WWYDW: Trade Deadline Rental What-If

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(Photo credit: Billy Hurst/USA Today Sports)

We are now just a week away from the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline.
With that in mind, for this week’s edition of What Would You Do Wednesday, we
thought we’d look at some of the rental options potentially available to the
Oilers.

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The Rental Market

2017 deadline chart

The chart above shows 25 potential deadline rentals, as well
as Edmonton’s three significant unrestricted free agents. For potential
acquisitions, we’ve assigned a cost in draft picks, players and futures. We’ve
also assigned a potential return for the Oilers expiring contracts.

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The task for you, the reader, is pretty straight forward.
Which rentals would you be willing to pony up for as Oilers general manager?
Would you be willing to move any of Edmonton’s pending UFAs? Let us know in the
comments section.  

THE #PRAYFORPLAYOFFS PARTY

Pray For Playoffs Party 

As you probably expected, the Pray for Playoffs party will be happening at the Pint Downtown on Friday, February 24th, with doors opening at 4pm and the hockey game starting at 5pm. Aside from making sure we’re all well hydrated, we’ve got the usual swag bags planned along with raffles, giveaways, and more. I encourage you to start coughing now so that your boss won’t be suspicious when you call in sick. 

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As always, it wouldn’t be a Nation party without trying to raise as much money as possible for our charity partner, Sport Central. If you’re unfamiliar with their work, Sport Central is a local organization dedicated to making resources available to assist kids in sports in the Edmonton area as well as central and northern Alberta.

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Your $20 ticket gets you:

  • A Pray for Playoffs Party t-shirt
  • A $20 Pint GC
  • $10 worth of Oodle Noodle GCs
  • A lottery ticket for our door prizes
  • Access to the exclusive Pray for Playoffs NationGear launch
  • You’ll be in attendance for the re-launch of NationBeer! Yes, we have our own beer now. Not only that, we’ll buy a beer for the first 100 people to show up with their ticket as a thank you for your support. 

As always, all proceeds from ticket sales will be donated directly to Sport Central so bring your friends, get involved, and help us support a community in need. You can get your tickets here before they sell out.

This is a party that’s been 10 years in the making and you’re going to want to be a part of it.

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RECENT POSTS


        • T.J.F.M.

          Yes we do. We have not surrendered it to Boston yet.

          And if I’m not mistaken (which I very well could be), if we do end up trading that pick, then it automatically transfers to next year. But as of Draft day 2017 (and assuming we already traded our 2nd round pick), then that 2018 2nd rounder will officially become Boston property (as it cannot transfer another year).

          If it will make us better for this season’s playoffs, then the 2nd round pick should be made available. And worry about the compensory pick to Boston next year.

    • freelancer

      This “Boyle is worth a 1st” talk that has been growing each day is scaring me. I see no reason to give up this years first round pick, especially for a 32 year old third line centre.

    • Strottie

      Willis, out of curiosity how are you setting the prices for rentals? Henderson mentioned a Servalli tweet that hinted at the cost for Shattenkirk being in the ballpark of Jones and a conditional second?

      I’d be looking to prioritize going after Vanek and Pavelec personally – our lack of scoring depth is really starting to show and I’m not sure Brossoit is up to snuff.

      I’d try to haggle the price on Vanek a bit and see if Detroit would rather a 3rd this year and next instead – GMs tend to just see picks as picks, whereas fans pay more attention to the round – and I’d personally sit better knowing we had next year’s second. Just looks better. Pavelec, I’d pay the 4th for regardless. He’s been shaky but is known for being streaky and had moments over the last two seasons where he’s looked like a solid starter. If Talbot were to go down in the playoffs and Pavs was the backup, I think the team would be fine.

      If Shattenkirk can be had for Jones and a conditional second, I pull the trigger fast enough to break my index finger. If it’s a 1st, Davidson, AND Benson, I wouldn’t without it being a sign-and-trade.

      Yzerman’s ask for Boyle is nuts. Why don’t we swap bad contracts? Pouliot for Filppula, and maybe shuffle late-round picks to balance it out a bit. They could use the cap space and one less nmc, and we can (for now) afford both of those things.

    • Jay (not J)

      I don’t know. Hall for Larsson really destroyed my faith in 3rd party assessments of the trade market. There are too many moving parts and too many confidential conversations to believe that these estimates are on the mark. Furthermore, as we’ve seen in Edmonton sometimes a GM wants more depending on who he’s selling his ‘rental’ to. That being said, sure, if he can get Pavelec for a round 4 pick Chiarelli may be foolish not to do it. If Halak’s value has really fallen to Fayne and a 5th then the Oilers are probably better off with Brossoit. If Fayne wasn’t a negative trade value he wouldn’t be such an easy pass through waivers, which we’ve seen that he is.

      • Hall for Larsson is a much more complicated trade than a straight-up deadline rental. I thought about including Matt Duchene in here, but decided to limit it almost exclusively to rentals for strictly that reason.

        Halak and Fayne have comparable contracts (one year left each, real money) and both have cleared waivers, gone to the AHL and played well there.

    • shaner

      those prices seem fairly realistic (although,I have no idea). The only ones I would question is boyle and hanzle (just seems like a first round pick is a bit high) for both of these guys. If your chart was realistic, I would take vrbata,,,,,,maybe its just because he has burnt the oilers at will over the years but he seems like a one shot scorer, which the oilers could use

      • The Hanzal valuation is structured on the Vermette exchange with Chicago in 2015; he went for a 1st and defence prospect Klas Dahlbeck. I like Hanzal a bit better than Vermette, but I also like Oesterle better than I liked Dahlbeck.

        The Boyle valuation is identical to the Paul Gaustad trade from 2012. I don’t know if he’ll hit first-round pick level return but that’s the reported ask and my guess as to what such a deal would look like. Centres always carry a premium.

    • Strottie wrote:

      Willis, out of curiosity how are you setting the prices for rentals? Henderson mentioned a Servalli tweet that hinted at the cost for Shattenkirk being in the ballpark of Jones and a conditional second?

      To some degree they’re based on reporting and older trades, but for the most part they’re based off deadline deals of the last three years. I have a spreadsheet put together with every pending UFA rental trade over that span.

      So, for example, Marian Gaborik, Jaromir Jagr, Curtis Glenmcross, Jiri Judler and Lee Stempniak all went for something in the range of a 2nd + another pick in years when they were on pace for 50-ish points, which is where you get the pricing for current UFAs like Vrbata, Vanek and Eaves.

      This obviously isn’t going to be bang-on, but it should be a reasonable approximation unless something (expansion, flat cap, weak 2017 draft) really moves the market this year.

    • StephLee

      Man, I’d love if we went and for Parenteau or Patrick Eaves. Our RW depth is just not good at all, and if we want to win a round in the playoffs I feel like shoring up that side will be essential. I might be an unpopular opinion, but I am totally all for dealing our UFA bunch this year.
      Hendo has been a real good soldier for us, but it’s been made obvious this year that he has lost a step and our team is doesn’t really have a place for him as long as pitlick and khaira are here.
      Gryba is awesome, I love how he is in our community is a defender who knows his place, but I kinda think he’s replaceable by a more mobile guy like oesterle.
      Russell, seems to be a real polarizing guy for the readers on O.N. I don’t hate him, but I feel like he’d be too expensive for what he contributes, and I know that money matters when we gotta pay McDavid.

      • Two years ago Andrej Sekera got dealt from Carolina to Los Angeles in exchange for a first-round pick and Roland McKeown (a prospect selected in the second round a year earlier).

        I think 2017 Shattenkirk is a more useful player than 2015 Sekera, and unlike the ‘Canes that year the Blues are firmly in the postseason. Davidson as the add there might just work for them because he could slot in on the left side of their second pairing, restoring some LD/RD balance.

        Your mileage may vary.

    • fisherprice

      Some of these valuations seem right, but the price for Vanek and Vrbata seems optimistic. If all it took was a second and fourth for one of those guys, it seems likely one of them would have already been moved. I’d also feel way more inclined to give up a first rounder for one of those two instead of Brian Boyle. Don’t get me wrong, I like Boyle, but if you’re giving up a first (even in a weak draft) I’d way rather have an established top 6 scorer than a good third line center. A first for a Boyle rental seems way too high.

      Quite frankly, I’m on team shoot for the moon, just go get Shattenkirk and see where the chips lie after the season. It’s a weak Western Conference this year, the only two teams that seem all that scary are Chicago and San Jose (I think Minnesota is very good, but not as good as their point total would suggest). Going on a real run this year is not out of the question. Winning also seems to have a strange effect on most player’s willingness to re-sign in the off-season too.

          • Florescent Oil Orange

            I would like to see what hemsky can do on a well rounded Oilers line up.

            Additionally I like the versitility and price of Hudler. Any forward position top 6 winger for a 4th round pick. It was only 2 seasons ago he was too 5vrs5 goal scorer league wide

            • Xtnct

              I would trade Hendricks and use that pick to grab Steve Ott. Ott has good FO% and is a versatile forward that can play either wing also. Gives us options if we want to put Drai or Nuge on wing.

              I would do the Fayne for Halak trade. Only worry there is the extra year on Halak but we need a back-up next year anyway and Halak has playoff reputation. If Brossoit steps up then we can likely trade Halak next year when some team runs into goalie performance or injury trouble.

              I would do the Patrick Eaves trade in a heartbeat. We need RW depth and he’s young enough you could try to sign him for an extra year or two.

              I do NOT trade any of our other D. D depth in the playoffs is huge. I also would not resign Russell unless the terms were very team friendly.

    • shaner

      id be inclined to see if colorado would have interest in a eberle, davidson, and next year or this years first for Duschene…..Am I crazy?

      ebs and duchene salary are almost a wash, we trade a good sound defence man (who we might lose for free anyways and we get a good 2nd/3rd line centre who needs a fresh start

      • The problem is that Colorado is going to want the deal to be structured around a defenceman, not a right wing. Something like Klefbom+ or Nurse++ fits with what’s generally being reported.

        Now maybe that’s an optimistic ask by the Avs, given Jones for Johansen and Larsson for Hall. But I doubt there’s any deal to be made in which Eberle is the centerpiece.

      • btrain

        Then when Duchene doesn’t amount to much or has an off-season or slow to heat up season like Lucic, who do you trade him for? Grass is truly always greener. Generally when Matt Duchene shows up in our lives (if not a special event) its when the Oilers are playing him or we see him on a highlight package. If Duchene was having the season he is having in Edmonton he would be smelling like a goat to many as well. He has one more point then Eberle this season. He also has 6 less points than Eberle since the 2010-2011 season, the year Eberle came into the league. You also cannot use the competition not taking them seriously card as both franchises have not been good for the majority of the past 6 years.

        Conclusion, these are very similar and comparable players in every way including current contracts and term. Anything but a straight up one for one or a small sweetener for the initiating team would be unreasonable. Those who would see Eberle as a significant step down, are likely impacted by market factors (i.e. Eberle gets far more attention than Duchene for both good and this season for the bad). Both players are having down years, so not sure how this particular season can have any real weight to this proposal.

    • Valar Morghulis

      With the variety and amount of UFA RW’s available, I just hope we can add one of them. I don’t even care who, just create some more internal competition for that weak right side.

    • IRONman

      Win now. Out of cap space soon. Leon 6 million? 97 12 million? Nurse ect

      Iginla on RW.

      Halak back up.

      Shattenkirk will come at 8 million year. Costly but money talks and is RD with 40 plus points.

      It feels like 2006.

      Go for it.

    • The Whispererer

      If i’m Chia I’ve already sent my fax(es) to the NHL to report the Halak and Russell trades ( although I would have tried to get the Isles to take Pouliot first, but Fayne works too ).

      As for the rentals I would only try the Vanek, Eaves, Parenteau or Sharp deals, in that order. Vanek seems destined to wear an Oiler jersey someday, ever since that failed offer sheet.

      I’d rather have Gryba than a 4th. Hendricks for a 6th, meh.

      • Looch#27

        Trade an NHL caliber defencemen for an AHL goalie?!?!holy crap I wouldn’t let you be waterboy on my kids peewee team!!!! Just a heads up Halak is a bum who gets paid like Fayne just what this team needs more crap ass contracts. Fayne for Halak maybe works because their both AHL’ers

        • The Whispererer

          Reading is apparently not your strong suit. I posted that I would do the Halak and Russell trades as set out by Willis. How you twist that into Russell for Halak is beyond me.

    • BobbyCanuck

      I would love to get Hemsky, at least he has been in the play-offs with us!

      Jonathan, would you consider an article outlining our roster’s play-off experience/games played/points/cups?

      I know we do not have a lot of players with that sort of experience, and I think if we make the play-offs, that sort of ‘been there done that’ could prove to be quite valuable

      Patrick Sharp is a proven winner, I wonder if he still has enough gas in the tank?

    • Looch#27

      I’d take Patrick Sharp and PA Parentou fixes our right wing issue and third line center freeing up Nuge to do some wing work which might help his game out. As for unloading Russel before playoffs,man some people don’t get hockey good dmen who play top four minutes don’t just appear outta thin air and we need a competitor who lays it on the line every night this is Russel people!!! Give your heads a shake for even the suggestion

    • Oil9744

      I would only give up a 1st rounder for Shattenkirk, Hanzel, Vanek ain’t worth it, but to be honest I think St.Louis would ask for more then that package for Shattenkirk for how in demand he is.

    • Spoils

      if we made one move – what’s a bigger problem? scoring or d?

      i’d factor in a prediction of certain players’ likelihood to show up in the playoffs… injury risk…

    • Spoils

      there’s a lot of parity in the league. if the oilers get hot, if eberle gets clutch, if Puljajarvi comes online, if Klefbom steps forward, if Talbot raises his game even more…

      makes me want to add something!

    • Oilfan11

      Basically Vanek and anyone below him on the list with the exception of Desharnais would be acceptable, the others ones have too high of an asking price, especially Shattenkirk – keep that bum away, didn’t want to be traded here so don’t bother wasting any time on him.

    • Explicit

      I wouldn’t complain if Chia didn’t do much and kept his picks either. This team isn’t going anywhere yet, we could always see what they have first and get some playoff experience before we start giving up picks for rentals. Our prospect pool isn’t exactly deep

    • BabyNugeMonitor

      Only Shattenkirk is sufficiently impactful; the rest are replacement-level caliber. Chiarelli is better off doing nothing than sending away future assets for hollow contributions from players sustained only by their reputation.

    • Cowbell_Feva

      I would love to see Patrick Sharp come to Edmonton. I have always loved his speed and willingness to shoot the puck. He could be brilliant along side 97 on the right side with his one timer. Cheap to get and will be a UFA after the summer.
      Stanley Cup experience. He’s rotting on the 3rd line in Dallas and would surely get a shot in the arm coming to a meaningful stretch drive in a hockey mad city.
      Pull the trigger ChiaPete!

    • Tony Montana

      I would target a RW, my choices in order would be: Patrick Eaves, Patrick Sharp, Thomas Vanek.

      If I could get something for Hendricks I would do that too. He has been a good soldier and I hate to send him off, you cannot get too attached to depth players regardless of their strong character.

      I would then roll something like this once everyone is healthy

      L1: Maroon / McDavid / Eaves/Sharp/Vanek L2: Lucic / Draisaitl / Eberle L3: Caggiula / Nuge / Slepyshev L4: Khaira / Letestu / Kassian

      D1: Kleffbom / Larson D2: Sekera / Russell D3: Nurse / Benning

      Scratches:
      Pouliot
      Davidson
      Gryba