What should the Edmonton Oilers be willing to trade for Patrik Berglund?

Berglund

The St. Louis Blues are stacked at centre. Paul Stastny and KHL star Jori Lehtera (who looks like he’ll be a top-nine forward immediately) join a group that already had a pretty good quartet in David Backes, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund and Max Lapierre.

It’s been suggested that the Blues would probably be very willing to move Berglund. Is he a fit in Edmonton?

The Scoring

Season PTS/60 NHL Rk.
2008-09 1.83 135
2009-10 1.25 290
2010-11 1.76 155
2011-12 1.70 154
2012-13 1.39 221
2013-14 1.72 146

By offence, Berglund isn’t really a second-line centre. On average he scores about 1.6 points per hour at even-strength and places around 183rd among NHL regular forwards in that category. That makes him an exceptional third-liner (which is the role he was in with the Blues), but a decidedly below-average second line player.

Underlying Numbers

Berglund 7.2.14

chart via somekindofninja.com

Decent if unspectacular totals here. Berglund outperformed the team mostly in years where it wasn’t very good, with 2013-14 being the exception to the rule; it’s also worth noting that he’s done much better when spotted in the offensive zone rather than being asked to do defensive zone lifting (no surprise there).

Everything here points to a really good third-line pivot to me. The Blues have been an awfully good team the last few years and Berglund’s been in the range (give or take a little) of what we would expect in terms of Corsi over the last three years.

Other Stuff Worth Noting

57-Perron-8

  • Berglund has some history with David Perronin 2008-09 in particular the pair had a pretty decent run together against good opponents.
  • Berglund’s a nice acquisition in at least two other ways. He just turned 26, so he’s still in the prime years of his career, and at 6’3”, 217 pounds he helps the Oilers with their desire to add size.
  • St. Louis has been a top-10 team on the penalty kill for three consecutive seasons (second in the NHL in 2013-14). Berglund has averaged about 1:30 per game with the Blues shorthanded in each of those three seasons.
  • Berglund’s also been used on the power play, mostly on the second unit, where he posts consistently mediocre point totals but been part of a unit with decent overall effectiveness.
  • Berglund’s faceoff win rate is consistently in the 47 percent range.
  • Looking quickly at the NHL’s real-time stats, Berglund’s not an over-the-top hitter but he does land checks.

Summary

Patrik Berglund is a quality No. 3 centre at even-strength by virtually any measure, adds value on the penalty kill and is probably a replacement-level power play option. Given his age, he’s likely to stay at that level for some time to come. He’s not a good fit for the Oilers’ vacant No. 2 centre position, but is a strong candidate for the No. 3 job and could presumably be asked to play over his head for a season or two (though a contender wouldn’t do it).

The value on that player type fluctuates, but this isn’t a situation where Edmonton should even consider dealing a first round pick. Last year Perron fetched a good young NHL player (Magnus Paajarvi) and a second round pick in trade; Berglund plays centre but not as high up the lineup so a second round pick and a decent prospect would seem a reasonable deal.

St. Louis just added forwards at the draft and has a bunch of good right-shooting defensive prospects, but could use some lefties; the Oilers have a bunch and could certainly move one.

RECENTLY BY JONATHAN WILLIS

  • bwar

    Oy do we ever need a center. we were poor down the middle before they traded gagner but we have no one to take his place. got to pick someone up or we will have nug,lander,arco and gordon….. not the best center depth if you ask me. theres a bunch out there still that have not been signed.

      • ubermiguel

        Clearly moving Ebs is not a popular trade offer with the Nation, but not even with the “high pick”, e.g.: STL’s 1st pick in 2015, coming back? You have to give up something to get something, and we are not bargaining from strength. Has anyone else noticed half of our centres are AHL/CHL players?

        • The Blues don’t have a 2015 1st overall pick.

          Further, given the choice between trading Eberle for Berglund and a pick and overpaying Grabovski while keeping Eberle, there is no choice.

          The Oilers aren’t dealing from a position of strength, but Berglund isn’t a No. 2 centre either; blowing their brains out for a No. 3 pivot isn’t a smart thing to do.

          • ubermiguel

            Alright, so my first suggestion is a lousy one. And of course you overpay Grabovski first (he is a perfect fit on the ice as you’ve shown), but if October rolls around and you’re looking at RNH, Draisaitl, Gordon, and Arcobello down the middle you need to make a bold move. If this team stinks to high heaven for another year then they’ve just destroyed another year of development (and contract) for all the expensive assets on the payroll by teaching them how to lose instead of how to win.

            I had forgetten about that pick being gone, so it’s not that particular pick, and maybe you ask for something else coming back. But we have a surplus of two things: wingers and defence prosepcts. If you think a prospect and a pick will get Berglund (or an equivalent centre) even better, but if it doesn’t then we have to look moving an expensive winger.

    • Dockstaff

      well Lander and a pick gets the phone hung up, for Berglund the only thing that would entice St Louis is Yakapov. Oilers garbage is not getting you a big centre, especially considering they can just as easily move him to the wing where he was last year.

      • Gordie Wayne

        Are you serious? Yakupov had one bad season-ever heard of a sophmore slump (i.e. galchenyuk and huberdeau)-and just for that you are willing to give him up for a 3rd line center? Yakupov is going to score 40 goals in the NHL, Berglund would likely get the oilers 40 points. Come on dude, a 2nd round pick, lander and someone like musil should be enough to get Berglund.

        • Only one bad season? Well when you put it that way….

          He has only played one and a half seasons and he has been beyond brutal for nearly all of that, even by rookie standards. Terrible player who shows no desire to change. Questionable attitude.

        • Wow, if you think

          Lander – who just because he has played for the Oilers does not mean he would come close to being a player for the Blues

          Musil – a “prospect” who many do not think will ever see the NHL

          2nd – which would likely be in the 40 – 45 range

          is enough for a PROVEN NHL player then you must be high. I also love how you say Yakapov will be a 40 goal scorer – based on what, you realize he had a great last 10 games of his first year otherwise nothing so far would say he would be there. Then you go an undervalue Berglund saying he will only get 40 points where he has shown more likelihood to score at least 50 points than Yakapov’s 40 goals.

          • Grant

            A couple of little facts you seem to forget, first Kesler only wanted to be traded to two teams, one of which could not afford to fit him under the cap so yeah I would not expect too much in return from the ONE TEAM that realistically was going to get him. Second history has shown that star players VERY VERY rarely get anything beyond a average to ok player and magic beans so I would not be bringing those two into an argument for trade value.

        • So you trade a proven NHL player for two magic beans in lander and a pick, well that is why you are not a GM either. I know oilers fans think that every team should be running each other over to give them players for nothing but I hate to tell you when teams trade with each other they do it for needs, and for St Louis that is scoring today to compete for a cup today.

        • ubermiguel

          Well it is a very poor first overall pick. That is the probably the best case scenario you could expect in return for Yakupov.

          The Eberle suggestion would be foolhardy.

        • bwar

          You have a good third line centre so we will give you a guy who has not been able to routinely crack the oilers as a centre and a useless pick for him, if I am St Louis where do I sign up for that trade

          • The original poster said Lander and a pick, so in what world do you think that is going to get you Berglund. Yes anything beyond the first round pick is pretty much magic beans so yes it is useless for a team that is going for the Stanley Cup today.

          • A 2015 2nd round pick has some currency, especially coming from the Oilers and especially for a team with an internal cap. It was a big ingredient in the Perron trade a year ago and I wouldn’t swap Perron straight across for Berglund.

            I agree they wouldn’t want Lander, but a guy like Martin Gernat, David Musil or Dillon Simpson might appeal, given the paucity of left shot D prospects in their system.

          • ubermiguel

            Perron was traded because they were going to be over the cap when they signed Pietrangelo (because for some reason Derrek Roy at 4 mil was needed), and I know it has been said they are a internal budget team but they were at the cap last year and this year it looks that way again, with 6 mil left to sign sobotka and Schwartz so the Oilers are not going to grab the blues in weakness for a 4th time. If the Oilers are guaranteed to be a bottom three team then yes there may be some value to that pick but honestly this team is more of a 10 – 15 range pick so that second round pick is 45 – 45 and now you are entering magic bean territory.