LANDER’S PROGRESS

lander common

I was hoping to see Anton Lander play with skill for a prolonged period at the end of the season. Why? Two reasons. First, can he score enough to justify a top 9F role? Second, what do his possession numbers look like when playing with good NHL players. It looks like we have our answer.

EXTRA SKATER, THANKS!

I’m a big fan of Extra Skater. There’s good, good stuff available there on every player and it allows us to break things out. For instance, Lander’s NHL time this season is broken into three phases:

  • October 27 (1 game)
  • December 5 to January 2 (11 games)
  • March 14 to March 25 (6 games)

Lander has one point this season, but the second callup sees him playing with better linemates, and getting more time on ice.

  • December 27 to January 2 (10+ minutes per game)
  • March 14 to March 25 (17.5 minutes per game)

Lander is getting a good look in March. Now, part of that is injury, but the Oilers do have options (Smyth, others) they could have pushed, and chose the Swede. His possession numbers also improved:

  • October 27 (3-20 Corsi events, 13% Corsi for 5×5)
  • December 27 to January 2 (59-73 Corsi events, 44.7% Corsi for 5×5)
  • March 14 to March 25 (77-76 Corsi events, 50.3% Corsi for 5×5)
  • Overall (139-169 Corsi events, 45.1% Corsi for 5×5)

The March number, by my adding, is over 50%. Lander is not scoring—he has 1 assist, and that came in the March 18th game against Nashville—but the possession numbers are better.

WHO IS HE PLAYING WITH?

It’s a moving target, but he’s playing with better linemates. In the Oilers most recent game, he spent his 5×5 time with (mostly) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle. The two wingers were north of 50% Corsi 5×5 for in the game.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

WW

The Oilers are trying to rope a few AHL players who can step up and play a complementary role for them in 2014-15. Anton Lander isn’t providing a lot of offense, but given quality linemates the possession numbers look good in a small sample size.

Not ground breaking, but interesting and a tell about Anton Lander. Is it enough? That’s for MacT and Dallas Eakins to decide this summer. 

All Lander stats from Extra Skater.

  • Tikkanese

    In Lander’s defense in the games he’s played has anyone been scoring really ? What has the goals for been in these games ? A poor defense I know but with complimentary players you need to spend some time in the offensive zone every once in a while as a team for them to score.

    • Spydyr

      This all day long. One one hand we are saying to a player who by all rights should be playing his first NHL games “hey boy you have 12 games to make an impression”. On the other he’s being tossed over the boards against murderer’s row to end the season with a D corps that is addled beyond belief. To make a fish or cut bait decision on him is foolish and is how bad teams lose players that turn into useful pieces for other teams.

  • Spydyr

    One point in eighteen games does not a top nine player make.Maybe if he brought some grit or hit or was hard to play against or was a pest.He is none of those things.

    Time to get someone who is.

    • Hi. He IS bringing things. 45% CF% puts him 9th on the team for players that have played at least as many games as he. Ok so it’s not that exciting that the opposition gets 55% of the shots when he is on the ice BUT there are a few things that have me excited besides my eyes: His GF% is 36% and his PDO is 97.9. What this means is people who have the money to bet have all the signs to bet some money on him improving. Do it and you will probably make some money, not because I think so but because the thousands of players that have been in this very situation, most of them bounced back the next year. GF% usually approaches CF%, and PDO usually approaches 100. These numbers mean he’s doing the right things but the bounces aren’t going his way. It’s early but if he keeps this up his luck should change. It’s mildly encouraging. There’s something there.

      Extraskater has a glossary. It took me months to get the hang of it, but it’s worth it, and I am not done.

      For any of you remotely interested in these more useful and accurate statistics and why everyone is going to be using them soon… if you have the time check out this video from a lecture at the University of Alberta:
      http://new.livestream.com/aict/mact

  • Spydyr

    I would like to see the Oilers sign Lander to a two year contract at 1.5 per season. Anton is sitting at 185 lbs. If he can put on 15-20 lbs and add some man strength he will be dangerous. I hope they don’t just give up on him. He just has to develop a little more and become more familiar and comfortable without having to worry about his position. He looks scared of making a mistake or he will be benched. Then I believe we will even have a better player

  • Harry2

    Since when do players get spoon fed icetime/oportunities? I am pulling for Lander bigtime but he has to produce something to warrant his icetime.

    I think an ideal spot for him is on the wing next to Gordon and Hendricks

  • mesa

    I dont think he is the answer… I think he is on the trade parade , along with Gagner.He is not overly big, is not the best skater, and is not a sniper in the NHL sense… pretty good defensively, that makes him a 3 rd liner at best.

    I would sooner have Arcobello instead, if you must.
    He is not even on par with a player like Pajaarvi.

      • toprightcorner

        I get your point on Smyth, not sure Jones adds enough to keep a 22 year old out of the line up.

        @$925 if Lander and /or Pitlick are sent to the AHL and clear waivers the salary will not count against the cap.

        All upside with Lander and Pitlick, you have seen the best from Smyth and Jones

  • toprightcorner

    i dont see Lander making much of an impact on the team next year and every player MacT adds needs to make an impact if the team is expected to improve. Adding average or below average players is what they need to stop doing and in the NHL, Lander would be considered a below average 4C.

    Pass and bring in a vet

  • Visually McDavid

    There is no question the Nugent hopkins, Eberle duo looks much better with Lander on their line than they ever did with Yakupov.

    They’ve been dangerous at times. Lander is a smarter player that finds his ice in the offensive zone and forces the defence to cover him opening up space for Hopkins to work off the half wall. Yakupov just looked lost.

    It should be worrisome to Oil fans that Yakupov hasn’t developed chemistry with anyone. I’d like to see Lander play out the season where he is and barring an offseason trade I’d like to see him have the inside track over Yakupov to start in the top 6 next year.

    Yak needs to earn his way into the top 6. I’m all for our young players learning on the fly but this team needs wins starting next year. If wins come at the expense of Yak’s development so be it. One more 29th place finish and next year the jerseys tossed on the ice will have people in them.

    • Visually McDavid

      THIS is why we should never be allowed to have nice things! Yak embodies an entire season of relentless losing that we fans had to endure. He is a first overall draft pick. Like all of the other kids he was supposed to be our consolation prize for yet another wasted season.

      First overalls are normally considered rare and valuable commodities. However, only in Edmonton could fans have developed first-overall fatigue. He isn’t dominant at 20 years old? Bust. Time to move on.

      I understand that as Oilers fans we are conditioned to expect loss and thus top five picks are just business as usual now. However, I care very much if Yak’s development suffers, as I would love to see some playoff hockey before I’m dead! If they are going to “make him earn his spot,” his production and in turn his value will suffer further. This team needs to decide if the have the necessary patience and time to invest in Yak while he works on the defensive aspects of the game. If not, they need to trade him in this off season.

      Yak’s current value lies entirely in his perceived potential so another year like this one could spell disaster in terms of return if they ultimately intend to trade him anyway. The last thing I want is for other teams to start viewing him as a “project player” and getting him at a steal.

      Sorry for the off topic ramble! I’m with Woogie63 : Lander and Pitlick – both 2 year, one way, $925 per. I feel like one or both players could end up making MacT look pretty smart with a deal like this.

  • toprightcorner

    The Oilers should have stayed the course with Cogliano. He would be perfect in the bottom 6. They’ve really gambled on guys like Petry and Lander being significant difference makers but let’s remember these guys were 3rd rounders. You can only expect so much from them. In Lander’s case, I think we’ve got another player that 6Rings and the crew overvalued. I see him being a 4th line centre, at best.

  • Andresito

    Just watched avs vs nucks game. Hate to say it but avs young core is much better than ours. Not even comparable. We need to do a mini rebuild. Here is a ballsy proposal that could be done… keeping in mind this year we draft draisalt and keel nurse as two core players moving forward.

    Mac T bold moves this off season:

    Trades:
    Rnh for buffalo 1st 2015
    Eberle for islanders 1st 2015+prospect
    Yakupov for florida 1st 2015
    Edm 1st 2015

    New core:
    Hall
    Draisatl
    McDavid
    Perron
    Short term overpaid UFA
    One of the other top 2015 picks
    Nurse
    Klefbom
    Shultz
    Marincin
    Other top ufa short term

    One more painful year to swallow.
    The younger BIG forwards can grow at the same time as older maturing dmen. How it SHOULD have been done in the first place. And generational talent McDavid to play with Hall. How can I contact MacT? Comments??

    • Visually McDavid

      Totally agree about the Avs and Oilers. I’d take Landeskog, Mackinnon, Duchesne,O’Reilly and Statsny any day over Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yak and Gagner. Just way better competitors and complete players.

  • O.C.

    Watching Oil Change tonight is as painful as ever. Can they at least attempt an unbiased documentary instead of the propagandized vomit it is. And they have the gall to call it filmmaking…more like advertising and attempted brainwash.

  • O.C.

    As I have said repeatedly in the past, Lander is useless as an NHL player at this point. He has taken a step forward this year and matured into a productive two way AHL scorer.

    His best hope is to be a late bloomer and eventually become an NHL bottom six defensive specialist. This is the same path Shaun Van Allen took after 5 years of dominating in the AHL. Van Allen became an NHLer at 26 (with another organization).

    This path to the NHL will only work if Lander stays in N.America. Sign him to another two way deal and let him be a scoring leader on the farm. It is no big deal if the Oilers lose him, as they already have Gordon.

  • Chongler

    Lander is a natural leader, at just 18 he was a leader with Timra (SEL), is the current captain of OKC and I think has a lot more upside to his game than we’ve seen. Although he’s more than a PPG and leading the Barons in scoring, his transition into an NHL role would probably be as a more utility type 4th and eventually 3rd line C.

    He does lack footspeed and is currently a bit small to be a physical presence, I could definitely see him working into a Boyd Gordon type role.

    For him to come up, after a couple month away from the NHL, to filling in as a scoring winger has to be big change for him as well as his game. It IS his job and I’m not making excuses for his lack of offensive production, but everyone here knows that the players play best in their element. I believe that his element is as a shutdown C.

    At 22, He should be signed on a Lower cost/term 1-Way deal and start the next season as the #4 C. Who knows, place him in a bit more comfortable situation and his skill/confidence may surprise us down the road.

    On a related note, it’s time to let Jones walk, perhaps extend Smytty for 2 more at under 2M and slide Gadzic to RW. If somehow MacT can add to the CONTRIBUTING depth, have Hendricks playing on the wing instead of #94.

  • Spydyr

    If the Oilers would have kept Cogliano and traded Gagner would Cogliano still have 21 goals or would it be Gagner?

    Cogliano said something very interesting on the radio yesterday. On a good team EVERYONE is afraid of losing their job to someone else and therefore tries harder.

    I don’t think that was meant as a dig just a statement of fact. Do the top six on the Oilers ever have to fear being sent down? What are the consequences for them if they don’t play the system, ie, backcheck and help out the defence?

    Lander will flourish one day but will it be with this team?

    • Spydyr

      By flourish do you mean he will increase his scoring 100% and get two points in eighteen games?

      He just does not appear to have any offense at the NHL level.

  • Serious Gord

    The small sample size of Lander has shown he has zero offensive ability at this level. Playing with Nuge and Ebs should help a little but they have regressed a lot under Eakins and his toupee. I dont want the Oilers to give up on Pitlick and Lander just yet, they need bigger sample sizes. Pitlick looked good earlier this year playing on a scoring line but lost his edge after his injury. Lander needs to improve his footspeed in order to create more chances. He is however a very good option as a defensive winger on a scoring line. A little more physicality would help his cause.

  • Positive Ray of Sunshine

    I hope they sign him because he won’t cost much, is miles better and way more versatile than the other fringe players. (Tell me if you think Jones or Joensuu could dominate the AHL right now). Lander instantly makes our 4th line better and, unlike the current group he can step up to a second or third line role if needed and not look terrible. He is also a utility fielder position wise. It is always useful to have someone who can line up anywhere. Think about it. Who else do we have that could line up LW, RW or C on lines 2, 3 or 4?

    They probably won’t sign him. He’ll end up in Detroit who will turn him into the next Danny Cleary.

  • Serious Gord

    On any really competitive team (top eight) lander wouldn’t get a look for a couple more years. That this is even a conversation tells you the huge distance this team has to cover (and how undeep it is) to be a contender.

  • Call up at best. If we lose him no big deal. Re Oil Change. Just shut this down already. nobody is buying what you’re attempting to sell. There will be no change until heads start to roll. Of course when they finally fire Lowe i guess it will be Messiers turn, then Jari Kurri, then Paul Coffey,then Esa Tikannen,then Ken Linseman,then Grant Fuhr. Still lots of heads we haven’t pulled out of the duffle bag yet.

  • We cannot affort to keep throwing big money at UFAs to fill holes. I expect the team to throw big money at a veteran UFA defenceman. So as long as Lander can float in the deep end, he gets a contract. Lander’s the best of the up-and-coming forward crop at this time.