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Looking back at the 7-15th picks from the 2008 NHL Draft

Yesterday, I posted a breakdown of the players that were selected with the 10th overall pick over the last decade to help in our quest to decide whether or not to trade this year’s pick. In the comments section that followed, CaptainCanada94 suggested that we not only look at who was selected 10th overall in their respective Draft class, but also to include the surrounding picks to better give us an idea of how things actually played out. He was right. If we’re going to really dive into what kind of player the Oilers might end up with at the 10th overall slot then we need to expand our sampling window to include those drafted around that pick.

Over the next week or so, I’ll do a breakdown of the 7-15th overall picks from each NHL Draft in the last decade to see what kind of players have gone in that range, and see if there’s any kind of pattern that we can find as a result. Today, we start with the 2008 class:

Colin Wilson (7) – C – Nashville Predators

2017-18 Season: NHL: 56GP – 6G, 12A for 18 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Wilson is an instinctive player with a combination of size, power and elite-level skill. His greatest attribute is his tremendous hockey sense. What set him apart from other collegiate freshmen is how he was able to utilize his hockey sense to better the team around him regardless of which zone he is playing in. His great on-ice vision and awareness allows him to anticipate and make very good reads on developing plays.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Colorado Avalanche NHL 56 6 12 18 6 -5 6 0 1 1 0
NHL Totals 558 101 154 255 130 53 13 12 25 2

Mikkel Boedker (8) – LW – Phoenix Coyotes

2017-18 Season: NHL: 74GP – 15G, 22A for 37 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

“A very speedy skater, with good balance and offensive instincts, Boedker exhibits excellent puck pursuit and strength on the puck. With his outstanding shot and lightning fast release, Boedker should become a first or second line winger in the NHL. Boedker is a big game player, who needs to continue to look for the shot over the pass and improve his strength, however, he may be ready to make the jump to the NHL.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- GP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 San Jose Sharks NHL 74 15 22 37 12 0 10 1 5 6 6
NHL Totals 618 109 179 288 110 34 6 11 17 10

Josh Bailey (9) – RW – New York Islanders

2017-18 Season: 76GP – 18G, 53A for 71 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Used in all situations, Bailey has an excellent work ethic and can play in both ends of the ice. He is a very good playmaker and can feed his teammates the puck and take face-offs very well. Often used as a quarterback on the power play, Bailey’s hockey sense and leadership skills are excellent.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 New York Islanders NHL 76 18 53 71 17 -20
NHL Totals 715 124 253 377 198 22 4 7 11 2

Cody Hodgson (10) – C – Vancouver Canucks

2017-18 season: As we saw yesterday, Hodgson did not play last season.

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Hodgson is a solid all around talent.  He does not possess blinding speed, or flashy moves, but he tends to get the job done.  He has developed into a fine two-way player.  Hodgson is an extremely smart player who uses all of his skills in both ends of the ice. Excellent skater, very strong on the puck, can quarterback the powerplay. Hodson has very good hands and excellent on ice-vision.”

SEASON TEAM LGE GP G A PTS PIM +/- PGP G A PTS PIM
2015-16 NASHVILLE PREDATORS NHL 39 3 5 8 6 2
2015-16 MILWAUKEE ADMIRALS AHL 14 4 7 11 0 1
NHL TOTALS 328 64 78 142 68 12 0 1 1 2

Kyle Beach (11) – C – Chicago Blackhawks

2017-18 Season: Austrian League: 44GP – 9G, 13A for 22 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Beach has good size and can use it, but he is not overly-aggressive in the physical game. The winger makes more of an impact by getting under the skin of opponents rather than running them through the glass. His heavy shot, nose for the net, and sound offensive instincts make him a good goal-scorer, particularly on the power play. He tends to trail the play more often than impose his well on the ice, but playing a more assertive game could help make the next step to the NHL.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- Pts PIM
2017-18 VSV EC Austria 44 9 13 22 78 -8
NHL Totals 0

Tyler Myers (12) – D – Buffalo Sabres

2017-18 Season: 82GP – 6G, 30A – 36 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Myers has premier size and excellent potential as an offensive defenseman. At this early stage in his development, he is already a great skater, but needs to become a more reliable passer and point man.”

Colten Teubert (13) – D – Los Angeles Kings

2017-18 Season: Did not play but did post weird shit on Twitter

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Heading into the Top Prospects tilt, the 6’4 Teubert finds himself ranked 27th among North American skaters by Central Scouting and was eighth in the International Scouting Services December rankings. Strangely, Teubert is listed at either 181 or 188 pounds, although no one looking at him believes the White Rock, B.C. native looks an ounce under 200 pounds. During the on-ice testing, which included timed skating agility and puck-handling drills, Teubert was indeed the stud among the Team Red skaters.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2016-17 Nuermberg Thomas Sabo Ice Tigers DEL 37 1 5 6 58 15
NHL Totals 24 0 1 1 25

Zach Boychuk (14) – C – Carolina Hurricanes

2017-18 Season: KHL: 35GP – 11G, 13A for 24 points/Probably followed and unfollowed you on Twitter

Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

“A bit lighter and smaller than ideal NHL forwards, he is highly-skilled and uses hockey smarts to overcome his limitations. Still learning the nuances of pro hockey and sometimes has lapses in the neutral and defensive zones.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2017-18 Bratislava Slovan KHL 35 11 13 24 38 -15
NHL Totals 127 12 18 30 16

Erik Karlsson (15) – D – Ottawa Senators

2017-18 Season: NHL: 71GP – 9G, 53A for 62 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Karlsson is a very offensive minded defenseman. He is blessed with excellent hockey sense, confidence and coolness. Everything looks so easy and natural when Karlsson has the puck under control in the offensive zone. He is a true power specialist that usually gets the puck on net and also delivers very good passes. Furthermore, he is mobile and a capable skater with good agility and technical skills. The knock on Karlsson is his defensive game and size. While he is very cool and confident in the offensive zone, he sometimes chooses difficult solutions in the defensive end.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Ottawa Senators NHL 71 9 53 62 36 -25
NHL Totals 627 126 392 518 316 48 6 31 37 26

THE WRAP…

Looking at this list, there are a few of things that stuck out to me right away. Firstly, how the hell did Erik Karlsson fall to 15th overall? Man, the hindsight on that pick is remarkable and it’s amazing to think of now that 14 teams actually past on him — funny how that works sometimes. Second, Kyle Beach… ouch. He was the only guy in this cluster that didn’t even play a single game in the NHL — that’s a tough one for Chicago. Thirdly, TEUUUUUUUUUUUUUUB! We know that guy! Sorry, that part of the Penner trade didn’t really work out so well, huh?

As for the bigger picture, what I see in this list are some names that are currently contributing to NHL hockey teams. Sure, there are some busts and misfires in this group, no doubt about it, but five of the nine players selected in that 7-15 range are still playing in the NHL right now, and that’s not a half bad success rate when you think about it. More importantly, the Oilers are desperately lacking skilled depth in their organization and I’m not sure that it would necessarily be wise to pass up the chance to pick up a guy with the potential to play over 500 games in the league just as Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Myers, and Karlsson have all done. Could they strike out and get a Kyle Beach? Sure, but there’s also a chance that they find a player that could stick for 10 years.

To me, the 2008 Draft could be a checkmark on the side of using this year’s pick as opposed to trading it. What do you guys think? Tomorrow, we check out the 2009 Draft.

  • Bills Bills

    I have said it over and over. The goal is to not have top 10 draft picks. So when you get the odd one, you keep it. Good teams draft well.

    Seriously, unless the return was amazing or you’re just swapping positions because you know you can get your guy at 7 or 15, only an idiot would trade that pick.

  • mikeoes

    Interesting research Baggedmilk! Karlsson wow hingsight is 20-20 eh? I would trade the pick (I’m not an idiot Bills bills) because I don’t want to endure 2-4 more years of losing while we wait for this pick to POTENTIALLY (5 out of 9) help us out. Also my trust in our current development system is not good, Ask Jesse about that (if he can understand you because he’s had minimal english instruction). Obviously Chirelli needs to make the trade worthwhile (no trust there either). But if I don’t trust trust either, id rather wait less time to find out my hunch was correct with a trade then many years to hope this pick turns out. Baggedmilk any way you can add TOI and how many years before they broke into the NHL as stats in your future comparisons? Would help out with determining value of those picks immensely.

  • GregJP

    The whole thing with Jesse’s lack of English skills is mind boggling. I’ll lay the blame 50% on him and 50% on the Oilers. I live in a small city in NE Poland and do some private English tutoring. The vast majority of my students, after 2-3 years, become quite fluent in English. They can carry on a conversation and understand everything I say.

    Here is a guy who knew he had a very good chance of playing in N. America since he was a kid. Why was he not taking private lessons when he 12 or 13? At that age it’s much easier to learn a foreign language. And why did the Oilers wait until this past year to tell him to get serious with his learning.

    Because, Oilers.

    • Moneyball

      The English thing is telling. If you are earning 2.5 million and can’t bother to learn English for your job, how much are you putting into the rest of your game?

  • toprightcorner

    Would have been nice to list the first 5 years of stats after being drafted. That is what everyone wants to know, how could this pick help the team in the next 5 years compared to trading the pick for someone for immediate help and that will play for the Oilers for 3-5 years.

  • toprightcorner

    If you take Karlsson out of the mix, Tyler Myers is the only one drafted that would be a better alternative to trading the pick for a proven 2nd/3rd line winger.

    You need to take salary and control into consideration, but I have yet to see any real evidence that keeping the pick is better for the Oilers long term if you are just looking at the players themselves.

    If Chiarelli can make a trade as a 1 for 1 or a package deal and get a player in return that truely fills a hole on this team and is under contract for at least 3 years or a trade and sign, you have to make that trade.

    Because of the expansion draft, sure it can make it difficult, but that is when you can make a deal with Seattle to leave a certain player alone. You also would have to trade a roster player to fill that hole, so technically you are still losing a player to add the immediate help you need. If you want something of value back, you will will have to trade a player of value back, most likely a better player than you would lose in the expansion draft.

    Russel and Sekera can be traded next year based on their limited NMC kicking in, doing so gives you a lot more flexibility for your protection list.

  • Jaxon

    One thing I’ve noticed in crunching stats for Canadian Juniors and USHL during their draft seasons is that there seems to be a real line in the sand of 13.5 5-on-5 minutes per game that eliminates most of the high scoring busts, including Beach and Hodgson.

  • toprightcorner

    I hope the next article is all players picked from 7-12 from draft years of 2010-2016. That would show how those players impacted their teams during the same 8 year span of McDavids contract. Everyone wants to know what is best for the next 8 years, that would give everyone actual context of the type of help the Oilers would likely get if they made the pick. If it turns out that 5 of those 36 picks are a quality 2nd line forwards or top 4 dman, that is a 14% chance of getting an impact player for the Oilers. If 15 of those 36 picks became middle 6 forwards or a regular dman playing 16 min a night, then there would be a 42% chance that that pick is making any contribution to the team. a 4th liner or 7th dman would still be considered a failure in the “helping the team” category as those guys should come fromlater round picks.

    I don’t know what the numbers are, but it seems like it is worse than the odds of a coin flip that pick helps the team in McDavids next 8 years.

  • CaptainCanada94

    Thanks for the shout out! Looking forward to the rest of the posts!

    I’m a strong believer in keeping the pick. However I do think Chia is in a spot where he needs help immediately. Packaging the pick with a Klefbomb as suggested, better be a homerun…With Chia’s track record, don’t hold your breath.

    Can the 10th pick be used as leverage and packaged with one of our boat anchor contracts? This would require a lot of work on Chia’s end, but would be the big game avenue I would pursue. As mentioned in Yaremchuk’s article, players with NMC’s may be open to it since they must give a list of teams in a couple years. Not sure Chia is ready to take accountability or ownership of the bad contracts handed out though…