WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T DRAFT A GOALIE AT NO. 16

Goalies are voodoo and drafting them in the first round requires the balls of a pirate and an addled mind. Even teams that know what they’re doing rarely take goalies in the first round. A team like Edmonton? It would be a colossal waste of a perfectly good draft pick.

The Edmonton Oilers don’t do a good job drafting goalies. Since Andy Moog and Grant Fuhr were taken in the first three drafts in team history, it’s been a hard road. There is a highly ranked goalie this year and Edmonton has a pick in the range.

SHOULD OIL USE NO. 16 ON A GOALIE?

  • No. 19 ranked (Bob McKenzie list) Ilya Samsonov. Russian that Craig Button compares to Andrei Vasilevskiy.  Source

Answer: No. The Oilers should either trade that pick for a quality veteran blue or use it on a prospect who can be part of the McDavid cluster. Candidates include Jeremy Roy, Timo Meier and Evgeni Svechnikov. The Russian goalie has signed a KHL contract and that position develops slowly. Edmonton’s current need should not dictate this draft in any way. It’s a loser’s bet to take a goalie at 16 simply because goalie is an issue for the major league team today. Put simply, even if you take Samsonov, goalie will be an issue at the NHL level for years to come.

SHOULD OIL TRADE NO. 16 FOR  VET G?

No. I don’t think the Oilers would entertain a straight up No. 16 for Talbot, but if the deal were expanded and possibly included JT Miller* it’s something worth talking about in my opinion. That said, I wouldn’t deal No. 16, but rather try to figure out a way to use a second-round selection to make it happen.

I’ll go you one better: I think it might make sense to offer No. 57 AND a pick next season (not the first rounder) instead of the pick at No. 16. Why? The Penguins pick this year has extreme value—top 10 overall in a normal draft year—and Talbot isn’t an established NHL goalie. Cory Schneider was dealt for a top 10 pick but he was more established and had a better contract.

Talbot’s acquisition is a sticky wicket. He’s signed to a one-year deal and is UFA next summer. Edmonton COULD be trading for a one year solution and they can’t negotiate a new deal until January 2016.

It’s not a good solution as a stand alone acquisition.

WHAT SHOULD THEY DO?

Peter Chiarelli needs to (and will) read the market. Edmonton’s priorities are goaltending and defense, but the goalie is actually less expensive. Why? Supply and demand. There are many possible goaltending solutions that would cost far less than No. 16 overall, and that valuable selection may be key to grabbing a top 4D.

I think Murray Pam’s tweet is interesting and may suggest a larger deal that could involve a defenseman or JT Miller—who is absolutely a player who would fit Chiarelli’s ‘strong on the puck’ mantra. This is an interesting rumor that possibly has legs. We won’t know for a few days but it’s worth paying attention to from an Oilers pov. 

*I’m also not suggesting No. 16 is enough for Talbot and Miller. It’s an idea not a trade proposal.

  • Zarny

    If Chiarelli’s using Damien Cox’s list then this summer really isn’t worth getting as excited about as its seemed. Still hoping to hear that pick is moved in a deal for a defenceman. If they trade it for a goalie, they better be offer sheeting Hamilton. Kick open that window already!

  • a lg dubl dubl

    “Answer: No. The Oilers should either trade that pick for a quality veteran blue or use it on a prospect who can be part of the McDavid cluster. Candidates include Jeremy Roy, Timo Meier and Evgeni Svechnikov. The Russian goalie has signed a KHL contract and that position develops slowly.”

    Defenceman don’t become effective that much more quickly than goalies. If we assume defenders take 4 to 5 years and goalies take 4 to 6 years, there isn’t a big difference in drafting a goalie or defender. Also, when projecting that far out even a Talbot or Lack would be entering decline about the time Samsonov would be accending .

    That said, in would take a goalie at 33, not sixteen. Sixteen should be traded for a real NHL player, unless Nurse or Draisaitl has been traded, in which case you draft thier replacement at 16.

  • Zarny

    The only G (who might be available) I’d spend the 16th on is Gibson. The rest aren’t worth more than the 57th.

    I don’t think I’d use the 16th on Samsanov but if he slides to 33 I’d take him.

  • Jordan McNugent-Hallkins

    I think the convo for Arizona’s pick does start with Hall or Nuge. They’ve got OEM for a stud D man, they need young offense. They could pick up a future 1C in Strome with the 3rd pick this year, so it would have to be a first line player going the other way who can step in and help, but is still young enough to grow with the team. That said, Hall and Nuge are untouchables to me right now, so I wouldn’t do the deal if it involved either one.

  • Mooseroni

    Lots of talk on goalies…was scrivs not worth any look this year at all? Seemed to me he wasn’t horrible in the later half under nelson…and never really had great support…focus on d then see where your at. I foresee everyone getting excited about any goalie we sign then throwing him under the bus midway through next season

  • paul wodehouse

    …I propped mooseroni because when you look at this squad and it’s few deficiencies albeit glaringly large ones Devon Dubnyk > a Vezina Finalist comes to mind … did he finally find defense pairings that protected him well enough so he could settle down and be a starter? Point is put DD back in the Oiler net with what’s in front of him on the blue and he turns into a pumpkin again … GET Dmen Peter Chiarelli…GOOD Dmen first and foremost … and as the wise mooseroni says “then see where ~you’re~ at…”

  • Jaxon

    Hmmm. Creative trading. Rangers had a great team but poor Faceoff% this season. How about Gordon, who we will probably lose at the trade deadline anyway, goalie Zach Nagelvoort who is from New Jersey and had a .929% at UMich prior to this year, Jordon Oesterle and the Oilers 117th pick for G Cam Talbot, RW Richard Nejezchleb, who had an NHLE of 24pts this season and the Rangers 89th pick and RD Dan Boyle as an offsetting contract dump. It would save the Rangers almost 3 million in cap and address their faceoff weakness. At the deadline we might get a draft pick in the 45-60 range at the upper end but more likely a 75-90 pick for Gordon, which is what we get here as well. So if you subtract gordon for 89th pick, the trade is basically a very fringe prospect in Nagelvoort, a decent prospect in Oesterle and the 117th pick for Talbot, Boyle and a solid RW prospect in Nejezchleb. The Oilers turn around and trade Boyle for a 3rd or 4th round pick at this years deadline and have one good 3/4 season from Boyle in the meantime. Thoughts?

  • paul wodehouse

    The source of this 16th for Talbot rumor was coming from the Sens camp.
    I wonder if the rumor was a little bit of smoke to convince the Sens to ask less for Lehner.

  • Zambonitron

    Why would you give up a top 16 pick for a goalie who’s only proven that he can play well in a handful of games in front of one of the leagues best defence. The fact that he’s a ufa makes me question why they wouldn’t just go after Neuvirth or Ramo since they both won’t cost you anything and both looked really good on lesser teams. The only 2 unproven goalies I make trades for are vasilevskiy and Gibson, but those teams need players that will help them win now, mid first round picks won’t cut it. The oilers don’t need to use an early pick for a goalie, although I do love samsanov @ 33 I think they need to trade the pens first for help on D or grab the best player that falls to your lap. You’re never chained to the prospects you pick, there’s always the possibility of trading a prospect later on for the defensive help. And if your lucky enough to have a timo Meier or Kyle Connor fall to your lap, that’s gonna look a hell of a lot more intriguing then a mid first round pick to a lot of teams that might have had one of them in their top 10.
    Just please dear Jeebus , don’t let chia sign Franson to a 5×5 deal this summer . I don’t think I could survive the oilers throwing another pylon on the ice all season long. Despite what he brings offensively

  • Jaggedstream

    The top 20 goalies (min 15 games) by save percentage had 8 goalies taken in 1st round, 3 taken in 2nd, 3 taken in 3rd, 1 in 4th, 1 in the 7th, 1 in the 8th and 3 undrafted.

    Every scouting service has Samsonov listed as the top goalie for the draft by a wide margin.

    Both Button and MacKenzie have Samsonov listed in the top 20 for this “deep”draft.

    The weakest position on the team and in the prospect pool is in goal for the Oilers.

    The last goalie drafted in the first round and developed by the Oilers had the 4th best save percentage in the league this year and will be the highly sought after goalie in the UFA market if the Wild don’t sign him.

    Not drafting a goalie in the 1st round because goalies are “voodoo” seems to speak to an inability to evaluate talent.

    Drafting scraps of the goalie prospects that are left in the 5th or 6th rounds and hoping for the best will keep the prospect pool of goalies weak.

    Step up and take Samsonov at 16!!