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Looking back at the 7-15th picks from the 2009 NHL Draft

With the NHL Entry Draft less than a month away, I’ll be spending the next week putting together a year-by-year breakdown of the players that were selected with the 7-15th overall picks to see if there’s a pattern on what we might expect with the Oilers picking at 10. So far, we’ve seen some great picks, some busts, and some others that have landed somewhere in the middle, and we’re only into the second year of our countdown.

Today, we dive into the 2009 Draft class. What will we find? Let’s find out together. 

Nazem Kadri (7) – C – Toronto Maple Leafs

2017-18 Season: NHL: 80GP – 32G, 23A for 55 points
Rookie season (2012-13): 48GP – 18G, 26A for 44 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

“Kadri is a highly skilled forward who can make plays at a whim in the offensive zone. He’s fearless on the ice which compensates for his small frame.  While there are questions surrounding his game-to-game compete level and some of his decision making, his positives outweigh those negatives.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- GP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 80 32 23 55 42 2 4 0 2 2 19
NHL Totals 488 145 168 313 344 17 2 6 8 37

Scott Glennie (8) – C – Dallas Stars

2017-18 Season: Did not play, probably selling cars somewhere
Rookie season: Still waiting for one.

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“He can play centre and has a wicked shot with great straight line speed but has never produced goals at the pro level as he did playing with Brayden Schenn and Matt Calvert for Brandon in junior hockey. He is not a natural playmaker and his defensive play has been a work in progress during his AHL career. More of a technical player who is not combative or imposing despite his size and strength, he can play a perimeter game at times. His work rate and determination have improved and he is a productive forward at the AHL level but he is not likely to be the type of scorer envisioned when he was first drafted.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2016-17 Manitoba Moose AHL 45 7 13 20 34 -9
NHL Totals 1 0 0 0 2

Jared Cowen (9) – D – Ottawa Senators

2017-18 Season: Did not play
Rookie season (2011-12): 82GP – 5G, 12A for 17 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Cowen is a force to be reckoned with based on his size, strength and skill package. In the defensive zone he simply dominated junior-aged players with his physical attributes and excellent positioning. The mobility has returned and he makes good decisions with the puck in his own end. On the offensive end he has good instincts and will rush the puck when the opportunity presents itself. He will need to continue working on his puck-handling at the point to be a complete two-way defenseman. The Senators management is impressed with his maturity, commitment and work ethic.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- GP G A Pts PIM
2015-16 Ottawa Senators NHL 37 0 4 4 16 7
NHL Totals 249 15 31 46 174 17 0 4 4 25

Magnus Paajarvi (10) – LW – Edmonton Oilers

2017-18 season: NHL: 79GP – 8G, 4A for 12 points
Rookie season (2010-11): 80GP – 15G, 19A for 34 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“Paajarvi is a very speedy and skilled winger. His acceleration is top notch and what really characterizes his game is the way he drives to the net. In full speed, he gets around the opposing defenseman with ease and usually gets the puck on the net with a quick wrist-shot. Offensively, he is also blessed with above average hockey sense, nice technical skills and the ability to set up his teammates with passes. He is a creative player with smarts that usually scores quite spectacular goals and does things that are hard for the defensemen to read.”

SEASON TEAM LGE GP G A PTS PIM +/- PGP G A PTS PIM
2017-18 ST. LOUIS BLUES NHL 44 2 2 4 8 -3
2017-18 OTTAWA SENATORS NHL 35 6 2 8 4 -8
NHL TOTALS 387 51 54 105 72 11 1 3 4 2

Ryan Ellis (11) – D – Nashville Predators

2017-18 Season: 44GP – 9A, 23A for 32 points
Rookie season (2011-12): 32GP – 3G, 8A for 11 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“The common refrain heard throughout the league is that if Ellis was just three inches taller, he’d be a sure-fire top-five selection. Unfortunately, in many ways, the NHL is a big man’s league and Ellis’ dynamic power-play quarterbacking abilities and offensive production may be overshadowed by his lack of height.  Ellis has an outstanding shot from the point and is consistently able to jump-start the offense with a well-timed pass or breakout through the defensive zone. He has also worked on his defensive abilities (leading the team at plus-52) and has drawn praise for his effort and leadership.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Nashville Predators NHL 44 9 23 32 6 26 13 0 5 5 8
NHL Totals 396 55 118 173 140 58 5 22 27 26

Calvin de Haan (12) – D – New York Islanders

2017-18 Season: 33GP – 1G, 11A for 12 points
Rookie season (2013-14): 51GP – 3G, 13A for 16 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“De Haan is in his first full season with the Islanders in 2014-15 after impressing in a 51-game stint after joining New York at the end of November last season. Already seeing full-time duty with the Islanders, he has not yet put up the eye-popping offensive numbers at the pro level that he did in juniors. He should contribute more in the offensive zone as becomes more familiar with the NHL game.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 New York Islanders NHL 33 1 11 12 8 11
NHL Totals 304 12 69 81 118 16 0 3 3 4

Zack Kassian (13) – RW – Buffalo Sabres

2017-18 Season: 74GP – 7G, 12A for 19 points
Rookie season (2011-12): 44GP – 4G, 6A for 10 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

“Kassian projects as an imposing power forward at the next level with good enough hands and hockey sense to potentially play on the second line someday. He uses his body effectively in the offensive zone and creates mismatches along the wall for opponents because of his strength. Kassian could ultimately end up anywhere from a fringe first liner to a scoring third liner depending on his development over the next few years.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- PGP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Edmonton Oilers NHL 74 7 12 19 92 -8
NHL Totals 387 52 65 117 614 21 3 0 3 33

Dmitri Kulikov (14) – D – Florida Panthers

2017-18 Season: 62GP – 3G, 8A for 11 points
Rookie season (2009-10): 68GP – 3G, 13A for 16 points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report:

“In addition to his superb hockey sense and confidence beyond his years, Kulikov is no slouch in his own end and he’s smooth enough on his skates to quickly be in a position to break up any counter-attack that he may come against. Still adjusting to the physical grind of the longer North American season, he’ll only get better as he continues to fill out and mature.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/- GP G A Pts PIM
2017-18 Winnipeg Jets NHL 62 3 8 11 22 6 1 0 0 0 2
NHL Totals 569 33 121 154 348 14 1 4 5 10

Peter Holland (15) – C – Anaheim Ducks

2017-18 Season: 23GP – 1G, 3A for four points
Rookie season (2012-13): 21GP – 3G, 2A for five points

Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

“Holland has begun to put his game together in the past couple of seasons. Where he was a player who could have been described as having all the tools but no toolbox, Holland has evened out his effort and consistency. He is a big player with a soft touch. Although he is more of a shoot-first center, he has the vision and passing skills to be a respectable setup man.”

Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM +/-
2017-18 New York Rangers NHL 23 1 3 4 7 -10
NHL Totals 266 36 49 85 112

THE WRAP…

Looking at the 2009 list, I see a bunch of guys that are well on their way to playing 300 NHL games+ with varying levels of success and that’s a pretty solid success rate, all things considered. The funny thing about working on this project is that every year seems to add even more weight behind the idea of actually using the pick rather than trading it. Yes, there are always going to be busts in every draft class and some players that work out better than others, but I’m still seeing that the majority of the players that are picked within this range are contributing at the NHL level, and that should mean something.

For me, it’s hard to look at how many players that were drafted in the 7-15 range and go on to have some NHL success and still believe that trading the pick is the best available move. Could it help in year one? Sure, but is that in the best long-term interest of the organization? Will you potentially have to wait a few years before the prospect is able to contribute at the NHL level if you do use it? Probably, but the counterpoint is that you could also be missing out on a guy that could potentially be on your roster for a decade. So what’s the right answer? It could be using the pick.

PREVIOUSLY IN THE DRAFT COUNTDOWN

  • toprightcorner

    7th – top 6 forward
    8th – complete bust
    9th – out of the league
    10th – fringe NHLer
    11th – top 4 dman
    12th – top 4 dman
    13th – 4th liner
    14th – fringe NHLer
    15th – fringe NHLer

    33% chance of making an impact
    55% chance of being a bust or fringe player

    There is a much higher chance of a swing and a miss with the 10th pick using these examples. A trade should give you 100% chance of a middle talent player.

    We will see after all of the examples, but this draft class makes me lean towards a trade if you can make a good acquisition.

    • fasteddy

      This is exactly why I laugh at the naysayers for getting upset that Montoya’s playing time turned a fifth round pick into a fourth round pick…..this is the top third of the first round, the fourth and fifth rounds are about filling out your minor league rosters for the most part.

      • Kepler62c

        Totally agree, giving up a 4th vs a 5th is nothing to get upset about – yes, you shouldn’t just throw later picks away but the difference between a 4th and 5th is so small it’s laughable this was even a clause in the trade.

        • Gravis82

          Its an indicator of philosophy though. The only way to win is to get as many good players in the draft as possible. By needlessly throwing in a 4th rounder it means you are not committed to a long term plan of draft and develop.

          • Kepler62c

            The original comment was getting upset at giving up a 4th instead of a 5th because of how many games Montoya played. I already indicated that you don’t want to throw away picks, and you can debate all day about the Montoya acquisition. However, the point I made about the difference between a 4th and 5th rounder has nothing to do with the merits of trading picks or not, simply that if you do trade a pick it doesn’t matter if it’s a 4th or 5th based on draft history.

    • Gravis82

      we should not be aiming for middling talent here. We need to be swinging for fences to get a top tier player lower in the order.

      You do that and you move the needle towards being a contender.

      Only way to do that is to pick as many players as possible.

      There seems to be a large faction of Oilers fans who just want to make the playoffs. I don’t want to make the playoffs, I want to build an annual contender.

    • Glencontrolurstik

      All of the picks with the exception of Kadri & Ellis are basically not first round quality.
      This was clearly a weak draft year. Unlike this year, which is fairly strong, especially on D…
      KEEP the PICK… Now, with Yawney on staff, more reason to.

      • That depends on what you consider 1st round quality. De Haan is a full time NHL defensemen who can get you 15-20 assists a year. Maybe he’s not the franchise defensemen but a 2nd/3rd pairing defensemen is atleast late 1st round quality

  • Kepler62c

    I don’t see why, if there is a long term plan, that they’d move the pick. The Oilers have been drafting superstar talent for a long time, one thing the Oilers have been lacking however is those players that turn into middle 6 options, or a respectable top 4D (though that department looks to be changing) – essentially complimentary players who make an impact that you don’t overpay for in UFA. Chiarelli/Gretzky have done a great job drafting so far and I think they could grab a very useful player here. On the college FA front they’ve also done well with Benning and, to an extent, Caggiula.