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Photo Credit: Dave Sandford

Trading #10

The Draft Lottery has finalized the order in which teams will select this coming June at the NHL Draft in Dallas and the Oilers slipped down to the tenth spot.

Will they actually take the stage and actually pick a player at that spot? That’s far from finalized. Some think the team should hold onto the pick and add another young piece, while others think they should dangle the top ten pick and try to improve the current roster.

I’m not sure what the right move is, but I do know that there would be plenty of teams interested in that pick.

Before I get into that, it’s a good idea to try to establish what the value of the pick could be which is tough because, over the past ten years, I can only find five instances where a top-ten pick has been dealt for a roster player at the draft.

Last year, the Rangers moved up to 7th overall (Liass Andersson) and got Anthony DeAngelo in exchange for Antti Raanta and Derek Stepan.

In 2014, the Anaheim Ducks acquired the 10th overall pick (Nick Ritchie) along with Jakob Silfverberg and Stefan Noesen from the Ottawa Senators for Bobby Ryan.

The Canucks moved up to the 9th spot in the 2013 Draft and took Bo Horvat by dealing Cory Schneider to the Devils.

The 8th overall pick in 2012 (Derrick Pouliot) was packaged with Brandon Sutter and Brian Dumoulin by the Carolina Hurricanes and sent to Pittsburgh for Jordan Staal.

In 2011, the Columbus Blue Jackets traded the 8th overall selection (Sean Couturier) along with Jakub Voracek and a 3rd rounder to Philadelphia for Jeff Carter.

Two things I take away from this: you can get a very good roster player for a top-ten pick, but the trade will very rarely be one-for-one. If the Oilers want to parlay their draft pick into an impact NHLer, they will likely need to add something else to the package, like maybe Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula, Matt Benning, prospects and/or more draft picks.

If the Oilers decide to go this route, here are some teams who I think might be interested in grabbing a pick in the top-ten:

OTTAWA SENATORS

I mentioned Ottawa first because I think they’re the best fit. They will likely keep their pick that’s currently fourth overall but will be forced to give up their first rounder next year as part of the Matt Duchene trade. I think they may be interested in grabbing another top-ten pick this year to make up for it.

The Sens also have the Penguins first rounder this year, so maybe the Oilers could swap #10 for the Penguins pick and an NHL forward like, maybe, Mike Hoffman. They also have J.G. Pageau and Zack Smith who might be of interest to the Oilers, but both of them are coming off poor seasons and don’t come close to first-round pick value.

Obviously, there would have to be added value from the Oilers side, but I think there could be a fit here.

NEW YORK RANGERS

We saw the Rangers move up in the draft last year, and given the fact that they’re currently in a rebuild, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were hungry to add more high-end prospects into their pool.

The Rangers currently have the ninth overall pick, but they also have two later first-round selections from the Bruins and Lightning, so there is potential for the Oilers to trade down in a deal with New York.

The Rangers have a few interesting names like Ryan Spooner and Kevin Hates, but I’ve had my eyes on Mats Zuccarello for a while. In my opinion, the Rangers would likely have to add another piece to bring the value up to snuff, but I’d keep my eyes on New York at the draft.

DETROIT RED WINGS

Like the Rangers, the Wings are a team in transition and generating a strong prospect pool is clearly a priority for them. They also have a pair of first-round picks already secured, including Vegas’ pick which is later in the first round.

This is another scenario where I could see the Oilers either trade the pick or trade down to later in the first round in exchange for a roster player.

Gustav Nyquist hit the 20 goal mark for the third time in his career this past season, but he has a fairly big price tag and just a year left on his deal. The piece I would target is Anthony Mantha, who has butted heads with the Red Wings organization before.

Mantha is coming off a strong season where he scored 24 goals, and he’s just 24-years-old so I’m sure Detroit isn’t itching to part ways with him but he’s a big, skilled winger and would look great in the Oilers’ top-six. It’s also worth noting that Mantha is an RFA this summer.

THE WRAP

I think there will be a handful of teams very interested in adding another top ten pick, and the Oilers might be one of the only teams with a high pick that will be willing to move it.

It’s also fair to assume that if the pick is moved for an impact roster player, it will likely have to be a part of a bigger package and while the Oilers aren’t very deep prospect wise, they do have some decent young NHLers.

There are those who think the Oilers should keep the pick and add a good young prospect to the organization and I personally believe with that line of thinking, but as I’ve said before: my job isn’t on the line.

Chiarelli’s job is on the line and if he wants to improve the NHL roster he will have to think long and hard about trading the tenth overall pick.

    • HardBoiledOil 1.0

      good lord i hope they stay as far away from Merkley as they can! he needs to learn how to play defence and although he could, i’d rather see the Oilers take another more well rounded player than him.

      • a lg dubl dubl

        Sure Merkley has some defensive misgivings right now, but when he models his game to Letang and thought of as a Jake Gardiner I’d be hesitant not to pick him. Dude is right handed and a pp specialist…exactly what the team needs, no? I’d take him if I was able to trade down to the 15-20 spot which is exactly where he’s slotted to be.

        • oilerjed

          RHD PP specialist is what we need now but if we want to win this decade is this the guy? My hope is that we have this spot covered for awhile by the time any develping dman is ready for the bigs/.

        • oilerjed

          RHD PP specialist is what we need now but if we want to win this decade is this the guy? My hope is that we have this spot covered for awhile by the time any developing dman is ready for the bigs/.

    • Kepler62c

      I really like the thought process, moving down has real appeal. But I’d be staying away from Merkley. He’s a high risk, high reward player and the Oilers have one of the best players in the game, they don’t need to shoot for the moon at the draft, take a safe pick that has the best chance of becoming a well rounded NHL support player.

      • Kepler62c

        I’d add that I have a renewed faith in the Oilers scouting department since Chia took over, they’ve actually done really well at the draft – lots of “good arrows” on the guys they’ve taken the last few years. Moving down to #15-#25 will still land the Oilers a great prospect and I think they’ve done a great job targeting their guys in the draft and think they’d make the right choice in that range while also adding a roster player when they trade down.

    • Kepler62c

      I like this, the Oil are chalk full of D prospects right now – nothing wrong with trading from an area of strength to fill some holes. Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Berglund, Mantha, and Samourokov are all looking like solid prospects and moving one or two of the middling ones for NHL help in package deals would be decent asset management.

  • moonlambos

    Carolina said they are willing to trade thier 2nd overall pick. Lets trade up for it. 10th overall and caggiula or jones or maksimov should get it done.

    • Imrighturwrong

      NOT Maksi. I’m from Niagara and have had the privilege to watch him play. I’d dump jp a million times over long before Kirilla the Thrilla. I think #10 and JP gets it done for #2

      • Kepler62c

        #10 and JP for #2? Are you nuts, go look at the trades that have been made involving top 10 picks again – good thing you aren’t GM you’d be overpaying more than Chia does.

    • LordRuggles

      I guarantee Carolina would ask for more than a middling prospect or a 4th line winger to drop out of the top 3. The rangers have three firsts this year, so I don’t know if they necessarily want to move a roster player for another, but if they wanted to give us Filip Chytil, Neil Pionk and there 28th ish for our 10th…I would listen.
      I would still prefer we keep 10th and take BPA…a righty D or a forward.

  • Big Nuggets

    I am a ‘keep the pick’ kind of guy but if they could make a deal for Mantha it would be pretty sweet. Swap the 10th pick for a later pick, throw in JP and C Jones. Don’t think Detroit would even go for that and I wouldn’t want to part with much more. And even this deal could end badly as JP will improve, the 10th pick could turn into a stud and Jones might only be 2 years away from breaking into the league as a quality puck-moving defenseman.

  • CMG30

    There are only two wrinkles with the idea of trading the pick. The first is another expansion draft. The second is that you have to have confidence that the GM is not going to flush another asset for ‘reasons’.

  • RJ

    Your last sentence is the exact reason why Chia should have been fired.

    The long view is where the team needs to be.

    I obviously don’t get a vote but the only trade I’m in favour of is moving up to grab a puckmoving RHD.

    • oilerjed

      While your not completely wrong there has to be a balance between the short term and the long term. Connor needs support now or we will be watching some pretty glorious years pass us by while we wait for players to hopefully develop. I’m of a mind to use the pick in a package to find young players that can be part of the solution now. Target RFA’s from teams who are starting rebuilds and maybe don’t want to pay a player who will be UFA by the time their team is in competitive.

  • Oil9744

    Not bad, Hoffman and Zuccarello would be great upgrade’s on the wing but I think we should get defence first, if we swing out on getting a defencemen then I’d be ok with trading the pick for one of those players, just no more flippn Reinhardt kind of trades PC!!!

      • Oil9744

        PC knows that we better have a good offseason or he’s done. So far he’s got the coaching changes coming in, he’s got some more depth in goaltending although no one exactly how good Koskinen is gonna be, plus he signed him to a questionable contract to say the least, I think he’s going a Dman and at least 1 winger this offseason. Here’s to hoping we don’t screwed over to bad with his trades and over payments.

    • The Whispererer

      Not a bad idea. I wonder what it would take.
      If they wanted to trade #11 for # 10 they would have to add something; would their 2018 3rd be enough something ? Let’s say that’s reasonable. So what would it take to acquire the #12 from them ? Would returning their 2018 and 2019 3rd round picks plus a prospect like Samorukov do it ? If that’s not enough would Jones instead of Samorukov do it ? I’m suggesting dealing a LHD prospect because of the size of our leftorium; it would be difficult to move a decent forward prospect because that is a position of great weakness for us. Besides, Snow owes us from the Reinhart deal.

      If not the Isles, maybe we could work something out with Philly for #14 and 19. I’m not sure what would be available to us at those picks though.

  • cityofchampions

    Its not brain surgery people…..you hold the pick unless you get an offer that’s too good to turn down. Not many teams will be trading top 10 picks and we shouldn’t be either, the default position should be to keep the pick. Let teams who want a top 10 pick come to you and turn down their offers until (unless) they offer something outstanding. Chiapet can’t lose another trade – this one has to be a clear win. If other teams aren’t willing to give up a substantial return then we keep the pick and stock the cupboards. I would in no way package JP, Bear or Yamamoto (even though I have concern with his size) with the pick, as we are in dire need of grade A prospects and can’t be giving away 2 top prospects in any trade. I’d be willing to package a B prospect or someone like Calligula with the pick for someone ready to step in now, but again it has to be a clear win. If its not a clear win, then keep the pick.

      • Moneyball

        Yammers has potential as he has proven himself at lower levels. Trade puljujarvi he sucks at every level of hockey and the smart money is on him being a 3/4th liner.

      • Big Nuggets

        We will need players in the future also. If we actually develop our own players we will have a longer window to contend. Winnipeg and Nashville are now battling it out in the playoffs because of the work those teams did to draft and develop. Unfortunately it takes patience and everyone is all out of that.

  • Rama Lama

    There are a lot of creative ideas for trading our # 10 pick…….the only problem is we have a GM that cannot pull of a meaningful trade. He seems to like the simple one for one type of trade, where he seems to always get fleeced, even by GM’s like Garth Snow!

    I say for our sake we keep the pick, draft well, and wait till we have a real GM that can finally make a deal where we steal a trade.

  • Kepler62c

    I’m totally alright with them moving up/down in the draft, and I’d favour moving down to later in the 1st round and adding a roster player. But don’t trade the pick outright, a 1st rounder needs to be coming back – Seattle Expansion needs to be accounted for.

    Some real crazy trades could be thought up involving #10, #2, and any of Faulk, Klefbom, JP, Skinner, and Hanifin.

  • Kr55

    I trust Gretzky, who grabbed Pastrnak and McAvoy in his last 2 years with Boston, with that pick more than I trust Chia trading it.

    Just keep it. Team desperately needs assets. There is no quick solution to fix this roster now that we have bled skill and entered cap hell. We need to build up assets and wait for the cap to go up

    • Beer_League_Ringer

      This is a good point. Oilers drafting has improved and most points of contention with current player personnel (i.e., GM) are trade and contract-related. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which we can add a roster player for help now with all the NMC/NTC contracts we have. If expansion happens next summer, the Oilers must protect: Russell, Lucic, Sekera, Talbot (if he isn’t traded to one of the 10 teams of his choosing this year) and Larsson (modified NTC kicks in next summer). The Oilers are going to lose someone very valuable if this situation isn’t handled properly, if that’s even possible.

  • oilerjed

    Take the middle ground and package the pick for RFA players that are able to step in right now and still be here in 4-5 years rather then spend the pick on a player that may take that long to arrive.

  • TravisDK

    I made the text a few days ago on jamiesons show that suggested:

    10th overall + 2019 2nd rounder + Nurse for Marner + Zaitsev with 500k retained.

    Allows the oilers to buy low(for once since Maroon) on zaitsev who 2 years ago had 38 points in his rookie season, and is also right handed, as well as pick up a RW in marner with talent and a year left on his ELC.

    Toronto needs a dman and nurse will be more money than Zaitsev in the long term, the 10th over all pick will allow for a cap friendly prospect, and either Nylander or Marner will be traded.

    For the oilers both are R shooting(on a team of almost all L) Marner doesn’t need to be resigned till next year which sekera and Russell are both eligible to be traded at that point as well as Nuge has 1 year left at 6 million, and he will either be traded at a premium for playing with Mcdavid or will be resigned for less than his current salary I hope. Marner pushes JP and Yamo down the depth chart, adds a rw to play with Mcdavid or Drai, and the D men get their handedness correct as well as a PP QB.

    Finally a team trying not to play LW on RW or LD on RD.

    Nurse is a tough loss, but you have to give to get, and the oilers don’t have a lot to give.

    Nuge mcdavid Marner
    Lucic Drai JP/Yamo/vanek?
    Cagguila/aberg strome JP
    Cagguila/aberg khaira kassian

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera. Zaitsev
    Russell. Benning

        • TravisDK

          Gardiner put up 52 points this season. If you believe he’s the issue in Toronto you’re deluded. He’s no more the problem in Toronto than Kelfbom is in Edmonton.

      • TravisDK

        Well they are gonna have to give him or Nylander up for something. A young D man with high upside and a cost controlled top ten prospect would probably be a pretty good start and the ability to get rid of a contract they may believe to be bad. A few bloggers on maple leafs nation believe Zaitsev needs to be gone, and if they are taken as seriously as the guys on Oilersnation are then usually there’s some validity to it.

  • ed from edmonton

    Who knows if the pick gets moved. What PC has told us the a RHD is his first priority and that the pick is in play. If is moved I think a RHD will need to be part of the deal. History will tell us to get a high end player the Oil will need to give up a player along with the pick. A player would likely need to be moved out for cap management.

  • AlexTheOilersFanSince2006

    Here’s my take. We did it. We made the playoffs and we ended the drought. Right now, making the playoffs shouldn’t be the priority. We saw how this group is when they’re playing smart, solid hockey. Right now, we need to stick up the cupboards and work on our prospect pool. That way, when the time comes, were not overpaying free agents, or relying on fringe NHLers. Making the playoffs is an afterthought right now. Keep #10, draft the BEST player available and go from there. I can’t deal with no playoffs, but if I have to, then I will. This is about building for the future right now.

  • TKB2677

    For me it comes down to what the goal of the team is. If they keep the pick, in my opinion that means while they want to get better and win if they can, they are still in building mode. Based on the rankings and what the supposed experts say, there is a drop from Dahlin to #2. Then Svechnikov has solidified himself as the consensus #2, so that means there is another drop off from 2-3. Then there is a mix from 3-9, then supposedly there is a drop off again from 9-10. So that means there are 3 drop offs before the Oilers pick. If by some miracle, a forward falls to the Oilers, they are probably 2 yrs before making any kind of impact. If it ends up being a dman at #10, they are probably 4 yrs before making an impact. So in all likelihood, no one they draft with the #10 is helping this team for at least 2 yrs, probably more. So if they make the pick, they are still building.

    If they trade it, then they are looking to improve now. Hopefully this is the last time the Oilers will be in the top 10 for a very long time. If you look at the trades listed above, if you package the #10 with something else, you have the potential to get legit players that can impact your roster immediately. So as an example, if you could package the #10 and say a Benning and get back a legit, top 4, right shot, PP dman. That would be hard to pass up in my opinion.

  • WillyWonka

    While it is obviously important to build the prospect pool, the fact is Edmonton, based on the current window of opportunity and cap restraints, can not afford to idle for 2 or 3 years while waiting for draft picks to hopefully turn into the players they need today.
    Right now, the Oilers are stacked up front, but the back end is missing a quick puck moving, fast skating point producing defenseman. You really want to waste 2 or 3 years of the top guys lives waiting in Hope’s that a draft pick works out? Either trade a roster player or a 1st round pick to get the defenseman you need.
    If I was Chia, I’d be going after OEL, using my 1st round pick plus Nurse and poolparty. Your gonna scream it’s an overpay, but if you want a true #1 D, they are even more rare then starting goaltenders.
    And I know your gonna not like this but Edmonton and Calgary can help each other; TJ Brodie for the 1st round pick and whatever side pieces make it equitable. Brodie has had a tough time since gulutzen put him on the wrong side, but this guy is too good not to rebound, one of the better skaters in the league, good first pass out, And can play the power play. He puts up numbers when playing his off side and paired with a solid defender.
    If you dont like these trades, what would you propose to get the true #1 defenseman the team needs?