APPROXIMATE TRADE VALUE

gernat common 4

This is Martin Gernat. The young Slovak is progressing as a pro player after a solid junior career. Observers mention his connection to Martin Marincin from time to time—they’re from Kosice, Slovakia, they both play defense, and they both need to eat an extra steak or two over the summer—and they do have a lot in common. One area they are different? The current trade value.

APPROX TRADE VALUE

Marincin is a young player who has some NHL games under his belt. He would fetch something very nice in trade, like a more established (if less promising) NHL defenseman. Gernat? Well, he just doesn’t have a lot of value right now, despite a nice looking future. Why? Every NHL team has a Martin Gernat, a young defenseman scuffling through his AHL seasons trying to button down the defense while maintaining enough offensive production to get more power-play time. He’s at a different point in his development. Here’s an attempt to peg ‘trade value’ by player, and I’d love your input. I’ll do a cross section of Oilers and Barons, along with a few select prospects.

  • Taylor Hall. He’s not a trade item. You could trade your franchise player for another, like John Tavares, but why bother?
  • Nail Yakupov. Only deal that seems suitable is for an impact prospect like Nichushkin in Dallas or Jonathan Drouin. I doubt another team would trade for the struggling Russian now anyway, but you’d have to get exceptional talent to make it happen.
  • Jordan Eberle. Aside from the Wanye Wailing Wall that would be created outside Wanye manor, the Eberle trade would shock the foundations of the rebuild. You would have to get a quality offensive player in exchange, a James Neal or something near that level. Tough to make this trade, because teams rarely have enough depth to trade one of these without getting another right back.
  • David Perron. He’s good, has term left on his deal and appears to be signable. For a team like Edmonton, that’s all very valuable. You would need a similar contract in return. If St. Louis wanted him back I’d ask for TJ Oshie.
  • Sam Gagner. His contract and difficult season make this a very difficult time to trade him. Under normal circumstances, Gagner could fetch a quality player in his early 20’s, but I think he might go for a 2nd and a 4th round pick, somewhere in there. It may be too harsh, but that contract is going to scare off teams this summer.
  • Bord Gordon. You could get a nice player back for Gordon — he’s signed, delivered a wonderful year and it would have meant more with a contender. I’ll say Chris Tanev and make both sides of the deal mad at me.
  • Andrew Ference. Veteran struggled this season, but these guys have wonderful sustainability in trade. I bet you could get Matt Bartkowski and maybe a late pick from Boston (except they have too many defensemen, and many are aging).
  • Jeff Petry. I think you could get a significant value for Petry, he’s young and has experience. Many Oiler fans aren’t fond of him, but a team looking for puck movers would give up a nice asset. I bet NJD would offer Adam Larsson plus a little more for him. I don’t think Edmonton should make that trade.
  • Martin Marincin. You could get a lot, he’s still an entry level contract and played significant minutes as a rookie. NHL teams rarely trade these guys because why would you? I think you could get Curtis Glencross (one year from UFA) and a pick for him. That’s a nice player.
  • Darnell Nurse. A high first-round pick this season, and like most of the players drafted around him, Nurse had a fine year. His value has not decreased.

So, there you go. Completely unscientific but a fun exercise. Agree? Disagree? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

  • 15w40

    There’s not a single chance in hell that at best Gagner would only fetch a 2nd round pick (oh, and a fourth). We’re talking about a perennial 50 point player since he was 18 years old on a perennially awful, awful team that has had a new head coach every year since he’s been in the league except maybe next year.

    Yes, he’s getting paid a little more than people would like but there are a few teams out there that are dying for that offense and already have the defensive structure and depth that the Oilers are lacking to make up for his weaknesses. Even if the Oilers ate that extra million or so that might make teams squirm a little, he will still fetch a useful player back.

    A second round pick is a maybe-kinda-sorta make the NHL pick if we pick right. It’s by no means a guarantee and every GM knows this. Gagner has proven what he’s capable of year in and year out. MacT should respond to all offers of a 2nd round pick with an instant swipe of the End Call button on his cell phone since that GM’s literally just trying to rob him blind and hoping MacT’s gone temporarily insane.

    I realize Gagner’s a popular whipping boy around here but he’s got value and more than a 2nd round pick, c’mon now. You have a lot of good insights Lowetide but sometimes you let the odd one go by that really makes me scratch my head. Do you do it just so you have something to fuel the comments? If so, congrats, successfully done.

    • Spydyr

      Honest question: Did you even watch Oiler games last year? Gagner was Hoooooorrible. Plain and simple. His value has diminished to the point where and 2nd and a 4th IS the best we can hope for. As for his history… he has zero to no defensive instincts, never has. Can’t win a face off if his life depended on it. And physical battles?? Come on. He is not a 2nd line Center on ANY team that hopes to compete for a Stanley Cup.

      • camdog

        I sort of agree with both of you. Gagner’s value has fallen. Maybe it is only a 2nd and a 4th. But should the Oilers make that trade before July 1st this year? I say no! You wait for his value goes back up. Which it likely will. The only to do the 2nd/4th trade is to create cap space. The Oilers do not need it! The Oilers had to trade Hemsky; he was a soon to be free agent who would not sign a reasonable contract. If Gagner cannot fetch a 3/4 defenseman or a useful 3rd liner I say wait. Hemsky was a fire sale HE WAS GOING TO WALK every other team knew it. You have to ask for a real NHL player in return for Gagner. Otherwise no deal…Oilers should wait. You cannot compare Gagner’s value to Hemsky’s two totally different situations.

        • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

          Problem with that is, that the Oilers management are weak. They are desperate having missed the playoffs for eight seasons. They are in the firing line of an angry fan base. But even putting that aside, they simply don’t have the courage to trade players when they are at optimal value. If they keep Gagner for another year and he plays better, they will not trade him!!! They only trade players who are under-performing or who question them in public, hence why Gagner is on the block now, and Yak is also in a precarious situation.

          It’s Arnott and Hemsky and Horcoff and Souray and Lupul etc…all over again.

          • 15w40

            I think management will continue to be patient with this rebuild. With MacT I think management is stronger but coaching is weaker than a year ago. There is only weak justification for keeping the status quo in the coaching area.

  • Spydyr

    If we draft bennet, we almost have to trade eberle for a big winger like Kane or Neal otherwise those big Cali teams will still lean on us.

    Eberle has value and the ability to allow us to change the dynamic of our top 6. Make the trade.

    I do prefer draisaitl and trading eberle but still ok with bennet.

  • OilersDynasty

    Treating the symptoms never works. A trade here a draft pick there, it is all leading to the same place. Have we learn’t anything in the last 8 years?

  • Word to the Bird

    2nd and a 4th for gagner? Awesome. Combine him with Hemsky and this franchise would have traded 2 high first round picks for jelly beans and magic prayer beads

  • oilerbuff

    The deal I think that is doable is Gagner to Chicago for Mark McNeil and a late round pick. The Hawks want a second line center who can play with Kane. Gagner and Kane together again are just what the Hawks want. Keeping Kane happy is job 1A.

    Would Perron to the Leafs for their 8th overall pick and a second round pick be doable. I want the pick so I can have a shot at Ritchie or Dal Colle.Or Nylander.

    I give up Gagner and Perron so I can land a bigger fish like Jordan Stahl.I believe the canes are looking at dumping salary after the season they have had. Its not like they have the revenue like the Oilers.

    The interesting situation that is brewing is in Ottawa. If Spezza is out then all bets are off. Spezza will bring back a premium asset to the Senators. Perhaps they get back their 10th overall pick from Anaheim and something else like DSP.

    The Nucks have a massive decision to make this off season. With aging superstars in the Sedins locked up for 3 more seasons do they sell off now or try to tweak this train wreck? Its not like they have RL and CS in the net anymore to bail them out.

    If I am the Jets I am shopping for center help. Kane will never get over the hump if he has the likes of Little and Ladd passing him the puck. The honeymoon is over in Winnipeg. Renewals are in and from what we are hearing the Jet fans will be back in droves. But they have OP in net. And perhaps that will be addressed this offseason.

    The Oilers have a lot of nice assets and fans with the patience of Father Time. We need to get bigger. We have an asset in Perron that at this point is at a high value. We have a plethora of young mobile defencemen(Philly does not)that could net a considerable asset in return. Either way we are at a point where we need to cash in on those assets and build a bigger more physical team that can compete against the Pacific Divisions monsters.

  • BlazingSaitls

    Not much out there, especially looking at that list. Only option is to trade draft picks and prospects.

    Do It,
    Oiler domination to follow?

    What do I know, Im turning into a fricken Condor fan now

  • 15w40

    Based on the current roster makeup and what they have coming from the prospects, I would say the Oilers are in more need of a solid centreman than a defenseman.

    If you draft Ekblad, then they will immediately have to look at trading Nurse, Schultz, Petry, Klefbom, or Marincin or some combination of them plus other parts to get a centreman that they so desperately need.

    Based on the scouting reports I have read and what the potential return might be the defenseman I am trading is either Schultz or Petry and more likely leaning toward Schultz.

    Ekblad is said to have really good offensive instincts and Marincin already showed that he has decent skills as well.

    Petry has more games and is more reliable at this point. Package up Schultz and resign Philip Larsen on the cheap to play lots of PP time in place of Schultz. Pretty sure what little offence the Oilers were able to generate from the back end won’t irreparably suffer with J. Schultz’s departure.

    If management doesn’t want to trade any of their current hot prospects on the back end then they better draft a centreman this year

  • OilersDynasty

    Oilers should follow the “Moneyball” approach. Get undervalued players to help the team out, through trade, draft, and free agency. A perfect example of that is Brandon Saad. Scouts passed over him due to, I believe, skating and performance issues. Now look at him. One of Chicago’s best players, a perrenial 20-30 goal power forward taken 43rd in 2011.

    • Spydyr

      They have been 1 of the worst teams in professional sports for the last 8 years, and now you think they can pick undervalued players and make them stars.

      Ha Ha Ha

      • OilersDynasty

        I didn’t say make them stars. The Moneyball approach is finding undervalued players, players other teams don’t want, either in trade, free agency, or the draft, to help make your team more competitive. I gave Brandon Saad as an example, not as a guideline.

    • Word to the Bird

      What?? Brandon Saad has only played 2 NHL seasons and has never scored 20 goals. He had 10 last year. How is he a perrenial 20 to 30 goal scorer?

      • OilersDynasty

        His first year was a shortened one. He had 10 goals in 46 games. Over a full 82, that is 20. This year he had 19, one off of 20, so yeah, perennial, I think so, and based off the way he’s been playing in these playoffs, it’s not a stretch to say that he is.

        • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

          So a guy scores (or is on pace for) 20 goals for 2 years makes him a perennial 20-30 goal guy? I guess that makes him a perennial 20-60 goal guy as well! Sign em up!

  • Spydyr

    Just don’t trade Marincin for an older player.This team is not ready nor will it be ready to make the playoffs never mind being a contender for another 2-3 years by then Marincin will be entering his prime.

    Do not trade for any player over 24 unless it is an number one defenceman under 27.

    This team needs way to much for a quick fix to put them over the top.

    Stay within the age group of the core for now.When they are ready to contend add some veterans.

  • Word to the Bird

    On the topic of Eberle, why trade him for another forward? Isn’t all that the NHL says about Edmonton is that they have no defense to complement their star forwards? Trade Ebs for a Yandle type defenseman and pray that Yakupov can gel with Hall and Nuge on the top line.