even the sun shines on a dogs a** some days.

          Gagner’s FO% has never been over 50% over the course of any season. His career average is 44.7%.

          Sorry, but that is garbage.

      • Actually, that link above shows that players have very minimal ability to control their on-ice save percentage over the long term, at least at the NHL level.

        I think there’s actually a little more ability than we see in the study done there, but it’s lost in a bunch of other factors – such as quality of competition.

        • **

          A big problem with the on ice sv% is that there isn’t continuity on net to correctly make predictions. A player will not have the same goalie on net across his career, let alone in one season. The Oilers alone have had 4 goalies on net in just 35 games. It is impossible to use the sv% as an accurate predictor of defensive ability because the conditions change every time the goalie changes. To me it is just as flawed as the plus minus.

  • Zamboni Driver

    Stats-nerd argument goes like this:

    a) Plus minus is meaningless because it’s not always the player’s fault.

    b) Save percentage (!!!!!!??????) while the player is on the ice. Now that is a meaningful stat.

    Save percentage.

    By the goalie.

    Good one.

    • Dan the Man

      If the save percentage is lower or higher than normal while a player is on the ice then chances are it will at some point revert back to normal values over an extended period of time.

          • Zamboni Driver

            And the player’s “Save percentage” (because that’s a thing, apparently) is also affected.

            My point is if you say one is meaningless, you gotta say both are. “Advanced Stats” people don’t.

          • Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things

            Stats guys say that every stat is meaningful. The only argument is over what the meaning is, and that’s the source of so much conflict on this website and others.

            +/- is meaningful, but not if you’re trying to explain a player’s performance independent of their teammates.

            Stats guys use on-ice save percentage as a way to isolate a player’s performance from his teammates’.

          • Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things

            The closest analogy I can draw is getting your water bill in the mail. The bill tells you whether your consumption as a household went up or down in a given month. You can’t tell solely from your water bill how efficient your showerhead is, but if you know a little about your toilet, your washer, and your dishwasher you can get a little closer to isolating that data.

          • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

            I’m confused……is Taylor Hall the dishwasher or the shower head…..assuming of course that Sam Gagner is the toilet.

            This just in ……the data has been analyzed ….. The numbers have been crunched….The results establish…the Oilers are the poop…..and they are spinning clockwise…..somebody call the plumber!

          • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

            Seriously though……it’s not a bad analogy…….what the stats guys need to do is either better explain the limitations of the individual stat…or at least reference the correlation of things like….who designed the plumbing layout….and was it properly designed….are we using the right hardware for the particular application…..what about the quality of the sealants and glue….is the pressure system the right size….if one or more of the faucets is damaged what affect does that have on the other fixtures or the system as a whole….if there’s a guy hammering away at one of the faucets is there anybody around to step in and stop him…..why is it that occasionally I get hot water and sometimes just cold water…..but most of the time it’s just stinky luke warm water…..if my plumbing isn’t working after 8 years of messing around….should I just keep swapping out the hardware…or should I look at the design and maybe rip the whole thing out and start from scratch.

            Edit: Damn….I should have bought a Weber….uh…I mean Kohler…..hmmmm I wonder if anyone would trade me a Kohler faucet for three Delta faucets.

          • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

            Plumbing fixtures, furniture, and stereo speakers are like hockey players in one way…..the heavier they are the better the quality…..big and skilled beats small and skilled.

      • Zarny

        Not really.

        Your assumption is that the G is seeing the same type of shots regardless of who is on the ice.

        Completely false.

        When defensively responsible players are on the ice the G sees easier shots to save.

        That’s why G have higher SV% when guys like Datsyuk, Toews, Richards, Staal, Kesler etc are on the ice.

        And that’s why it’s a relevant stat.

        • Dan the Man

          Toews on ice save percentage is .893 and Andrew Shaw’s is .935. I guess that means that Toews is worse defensively than Shaw.

          Datsyuk’s on ice save percentage is .909 and Justin Abdelkader’s is .933. I guess that means that Datsyuk is worse defensively than Abdelkader.

        • Dan the Man

          I agree it is a relevant stat, that is my point. The assumption is that Yakupov’s on ice save percentage of .869 will improve regardless of his individual play because .869 is a historically low number.
          My assumption has nothing to do with shot quality it has to do with statistically poor goaltending that is not likely to stay that poor.

    • watkinator

      That’s the point of talking about sv% when a player is on the ice: they mostly aren’t in control over it. It’s a partial explanation as to why RNH has a poor +/-, hence it’s a more meaningful stat.

  • Zamboni Driver

    Sad that Hopkins is the face of the franchise. He is a good player not an elite talent, honestly are we all watching the player. I realize he is young but believe he will be lucky to score 20 goals in any given year(unless he plays for Pitt). And if we ever make it to the playoffs I am not confident that he could compete with from a physical perspective. Hall is frustrating he could be a 50 goal man but he is all over the place too many turnovers blatant defensive lapses.

  • bwar

    So basically we have two forward piece already in place for our next rebuild: Perron and RNH.

    I’m a big fan of the Nuge and moving forward I would like to see MacT build around RNH, even if that means trading away Hall, Eberle and Yakupov.

  • 24% body fat

    Everyone is yapping … trade this guy, trade that guy etc… and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren’t 200 ft. players but they have the other side… Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

    What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

    • Puck JammeR!

      So what’s the alternative? Bashing your head against the wall over and over again with the same group of players? Or are you one of those “Petry, Omark & Marincin for elite NHL talent” guys?

      • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

        These guys are very young, and need good coaching to make them complete players.Its not impossible. [recall when Wings had Federof switched to play defense so he would up his defensive game].

        Guys like Petry, Omark and Marincin, will bring you even less than the Fab five, I think you and I both know this.

        My point is player development.Its not like you are taking some 4 th liner and tyring to make him an elite line one player.

    • Chainsawz

      If the players aren’t working here, then who cares if they work somewhere else.

      What if they never get coached into 200 ft players and the return that was turned down would have been elements of a championship team??? A guy can play what if all day long, doesn’t make a point.

    • Zarny

      You miss the point.

      The Oilers don’t need better than Hall or Eberle or Nuge or Yakupov.

      They need different and no matter who they trade they still have 3 others with basically the exact same skill set.

      Who cares what Eberle or Yakupov becomes somewhere else if Ryan McDonagh comes to Edm? The Oilers need a shutdown D more than they need a 4th small, skilled forward.

      • oilerjed

        Careful Zarny. A team like that could very well turn into the CanSucks 2.0. Good to very good defense but not enough goals to put them over the edge. Imagine if Van didnt have Lou(or Scnieds), their GA would be up 10% and with their low goal totals you could probably take away 10-15 wins a year.

        • Zarny

          I hate to break it to you but the Canucks are light years better than anything the Oilers current roster will ever become.

          Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Yakupov are not going to score 140 pts a season and win every game 7-6.

          Scoring goals isn’t the problem. A core of Hall, Nuge, Yak or Eberle and Perron can score all the goals you need from small, skilled forwards.

          What the Oilers lack is a D who can play against skilled forwards.

          They also lack a top 6 F that can score the types of goals Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak or Perron can’t.

          They also need a G as good as Luongo or Schneider.

    • Craig1981

      Its back to a player that almost got traded early in his career because people thought he wasn’t a complete player. Yzerman….true story. This is why, despite early struggles, I believe Eakins to be a great coach for the Oilers.

  • Word to the Bird

    Nugent-Hopkins and Hall are the only two players I would never trade. So, I guess that would make them the faces of the franchise.

    In reality, it really doesn’t matter who the “face” is. It’s a matter of who is most likely is going to win the Oilers some hockey games.

  • Chainsawz

    Agree with you JW and with the previous posters re: Nuge and Hall. Faces of the franchise and should never be considered in a trade. As far as Gagner is concerned, he doesn’t even belong n the same sentence as Nuge or Hall. It’s not for his lack of effort, it’s just that he’s overplayed and underwhelming.

    • Zamboni Driver

      Okay so I’m compelled to comment on this.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think Lowe has run this ship straight into the ground (‘Hey Fernando, want $4 million?!’).

      I also think Tambellini was a moronic puppet who probably can’t look himself in the mirror anymore.

      I’m a guy who uses quote marks when I speak of “The Braintrust”. I talk about “Six Cups”….

      At this point however, I really don’t fully understand what people calling for the firing of Lowe is actually going to achieve. Sure he deserves it, but he deserved it YEARS ago. I actually think MacTavish is in charge now…and if he’s NOT…then shouldn’t we say “Fire Lowe AND MacT’? But no one is saying that.

      Don’t get it.

  • Coppperhead

    Minus 9!!!!

    I kid I kid. I agree that to my eye Nuge is a fantastic 200 foot player. He does a lot of the little things – stick lifts on the backcheck, subtly getting in another player’s path, finding the open man quickly.

  • Alsker

    Well, honestly considering our shameful franchise, I believe kBlowe should our face. Why hang these problems on one of the kids? Front and center Mr.Lowes mug with the caption:”What a true loser looks like”.
    Of course once/if we’re a decent team again than I’d have to choose RNH.

    EDIT: Of course it also read “what knowing nothing about winning looks like” as well.