Home Ice Calculations

Tomorrow’s game against the San Jose Sharks will play a major role in deciding who gets home ice advantage in the Pacific Division.

Ducks: 101 points with two games remaining. (Chicago and LA)
Oilers: 97 points with three games remaining. (SJ, Vancouver twice)
Sharks: 97 points with two games left. (Edmonton and Calgary)

The Ducks need one point to guarantee home ice in the first round. The Oilers and Sharks have many possibilities and calculations.

There is still a chance of a three-way tie. The Ducks lose both, the Sharks win both and Edmonton loses to SJ in regulation but sweeps the Canucks.

If that happens, San Jose would finish first because they have the most regulation wins. It is unlikely, but with the Bettman point we have to cover every scenario.

The Sharks would win any tiebreaker because they have the most ROW (regulation/OT wins).

If the Oilers tie the Ducks, there are many factors to consider.

Currently Anaheim has 41 ROW and Edmonton has 40. If they tie in points and are tied in ROW, the Oilers would win the tiebreaker because they were better in the head-to-head matchups. They played five times this season, three in Anaheim and twice in Edmonton. In the event of a tiebreaker, they eliminate the first game in Anaheim, which the Ducks won, and use an even number of games. In the four remaining games, Edmonton won three of them. They had six points and the Ducks had four, due to two OT losses.

Tomorrow’s game versus San Jose will likely have the biggest impact in determining who likely finishes second in the Pacific.

If the Oilers win in regulation, then they only need to pick up one point in their remaining two games versus Vancouver to guarantee at least second place. If they win in OT/SO then they would need to gain two points versus Vancouver to secure home ice advantage.

If they lose in regulation, they would need Calgary to defeat the Sharks, and Edmonton would have to pick up at least three points versus the Canucks. If the Sharks win their final two games, then Edmonton can’t catch them, because the Sharks would own the tiebreaker.

The Oilers have played very well to put themselves in a position to earn home ice advantage, but in order to gain home ice for the first time in 27 years, their best chance is to win tomorrow, or at least lose in OT or a SO. If they pick up a point, then even if the Sharks are victorious over Calgary, the Oilers can still pass them by sweeping the Canucks in their final two games.

Calculating and looking at playoff possibilities is much more exciting than looking at draft lottery possibilities.

How times have changed in Edmonton.


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