ROY AND CHASE: VALUE

chase ferguson 1

One prospect was taken in the second round, the other in the seventh. Just one year later, the seventh-round selection has an NHL entry-level deal, the praise of his coach and is looking at a final junior season that may involve the World Junior Championships. The other remains unsigned and coming off an injury-plagued season.

Greg Chase and Marco Roy were separated by five rounds, but in reality they were much closer in quality.

DRAFT YEAR STATS

MARCO ROY draft year stats

chase draft year stats

Roy has a slight edge at EV scoring, and a clear advantage on the power play but we know PP points are a lot about opportunity. Chances are neither of these two players will get a lot of 5×4 in the NHL, so the EV points are the big item. Remember, Marco Roy was taken No. 56 overall, Chase No. 188.

DRAFT YEAR +1 STATS

roy draft plus one stats

Chase draft plus one stats

Roy’s EV numbers ran in place year over year (he suffered a significant hand injury and a concussion), and he was not used/as effective on the power play. Chase received more time with the man advantage (there is anecdotal evidence that he still wasn’t getting 1PP time) and at evens the seventh-round selection trumped Roy.

For Chase, the rewards have been plentiful. Invite to WJ camp, an NHL contract, rave reviews from Dallas Eakins and one night on the top line with Nuge and Hall. THAT is a terrific 2014.

Roy? Quite the opposite. Those injuries impacted his season, he does not have a contract with the Oilers and Roy was dealt to the Quebec Remparts over the offseason. That could be good news, as the Remparts host the Memorial Cup this year—meaning Roy will be in it, assuming good health and the creek don’t rise.

Except.

Except even that isn’t certain. An article in Le Journal De Quebec indicates the Remparts have some issues in regard to their overage players (I’m using google translate here):

  • Attackers 20 years Taylor Burke and Marc-Olivier Roy have each been cut by the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers yesterday.
    Since Kurt Etchegary and Adam Chapman have been active since the
    beginning of the season, the Remparts therefore left with four players
    20 years, one more than the legal limit.

Source

It isn’t all bad for Roy, though. He scored a very nice goal this week, off a pass from Leon Draisaitl:

  • Roy: “It was a beautiful feeling. This is my first career goal at Rexall Place and I never felt anything like it. Supporters were all up!”
  • Roy: “I’m more mature physically and mentally. I feel good on the ice.”

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

deal

The issue here isn’t that Marco Roy has failed miserably, or even that Greg Chase has pulled himself up and turned his career around. The truth is this: Greg Chase was a second-round talent who fell to Round 7 because all of the other teams were focused on their list instead of value.

Credit to the Oilers for grabbing him, credit to Chase to delivering a terrific year. Marco Roy remains a quality prospect, but he needs a strong season without injury in order to earn that NHL contract.

There’s work to do in Quebec City this winter.

  • pkam

    A 7th round pick turns out to be an NHL player is pure luck. I won’t give much credit to the scouting.

    Compare his number to Roy in their junior year, I would think he should be a 3rd round pick, or in worst scenario a 4th rounder. Even a 3rd round pick is still an excellent pick for his performance in draft + 1.

    I wonder how all 30 teams let Chase fell to the 7th round, especially the Flames when Chase plays his juniors in Calgary. They had a chance to pick him right before us in the 7th round and they pick somebody else? IOW, the Flames didn’t see this coming at all.

    • HardBoiledOil 1.0

      ^i have often wondered the same thing! and the Flames had the pick before us in the 7th and passed on him too. very lucky there! but the Oilers were aware of Chase and , despite his lack of numbers, was exactly the type of player the Oilers needed for the bottom lines in the future, yet kept passing on him. i guess we just had to have our long shot picks like Evan Campbell and Aiden Muir first before they got away….*shakes head*.

  • HardBoiledOil 1.0

    I’m excited about both of these guys for the future. both seem to be quality non first round picks, along with Yakimov, Moroz, Khaira and Marincin. maybe Stu and the boys can actually draft quality support players for their stars after all, despite being awful at drafting goalies?

  • The Soup Fascist

    Can’t help but to think some of Chase’s “antics” in his first couple of years in the WHL hurt him a little bit in the draft.

    The “kiss blowing” a couple of years ago after a shoot out goal vs. the Oil Kings. His alleged stepping over the line in terms of taunts to opponents. That stuff can get other players hurt or force them into situations they do not want to be in – because of a yappy teammate. The Flames would have been more aware of that than anyone.

    Credit the young man, he appears to have matured a ton and – if that is the case – he is EXACTLY what the Oilers need. A skilled guy with a bit of a nasty edge. I don’t think he will ever have his stick skills (few do) but he could be a bigger, nastier (though slightly less talented) David Perron. The fact he came into camp in crazy shape is an excellent sign that Chase “gets it”.

    He needs to play on the edge but not too far over it. The problem with the pests is they can piss off teammates as much as the opposition sometimes. I think – and hope – Chase has figured out the balance. If he has and gets off to a good start I really think the kid makes Team Canada for the WJHC. His confidence should be through the roof after not looking out of place with Hall and RNH.

  • HardBoiledOil 1.0

    Chase has certainly been a splendid and excellent late round draft pick and big cheers to him for working his butt off to move up as a top prospect with a great future. I will definitely be watching him in the WHL and hopefully the WJC this coming year.

    Roy got hurt last year and his play just a bit…but… I believe this kid is more mature and with very good potential still. maybe he isn’t flashy but he seems to find the right spot to be in for a shot or play offensively. He is just a kid coming off a bed yr and if he can bring back good numbers he becomes a strong asset to develop more with the Oil or be a part for a trade. IMO, I think he can.

    I’m not worried too much about Roy right now. he had a very decent rookie TC, IMO. its other kids and players that I am much more concerned about being wasted type players…like Bunz, Platzer, Houck, Kessy, Betker, Tuohimma, then Aulie and Lander, etc.

    • HardBoiledOil 1.0

      another mediocre year from Bunz and injury filled, non productive year from Hamilton and they will both likely be gone after this year. and this is likely the last chance for Lander to show something scoring wise. he’s being pushed hard by some of the other prospects and is running out of time.

  • justDOit

    Cheering like heck for both of these guys, but I was really impressed with Chase in his TC stint. Great skater, very poised (Oiler keyword – huh? huh?) and talented with the puck, great shot, good vision, and feisty as all get-out.