DESTINATION PETRY: THE MONTREAL CANADIENS

petry common33

At some point over the next several weeks, the Edmonton Oilers will probably send away Jeff Petry to the highest bidder. The trade deadline is a time for rentals but Petry is a player who has far greater value because of his youth and perceived future value. He has a lot of miles left and has put in his time learning the NHL game. A smart team could end up trading rental price for a useful defender over a long period (should he sign). One team that has shown an ability to make intelligent seasons over recent months: The Montreal Canadiens.

ASTUTE MOVES

There was a time not so very long ago the Montreal Canadiens were making ghastly transactions, getting less than equal value for players like Ryan McDonagh and Mike Riberio. Since taking over as Habs’ GM in 2012, Marc Bergevin has shown himself to be a very good judge of talent and able to procure needed pieces at good prices.

Last deadline, Montreal picked up defender Mike Weaver (blue have extreme value at the deadline) for a paltry fifth-round selection. They also picked up coveted winger Thomas Vanek for the playoff run in exchange for Sebastian Collberg and a late second-round pick. Montreal also picked up goalie Devan Dubnyk for (I believe) nothing. That’s a good deadline, adding three players who may contribute during a deep run.

Montreal appears to be a team that gets it, and are a solid option for a player whose actual value likely exceeds the current market price.

WHY DO THEY NEED PETRY?

The Habs are loaded right-handed blue at the top of the depth chart, let’s not kid ourselves. They have a range of skills available in this area:

  1. P.K. Subban, who plays 25 minutes a night. 20 at evens, 3.5 on the PP and 2 on the PK. A tremendous player, I think he’s one of the most valuable young talents in the league. Paired with veteran Andrei Markov on a big minutes line that can play in all disciplines.
  2. Sergei Gonchar plays 19:29 a night including almost 17 at evens.
    That’s a lot for a man past 40 in the regular season, it might get dicey
    in the playoffs.
  3. Tom Gilbert, plays 18:21 a night and is paired most often with young Alexei Emelin but also plays/has played with Nathan Beaulieu. His even-strength possession number is in the mid-40’s and Gilbert is facing tougher zone starts but easier competition. 
  4. Mike Weaver, plays 14:28 per game and has played only 27 games this season. Concussion issues have impacted his year and like Gilbert his possession numbers at evens rank in the mid-40’s. He has faced slightly tougher zone starts but easier opposition than Gilbert.

Petry could help Montreal on the right side by bumping Gilbert down the roster or offering the team insurance against injury to Weaver or another defender. The club may also want to ease the load facing Subban at points during the next 40 games and may be worried about trusting Sergei Gonchar with significant minutes deep into the postseason.

POSSESSION STATS-CORSI

habs blue corsi

This demonstrates (in my opinion) why a smart GM like Bergevin may in fact be interested in Petry. The lag appears to be the veteran right handers and the workload for Subban is significant. There’s a story here, I believe, that could involve Petry as a solution. 

petry screen shot 3

HABS SUGGESTED PAIRINGS

  • Markov—Subban: Successful now, why mess with it?
  • Beaulieu—Petry: That’s a nice slot I think
  • Emelin/Gonchar—Gilbert/Weaver: Lots of nice depth there

I don’t know the Habs as well as I should but for me the addition of Petry gives the team plenty of options and is worth considering.

WHAT ABOUT RETURN?

A year ago, when Weaver went for a fifth, prices were down across the league. I’m not sure we can assume that will happen again, but would suggest that if we agreed a third-round pick in a deep draft year (2015) is a reasonable line in the sand, there’s no way for Edmonton to win this deal. They may also be able to pry a little extra out of Montreal if a bidding war develops and I do like young prospect Brett Lernout.

PREVIOUSLY IN THE SERIES

  • OilersDynasty

    If Petry is gone, try a sign-and-trade. If MTL is the team, I’m asking for one of Beaulieu/Tinordi or one of De La Rose/McCarron along with a second round draft pick

  • Concur

    According to Elliot Friedman the Montreal Canadiens would only be making this as a rental only because they could not afford him next year. Unless they are offloading something to Edmonton, I don’t see this as a viable option.

    • CDNinATL

      Are you not aware of the fact that Petry is a UFA come July 1??? And if you’re Jeff Petry, would you want to stay or be able to choose where you want to go?? There is no way he’s signing with us.

  • OilersDynasty

    Oy. I hope they sign Petry and trade Shultz. im my opinion it is the smart move. Shultz is a defensive liability and Petry is one of the best defenders on our team…….

  • Igor Ulanov, Russian War Horse

    We let Petry walk for nothing……….only to spend the next few years trying to find a suitable replacement?

    Stop the madness! Someone, anoyone within the Oilers management group needs to answer for this!

      • bradleypi

        No kidding. oilersnation is acting like the Oilers are losing a perennial all star…. the Oilers will be better off with him gone. Marincin could easily fill his role but I hope Mact has his eyes on someone that can actually clear the front of the net and put up points. Let me ask oilersnation, has petty ever been to an all star game?

  • Concur

    Why even bother trading Petry? Just let him finish the year out and then let him walk. Having another 3rd rnd pick with this management is just as good as having nothing anyways

        • pkam

          Even assume you’re right that Yakimov and Slepyshev will not plays 100 NHL games, how many of the 3rd round picks in 2014, especially those behind Yakimov and Slepyshev, that you believe can play over 100 NHL games? If there are none, how can the management pick something from nothing? Or you are suggesting that NHL teams shouldn’t even border with trading for 3rd round picks?

          • pkam

            Every single decision they make is terrible?

            So signing Gordon, trading MPS and a 2nd for Perron, acquiring Hendricks, signing Mark Fayne are all terrible decisions?

          • pkam

            Ya. Picking MPS was a terrible decision to begin with. That 10th overall pick and a 2nd turned into a late 1st round(years of development time later) and klinkhammer. Not a good trade off anyway you look at it. Gordon, Hendricks and Fayne are on the worst team in the league.

            Proofs in the pudding and this pudding is rotten and inedible

          • pkam

            So wasting a 1st round pick is terrible? I guess no NHL team except the Oilers has ever wasted a 1st round pick before, right? I just checked the 2009 draft and there is a guy named Scott Glennie draft 8th overall by the Stars. In 2008 Nikita Filatov was drafted 6th overall by the Senators and Kyle Beach was drafted 11th overall by the Hawks.

            You know what is really terrible? Trade a useful prospect for some garbage, like the Tuukka Rask trade, or hang on to a player that never turns out.

            Wonder what the Stars, Senators and the Hawks get for those 3 players?

          • Tikkanese

            Haha you’re such a tool. It’s not 1 bad pick or 1 bad trade or 1 bad signing. Of course every team makes mistakes. It’s the amount of bad decisions after bad decisions after constant bad decisions.

            You know what all those 3 teams you mentioned have in common? They’ve all made the playoffs numerous times in the last 8 years.

            Are you honestly trying to defend the management of the worst team of the decade and one of the worst teams to ever play in the league by proclaiming they’re all honest mistakes?

  • OilersDynasty

    The problem may be that Petry and his agent may be over pricing him to the oilers for their long term plan . We have a lot of contracts to sign in the next couple of years and he may not fit th budget.

  • Igor Ulanov, Russian War Horse

    I just hope some reporter has the guts to ask Mact the uncomfortable question about the events leading up to the Petry trade. There are reasons that trading Petry became the only choice; and those reasons are of Mact’s doing.

    • Randaman

      I would be willing to bet a large sum that the one year deal was forced on MacT by Petry and his agent. It went like this;

      “Mac, I’ve had enough of this never ending rebuild. I will be exploring free agency at the end of the year so either sign a one year deal or trade me now”

      No? Can’t blame him can you?

      • BustedSoulO

        I certainly don’t blame Petry for not wanting to take a hometown discount. But, I absolutely blame Mact/KLowe/Howsen for creating a loser environment that is easy to walk away from.

        If this team looked like Calgary, or Dallas, or Long Island? If this team hadn’t signed Nikitin? Or treated Schultz like he’s Eric Carlson? Or Brad Hunt like he’s the boss’s son? All these little things add up to an easy decision for Petry (mostly, no hope of winning).

        Methinks Petry and his agent might be more willing to take a 4mil x 5 type of deal if things weren’t such a gongshow.

  • tileguy

    Setting the bar a little low aren’t we? To suggest the best we get is a 3rd round pick sounds like Oilers propaganda stage to make MacT look like a genius if he gets a third and seventh pick. Perhaps he should be a little more creative if Montreal is the destination, say Petry and Yak for their first.

    • tileguy

      35 trashes for this, WHY?

      Is this suggestion out in left field because that is too low of a return for a late 1st round pick or

      Is it too high of a price for the Oilers to pay for a first rounder?

      I want to know why the nay sayers trash this.

  • tileguy

    This Petry mess is just another example of why MacTavish is not fit to be a GM.what would the asking price be for Jeff,if he was still under contract next year?way higher than a late 3rd round pick,that’s for sure.Craig took a very valuable asset,in a right shot D-man,and devalued it as much as he possibly could,by signing him to a one year deal.then acts like I he’s smart,and made an intelligent decision.Mr.Katz,you and your side show make it very hard to cheer for the Oilers.

    • SSB1963

      Scuttle butt is that he wouldn’t sign for more than one year at what the oilers were offering. And bear in mind there are a lot of ARM CHAIR G.M.’s that were yelling to get rid of him earlier in the season. And now all of a sudden he is golden?

    • tileguy

      Petry is -22 on the team, he’s not that good of a Dman just like Smid (he’s 3rd pairing with Flames and -12 with 1 point).

      Why sign him long term? Signed himm 1 year now the truth is out with his playing this year.

      Reasons other teams need help in Dmen because they want to make a playoff run and try to win it all.

      There will be a bidding for him soon enough, trade him for young prospect and draft pick.

      Petry is $3-4 million at best, only regret is we developed him for years and now letting him go.

      But we have many Dmen coming up so no worries.

  • 99CupsofCoffey

    Nobody seems to know for sure if Petry wants to stay or go and the team isn’t saying anything either. Nothing but speculation and conjecture but I guess that is half the fun for both media and the fans. If they can sign him then great but if not then trade him for a pick or picks and keep loading up on extra picks in this years very deep draft and carry on.

  • Mason Storm

    Whatever the Oilers get for Petry won’t be enough. He’s been under appreciated for years now. How can this team praise Gordon for playing tough minutes and totally neglect Petry? It blows my mind.

      • pkam

        Ya, I don’t know if he’s over rated or underrated. But what he is is a 4-5 dman on a good team that does nothing extremely well and nothing extremely terrible.

        He’s soft, prone to bad mistakes but can skate the puck and make decent first passes. He is what he is and it’s not bad but it’s also not good

        • pkam

          I respect what you think but I disagree. I think Petry is a 3-4 dman in more than half the NHL teams. If a team has more defense depth he may be pushed down to play 4-5 but not too many. On the other hand, there are also a few bad teams that he will be that 2-3 dman.

          You can say he is soft, but there are many NHL dman softer than him or about the same. Most posters here like Marincin and I do too, but I don’t see Marincin any tougher than Petry but the opposite, at least he is at this moment.

          I have no problem with signing Petry to right contract or trading Petry for the right return.

          If Petry wants north of 5M, I’ll trade him. What is the reasonable return for a solid 2nd pairing D, I don’t know for sure as it varies from year to year. On a good year for the seller you may get a late 1st rounder, or a 3rd rounder in a bad year. I think a mid to late 2nd rounder is very reasonable.

          • pkam

            Ya that’s fair. I think the problem with getting a good return for him is that he’s a rental. So, it’ll be playoff teams being the buyers and I think most playoff teams already have their 3-4 dman or else they wouldn’t be a playoff team.

            I think a team will be looking at him as a depth/injury insurance and I don’t think they give up a whole lot for that.

            Either way, whether they get a 2nd or a 3rd it’s not gonna help the oilers

    • Mason Storm

      Agreed except trading Petry away for a draft pick could also mean picking up a McEichel Magic bean. This team will tank a lot better with Petry gone. I have a feeling it’s part of the plan.

  • Randaman

    I think we are all aware that Petry , as a rentl player would appeal to a play off team. In reasonable playoff team , at best Petry is 3-4 player.

    A 3-4 Rental will fetch you a 3rd. rounder,unless MacT can smell a desperate team
    hold out for a 2 nd rounder. There is a premium on Petry as a rental, as he is a right hander.

    If you are shooting for a 2 nd rd. in return, maybe throw in a Musil in the deal.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    Plenty more of the Oilers just being the Oilers. Petry is far from the last. I count 7 players here this season will be by choice elsewhere next season. Only guy I see re-signing is Fraser.

    Yet another serviceable NHL player counting the minutes till he’s finally free from the Edmonton ball and chain. That losing culture begins and ends with management.

    Best of luck Jeff Petry.

  • Let me play G.M. for a moment. This should be fun…..
    1) Re-sign Petry.
    2) Go out and SIGN Johnny Boychuk! Offer him 5/6 year deal for 5 plus million per.
    3) Swallow your pride and buy out N. Nikitin
    4) D.Nurse should be ready next year, place him a veteran player like Fayne..
    5) Klefbom will be a year older…
    6) Problems: Shultz and Ference.
    —–
    1) Boychuk-Petry
    2) Klefbom- ???
    3) Nurse-Fayne
    Will Marincin be ready?
    —–
    I don’t know, but a Boychuk-Petry pairing would be pretty nice…

  • paul wodehouse

    You can coach an AHL team to play in NHL.

    The players are humans like other NHL teams right?

    Oilers can coach any players to play competitive hockey. Many good Dmen with Barons we can bring up.

    Russians can teach bears to skate and play hockey, yes that’s right, I saw it in Red Army documentary. Fetisov was the main character in Red Army out in theaters soon. Watch it, if only these young Oilers skate and play like them.

    The Communists locked the players up for 11 months to train and play as a team in a facility, crazy but true.

  • paul wodehouse

    ….chriky buff’s got 2 ( last I looked ) less points than this oiler squad for the basement…without #2 sabres could make up some ground to leave this oiler bunch in the muck of the bottom…thinkin’ June Draft…

  • billythebullet

    Destination Petry – Edmonton Oilers.

    This is what MacT needs to be doing. I do agree with lots of posters saying Petry isn’t a 1st pairing dman on most playoff teams. But he is our BEST defender meaning we will be worse off without him. And if our goal truly is to get better, then trading serviceable right handed defence for picks is a bad idea. As it is Oilers have 2 decent/average defence in fayne and Petry, 3 solid prospects in Nurse, Klefbom and MM. A couple of leftovers in Ferance and Nikitin, and a complete bust in jultz. This list does not indicate to me any justifiable reason to trade Petry. JMO.

  • Igor Ulanov, Russian War Horse

    Not for nothing, but I am pretty sure Gonchar is a left handed shot. None the less, imagine how good the Oil could be if they had some of those bottom 7-10 dmen that the Habs have…

    More of the same from our team, trading NHL talent for pennies on the dollar, hoping for that diamond in the rough. Smart business model

  • toprightcorner

    Maybe we can pry that Gilbert fellow out of Montreal. He looks fairly solid.

    I like Petry and don’t want to lose him at this point in his career (i.e. peak) – especially after all the effort spent on his development. But what terrifies me even more is my lack of confidence that MacT can adequately fill the spot. It isn’t the loss of Petry per se – it is the hole it creates. And this isn’t necessarily a complete indictment of MacT. The NHL is a tough league to make good GM moves. There must be hundreds of calls made every day yet very little actually happens. And when it does, there is generally a back story. Few real hockey trades since the salary cap.

  • CDNinATL

    LT, Gonchar appears to have been playing the right side in Montreal but he’s actually a left hand shot, not a rightie as you say above. Might change your equation a little. The biggest reason Montreal signed Gilbert this off season is because in last year’s playoffs they were using Markov-Emelin as their shut down pairing, and Emelin was seriously exposed playing his off side. My impression is that they haven’t been wild about Gilbert so far so maybe there is a fit there. The Oilers might have to take Gilbert off their hands to make it work though.

  • Joy S. Lee

    I like what Tinordi is going to develop into, he’s young but with some experience, and we could use him as a shutdown D with size. If I were MacT, I might take Tinordi and a 2nd in return.

    • SSB1963

      Haha the oilers traded a developed Tinordi to calgary. His name was Smid.

      Also you’re not getting a 2nd for petry let alone getting Tinordi Aswell. Talk about unrealistic expectations