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Oilers must have lost Bill Scott’s lucky socks, fall to 10th overall

After the NHL Draft Lottery odds were finalized a couple of weeks ago, we knew what kind of work we had ahead of us if we were really going to #MakeItFive. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t meant to be this year as the Edmonton Oilers fell back a spot and will select 10th overall.

Heading into tonight’s lottery, the Oilers had an 18% chance of winning one of the three separate draws and selecting in the top three, but an 82% chance of picking within the 9-12 range. Personally, I wasn’t expecting much apart from having fun with the lead up and thought that there was no possible way that the lottery gods were going to smile on us yet again like they did in April of 2015. That said, there was still an outside chance that the Oilers were going to be able to pull of a lottery win and that hope was all I needed to keep me interested. Unfortunately, someone must have thrown away Bill Scott’s lucky socks because, for the second straight draft lottery, the Oilers fell back in their seeding after the lotteries were done.

At the end of the day, having the Oilers land within the 9-12 range was exactly what I was expecting and, while I was hopeful that they would defy the odds and win the lottery again it just wasn’t meant to be. Now the next question will be what will they do with this pick? Moving toward the Draft in June, it will be interesting to see whether or not Peter Chiarelli will look at moving it as part of a package for an established player that can help the team now, or will he head up to the podium and stock the cupboards for another day? There is an argument to be made on either side of this and, now that we know where the Oilers will be sitting on Draft day, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with a fire burning underneath Peter Chiarelli’s seat.

Either way, now that we know the Oilers will be picking 10th we have the next two months to argue about what they should do with it. Personally, I think that the smarter move would be to use the pick and stock the cupboards moving forward, especially with another expansion draft coming, but Pistol Pete is on the hot seat and I can’t help but wonder if he’s more likely to move it if for no other reason than an attempt at a little self-preservation. If the Oilers miss the playoffs again or even get off to another slow start, Chiarelli would probably be shown the door and that, to me, makes it feel like he’ll be leaning towards making a deal for immediate help even if he never admits it. But you never know, maybe Carolina wins the right to draft Dhalin tonight and all of a sudden a guy like Justin Faulk shakes loose. I would certainly move the pick as part of a package for a guy like that. Like I said, there are arguments to be made on either side of the coin.

There are a lot of ‘what ifs’ still to be decided, but one thing is for sure, the next couple months just got a little bit more interesting now that the Oilers will be drafting close to the midway point of the first round. Trade? Use? Let me know in the comments what you guys think Chiarelli should do. And if you think they should use it then tell me who for. Need inspiration? Dusty put together a list of some of the defensive prospects that might fit within this range a week ago and will have a mock draft coming up on the site Monday morning. For now, we head into our Saturday night pondering the future and arguing the merits of using or trading the 10th overall pick.

  • Frank Rizza

    Take the pic! Take a defenceman!

    We’re going to always need young cheap players coming up. We have Connor for 8 more years. We Need real players that the team develops going forward. We all know how expensive defenceman are and were not winning the cup next year anyway so I say it’s a no brainer to keep the pick.

    • Craig1981

      Every draft I hear this…..”take Larrson nor RNH”, “take Hayden Flurey not  Draisaitl”, “take Juolevi not Puljujarvi”

      Why must we never learn BPA makes the most sence almost all the time. You need good prospects at both ends and truth be told our D may have better prosects than our forwards

      …… oh ya, trade the Brazal pick for Reinhart.

      • Anton CP

        Again, Barzal was never going to be drafted by the Oilers regardless, it would most likely be Thomas Chabot. So stop talking about Barzal as some sort of missed opportunities.

        • 24% body fat

          its wasnt Chabot, it was Ek they were going to draft. And I think thats his point. Drafting Barzak would have been BPA, which would have maximized the oiler assets.

          If you have your choice between a 100 dollar bill a 50, a 20, a 10 etc. You take the one with the most value. Than you go shopping with that value later to get what you need. You dont take the toonie because it weighs more, or the quarter to complete your coin collectiont. you take the 10 dollar bill and trade it for multiple coins and other bills.

          Unfortunately Chia cant do this right either.

        • Craig1981

          Maybe I should of not mentioned a name as ot could of been any of the next 10-15 picks (debrusk, Samsonov, Bouser) But you are missing my point. Draft for skill, not for current need.

      • Okay but we’re picking 10th, not top-4. Are you talking about BPA vs need or Defensemen vs forward? When was the last time you bothered to read up on a prospect from this year not named You seem to talk about BPA but not mention a single player from this draft. Unless Wahlstrom falls then one of those defensemen that will be available are the BPA.

    • OilerForLife

      I can’t agree more. Oilers drafting has been vastly improved in recent years. I still believe that the sure and steady way beats the frantic, panicky way that ends up gutting us at the draft. The Oilers farm club system seems to have recovered and now is not the time to take their foot of the peddle. I say feed the pipeline.

  • Chiarelli finds himself in a tough spot. He has to fill two needs, but can only meet one. On one hand, the cupboard is bare and he has to use his picks to build up his prospect pool. On the other, something has to be done for the here and now. Oilers rebuild can’t go on forever.

    My best guess is he’ll try to both with unsatisfactory results on both.

    • Big Nuggets

      I think the rebuild goes on forever if management is always thinking they need to pull off some blockbuster deal. The better way to build a team takes patience for drafting and developing players. Look at Austin Watson on Nashville, he was drafted years ago, they could have pulled the plug on him years ago but they stuck with him and now he is an excellent and inexpensive winger. Tom Wilson in Washington likewise took a while to be effective. We aren’t going to pull off some quick-fix trade that will suddenly give us the depth that these playoff teams have.

      I would actually argue that depth in general is what has sewered us this season. Our wings were so barren that Pontus Aberg got time on all the forward lines, then a 25 year old AHLer won the 1st line RW position with 15 games left in the season. Along with a 20 year old on defense. Not to take anything away from those players but they weren’t going to crack anyone else’s roster. We don’t necessarily need star players to fill out the roster, just actual NHL level ability.

      • crabman

        Good GMs do a good job of balancing the team’s needs today to the team’s needs in the future. Nashville is a great example. They have done a good job of drafting and building team depth but a large amount of the teams best players have come through good trading and FA. half their top 6 have been brought in via trade as well as 3 of there top6 defencemen. In all 8 of their starting 19 were brought in. It’s a matter of drafting well, then develope well and then make deals that help your team and don’t lose value. Nashville gave up a top pair defenceman in Jones. They drafted him even though they were stacked on D and were able to flip him for a 1C. They traded the teams best defenceman since it came into the league in Webber but turned him into Subban. Add just added Turris for a pick and some prospects. Everytime they moved out important pieces but brought back important pieces. It’s not all just draft and develope in Nashville. Poile has been doing it all.

        • Big Nuggets

          yes, I agree. I want to emphasize that for Nashville it started with drafting and developing and that put them in a position to trade for what they needed without causing new holes in their line-up. We aren’t going to have any long term success as a franchise if we neglect the draft.

      • crabman

        I haven’t seen anything about there being a big drop off in talent after 9. There is a clear 9 and after that it gets muddy.

        “Based on our survey, there is a huge drop off in consensus after No. 9.” Bob McKenzie.

        This is from an article over at TSN, Bob mcKenzie’s most recent draft list. He makes his list based on how 10 scouts rank players. They all basically have the same top 9 and then all rank the next group differently.

        • Hockeysense9393

          Yeah…but that’s BM? Already giving up before they even have a chance to draft. So they are confused when they get top 3 picks? I shudder to think what the war room looks like now lol.

    • GK1980

      The current players on the roster will win games not some new kid. Really think about it. Next year isn’t going to be about the next new kid on the team, it’s how this current group will grow and hopefully have success.

    • Odanada

      Merkley is a RD, but at 5’11, 165lbs he is awfully small for a D in the NHL. He’ll need a lot more mass to effectively box out the big boys in front of the net.

      • crabman

        5’11 and has the potential to add weight to his frame. There are plenty of defencemen that are in the 5’11 range and playing well. The game is changing toward more speed and skill and these smaller defenceman are becoming more useful. Down the road if he developes he could be matched up with a Nurse or Klefbom on the left side and both have size to balance the line. I think the days of passing on skill because of lack of size are gone.

    • crabman

      If they could trade down to add another 2nd and still draft Smith I would do that in a heartbeat, depending on who is still on the board. I have seen some draft rankings that have Merkley fall all the way down to 45th. If Smith was still available after trading down it might be possible to draft Smith and Merkley and another good prospect with the extra 2nd. That would be a good draft in my eyes. Odds are Smith and Merkley would never end up playing on the same NHL team because their size and playing style but if they both develope well one becomes a good trading chip for other team needs. Good D prospects/players always seem to have good value on the trade market. Plus this would give us 2 shots at finding the offensive Dman we have been looking for forever.

    • Hockeysense9393

      Ohhh the Oilers would just find a way to destroy his confidence, trade him away for pucks, then watch him succeed somewhere else. Sounds like a normal trend coming out of Oilerland.

  • I’d say 10th is basically a coin flip if you get an NHL player. Depends on the depth of the draft. A crap load of Dmen projected to be available at that spot. I think we’ll get a player worth keeping.

  • What-a-Mike

    Well, 10th is better than 11th or 12th. That being said, if I had trhe choice what to do, I would wait to see if maybe Dobson or Wahlstrom is available before making the next move. Logically, at that point in time, I would trade down about 5 -7 spots and get another second back to have two picks for the price of one. After the top four or five are picked this year there are virtually no prospects who will jump right into the NHL for 2-3 yrs. The prospect system needs to up even build more and Seattle is coming.

    • Hockeysense9393

      Not necessarily. I would bet on quite a few GM’s being able to convince Chia that a 11th or 12th is more politically convenient. If he gets a top 10 pick wrong…it could really hurt him, but if he gets a pick out of the top 10 wrong? Then it was just a crap shoot and it’s not his fault. See?? 😂

  • GK1980

    The only win that mattered was in 2015. The penguins, capitals ect haven’t had high draft picks in years and they still seem to do ok. It’s time for the oilers to actually draft and develope players with intelligence and purpose.

    They can’t trade this puck unless a team offers a crazy good deal.

    • Serious Gord

      Seriously?

      Penguins got two number ones that mattered – Crosby and Fleury and a #2 in Malkin. All 1st ballot HHOFs. They rode them to four cup finals and three cups in ten years.

      They along with the Blackhawks are the poster children for tanking to get high draft picks.

      • GK1980

        That’s my point, the Pens had 2 that mattered, the Oilers had 4 (minus yakapov) that could have mattered yet they still struggle. The focus needs to be getting this current group of players to win, and not depend on Yamamoto or the new drafted kid this year.

        • Serious Gord

          Well it’s a pretty weak point. Teams that have tanked for few years – gotten a lot of high picks – have dominated the cup winnings for the past decade or so.

          That is THE lesson.

          That the oil have sucked even with four #1s says far more about what a crap organization from the owner on down the oil is than it does about THE lesson.

  • Braindead

    Trade Klefbom+1st pick+ Yamamoto or Puljujarvi for OEL
    Don’t sign strome or Benning
    Sign Mark stone and Tomas Plekanac
    Cooper Marody starts as 4th line center
    Nuge-McDavid-Rattie
    Lucic-Leon-Stone
    Drake-Plekanac-Slepy
    JJ-Marody-Kassain
    Nurse-Larson
    OEL-Bear
    Sekera-Russell

  • Hockey123

    1. Buffalo Rasmus Dahlin
    2. Carolina Andrei Svechnikov
    3. Montreal Filip Zadina
    4. Ottawa Adam Boqvist
    5. Arizona Quinn Hughes
    6 Detroit Noah Dobson
    7. Vancouver Brady Tkachuk
    8. Chicago Evan Bouchard
    9 New York Oliver Wahlstrom
    10 Edmonton Jesperi Kotkaniemi