What should Peter Chiarelli do with Nikita Nikitin?

86-Nikitin-6

Nikita Nikitin was a veteran defenceman brought in last summer to act as a bridge player, taking on tough minutes while the Edmonton Oilers’ young blue line prospects rounded into form.

His first year was a debacle, featuring injuries, questions about conditioning and plenty of poor play. Under Craig MacTavish, the Oilers appeared set to give him a do-over. Will new G.M. Peter Chiarelli feel the same way?

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

The Options

Peter Chiarelli

Because Nikitin is under contract, Edmonton has only three options:

  • Keep him for the final year of his deal.
  • Trade him to another team, possibly retaining salary in the process.
  • Buy him out of the last season of his contract.

Before making a decision, the team will want to have a firm read on Nikitin’s value. The defenceman plays in all situations; how has he fared over his NHL career?

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Nikitin’s Value

86-Nikitin-2

The first item to get out of the way is the power play. Nikitin ended up a power play quarterback in Edmonton essentially because the team had extremely limited options and he has a cannon from the point. There’s little evidence to suggest he’s any good at the discipline; of the 118 NHL defencemen to have played at least 250 minutes on the power play since 2010-11 Nikitin ranks 101st in points per hour (2.67). He’s in the range of a Trevor Daley or Jason Demers; serviceable if there aren’t other options but not a guy who plays minutes on a team with legitimate weapons.

Next is the penalty kill. There is some evidence to suggest that Nikitin has value here. Of the 165 defencemen to play at least 250 minutes shorthanded since 2010, Nikitin ranks 10th overall in unblocked shot attempts/hour. To put that in context, the defencemen we’re looking at might be on the ice for anything from 60 to 90 unblocked shot attempts per hour while shorthanded; with Nikitin on the ice the number is just 64, despite the fact that he’s played for largely middling penalty kills. The picture isn’t quite so rosy in terms of goals against, but even there Nikitin is firmly in the middle of the pack among NHL defencemen. He was above average in both categories this season in Edmonton; this is a role he’s useful in.

That leaves the biggest category, even-strength.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

First, the good points. Nikitin is a pretty good point producer historically; he has scored 0.74 points/hour at evens over his career, which is the same rate as players like Ryan Suter and Andrei Markov. He’s big (6’4”, 217 pounds), and though not overly physical he’s effective as a crease-clearer.

However, he has his issues as well. He has a nasty tendency toward glaringly ugly gaffes – giving the puck away or blowing a tire at the worst possible moment. He has somewhat limited mobility and tends to play a conservative game as a result, at times backing off the blue line rather than forcing the issue there. Those issues also mean that when he gets beat he often has trouble recovering; he looks like a pylon more than most defenceman because he gets caught out of the play.

His numbers were better than I expected, however. His on-ice shot totals were below the team average, in large part due to a disastrous stint with Justin Schultz, and against that we have to weigh relatively soft zone starts and middling quality of competition; in the aggregate it’s not good but it’s also not the tire fire I was expecting. Then I looked at David Staples’ individual contributions to scoring chances count and found something interesting – in terms of plus/minus, Staples has Nikitin as above average, but it’s because of his work on the offensive side of the game. Defensively, no regular defenceman made more mistakes/minute on scoring chances against.

In a bad year, Nikitin’s legitimate contributions on the offensive side of the puck were probably underrated because he was so bad defensively. On balance, I’d be comfortable with him as a third-pairing defenceman at even-strength and a regular penalty killer.

Nikitin’s Value and the Oilers’ Options

86-Nikitin-3

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

The big problem with Nikitin is that if he’s a third-pairing even-strength defenceman/top-unit penalty-killer he should be carrying a modest salary. Instead, he makes $4.5 million per season. What should the Oilers do?

There’s an argument to keep him, to burn through the final year of his contract and just get it over with. In this scenario he might even be moveable at the trade deadline; teams are always looking for depth pieces come late February and if the Oilers retained salary they might fetch a low-end draft pick. Alternatively, Edmonton could buy him out, freeing up $3.0 million in cap space this year but taking up $1.5 million in cap space next season.

The question really comes down to how close the Oilers are going to be to the salary cap. Assuming that Edmonton can replace those minutes with a $1.5 million free agent, that $3.0 million in cap space the team is saving shrinks down to $1.5 million. If Chiarelli plans to spend that close to the cap, he should absolutely dump Nikitin to make it happen. If he doesn’t, it’s probably worth putting up with Nikitin for 50 more games, adding a low draft pick and wiping the bad contract from the books in one year instead of two.

RECENTLY BY JONATHAN WILLIS



  • The article makes me want to vomit. All the good news we got this past 10 days and you have to bring us back to reality reminding us of that we still have Nikita Nikitan under contract at 4.5 million.

    My cornflakes have officially been pissed in today by this article.
    Where is the Hot Tub time machine when we need it?
    If its me I flush this contract like yesterdays chili. It gives me gas just thinking about it.
    I believe you have to remove the stain of this contract from the team and from the psyche of the Oilers fans. Its just such a toxic relationship and really the underlying numbers cannot justify the 4.5 contract.
    Its time to cut bait and let this moment fade into Oilers history.

  • crackerjack14

    In regards to where Nikitin should be next year, I believe Marvin Gaye sang it best….

    Ain’t no mountain high enough,
    Ain’t no valley low enough
    Ain’t no river wide enough

    Buy out or bust.

  • Rob...

    The GM needs to send someone, other than MacT, to meet with Nikitin sometime in the next several weeks. Find out if he’s pickling his liver with vodka, or if he’s in the gym and further rehabbing from injuries.

    If the guy truly shows signs that he’s as embarrassed by last season as he should be, then give him a shot at earning his spot on the roster next season. The thing that truly sucks about Nikitin is that, just like Schultz, there were games where he showed at least ‘average d-man’ potential. I’m not saying they were frequent; he peaked for less than 5 games this season.

  • Quicksilver ballet

    Thanks for clearing up the AHL non option guys. They sure closed that loophole.

    Just more evidence MacTavish was unqualified from the beginning.

  • CMG30

    We need to think about 2016/17 and that’s when we’re really going to need the cap room, especially with the cap potentially falling.

    I’m loath to use the term ‘developmental’ so I’ll just say that next year is going to be a corrective season. This means to say that Edmonton needs to use this season to point this organization in the right direction. We know that playoffs are a tall order but they need to start the process of building a winner. Edmonton needs to use this season to set themselves up for success.

    Basically, I would argue that the Oilers should just hold their nose and let Nikitin play out the string way down the roster, maybe even a healthy scratch most nights. Who knows, maybe the incentive of a contract year might motivate Nikitin to up his game… In any event, try to move him at the deadline for a bag of pucks to a team out of options to plug a hole on their back end.

  • Simmerdown

    What I’d like to see. If he shows up to training camp in anything less than the best shape of his life, ready to buy-in and play the role he’s asked, dump his ass to the AHL. Send the message “you buy-in or get lost”. However, I know that this is not realistic. Given that I don’t expect them to make the playoffs next year, use him at his talent level and hope he plays well enough to get something in return at the trade deadline.

  • Kenny The Rat

    Besides puck possession, puck retrival, puck moving, hitting, shooting, and of course scoring, this guy is a good defenceman.

    He has Norris potential ……….on the planet “Stink”!

  • S cottV

    We need at least one and likely two new players on defense. NN is not long for the Oil when that happens unless they don’t keep Jultz and don’t move up Nurse. My guess is they will need the cap space with the new defense.

    How many more sleeps till the puck drops…… It is going to be a really interesting summer.

  • A good assessment JW. A lot depends on Chiarelli’s assessment of whether we can acquire enough quality D men over the summer to enable the team to buy out Nikitin and where we stand against the cap. I suspect it is likely best to add what we can to the blue line, hold our noses and pay Nikitin’s final year. Along with finding a legit Number One Goalie, fixing the blue line is or top priority to make this team competitive.

  • Ar_C

    Small steps first Chia. Remove Niki from the equation,get a number 1 goalie,then you got 10 more wins . Add McDavid and the offensive depth he gives us,that’s another 5 wins

  • Oilfaninvan

    Respectfully, I can’t think of a single reason to keep him on this club. He hobbles around on the ice and adds nothing to this team. If you really want to address the blue line on this team, it’s definitely addition by subtraction in this case.

  • Oil4Brains

    Same thing with Schultz, if he can upgrade the position for less money than it would cost the team in cap, get rid of him. Given his high salary, that shouldn’t be too tough. By him out, don’t qualify Schultz, and the team now has 6.675mill to spend on some defence in addition to the bit of room they already had.

    I would see if they could get Francois for 3 years at 3.5 mill and Franson for 2 years at around 3 mill. Franson devalued him self a bit this year. And Francois is 34 so I’m not sure if there’s a team that will pay him big money to finish out his years anywhere.

    According to NHL numbers, which I’m not sure if I’m reading right – I miss Cap geek – The oilers have about 4 mill in room right now. But that doesn’t take Fasth, Petry, Perron, Arco, Acton, and Joensuu off the books. So if I’m readin it right, the Oilers should still have a lot of room left. If I’m reading it wrong, they are screwed.

    Can someone smarter than me confirm this?

    If the former then maybe they can grab an Erhoff or Sekera to fill out the right side D, resign Fraser, resign Pitlick, get a goalie, and either Roy or Sodeburg.

    I also wonder if Chirelli would think about reaching out to Petry? 4 mill for a few years to bring Petry back would be pretty great.

    • Oilergasm

      From what i can tell the Oilers have $52,076,000.00 committed to next years cap. 12 Forwards(Hall, RNH, Eberle, Purcell, Pouliot, Yakupov,Gordon, Hendricks, Gazdic, Pakarinen, Klinkhammer and Lander) 4 Defence (Nikitin, Fayne, Ference and Klefbom) and 1 Goalie (Scrivens). Last years cap was $64.3M

      Assume the cap stays the same they would have $12.2M available to round out the roster, 1 F (McDavid, he will get the max rookie deal at about $3.75M), 3 D and 1 G. Leaving about $8.45M to fill 4 roster spots. Fraser, Schultz, Marincin and Aulie are all RFA’s and Roy a UFA.

      They could sign their RFA’s with cap room left, and assuming they replace Roy’s spot with McDavid, they will stay under the cap… but nowhere near a good enough roster.

  • A-Mc

    Nikitin might be terrible but he’s an NHL defenseman. I wouldnt buy him out because that creates a hole. I dont see how you can trade him for an actual player, so that’s probably not in the cards. If i didnt need the cap space to sign a better option, i would just wait out his final year and trade him for a 4th round pick at the deadline.

    There is an off chance he regains some of his legitimacy next season. If i dont need the cap space, i’ll spend a rich mans money for a chance to see if that happens.

  • knee deep in it

    Best case is to try to find a trade even if we have to eat 50%. We are not a cap team this year but may be next year.

    If we buy him out, we have a cap penalty that extends into next year.

  • This season would probably benefit from a buyout. The problem is that you have 1.5 in dead money next year as well. I think the best thing to do would be to trade him with a salary retention, if not this summer, then during the season.

    My understanding is that the buyout period ends on June 30th. That gives us a chance to acquire veteran players at the draft, so we’ll know whether we need to make cap space for free agents. If we, by some miracle, acquire Seabrook and a Chicago forward, we’ll need to make space.

    We have about 17 million in space right now, and we can expect McDavid to consume his entire 3.75, so we really have about 13 million to work with.

  • Craig1981

    I think it all comes down to what the salary cap does. If it stays the same or maybe even shrinks, clearing space for a bargin trade makes a lot of sense. Buy him out

    If it goes up, the cost now, keep the space for 2016-17 when it will be of more value. Plus IF Nikitin decides to show up in shape because he is a UFA he might have trade value if teams have cap room.

    Remember the players do invoke the 5% cap climb it means the cap will go up less the following year.

  • Dwayne Roloson 35

    JW,

    I thought for guys under 35 the buyout was 1/3rd the remaining value over twice the remaining years, meaning Nikitins buyout would only be 750k for the next two years. Am I just dreaming?

  • S cottV

    I am sure PC will meet with him, to see where his head is at.

    Is he hungry for a new contract?

    How does he feel about the changes in the organization, where for the first time – perhaps he sees light at the end of the Oiler tunnel?

    No question – over rated and I sure as hell wish that Petry was still around, but – maybe best to see what he’s got if the head is right.

    Oiler culture – in particular when Eakins was around, is about as hard on d men, as it is on goaltenders. Dubnyk lost his mind, Smid couldn’t handle it, Belov got as far away as possible, Petry either said something or just lost faith and maybe Nikitin just hasn’t taken the gong show seriously.