How we got here: a brief history of the post-Sather Oilers

When Glen Sather left the Edmonton Oilers for a job in New York in 2000, it was a major milestone for the club. Head coach Kevin Lowe replaced Sather at the helm and launched the current era of Oilers’ history.

The Early Years: 2000-2004

When Lowe replaced Sather as general manager, he immediately set about ushering in changes. He replaced himself as head coach with Craig MacTavish, and around the same time put Kevin Prendergast in charge of the amateur procurment department, replacing the departing Barry Fraser..

This group operated in difficult financial circumstances, and honestly probably don’t get the credit they deserve over this span. The Oilers work at the draft over these years is an article in itself; the team made some terrible picks but also managed to produce six quality NHL’ers (Hemsky, Markkanen, Stoll, Greene, Brodziak, Dubnyk) so while the overall record was bad it didn’t come close to the really atrocious teams (unlike, say, Tampa Bay).

As for Lowe and MacTavish, mistakes were made but the team was quite good relative to dollars spent – they were Nashville before Nashville was Nashville. Over four seasons, the Lowe/MacTavish Oilers went 149-111-47-21 with a plus-58 goal differential; that’s 17 games over true 0.500 while losing players like Weight, Guerin, Carter and others thanks to monetary concerns. For the sake of contrast, Glen Sather’s Oilers went a total of nine games under true 0.500 over the previous four seasons and managed a plus-14 goal differential.

For all the problems, there was a good, competitive roster that only lacked top-end talent.

2005-06

Things changed after the lockout; the Oilers added stars Mike Peca and Chris Pronger to the roster, and after a year spent in Europe Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky were to emerge as bona fide stars. The Oilers barely squeaked into the playoffs thanks to the total implosion of Ty Conklin/Jussi Markkanen, but they were a much better team than they got credit for at the time. To pick one statistic, in the Western Conference only Detroit had a better shot differential than the Oilers; naturally that was the team the Oilers faced in the first round.

(A lot had to go right to get by Detroit – starting with Dwayne Roloson but certainly not ending with him. In game six against the Red Wings, the Oilers were down 3-2 in the third period and facing the prospect of going back to Detroit for a seventh and deciding game; watching it at the time I remember thinking they’d win the series at home or not at all. Ales Hemsky scored to tie the game with four minutes left, jamming the puck at the side of the net past Manny Legace seemingly through sheer will. A little under three minutes later Hemsky scored his second goal of the game – the one in the video above – and won the series for the Oilers.)

The Oilers were full value for their second and third round wins; if not for that Dwayne Roloson injury in game one I still think they would have got past Carolina in the Finals. (Another side point, while we’re righting historical wrongs: Marc-Andre Bergeron may have thrown the hit that ended Roloson’s season, but if Matt Greene hadn’t been beat cleanly on the outside it never would have been an issue. The Oilers’ finals loss typically gets hung on Bergeron and Conklin, both of whom were certainly to blame; it’s just that Greene’s an equally deserving member of that trio.)

Kevin Lowe, though he took too long to address the goaltending and left the Oilers with the trio of Bergeron, Greene and Dick Tarnstrom as their bottom three, was in fine form that year. Aside from the additions of Pronger and Peca, he added Sergei Samsonov at a very reasonable price and absolutely swindled Chicago in a trade to land Jaroslav Spacek – the Oilers got an honest-to-goodness top-four defenceman for the low, low price of Tony Salmelainen and a conditional draft pick.

Post-Pronger: 2006-2010

The summer departure of Chris Pronger for a pile of futures should have triggered a mini-rebuild, particularly given the Oilers’ inability to shore up their blue line. Ultimately, the trade of Ryan Smyth later in the year did kill the Oilers, who added a bunch of futures from Long Island in that deal and drafted Sam Gagner sixth overall that summer. Still, they decided a long rebuild wasn’t for them, and had a busy summer, adding Dustin Penner, Sheldon Souray, and Joni Pitkanen.

The 2007-08 season, where a lousy Oilers team nearly made the playoffs thanks to a) a career year from Mathieu Garon b) a zillion shootout wins and c) an insane percentage run for the “kid line” of Gagner, Robert Nilsson and Andrew Cogliano. In retrospect, it was terrible for the franchise – while the team and at least one local columnist were flushed with success, the Oilers were nowhere near as good as 2007-08 made them seem and years of trying to build on a faulty foundation were to follow.

It took until 2009-10 for the patchwork to really fail, when the decisions to bring in Pat Quinn to coach and sign Nikolai Khabibulin to a four-year contract blew up in spectacular fashion. Steve Tambellini had become the team’s G.M. in the summer of 2008, and given his long history with Quinn it seems likely that he was the primary decision maker at this juncture, though the Oilers power structure is pretty opaque and it’s difficult for any outsider to really judge which minds were responsible for which decisions.

Since Then: 2010-Present

The Oilers tanked in 2010-11. Management did little; Tom Renney, a capable NHL coach who likes to do things like “match lines” went with the Rawhide strategy that year and just rolled ‘em, rolled ‘em, rolled ‘em. While it’s popular among the club’s apologists to say the Oilers did the same thing in 2011-12, they emphatically did not – management brought in Ben Eager and Eric Belanger and Cam Barker and Andy Sutton to solidify the depth up front and on the back end, and seemingly overnight Renney’s in-game management underwent a dramatic change. The fact that he was not retained after a disappointing finish to the season serves as further evidence that the goals had shifted, and the team wanted to start winning again. They have yet to do so.

Legacies

The track record above is necessarily condensed, and could be condensed still further. In my view, while the low-budget years were tough, Lowe and Co. did a pretty decent job of keeping a competitive team together. 2005-06 was a brilliant year. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse: the last few years with Lowe as G.M. didn’t go well and since Steve Tambellini’s hiring “didn’t go well” would be a ridiculously charitable description of the Oilers’ fortunes. Healthy teams don’t blow everything up; they certainly don’t bring in an over-35 goalie and a veteran coach to finish dead last in the NHL.

Looking at the record, the Lowe years were a mix of good and bad early on, but there was more of the former than the latter. The Pronger departure was a blow Lowe’s team never fully recovered from, despite the mirage of 2007-08. The addition of Steve Tambellini coincided with the club stepping into the elevator shaft.

If and when Lowe moves out of the Oilers’ hockey operations department, I suspect I’ll remember him more fondly than many; his work in the early years is underrated and that brilliant 2005-06 run was made by a team he built. The legacy Tambellini has built to date is far less impressive; perhaps he’ll get the opportunity to improve it but if he left office today there would be precious little to recommend him.

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  • Bucknuck

    yay. An article I agree with completely. I think Lowe is a good GM, though he has let pride get in the way a few times (see Smyth and Comrie).

    He get’s a “B-” grade from me for his work during that time, would have been an “A-” if not for his work in 2007-2008 which was pretty terrible. Lowe tried to replace Smyth with Penner, Pronger with Souray, and Spacek with Pitkanen. He expected Horcoff, Pisani, and Moreau to continue playing like they did the previous year. None of it worked.

    Tambellini has been a disaster since he was brought in. The man is addled, yet somehow managed to get an extension. Please get rid. He gets a “D”, and only managed not to get an “F” because he hasn’t traded any of the kids for garbage (yet).

  • remlap

    This is off-topic.. But Jason Strudwick is on this week’s edition of the Jay and Dan Podcast on TSN. Haven’t listened to it yet, but the description says:

    “Former NHLer Jason Strudwick talks about how he ended up with a radio show.”

    Even without Struds on, you should be listening to this podcast every week.

  • match16

    The oilers legacy is lost untill managment changes something,we do have a strong foundation with Hall,Ebs,Rnh,smid and schultz,but Yaks,Dubnyk horcs,smyth,belanger ect need to go to add grit size and veteran presence.keep ganger get rid of hemsky,use a first round draft pick and add the pieces,there is huge upside to this team but need to change thier one dimensional attack/defence and go with it.with a big smart summer this team could be dangerous next year,but with another slow unmanaged summer this team could be in the same spot!let Mact take the gm spot and see if there is a change,but for sure either Tambo or Lowe are stalling the process.

  • Will wrote:

    I’m not as critical of Tambi as others and think he has done some good fundamental things with the club that can’t happen overnight. First and foremost he has overhauled our minor league affiliates and given the Oilers a good pool to draw from and develop young talent. That is going off the Detroit model, and once we finally get a decent team together, assuming we are drafting well, we should have a deep prospect pool for years.

    I kind of cringe a little when people suggest the Oilers are following the Detroit model. Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander, at the very least, would have had a much later NHL debut in the Red Wings organization.

    The Red Wings believe in bringing in veterans and keeping prospects in the AHL until they’re demonstrably too good for that league. The Oilers audition most of their shiny new prospects in the majors very quickly and then send them back to work on stuff in the minors once they start struggling.

    These are fundamentally different development models.

    • Quicksilver ballet

      Good point by yew Jonathon.

      Edmonton and Detroit, two very different destinations. One is desirable and the other one, not so much. This is probably why the rabbit hole goes so much deeper out west here. Heck, if the Oilers weren’t overpaying all these veterans, even they wouldn’t want to be here. ~The things these millionaires have to put up with for the sake of a paycheque~

      If the rewards for the Oilers futility weren’t obligated to come here over the last 4 years, we’d surely be watching an AHL team here in Edmonton now. Maybe we have been these last 7 yrs, and we just didn’t know it.

      Little can be done about the current management. If Katz doesn’t care, nothing really matters. Daryl’s only in it for the money and to grow his real estate empire in Edmonton.

    • Ducey

      Thats bunk.

      Look at the transactions involving the Red Wings prospects the last 3 years. GUys like Abdelkader, Smith, Tatar, Kindle. The bounce back and forth between the NHL and the farm like yo-yos. Often they are called up for a few days and go back down without playing a game.

    • Bucknuck

      Agreed, and I’m not saying what Tambi is dong now is reflective of Detroit. What I am saying is once we have a contending and established team in the NHL, we can be afforded the luxury of stocking our other affiliates with solid prospects and give them time to develop. The aligning and organization of that system I believe was Tambillini’s doing.

      Our prospects have the Oil Kings, the OKC Barons, and the Belville Bulls as places for development, under the management control and sort of direction of Oilers management. That seems like a really great tiered system for our prospects to develop in.

      I agree the Oilers needed something to sell the fans, and there have certainly been some questionable development decisions and many mishandled player situations (see Omark, Magnus, Gagner, Souray … etc).

      But, (and sorry for the comparison) if you take Calgary, there is complete discord from their lower tier affiliates and the NHL team.

      In short, though I don’t think the current incarnation emulates the Detroit model, the frame work is there to begin dumping prospects into the appropriate spots for development. Just look at the logjam at D (though very few seem to be developing at an inspired track). That seems like a position where we have a deep and currently developing prospect pool.

      Would you agree with any of this or would you say there is a better model out there for player development, outside of Detroit?

      • I like some of what Edmonton is doing – and owning a WHL team was always a good idea from this standpoint.

        However, I’ve never bought Lowe’s line about Detroit’s development program being an off-shoot of a strong hockey team. That’s where the difference lies, in my opinion. The Oilers have always rushed prospects under Lowe, even when they didn’t need to – Matt Greene in 2006 is a pretty good example of that.

        The Oilers won’t ever imitate Ken Holland because they lack the patience for it. They’ll get better as the team gets better, but I’ll believe that they stop rushing prospects when they stop rushing prospects, not a moment before.

  • match16

    The game has fundamentally changed in the new cap era. Where before the Oilers had trouble attracting players because of money, now it seems we have difficulty for some other reason. I suppose you could say it’s the city, but I only buy that to a point.

    Tambillini has everything going for him as a GM: an owner with deep pockets that believes in him, a loyal fan base, and a cap situation to be able to make the team potentially competitive.

    I’m not as critical of Tambi as others and think he has done some good fundamental things with the club that can’t happen overnight. First and foremost he has overhauled our minor league affiliates and given the Oilers a good pool to draw from and develop young talent. That is going off the Detroit model, and once we finally get a decent team together, assuming we are drafting well, we should have a deep prospect pool for years.

    However, since Tambi has had the ideal GM situation, I am dissipointed to see he has done so little, or that our signings during his tenure have largely not worked out. Here’s hoping it was all part of the plan and he can actually bring in some key people to build around the talent we’ve accrued.

  • John Chambers

    Wow, i didn’t realize that the Lightning have literally drafted fewer than 6 actual NHL players during the entire 2000’s, and several of those are top-10 picks.

    Worse yet, they blew several other top-10 picks, but their post 1st round selections are atrocious.

      • John Chambers

        Lucky for them their trade, waiver, and UFA record was spectacular – enough to win them a cup.

        Marty St Louis, Khabibulin (when he was good), Stillman, Modin, Fedotenko, Dan Boyle, kubina, and even to this day with Theodore H Purcell.

        You need to win trades and draft well to sustain a winner. Go figure.

  • Ill never believe that the loss of Roloson was the deciding factor in the series against Carolina. The Oilers were in the process of blowing that game in spectacular fashion before Roloson got hurt. In fact I believe it was tied after having a three goal lead. The Oilers should have steam rolled through Carolina in game 7 after destroying them in game 6 but they went into a hostile crowd and couldnt produce. To me that defined that series. With Roloson or without him I believe that series was going 7 and in game 7 without home ice, the Oilers couldnt pull it out.

    • match16

      Yes but if Roloson wasn’t injured, Conklin wouldn’t have been in net to give the puck away for that goal. We COULD have won that game, who knows. But who’s to say Rolie wouldn’t have cost us a game or 2 in the finals himself?

      • Nobody knows for sure what would have happened had Roloson not been injured in that game. And over such a short span, obviously anything *could* have happened.

        Roloson was something else on that run, though. Markkanen filled in fairly well – but Roloson was simply playing such good hockey, and in a series that went the distance my belief is that the difference between “competent” and “superb” would have made up the gap.

        But like I said: nobody really knows.

        • Also Cam Ward was in the same category as Roloson in terms of unbelievability. He was a wall in that series. Edmonton got their chances but Ward stood on his head. If Roloson had stayed in it would have been a goaltender battle and there is a certain confidence a team has with a goalie in the net who’s “locked in”. Not saying they would have 100% won, but their chances would have been better