DRAFT THOUGHTS AT 1AM

draisaitl capture 1

The Edmonton Oilers entered the weekend with one lottery pick and 5 lottery tickets, and that’s exactly what happened.

No. 3 overall Leon Draisaitl is already an Edmonton favorite, the big man said all the right things after being chosen to right the world from the center position.

  • Draisaitl: “I’m going to have to do my job and earn my spot if I want to play in
    that league and on that team,” he said. “I think they’re moving forward
    for sure and they made some good trades, (David) Perron, and the guys
    are getting older and more mature. This is just awesome right now.”

Source: Steven Whyno, Canadian Press

lagesson

William Lagesson was the next pick, he’s a two-way defender with size and the ability to move the puck. Stu MacGregor made a point of mentioning how much he enjoys the battle. It’ll be years before we see him, but I think that’s good value for a 4th round selection.

ZACH NAGELVOORT

zach nagelvoort stats

You have to like that run of save percentages dating back as far as the eye can see. Goalies are tough to figure out, but this guy has a strong resume based purely on boxcars. Keeping in mind he was selected No. 111 overall I’m pleased with the pick.

  • No. 130: Liam Coughlin—I often have Kirk Luedeke from Red Line Report on the Lowdown, and he texted this to me today about Coughlin:Luedeke: “Big kid, can skate. Had him as my
    “super sleeper” a year ago, but didn’t see him at Vernon. Raw as hell
    but passionate, industrious”
  • No. 153: Tyler Vesel—Impressive scoring numbers over several years, most recently in the USHL. Stu MacGregor: “He’s a scorer. He had a tremendous year and he’ll be
    going to Nebraska-Omaha where Dean Blais is a competitive coach who
    develops players.”
  • No. 183: Keven Bouchard—Stu MacGregor: “It’s always difficult with
    goaltenders when they don’t play a lot but we had an eye on him from the
    previous year and I happened to be at a game this season where he did
    play and had a period at the Memorial Cup. He’s a guy with potential.
    He’s very fit and strong and he’s willing to put in the work. Freddie
    Chabot and Sylvain Rodrique (goalie coaches) know him really well and
    have worked with him.”

REMINDS ME….

This is so much like the 2008 draft. Edmonton took Jordan Eberle in round one, didn’t have a second or a third round selection, and then drafted Johan Motin, Phil Cornet, Teemu Hartikainen and Jordan Bendfeld.

Career Numbers:

  • Jordan Eberle: 275GP, 96-125-221
  • Johan Motin: 1GP, 0-0-0
  • Phil Cornet: 2GP, 0-1-1
  • Teemu Hartikainen: 52GP, 6-7-13

Six years later, those are the boxcars for the 2008 entry draft. I think Leon Draisaitl will play more NHL games than Jordan Eberle in his first six seasons (he should be over 400) but the rest of this 2014 draft class can reasonably be expected to score about the same in terms of NHL games played.

The lesson here: those second and third round picks are valuable, because there are still good players available. Craig MacTavish received very good value for those picks (David Perron and Ben Scrivens), and I’m not suggesting they were mistakes.

It is worth noting that the picks traded away over the last 12 months turned into Ivan Barbashev and Dominic Turgeron today, and that stings more than a little.

  • Walter

    MacT had to cash some chips to fill in the roster with NHL players but we lose young prospects in the meanwhile not picking second and third rounders and the never ending cycle continues. The scouts need to find some players in later rounds and the pro scouts need to do a better job. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile.

  • lesterthebaddest

    i wonder if the oilers are aware that they are actually allowed to draft a defenceman that shoots right.

    it just really seems that there is no thought process behind who they are drafting after the first round. they cant seriously think that they are finding these 20 year old gems other teams have missed on do they? i cant think of another reason for the arbitrary nature of their drafting. they are just all over the map and have almost a zero percent success rate doing it going back for, well, a long time.

    as much as i want to see draisaitl in the lineup, they need to send him back to junior, and then give him one year in the ahl. bring him in as a fully formed player. please don’t ruin this guy.

    • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

      For better or for worse, that decision is a process not a yes/no binary decision point. They will evaluate how he plays at camp. If he plays well he gets nine games in the bigs. His performance in those nine games determine whether or not a return to Junior would benefit him.

      As fans we should be hoping he’s ready for the NHL like many top 3 first round picks have been. Percentage wise….odds are…he will make the big club right out of the gate….that’s not a bad thing.

      Hoping he returns to Junior without having evaluated his performance at camp and those first nine games is defeatist type thinking….and not good.

  • Walter

    Was looking for a token Oil King to be drafted like 19 year old Kulda . I believe they drafted 2 other 20 year olds . Hard to make any assessment on draftees beyond Draisaitl as have never seen any of them play even one minute . In fact I don’t believe I have ever heard of them , so how they could be NHL material is a mystery to me .Their stats are not over whelming either . I guess we’ll see them at training camp with any luck .

  • Walter

    Perron is a proven NHL forward with a greasy side the Oilers need. I would trade a second round pick in a heartbeat for that any day. Scrivener is also looking like a steal for a third. MacT has work to do but these were good moves.

  • Germoil

    What’s with all this talk about centers and wingers?

    With a first pair dman this team has a chance at being semi competitive. Without one, there’s no point in even watching them struggle.

    Go get a first pairing defensman.. Call it a “bold” move or call it “trying to compete in the NHL” just get one

    • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

      IMO the Oilers have made it pretty clear that they are not going to do that. Their plan to contend is a 3 year plan 2016-17. They intend to play defense by committee with the likes of Nurse, Marincin, Klefbomb, Schultz.

      They will augment with likes of the Nikitin’s and Fayne’s of the world. Perhaps a Boychuck or two.

      They have no intention of trading away any players they consider core.

      They promised Bold…..Shock and Awe…..I’m shocked….sounds like you are too!

      The plan probably accounts for the fact that it’s VERY difficult to attract Tier 1 Dmen when you are a perennial cellar dwellar with an unstable management team, and that once they are a playoff team and have had a consistent GM and coaching staff in place for a few years, it will be easier to attract top end free agent Dmen at a more reasonable price.

  • yay 1 AM

    Thoughts:

    Oilers need 2nd line center: Shaun Horcoff
    Oilers need top 6 winger with size who can score: Dustin Penner
    Oilers need top 2/4 D man: Chris Pronger/Sheldon Souray
    Oilers need tough dman: Theo Peckham
    Oilers need 3rd liners: Curtis Glencross/Jason Chimera/Andrew Cogliano

    • Wax Man Riley

      Hahahahaaa nice line of thought.

      They could use more D: Gilbert, Pitkanen, Coffey.

      Better centres: Cogliano, Stoll, Arnott, Gretzky, Messier, Peca

      I could go on, this is fun! It makes no sense to bring up players from 5-8 years ago

    • Oil Vice

      Your forgetting Doug Weight, Janne Niinimaa, Todd Marchant and Bryan Marchment….oh wait none of those guys play anymore… kinda like Chris Pronger…Souray and Horcoff won’t be playing much longer and Peckham would have trouble cracking OKCs roster…where’s your head at?

      • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

        Lowtide was kinda makin a funny…..trying to point out that at one point in time we already had what we need now…….and we let them go for no apparent good reason…..he’s pointing out how strange it is that….to a man…we had in our organization EXACTLY the players we so desperately need now and cannot find….Isn’t it Ironic….a Jagged Little Pill….kinda tough to swallow.

      • Germoil

        He lost me somewhere between Penner and pancakes.

        I’d love to see a center brought in… Especially a 2nd line type. Competition is excellent and right now, unfortunately LD could be gifted a difficult #2C job. Another veteran d man would be great as well… Something that would keep us competing. I liked Hendricks and I’ve always felt Gordon was an upgrade on Horcoff. Add to that Perron and Scrivens and I’d say it’s been a step in the right direction over the last 12 months.

        Alternatively, we could continue to bust out the suck and add McDavid at next year’s draft. I mean, isn’t that all we have to look forward to anymore? The only problem is we might get DENIED BY SCRIVENS.

        No I’m not drunk, it’s just this pit I’ve been in since last November that I refuse to crawl out of until we win 50% or greater of our hockey games.

  • lesterthebaddest

    So what do they do now? they have their 2nd line center for the future, but no guarantees he makes the show next year? Go hard for Stastny,Legwand? Keep Gagner at center another year??

  • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

    Oilers need to take there chances with 18 year olds not 20 year olds who play well with kids younger then them. Besides top 2 picks, this was another bad draft for the Oil

    • Lexi

      If you go through the last ten years of drafts, I would say well over half the late round hits have been overagers (Palat, Shaw, Gudas, Prout, Craig Smith, Kruger, Weise, Wingels, Demers, Martinez, Hagelin, Bonino, Braun, MacDonald, Dorsett, Winnik, Streit, Rinne, Grabo, Callahan). It looks to me that overagers and small skilled guys are the biggest market inefficiencies in the NHL draft.

      I have no clue about Vesel, but he that’s a lot of points in the fourth best junior league and there are definitely comparable guys who have made it.