Don’t trade Hendricks or Gordon

    • bazmagoo

      We lost McDavid the second Eakins was fired. Dallas was a moron, an inept coach who was all talk and no game. That was obvious to a lot of us 20 games into last season. Coaching is a major factor in the NHL.

      Completely agree with Gregor. Only in Edmonton would a 23 year old prospect who was rushed into the NHL due to managerial incompetence be considered a potential bust. Anton possesses high end leadership skills and a solid defensive acumen, he could be a legitimate 3rd line center in a year or two.

      Trading Gordon or Hendricks would be pure lunacy. If MacT does he should be fired immediately.

  • Matt the Economist

    Trade Hendricks and Gordon!! Not sure what his name is, but there’s gonna be a really good prospect at the top of the draft that we can tank for next year!!!

  • Matt the Economist

    I am not down with tanking or draft picks for solid nhlers and our current management/ownership but this Mcdavid kid is getting more attention than Crosby at that age. Dilemma indeed…

    • bradleypi

      Why is it that everyone on this site, including the bloggers, just automatically assume that if the Oilers aquire another 1st round pick that they are guaranteed going to draft a player with it??? Once the Oilers trade for a pick, they can then turn around and trade it plus a player or another pick for a better player FYI. If someone offers a 1st round pick for Hendy or Gordon, you take it every day. It’s not like the team is winning with those guys anyway….

  • Matt the Economist

    Great piece. If anything the team should think about going the other way and get rid of one more young gun in the core, and replace him with a legit vet.

    Even given the fact guys like Nuge, Hall, and Ebs have a bit of experience at the NHL level now, the team is very soon going to have an incredibly green blue starting next year. Schultz, Nurse, Klefbom, and maybe even Marincin. That is not the type of blue that will be competitive.

  • Matt the Economist

    Totally agree Gregor. If the team is moving away from a lose mentality and trying to get better then we as fans should join with. The more improvements this team makes, the better. I will only trade these two if they are being replaced by better players.

  • tileguy

    JG wrote “He is also the vocal leader in the room. He has challenged the young players to take hold of the team and become a leader. He’s done it in a positive way, but the Oilers don’t have many vocal leaders and his value is more than just his solid play on the ice.”

    Nice if it’s true, but have you any real (anecdotal) evidence that backs that statement up. I would love to know why you think he is a leader in the dressing room.

    • Jason Gregor

      Every player is on record as stating he is the vocal leader. He also was on my show and he said, “It is time one of our young guys takes over the team. This has to become their team.”

      This is not new. Players said he added a lot of energy the minute he came in the room.

      • Burnward

        I’ve gathered that you are not a huge proponent of the analytical community Gregor, but I’m not sure predicting that a player’s ability will drop in their mid-thirties is using advanced stats so much as knowledge of how humans work…

        I agree that I would like to see Hendricks in oiler silks next year but it should be acknowledged that every year you hold on to a contract of a player in his thirties you are taking a big risk in seeing his ability-dollar ratio plummet. And no, it does not happen “magically”, but as a result if a natural aging process. A person slows down and their joints experience wear and tear regardless of how many nhl years they have.

        As much as myself and oiler fans love Hendricks, the guy is a beast, if the RIGHT offer comes along, you have to take it I’d say. MAYBE Hendricks is one of those guys who can play forever and still be effective, but those dudes are pretty rare. Odds are Hendricks won’t be a part of an oiler playoff push (because he’ll be 60, get it?! Hur Hur Hur), so it comes down to asset management. We can try and move whatever young prospect or pick we get in return for an established veteran in his late 20s later, but right now we have to ask the tough question, is two years of Matt Hendricks, admittedly admirable but likely to decline, fourth line work worth more than whatever assets we can get for him now? Depends on what the return is, if you ask me. Then again people rarely do, haha.

        • Jason Gregor

          So you want to trade Hendricks because he might decline and get a mid round pick in return that history shows has a very low % of actually playing in the NHL?

          How is that a smart decision? Hendricks might slow down, but I doubt his game drops off next year and in the final year of his deal the team can play him 10 minutes instead of 12 if need be.

          What is the right offer? I always hear this phrase and it means nothing. It is usually an offer that would never occur. Look at trade history and return on Hendricks is at best a 2nd round pick or a more likely a 3rd.

          Trading him for that makes the Oilers worse.

          • Jason Gregor

            Couldn’t agree more.

            They also better be trading that Pitts first round pick for NHL players. I’d trade the oilers 1st to if it isn’t one of the first 2

            Stop being a terrible team and get NHL players

          • Burnward

            Hi Gregor, appreciate the response.

            I agree with your assessment that the oilers would be worse without Hendricks but my argument is that for the right deal (I’m not great at predicting trade returns but maybe a 2nd or 3rd and/or a young player in the AHL with a decent shot of making the show), yes, is still a smart move from an asset management perspective.

            Your point that there is a low percentage chance of picks or prospects panning out is fair. I just think you understate the risk of his ability plummeting. In the modern era, by the age of 34, 84% of nhl players have already retired. Even if you try and adjust for players who’s career flamed out early, screwing the results, (say before they hit free agency) you still get 76.8% of players being out of the game by the time they get to their mid 30s. That’s not even taking Hendricks’ coveted hard-hitting style into account.

            Either way you’re taking a risk, and I could probably be persuaded that draft picks or prospects are a bigger risk than 2 more years of Hendricks at 1.85 million. But a draft pick in 2015 and especially 2016 will probably retain value longer (because it will be an unknown value for at least a while) and can be traded again as a package for established talent or maybe even used to draft a legitimate player (you know what they say about blind squirrels).

            I guess what it comes down to is while I value Hendricks leadership skills and passion, I don’t know if two more years of it, at 1.85 million, with significant risk of decline in his actual abilities, on a team that will not be making deep playoff runs during that time, is worth more than a 2nd round pick, or maybe a late round and a prospect. Of course I don’t see them getting that kind of offer for Hendricks so the question is probably moot.

        • Jason Gregor

          Brett, or whatever name, I didn’t edit it. Editor did and I back him, since I didn’t see post. That poster makes snide remarks all the time, and writing “Try to keep up” was a simple little jab. If he can dish it out be able to handle it. That was far from anything personal or rude and the fact is Hendrick’s leadership has been discussed openly for months.

  • sportsjunkie007

    Step 1. Trade NHL player for draft pick.

    Step 2. Draft 18 year old, hoping that one day they get good enough to make it to the NHL.

    Step 3. Wait patiently, hoping that drafted player doesn’t elect to quit playing hockey, get a career ending injury, fail to develop as hoped, get hit by a falling piano when crossing a street, etc.

    If the Oilers are VERY lucky, after 5 years or so they MIGHT have a player who is ALMOST as good as the player that they traded away.

    Why keep players like Hendricks and Gordon when there’s such a foolproof plan in place?

  • tileguy

    Just because a guy doesn’t have many NHL miles on him doesn’t mean he doesn’t suffer from similar wear and tear.

    He’s got almost 700 pro games under his belt and this really is the age guys start to decline.

    Eric Belanger had a great year before coming to Edmonton and his game completely fell apart.

    This is not to say it’s going to happen to Hendricks, but history suggests there’s a good chance.

  • tileguy

    I don’t put Gordon and Hendricks in the same category.

    Gordon is a better player, plays a more important role, is younger, and tougher to replace.

    Keep Gordon, move Hendricks, IMO, although you can make an argument for moving Gordon as well if the right opportunity arises, IMO.

  • sportsjunkie007

    So… you’re saying the Oilers will definitely trade Gordon and Hendricks?

    BTW, thanks for reminding us that the Flames drafted Marc Jankowski in the first round. That’s alwas a good laugh.

    • tileguy

      We have our own embarrasing first rounders – Jason Bonsignore drafted 4th in the first round! Flames can at lest say Jankowski is still developing for at least 2 more years 🙂 but Bonsignore OUCH!

  • tileguy

    Really good ending there…not sure why everyone else that writes on here is so aghast at Marancin not playing for the big club. Is there any reason contract/Asset Mngmt. wise to have him playing with the Oilers?

    Oh whaddya know. Old Six Rings comes out of his cave to wax poetic with Bob Stuffer. Hard hitting journalism there. What a company baggage handler.

  • Rod the Viking

    These two guys and Andrew Ference were brought in to provide leadership and show the young guys what it means to be a pro, it finally looks like their has been some buy in as of late. Boyd Gordon will still be valuable at next years trade deadline.
    Keep these guys and trade one of the wingers and a pick this summer for a top six forward or top 3 defenseman with the same intangibles.

  • bradleypi

    The reason you trade them is asset management. I would only trade one of them ans not both. I can’t see them staying at this level for their next contracts and they will have real value possibly now. Their contracts are on the high side for what they do.
    That is only contigent on getting something of value back for these players. Not just draft picks but prospects or a roster player too.

  • mesa

    what got us in this mess in the first place is trading away proving vets for magic beans and draft picks starting in 2009. history should prove to the oilers that you can not win with need leadership and hard work.

  • TheBirdOfAnger

    I think Hendricks is a leader in the dressing room. He certainly looks like one on the ice. When was the last time we saw Gordon in a fight? They both have important roles. Keep them. For the love of God, KEEP THEM.

  • ubermiguel

    Once again I have to mention how hard MacT worked to land Hendricks. Very doubtful he’s going anywhere.

    The youth movement didn’t work. Even the old Oilers had their share of guys like Fogilin and Low. I wonder if they forgot about that when guys like Moreau and Horcoff were moved out.

  • tileguy

    Add Colonel Klink to that duo and let’s make it a threesome!

    Mac T do not trade MH, BG, or Klinkhammer……..we finally have a third/fourth line that is making a difference, so please leave these two lines alone.

    Also, I like how Roy, Purcell, and Puliot are playing, leave them alone as well.

    Just go get us a goaltender like Dubby ……..Okay?

        • Zarny

          It’s not the trade or the return that bothers me about the Dubnyk trade, it’s the due process.

          Trade Dubby…get 2 backup goalies to shoulder a larger than heavy load due to porous defence that remains unaddressed…fire goalie coach…hire a new goalie coach that is inexperienced and has no experience at the NHL level…fire the head coach DEakins!

          Why was a new goalie coach not decided upon earlier?
          Why not fire the goalie coach and try a new coach with Dubnyk before getting rid of the player?
          Better yet, why not fire the head coach AND goalie coach at the same time since the team was losing anyway, bring in new voices and try them with the players before giving up on them?

          This organization’s management group has no idea how other teams are able to be successful because they keep re-inventing the wheel thinking they have a better wheel. Guess what??? Wheel’s broken fellas!!!

          Now who’s turn is it to get fired?? And why is Nikitin still occupying a roster spot instead of developing someone in that role? Is this MacT being stubborn and failing to admit he made a bad move again? Honestly, who sees Nikitin as part of the team in a few years, why is playing him so important at this point, especially when he can’t stay healthy?

          • Harry2

            I agree, Nilotic should not be playing but they are paying him 4 mill so you can’t sit him I guess. In a perfect world you would sit him and let a young guy play and learn the game for next year. Get a head start for next season.

            I wish the organization would treat the rest of this year as an extended training camp for next year.

    • BobbyCanuck

      Agreed, except the Dubby part!

      Soooo, what does that leave us to trade? The golden core, I know you did not write that, but I shall infer…great idea

      We may be able to get actual NHL players, if we were only willing to trade actual NHL players.

      I do not buy that we are winning our way out of the lotto, pretty simple really.

      If we have the lead with 5 minutes left in the game, all our coach has to do is double shift Schultz, Eberle, Nikki, and Yak, may be even Hall, he just doesn’t seem to care any more. I promise we will gas every game.

      All of the above could become serviceable to great players, just not on this team, with the current mix.

      • Randaman

        More “tounge in cheek”, when referring to getting a goaltender like Dubby.

        Trading for draft picks is now the new modus operandi……..for most teams in the NHL. I just don’t like the idea of starting all over again for the next season.

        Note to Mac T …….just fix what needs fixing. Start with a legit second line centre ( Roy is fine, just sign him), top two defence man ( Petry is fine, just sign him long-term if you have the courage) and a real goaltender.

        Let players compete for jobs and if they don’t make it let them develop in the minors. Open up spots in the minors and only play guys if they are in our long term plans……..get rid of all the overage suspects on the farm!

        It’s simple for the most part.

  • bwar

    Respect for ourselves and the team is more important that a high draft pick. dont trade 2 of the better players on our team for the gamble of a draft pick panning out in the future. we need to improve today not in a few years. and MH and BG improve us today

  • bwar

    If you’re getting a first in this years draft I would trade Gordon or Hendricks. If you’re getting a late second I wouldn’t. I love Hendricks but if someone is willing to give you a first round pick for a fourth line guy in his 30’s you do it.

  • tileguy

    @Jason Gregor

    I enjoyed and agreed with much of the article but can people please stop using phrases such as “many analytics guys”. What does that even mean? You mean hockey fans? I don’t think any of the ‘analytics guys’ have ever said it is impossible for a player such as Hendricks to continue to play well. The argument is that it is extremely likely for Hendricks play to decline based on his age compared to previous players of the same age.

    • Jason Gregor

      Can you show me the players who have declined from 33 to 34 who were similar players to Hendricks

      I’d be curious to see who they are.

      And many wrote about it, guys like Dellow and Willis to name a few. Analytics guys are people who write about it in my books. They do the research and put their name behind it. I respect that.

  • Tikkanese

    I said it before in one of the 5 other articles about trading Hendricks or Gordon. You don’t trade either unless it’s at least a 1st coming back.

    The odds of a round 2 or later playing the same amount of NHL GP in their careers to what Gordon or Hendricks will give you before the end of their contracts is something like 25%.

    Not worth it.

  • WTF2

    Well we have confirmed you’re stunned. Now let’s think about what Randy can get for these two veterans rather than refusing to answer the phone.

    On second thought, given the lousy scouting and player development record the Oil are well known for, your plea to hold onto Gordon and Hendricks may have some merit after all.

  • WTF2

    Mat The economist:

    Strome With Mcdavid 13gm 2.62 PPG

    Strome Without Mcdavid 33Gm 1.61 PPG

    both plyaers experienced 1PPG reduction when seperated.

    Could we have a Marner-Dvork score affect.

  • Zarny

    I absolutely agree you don’t trade Boyd Gordon. I think he is the team’s MVP this year. And regardless of who the Oilers draft they need him next year in a big way.

    I’m not quite as bullish on Matt Hendricks as Mr. Gregor. I don’t think he will magically slow down next season, but I think there is a legitimate concern he will naturally slow down.

    34 y/o is 34 y/o. Most players see a drop in performance in their mid-30s. For some it’s @ 32 and others not till 38; but in a league where skating seems to get faster by the game I think it’s a genuine concern.

    In general though I agree with the gist of the article. The time to trade proven NHL players for draft picks is over for the Oilers. If anything, it’s time to trade picks and prospects for proven NHL players.

  • Randaman

    With Gordon and Hendricks we are a 29th place team in a 30 team league. That plan is not working!

    Gordon is a UFA in 2017.

    If we trade him this year he is work a first round pick….

    If we trade him next year (because is not re-signing here) he worth a third round pick …

  • Randaman

    It sounds like a lot of people here need to keep up.

    Hendricks talks to guys on the bench, even had a shouting match with Nelson. Its been stated several times the past two seasons in newspaper articles and blogs that he is vocal in the room.

    Act stupid, expect to be treaed stupid.

  • Jason Gregor

    Maybe people missed it and maybe people missed the ramifications that this article had some open praise for mgt: “He is a perfect example of why there is nothing wrong with playing Martin Marincin in OKC this season” there are a few players now that are actually developing down in the minors. We might not all the timing or how they got there, but the Oilers are actually now starting to do it…