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Don’t trade the #10 pick

With one playoff appearance in twelve years for the Edmonton Oilers organization, and only one appearance in three years for Peter Chiarelli, Todd McLellan and the rest of the current regime, there could be some internal pressure to try and improve the roster immediately, and dangling the 10th overall pick to acquire an NHL ready player will be tempting.

But the Oilers should avoid that temptation, and instead make a smart selection at #10.

Recent history suggests the Oilers will be able to land a very good player with their selection.

2011

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. Gabriel Landeskog
  3. Jonathan Huberdeau
  4. Adam Larsson
  5. Ryan Strome
  6. Mika Zibanejad
  7. Mark Scheifele
  8. Sean Couturier (Flyers acquired this pick, Jakub Voracek and a 3rd rounder from Columbus for Jeff Carter).
  9. Dougie Hamilton
  10. Jonas Brodin

2012

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Ryan Murray
  3. Alex Galchenyuk
  4. Griffin Reinhart
  5. Morgan Reilly
  6. Hampus Lindholm
  7. Mathew Dumba
  8. Derrick Pouliot (Pittsburgh acquired this pick, Brian Dumoulin and Brandon Sutter from Carolina for Jordan Staal).
  9. Jacob Trouba
  10. Slater Koekkoek

2013

  1. Nathan MacKinnon
  2. Aleksander Barkov
  3. Jonathan Drouin
  4. Seth Jones
  5. Elias Lindholm
  6. Sean Monahan
  7. Darnell Nurse
  8. Rasmus Ristolainen
  9. Bo Horvat (Vancouver acquired this pick from New Jersey for Cory Schnieder).
  10. Valeri Nichuskin

2014

  1. Aaron Ekblad
  2. Sam Reinhart
  3. Leon Draisaitl
  4. Samuel Bennett
  5. Michael Dal Colle
  6. Jake Virtanen
  7. Haydn Fleury
  8. William Nylander
  9. Nikolaj Ehlers
  10. Nicholas Ritchie (Ducks acquired this pick, Stefan Noesen and Jakob Silverberg from Ottawa for Bobby Ryan).

2015

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Jack Eichel
  3. Dylan Strome
  4. Mitchell Marner
  5. Noah Hanafin
  6. Pavel Zacha
  7. Ivan Provorov
  8. Zach Werenski
  9. Timo Meier
  10. Mikko Rantanen

2016

  1. Auston Matthews
  2. Patrik Laine
  3. Pierre-Luc Dubois
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi
  5. Olli Joulevi
  6. Matthew Tkachuk
  7. Clayton Keller
  8. Alexander Nylander
  9. Mikhail Sergachev
  10. Tyson Jost

2017

  1. Nico Hischier
  2. Nolan Patrick
  3. Miro Heiskanen
  4. Cale Makar
  5. Elias Pettersson
  6. Cody Glass
  7. Lias Andersson (Rangers acquired this pick and Anthony DeAngelo from ARI for Antti Raanta and Derek Stepan).
  8. Casey Mittelstadt
  9. Michael Rasmussen
  10. Owen Tippett

Unless the Oilers are going to acquire a goaltender, history suggests they will lose a trade involving their 10th pick. Columbus gave up a lot to land Jeff Carter, and then subsequently moved him to LA for Jack Johnson and a 2013 first round pick (Marko Dano, 27th). Man, those were two bad trades for the Blue Jackets.

Carolina did okay with Staal, but Pittsburgh acquired Dumoulin, who has developed into an excellent defenceman and then moved Sutter to Vancouver for Nick Bonino.

The Ducks got Silverberg and Ritchie for Bobby Ryan. They got younger, cheaper, grittier and two players who played very well.

If the Oilers move the #10 pick, they likely will need to add another young player to the package to acquire a veteran. The Oilers prospect cupboard is still pretty bare. I don’t envision a move that helps them long-term. It could help them for the next year or two, but this team needs to formulate a plan that keeps them competitive year after year, not just for one season.

VALUE AT #10…

Jun 27, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A general view of the arena floor during the first round of the 2014 NHL Draft at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The other factor is the quality players who are available around the 10th pick. Often the best picks come in the first or second slot — not always, but often — but then the gap between #3-#10 is very little, most years. Often, the players closer to the 10th pick are just as good, if not better, than those taken earlier.

In 2011, it is clear the group of 7th-10th pick (Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Brodin) is much better than the 3rd-6th cluster of Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Larsson, Ryan Strome and Mika Zibanejad.

Six years after the 2012 draft, Jacob Trouba at #9 is a much better defender than Ryan Murray (second) and Griffin Reinhart (fourth).

From 2014, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers and Nick Ritchie (8-10) have looked better than Sam Bennett, Michael Dal Colle and Jake Virtanen (4-6).

The quality of picks from #7-10 in the 2015 draft is very strong, with Ivan Provorov, Zach Werenski, Timo Meier and Mikko Rantanen.

In 2016, Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were great top two picks, but Clayton Keller (eighth), Mikhail Sergachev (ninth) and Tyson Jost (10th) have already had solid starts to their career.

It is very early for the 2017 Draft, but watch for Michael Rasmussen (ninth) from Detroit. I felt he was the best forward in the WHL last season. He looks to be very good.

THIS YEAR’S CLASS

We know Rasmus Dahlin is going #1 to Buffalo and it seems very likely Carolina will take Andrei Svechnikov second overall, but after that many scouts believe the gap between #3 to #12 (depending on who you talk with) is very small.

Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk, Quinton Hughes, Adam Boqvqist, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Evan Bouchard, Joel Farabee and Barrett Hayton are ranked in various spots.

Here are some rankings: #3-#12 by a various draft sites/individuals.

Rank Craig Button ISS Hockey HockeyProspect.com McKeens Hockey
3. Zadina Zadina Tkachuk Zadina
4. Tkachuk Tkachuk Zadina Tkachuk
5. Kotkaniemi Wahlstrom Dobson Wahlstrom
6. Hughes Bouchard Kravtsov Hughes
7. Hayton Hughes Wahlstrom Bouchard
8. Dobson Dobson Kotkaniemi Dobson
9. Bouchard Boqvist Hughes Boqvist
10. Wahlstrom Veleno Bouchard Veleno
11. Farabee Farabee Boqvist Hayton
12. Boqvist Hayton Farabee Farabee

NHL teams can often view players differently than draft rankings, but the gap in this year’s class, at least on draft day, doesn’t seem to be that significant from picks #3 to #12. Drafting 18 year old players, even some who have yet to turn 18, is far from an exact science.

Often where a player is drafted can influence their NHL career. For example, if the Oilers draft a right winger he will have a much better chance of producing points playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl than a right winger will who is drafted by Detroit, Vancouver, the Rangers, Ottawa etc.

There are many uncontrolled variables at play in the draft. Teams don’t completely know how much more a player will develop physically, mentally or emotionally. Ask any parent if they truly know how their 18-year-old son or daughter will mature and develop over the next five to ten years. We all hope our kids make the right decisions, and work hard, but we don’t truly know.

The 10th overall pick has good value, and the Oilers drafting record over the past three seasons has improved significantly from the previous decades. They at least have some young prospects outside the first round who are trending to be decent pro players.

Trust Keith Gretzky and your scouting staff to make a good pick. Don’t make a desperation, quick-fix trade that ends up hurting you down the road.

In the past three years, I believe the Oilers drafting in June has been much better than their trading in June.

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  • A-Mc

    i hope to hell they keep the pick. The 1 thing i flip flop on is if they should take a D or a F.

    If they grab a D, we’ll need their services badly but it is unlikely that we’d see the player for MINIMUM 2 full years. If they grab a winger or center, it’s much more likely the player can make the roster in the first couple seasons (But dont force it!).

    Young forwards often contribute much earlier than Defensemen, but at some point we need to get some more young D in the system; preferably RHD.

    • TruthHurts98

      There are some really good D prospects that will go in the second round. Right handed ones who might develop into star players. Draft and develop Oilers. It’s a proven concept! Time to stop PC from making more horrible trades. His draft record isn’t bad at all.

    • Edmonton Eulers

      Tough call on which position to take. I think BPA should be the strategy (although that’s up for interpretation depending on who you ask). Let the player develop because we’ll need good, cheap players coming up for the duration of McDavid’s contract.

  • Keg on Legs

    I think if Wahlstrom is there @ 10 run to the podium. Apparently this Krvstov is very very good, tall & lanky and can stick handle in a phone booth, also doesn’t need a lot of room to shoot. Who thinks Chia takes this russian?

      • Glencontrolurstik

        It’s not a Lucic mess… For Chris’ sake, he had 40 bad games…
        Before that, never missed the playoffs and was good for 50 – 60 points.
        Who knows why, injury maybe?
        If you did trade him, I don’t think you’d get the same in return?
        The worst thing to do with a player is the fan-base run them out of town.
        The way we did to so many others… Would anybody want to work in a place where no body wanted you there? That’d also hold true for anyone considering coming here to play… Give it a rest already…

        • RexHolez

          Thankyou, It’s getting ridiculous. Where’s the articles trying to dump Talbot? He had a bad year, maybe we should sweeten the pot or take on a bad contract to dump him too

          • LAKID

            Talbot should actually be traded also if Chia can get anything for him. Talbot has not had a full season that could be described as a #1. Talbot is a quality backup, do you think Sather is dumb?

  • CBK

    If Chiarelli learned anything trading away a 1st rnd selection, lets hope he learned from that Griffin Reinhart trade. Woof.

    Keep the pick. There’s a promising player available at #10 and you have a scout in Keith Gretzky with a good track record.

  • Corbs

    It’s impossible to say if he should trade or make the pick until you know what the trade would be. If you can get a dman to run the power play and get 50 points you wouldn’t trade it? Or a winger that can score 30 goals?

    I agree that chia’s Track record suggests his trade won’t work out better than his drafting but if that’s the case then he shouldn’t be the gm. That’s a whole other article.

    • Jason Gregor

      Wingers who scored 30 goals last year: Oveckkin (49), Laine (44), Lee (40), Hall (39), Kucherov (39), Benn (36), JVR (36 and a UFA), Pastrnak (35), Marchand (34), Kessel (34), Zucker (33), Gallagher (31) and Connor (31).

      Do you really think a team would trade one of those guys for the 10th pick?

      And why would a team trade a 50-point defender, a proven NHL point producer for the 10th pick? Only 18 defenders had 50 points last year.

      If a team wants to be idiotic and offer up that, of course Edmonton takes it, but I didn’t feel it was necessary to mention best-case-for-Oilers trades scenarios. .

      You are correct on Chiarelli’s recent trade history and t is why I think he is on hot seat in Edmonton. But looking at trades across league from all GMs, it shows us it is very unlikely to get a proven skater (not goalie) for the 10th pick. Oilers would have to package it up and I don’t believe they have enough good assets to move the 10th and another really good young player to get a proven winger or Dman.

  • “There could be some internal pressure to improve the team immediately”
    Yes, there is that. Not doing that means having patience, waiting for the 10th overall pick to mature. It’s now vs later.

    If Oilers keep the 10th, that means it’s a move for the future. If that’s the case, Lucic should stay and play through his struggle. If Oilers trade the 10th, Lucic needs to go for immediate improvement.

    How much patience do fans in Edmonton have?

  • Tonya Harding Compete Level

    If Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Dobson, Kotkaniemi, Hughes are all gone I would love to see Joe Veleno as the pick. Not as high on Boqvist, Farabee, Smith and definitely not understanding the appeal to Hayton.

  • Glencontrolurstik

    I think the one you have to watch for, and is a steal for the team that picked him, (granted a late bloomer) is Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s going to be “golden”.
    I’m surprised he lasted that long in the 2016 draft.

    • RexHolez

      Hope you’re right. Not much to support it tho. I think in a re draft Tkachuk, Keller, Sergachev, Mcavoy and maybe Juolevi would all go before him. But it’s still early, it’s gonna be a big year for him.

      • Glencontrolurstik

        Anyone but Tkachuk on your list.
        His attitude is a nightmare for the dressing room to contain.
        Do you know how many close games he cost the Flames since he joined the NHL? He is an immature quick temper, that’s not too bright.
        Him & his brother Brady used to come to blows at family gatherings apparently, blood everywhere, & the rest of the family would just stand back and laugh at them… That’s the kind of mentality the Flames have to deal with..
        There have been numerous articles written about how the Flames players have been trying to settle down Matthew mid-game but couldn’t & it cost them.
        If I remember, the Jet’s had the same issue with his dad?
        Great skill however dysfunctional.

  • Mr. McDavid

    Mr . Stauffer said yesterday
    Looch’ s dad commited suside .
    Last year . Think about that.
    Rightfully so he was not always
    Right. He will be fine.
    My opinion is keep him .
    This next season he will
    Get back to his old self.
    50 pts , 15 g , feared by 99%.
    His mojo will be back
    Rip Mr.Lucic

  • toprightcorner

    KRAVTSOV was 2nd in goals and 3rd in points on his KHL team in the playoff this year…….just after turning 18 years old. This kid could be phenomenal, but could also be a risk.

  • Anton CP

    Both Veleno and Wahlstrom would be a great choice but the team need to be patient with them. Veleno’s stock dropped because of his terrible junior team he is playing for but is one of the possible future all-star C. Wahlstrom is a natural scorer with very high tendency to shoot first, he will be a great fit to play next to McDavid because he shoots right and play on RW.

    This year has a very deep talent pool that the Oilers will get some really nice talent from 10th pick.

  • ROILYDoGG$

    Only way I think we should trade this pick is to trade down and get 2 picks hopefully in the 12-16 range and we take the most ready players available
    Maybe that Wilde kid and a rh shot winger (best available )
    Option 2 is a rediclous offer that we can’t refuse with Top Pair dman (rh) or sniper, or possibly a lesser of both like 23 year old with a solid year but not a vet.
    However Walstrom or bolqest could be absolute steals at the 10th

  • Bashful

    Wondering if there is a market in Vancouver for Lucic, 10th 2018, 3rd 2018, 2nd 2019
    Eriksson, 7th 2018

    Intent is to ensure Wahlstrom or Dobson can be picked if 1 of them are still there by #7