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McDavid and 100 EV Points

Connor McDavid is 21 years young. He is just beginning the prime years of his career, although with the advancements in nutrition, sleep awareness, training techniques, I do wonder if we will start to see some players remain elite longer than they have in the past. But that is a topic for another day.

Today, let’s look at the possibility McDavid could score 100 EV points. Is it realistic?

On the surface, it seems ridiculous. Over the past five seasons only five players have scored 100 points, never mind 100 EV points, and to be honest I hadn’t even thought about 100 EV points for McDavid until I researched some numbers about Wayne Gretzky. I’m not comparing the two, because no one will match the ridiculous numbers he put up. He scored 1,219 points over a six year span in only 473 games. That isn’t happening again, but I think McDavid has a realistic chance to join a very exclusive club.

Only six players in NHL history have scored 100 EV points in a season. Gretzky did it an amazing ten times. Six times he scored 124+ EV points, topping out at 147 in 1982. Guy Lafleur (104), Mario Lemieux (102), Steve Yzerman, Jari Kurri (101) and Mike Bossy (100) are the others to reach the century mark at EV. Gretzky was the last player to accomplish the incredible feat when he potted 103 EV points in 1991 with the Los Angeles Kings.

McDavid scored 84 EV points this past season. That is the sixth most since 1991.
Lemieux had 96 in 1993.
Jaromir Jagr scored 95 in 1996
Yzerman had 87 in 1993
Brett Hull scored 86 in 1991.

McDavid producing 84 is very impressive. The only other player to top 80 points since Jagr had 82 in 1999 was Henrik Sedin. He had 83 EV points in 2010.

WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN?

Dec 12, 2017; Columbus, OH, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) and Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Jack Johnson (7) chase after the puck during the second period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s quickly bypass the obvious health factor, and look at what needs to occur for McDavid to score another 16 EV points, which is a large jump.

As crazy as it sounds, I expect McDavid to be better this season. Historically, when you look at the truly elite players, they start to ramp up their production at 21 years of age. He will have more experience, he will be stronger, he will have a deeper understanding of the tendencies of his opponents and how he can exploit them, and he has spoke openly about wanting to score more goals

That isn’t just talk. He proved it last season. Over the final three months of the season (Jan 9th to April 9th), McDavid scored 27 goals in the final 39 games. He fired 147 shots on goal during that span (3.76 shots/game), after only having 127 shots in the first 43 games (2.95 shots/game) of the season.

I think it is safe to assume McDavid’s shot/game won’t regress this season. He will likely continue to be around the 3.76 range. That alone will lead to more goals. But it is also important to note that McDavid produced 51 EV points in his final 39 games last year. I’m admittedly leery to pro-rate a stat over a full season, but in less than half a season McDavid scored 51 EV points, so if you prorate his final 39 games over a full season…100 EV points is definitely possible for McDavid.

It will be extremely difficult, no question, but after digging into his numbers from last year, I think he could become the seventh player in NHL history, and the first since 1991, to score 100 EV points in a season.

PARTING SHOT…

McDavid led the NHL with 35 EV goals last season. He will be aiming to become the fourth player since 2000 to score 40+ EV goals in a season. Pavel Bure had 45 in 2000, Alex Ovechkin scored 43 in 2008, while Steven Stamkos scored 48 in 2012.

He did score 24 EV goals in his final 39 games last year, so 40 is definitely possible, but what about 50 EV goals?

Only seven players have scored 50 EV goals in a season.

Gretzky did it three times, scoring 54, 55 and the NHL record 68 in 1982.
Phil Esposito did it twice, scoring 50 in 1974 and 51 in 1971.
Brett Hull scored 57 in 1991
Jari Kurri potted 54 in 1985.
Teemu Selanne (1993) and Steve Shutt (1977) scored 52.
Reggie Leach potted 51 EV goals in 1976.

I wouldn’t be stunned if McDavid pots 50 EV goals at some point in his career.

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  • hockey1099

    I think the biggest hurdle to 100ev points will be opportunity. Hopefully he gets a few more calls this year and i foresee the power play being better. With increased power play time and points 97 should play less ev minutes thus making 100 points harder. That said 100ev is a realistic goal for the next 5-9 years. if he hits 100 ev can he get 150 points?

    • Jason Gregor

      If the penalty shot is called when teams are at even strength it is. If the penalty shot is awarded when on the PP then it would be considered a PP goal.

    • Beer_League_Ringer

      Disagree. Saying that having a player who dominates like Connor is a waste is odd (at best). Chill. The playoffs are coming, and they are coming every year for a VERY long time. PC tried the “fill-a-need/create-a-hole approach. Doesn’t work and NOW we all know it. McD, Drai, RNH, Klef, Larsson, Nurse (all under 25), good drafting, and a few responsible trades here and there. Next year is not make or break for that core… Perspective.

  • Redbird62

    I have mentioned this previously when the subject of even strength points came up, but back during Sid’s 3 injury years (he was aged 23-25 and at his offensive peak on PPG basis) he scored 111 even strength points in 99 games, which translates to 92 evp per 82 games. Hard to say what he could have done in any one full healthy season during that stretch, but he was way above anyone else at that time. Even in the strike year, he missed winning the scoring race by 5 points, even though he only played 75% of the games. In his first concussion season, after 41 games, he was on pace for 132 points, 42 even strength goals and 92 even strength points. Crosby’s performance over the last 13 years is the only legitimate comparable to what McDavid is doing and I think gives us insight as to what is possible in today’s NHL. McDavid, like Crosby is a quick study, and and I believe will learn many of the other little skills that helped separate Crosby from the pack when he was at his very best. But McDavid’s speed will be the one attribute he possesses over Crosby that could push him beyond where Crosby got to for individual achievements. It will be fun to watch, but more so if the Oilers are as successful right along with him.

  • BobbyCanuck

    Pfftt! The only thing stopping McDavid from hitting your projections is McDavid, the lad needs to become a little more shelfish, and that will come with the understanding that he is the best player on the ice, and HE has the best chance of scoring a goal, not passing the damn puck 2 feet in front to someone whom he thought was faster than that

    • Burnward

      What goes really fast generally stops really fast too. His hockey lizard brain always seeks out the proper play and executes. Even if us dotards can’t see it.

    • Beer_League_Ringer

      He demonstrated his understanding of this fact in the last 35 games of the 2017-2018 season. His numbers were insane and the the team played better too (granted in a lost year). I assure you he gets it.

  • Abagofpucks

    Mark my words Conner Mcdavid will be amazing and the team as a whole will surprise us.
    Lucic is not washed up at 30 and will be looking for redemption and he will be what we need him to be.
    Leon will be 80+ in points this year and shut the mouths of all the negative bandwagon jumpers.

    • Beer_League_Ringer

      It’s nice to read optimistic comments. Thank you Abagofpucks. Just think about who the team has right now and how young they are. Also, Lucic will be a beast this year. 40+pts and wrecking people all over the ice. Write it down.

  • FLAURIE

    Too bad for Mcdavid the oilers have already wasted his good years with really bad contracts. He will never win anything with the tire fire, cap crunched oilers his whole career. Oh well , at least he will be rich………

  • Big Nuggets

    It looks obvious McDavid is about to go supernova. The way he finished last season and the team needing redemption I expect crazy numbers from McDavid. I also hope Nuge outscores Hall this year. Not because of negative feelings towards Hall, but because Nuge needs some bragging rights. Even if its because of the McDavid bump.