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Breaking down the bait

As Peter Chiarelli and his staff continue their full-court press I’ve decided to take a look at the top 20 pieces in play and if they would be a fit in Edmonton.

I’m going to whip through the most recent edition of the TSN Trade Bait Board. There are three Oilers assets on the board. The 1st round pick is listed at #5, Puljujarvi is 14th and Talbot is 15th. I’d be hesitant to move the pick or Puljujarvi at all but if either of those pieces is moved for a RENTAL everyone should be fired immediately.

The Oilers have already acquired three players who were previously listed on the Trade Bait Board. Wideman, Petrovic and Manning were all on the list when the Oilers brought them to town.

THE BAIT

Matt Duchene, Ottawa:

Oilers Odds: 0/10

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He’s a rental, the price would be too high and the Oilers couldn’t sign him to a long-term deal.

Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia:

Oilers Odds: 1/10

Once again the price for Simmonds will be too high for the Oilers. I’ve seen some people suggest Talbot for Simmonds, wishful thinking. I give it a 1 out 10 because Chiarelli just might be crazy enough.

Michael Ferland, Carolina:

Oilers Odds: 6/10

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Can you get Ferland for a 2nd and a prospect? Probably. His 1.75 million dollar price tag would make him even more attractive to the Oilers. I wonder if his asking price in the off-season would be something the Oilers could make-work. I don’t love the player but he may be someone Chiarelli can fit in.

Mats Zuccarello, Rangers:

Oilers Odds: 5/10

Zuccarello is apparently on the Oilers radar. A high pick and a prospect is the asking price and in a perfect situation the Oilers wouldn’t pay it, but this isn’t a perfect situation. Ferland or Zuccarello, who would you have higher on the want list?

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus:

Oilers Odds: 0/10

There’s a better chance I do a push-up tomorrow morning than the Oilers trade for Bobrovsky. The Blue Jackets are fighting for top spot in their division; they need to get things sorted out with the former Vezina winner.

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Dougie Hamilton, Carolina:

Oilers Odds: 3/10

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I’ll say there is an outside shot Hamilton could become an Oiler in some sort of bigger deal that would most certainly piss most of you off. Ferland and Hamilton for ______________. Fill it in down in the comments section.

Gustav Nyquist, Detroit:

Oilers Odds: 4/10

Nyquist has 11 goals so far this season and would be a lock for top six minutes in Edmonton. The Wings would have to take some salary back to make any sort of deal work.

Jimmy Howard, Detroit:

Oilers Odds: 0/10

Nothing to see here; move on.

Brayden Schenn, St. Louis:

Oilers Odds: 3/10

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I’ll say there is a 30% chance this could happen simply because the Blues did have some interest in Puljujarvi at the draft this past summer. I’d be careful paying a hefty price for Schenn as he is a UFA at the end of next season and will likely price himself out of Edmonton’s cap structure.

Jakub Silfverberg, Anaheim:

Oilers Odds: 3/10

I’ve always liked this player and he’d be a perfect fit on Nugent-Hopkins wing. He’s a UFA making 3.75 million right now; with a little work in the off-season he may be a guy they could resign.

Charlie Coyle, Minnesota:

Oilers Odds: 1/10

I don’t see it being a fit.

Kevin Hayes, Rangers:

Oilers Odds: 2/10

He’s having a nice season with the Rangers and if they do plan on moving him I think the price ends up being too costly for the Oilers.

Jake Muzzin, Los Angeles:

Oilers Odds: 1/10

Muzzin would be a nice upgrade on the blue line but this team is looking for help up front right now.

Colton Parayko, St. Louis:

Oilers Odds: 3/10

I have the odds a little higher than Muzzin simply because the Oilers have had Parayko talks with the Blues in the past. Any Parayko acquisition would likely be an off-season deal.

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Nick Bjugstad, Florida:

Oilers Odds: 4/10

If the Oilers are only willing to move their 1st or Puljujarvi for a player with term Bjugstad may fit the bill. He has two more years left on his deal after this season. He scored 19 goals and 49 points last season, plus the Panthers are in need of a shakeup.

Alex Edler, Vancouver:

Oilers Odds: 0/10

If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet I wouldn’t be more surprised than I’d be if the Oilers traded for Edler.

Brett Pesce, Carolina:

Oilers Odds: 0/10

I’m going to say there is zero chance he becomes an Oiler because I still see him being part of a Nylander deal in the off-season.

Ryan Dzingel, Ottawa:

Oilers Odds: 7/10

The Sens are worried about signing Stone and Duchene, not Dzingel. I’d be shocked if he’s not moved somewhere prior to the deadline. He’s on pace for at least 30 goals this season and comes with a cap hit of just 1.8 million. Chiarelli is all over this.

Kasperi Kapanen, Toronto:

Oilers Odds: 1/10

I like this player, a lot. I just don’t see how the Oilers and Leafs come to terms on a deal.

Andreas Johnsson, Los Angeles:

Oilers Odds: 1/10

I’m not sure why the Leafs would move him. He can contribute to their line up right now and shouldn’t cost them too much on his second deal.

SOOOOOOOO

If the Oilers are in the market for a rental it’s likely Ferland or Dzingel. Chiarelli may end up having to pay a higher price for either of those two guys simply because they are the only guys who realistically fit into the cap without having to make another move. I wouldn’t move the 1st round pick or Puljujarvi for either of those two guys, even if they come with a contract extension. What Say You?

Previously by Dustin Nielson:


        • jesse says yep

          yeah I dont know about that. Ferland will be had for a 2nd/3rd round pick since he is a ufa, Dzingle probably a high pick + prospect. Drafted in 2011 in the 7th round, 4th season in the league and this is second season of 20 goals. Where is his ceiling?

    • Vanoil

      Need to unload salary to be able to sign Ferland after this year. If he wants Wilson money — $5.25M on a long-term deal, the Oil would have to shed some serious salary — Russell or Lucic, plus Manning, etc. Not likely going to happen for a player who steps into a Kassian / bottom six role.

  • Oilerup!

    I say…No Trades at all with Pete in the chair!
    Reason: “the best prediction for future behaviour, is the obvious to see in past behaviour” …. I truly believe that Pete has lost the team on all levels and is desperately trying any and all moves with the mindset of a man who knows he’s done and is tryin anything to alter his imminent demise.
    No more trashed, if we are in, great, then they can reset for post season and judge him (or his position) accordingly!

    • Guy5354

      He’s still the GM. If it takes a couple of trades to make the playoffs then he should do it. The games are so much more exciting to watch when they mean something. If he can improve the team right now and make the playoffs then without a doubt do it.

  • Ty Guy

    I am an Oiler Fan in Calgary….they pick up Flames Garbage from Carolina and i will never hear the end of it… I am finally at the point where my flamer friends stopped ribbing me so hard and started to feel sad for me….its too easy, not even fun to grill me anymore.

    this team can’t mortgage the future for bottom 6 guys and 7-8 pair d-men…winning a trade has become too big a priority

    • QuitForRealThisTime

      Revenge will come when the 1st place pacific team Calgary Flames lose to the 4th place pacific team Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs….(a fella can dream can’t he?)

    • Oil9744

      The Flames garbage from Carolina?? Dougie Hamilton is a better defencmen then ANY defencemen on the Oilers. 6’6”, right shot, on a good contract, only 25 years old, and he just had 17 goals and 44 points last season alone, show me any Oilers dman who did that. You would “hear the end of it” when Hamilton goes back to Calgary and lights them man up in an Oilers jersey cause they won’t have much to say then.

      • Ty Guy

        Calgary Folk could not stand Hamilton…at least the flamer d-bags i hang with couldn’t. They tagged him as a defensive liability who was prone to bad mistakes…not checking any boxes for me to add to the roster…especially for what the ask would be.

        • Oil9744

          Edmonton has an a lot of depth at Left Defence with Klefbomb, Nurse, Russel, Sekera, never mind Jones who’s already looking like he will stick around and Manning, whatever he’s doing here who knows, that is a cluster [email protected]@k of D on the left side to say the least! Who do we have on the right side?? Larsson, then it falls off a cliff all the way to Petrovic and he’s a bottom pairing at best right now, Carolina is the opposite and has a lot of depth on the right side Defence with Pesce, Hamilton, Faulk, so I bet they would be willing to trade Hamilton for a top 4 Left D from Edmonton and I would trade any of them for him. Hamilton and Nurse would be a solid line. The deal would make sense for both teams.

    • Vanoil

      Dzingel isn’t worth a 1st rounder, not even a conditional (lottery protected one). Second or a higher-end prospect (one who is likely to make an impact in the NHL within 2/3 years.

  • HeavyChevy

    The only way I’d want Chiarelli leading any trade discussion is if he includes himself in the deal. Surely no one believes a deliriously desperate Chiarelli is capable of completing a trade that will provide immediate help and not add to their cap hell? I would trust someone that has done consistently well in a fantasy hockey pool more than Chiarelli at this point. They couldn’t do worse. Please Bobby Nick, Katz, Lowe, whoever, do not let this man trade away the #1 and Puljujarvi. He’s not capable of getting a respectable return.

  • Hemmercules

    The Oilers aren’t cup contenders so don’t mortgage the future for short term fixes that need contracts this summer. Pretty simple. Sometimes no move is the best move. Especially in Chia’s case.

    If they can move Talbot, one of Yam or JP and a pick for a forward or two that can contribute and have at least another year on their contract its probably worth it. Definitely save that fist round pick and the defensive prospects.

    • TKO

      Dzingle is a 30 goal guy, and your going to sign him for less than Draisaitl? Maybe, but assuming Chaison gets 2 millions that leave 2 mil for Dz, not happening. He wants a 30 goal scorer’s bump

      • Gary Chalmers

        Chiasson is making 650K, he hits 20 goals, never has before, he may sign for 1 – 1.3 mill, Dzingle is making 1.8mill, maybe he signs for 3 mill that’s 4.3 mill a year for 2 players. Dzingles highest point total is 41 points, and 23 goals, in 4 years, if he wants more than 3.5 mill/year he’s dreaming because he is no where close to Draisaitl’s level. Draisaitl has had 3 – 20 goal seasons, 2 – 70 point seasons, could hit 40 goals this year, and 90+ points and you think Dzingle is on his level? If you cant sign these 2 for total 4.5/year then the whole system is messed up.

  • TKB2677

    I would be all over Dzingel. Has OK size, great speed, proven goal scoring touch. He’s a legit top 6 guy. Other than being a bit smaller and not right handed, he’s what I expected Puljujarvi to be in year 3. I would go get him and I would be after him to get him resigned immediately.

    Ferland I wouldn’t pay as much for. I think he is more of a real good 3rd line guy who can moonlight in your top 6 for short spurts. He looks like a poster boy for a player who some team will sign him for 4.5 mill and then he is a 15 goal guy for his contract.

  • camdog

    Dougie Hamilton is in the process of being traded for the third time in 5 years. I don’t know the reasons and I’d prefer not to figure it out the hard way.

  • TKB2677

    On one hand, I totally understand the notion of not mortgaging the future by trading picks and prospects but at the same time, don’t you as a team need to improve the NHL team too? The Oilers aren’t a cup contender this year so I am not really onboard with getting a straight up rental. But if you can go and get a player who you can resign like maybe a Dzingel, I don’t see why you wouldn’t. I wouldn’t give up a first but after that I’d considerate depending on the player and if you can resign him. Like giving up a second is a lot but if you can get say a Dzingel signed and you have a guy who for the next 3 or 4 years at least is a 20 goal score and a good player on your team, I think it’s worth it. Taken Benson as an example. He was a high 2nd round pick in 2016. In his first year in Bakersfield, sounds like he is doing well. So he might have a shot to make the Oilers next year. Where he slots in, who knows but I doubt it’s higher than the 3rd line. But from the time he was drafted to him maybe making the Oilers next year, that’s 4 years. If he does make the NHL next year, chances are he’s not much of an impact player his first NHL season and it might take him another season or 2 in the NHL to be an impact guy where as a Dzingel probably steps right in and helps you out immediately and for seasons to come.

    • jesse says yep

      Great comment. There are holes in the lineup and it is not likely that they can all be filled in one summer. Make the deals when they are available as they may not come around for awhile. At least this is what experienced GMs have said

      • TKB2677

        Even a guy like Puljujarvi. I was pumped they drafted him. Physically, he has everything you want in a hockey player. He’s right handed and has tons of potential. I do not like the idea of trading him at all because of what he might be. But at the same time, I am hearing guys like even Stauffer who’s an Oilers mouth piece saying it might take until he’s 22 or 23 before he establishes himself if at all. 22!!!! So we are talking like 5 or 6 years from his draft year before this guy MIGHT be a decent player? I understand that some players take longer than others to develop and the Oilers probably should have had him in the minors for way longer. But he was taken 4th overall, there was a time when he was being considered over Laine. When you are drafted that high, shouldn’t you be able to at least be an NHL 3rd liner? The guy has 4 freaking goals this year. That’s not even mediocre 4th liner numbers. My fear is what if he is another Yakupov who the Oilers put 4 full years into before they finally gave up on him, traded him for nothing and 2 years later is out of the NHL?

          • TKB2677

            You are correct. Maybe he was in over his head a bit and hasn’t reached his peak until this season but he could at least PLAY from year one. Even though he was their #1 center and not ready to be that for years, he was no worse than a OK second line center or an extremely good 3rd line center. It’s year 3 and Puljujarvi isn’t even a full time NHLer. Big freaking difference.

        • jesse says yep

          I wouldnt give up on JP just yet. Ive noticed how is learning to use his body to shield the puck and seems to be getting more chances of late. I thought he would have broken out by now but really no point in moving him seeing that a)value is low b) still under control c) hasn’t warranted much a raise when his contract is up.

  • Glencontrolurstik

    I think Kapinen would be a great fit. He’s young, good value & skilled & plays with purpose.
    I’d give up Yamamoto OR Bear & a second round pick.

    • TKB2677

      That would be something I would be interested in. You are trading for a guy who at worse is a young, top 9 guy with speed for futures. He needs a new contract and the Leafs have to sign Matthews and Marner so there is only so much money to go around.

  • McRaj

    Trade for Tarasenko. Pulju + Lottery Protected first + Spooner + Talbot + Bear. Should be able to get it done. Put him on a line with Nuge and you finally have 2 lines that can score.

  • ROILYDoGG$

    Hope we don’t trade off our young pooorly developed players like Yamo and pj. Put them back to the ahl and let them develop for the rest of the year .
    We won’t need our 1-3 round picks because they won’t be Nhl ready for 2-3 years anyway. So offer those picks for
    Ottawa’s Ryan Dzingel, plus a 3rd back for our 1st round ,
    Vegas knights Brandon Pirri for our 3rd and Reider.

    • Dark Knight Returns

      Name 3 players that came from Bakersfield (and spent more than a season there)that are lighting it up with the Oilers…. when I say lightning it up meaning that they’ve become part of the core and part of the team that could be cup contenders.

      This organization can’t develop in the AHL nor in the NHL, it’s pointl to send anyone down there, they don’t improve, there’s no history suggesting they improve just by going there.

      Trade them both, another organization will develop them properly and we will get a better return now that they haven’t been exposed “so much”to this circus. Otherwise see Yakupov, Nail….. what did we get on that trade?

  • Abagofpucks

    If the Oilers met the flames in the first round we would win and break the poor flames fans hearts. The regular season is a far different game than the playoffs and i’m pretty confident we would hammer them into submission.

  • Harry2

    Everyone wants top 6 wingers in Edm but no one wants to give anything up to get one.

    If you can land a young legitimate top 6 winger with term to play with RNH for JP and a 2nd do it all day long.

    The development time is over win now!!!

  • TKO

    Hopefully Ferland ends up in Calgary, knows the players and the team for comfort and fit, and he knows he would have a legit chance of going deep in the post season in Calgary. If he is going g somewhere as a rental, let it be Calgary

    • Cowbell_Feva

      Deep run in Calgary? Seriously dude put down the Kool aid. Do you think a formula for success in the post season is to consistently be trailing in the 3rd period?
      If Rittich had not bailed your team out night in night out you would be flirting with the wildcard like the Oilers.
      The Flames have zero chance of beating the likes of San Jose or Winnipeg or Vegas or Nashville. They might not beat a wildcard team.

      • Peplinski's Thunderbird

        Dude, when is the last time you checked the standings? Calgary trails only Tampa in the entire league, and had to overcome terrible goaltending to start the season. Smith has an .889 SV% and still has 13 wins. Zero chance of beating those teams? hahahaha flames have beaten all of those teams already, with a couple games being blowouts. Don’t make a fool of yourself chirping flames fans, we’ve been taking it easy on you guys lately for your gm’s incompetence.

  • As you mentioned Parayko would make more sense in the summer, most likely the draft. The only in-season help I’d look at is Dzingel otherwise it’s absolutely no for me, I want the next GM to have as many bargaining chips as possible and I really don’t want to see our first moved when we don’t even know if it’ll be a top-5 pick or 15-20 range pick.

    • Vanoil

      Only makes sense in the summer because we don’t have the cap room right now to sign him. But if you unload Russell to a contender in the East who needs a top 4 D man — Toronto, and has a surplus of cheap young, productive wingers (Kapenen) who they can’t re-sign next year. If you can do a deal that gives them immediate help for their play-off run and some-upside in the future — Russell and Bear (or Lagesson), then you unload some money to bring in a Parayko, stabilize your own D for not just this play-off run but the future as well. What is the cost of Parayko — likely Puljujarvi plus. Only issue is you know Toronto is speaking directly to St. Louis about Parayko as well, so the issue is can you out-bid Toronto — is Puljujarvi better than Kapenen in St. Louis’ eyes? Chiapete will definitely have to sweeten the pot, and then do so again with TO. Quite frankly, no one in OIL country (or the league) would have the confidence in Chiapete to pull that off without getting fleeced.

  • Abagofpucks

    TKO you guys have been telling us Oiler fans we are a bottom feeder for how long now and you need odds to make a bet huh lol. I guess your not that confident in the flames chances of getting out of the first rd. But i understand your fear, other than the 1 cup year and the 04 season the flames pretty much have gotten the boot in the 1st rd.

  • Cowbell_Feva

    I know he wasn’t listed. But Athansiou from Detroit is a guy I’ve always thought would be a great fit here.
    Young kid that can absolutely fly. Not sure the Wings are willing to move him, but I feel his game would help the top 6 now, and is young enough to help for years to come if locked up.

  • Vanoil

    Leafs need D help now and future — Top 4 D (Russell is a here and now proven top 4 D who will likely succeed in the Eastern conference, he has a price tag which fits for them now, but maybe not after that, but they can off-load some money in the off-season, or trade Russell again) and a prospect (we have a tone of D prospects, they probably want someone close to NHL ready … Bear? Lagesson? … anybody but Jones). This would create a huge hole in the top 4 D at a time when you are making a playoff push, but there’s this guy Parayko in St. Louis who is available — way better up-grade from Russell (someone who has played for Hitch, and who Hitch likes, someone fromthe area and who is signed to an affordable contract for three more years — $5.5M). What would it take for Parayko — Puljujaarvi or the first rounder plus … (if St. Louis is out, and Chiarelli is savvy enough, he can make this work). That’s how you get top end talent up-front and on the back-end which will impact this year and next year, without breaking the bank, and while still leaving room to pick up a player like Dzingle from Ottawa, as a short term rental with a potential renewal.