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What Now?

Bob Nicholson didn’t divulge much at his press conference earlier today. There were a few things that grabbed my attention, but what stood out most was he didn’t announce any firings. I thought there was a small chance he might announce some people were no longer with the organization, but instead, he announced that once the new GM is in place he will decide who stays.

I disagree with this approach.

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The Oilers pro scouting and management decisions have not been good enough since Nicholson was hired four years ago. The amateur scouting has done their job, and they’ve stockpiled the farm system with some quality prospects, with more lining up to turn pro in the next year or two.

But those on the pro scouting side, player personnel and in management roles, have failed. The results are pretty clear, from ill-advised buyouts, bad trades, and some questionable signings.

So, why would Nicholson not make those changes now, rather than have the new GM make that decision? The new GM, unless it is Keith Gretzky, had nothing to do with those moves, so why waste time and have him spend hours evaluating the results?

So I asked Nicholson: why no changes now?

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“I just thought leaving the structure the way it is for now,” said Nicholson. “I will certainly be talking about those weaknesses, because there are some weaknesses, and I want to do that in conjunction with him. So he gets the full picture. There are a lot of people I want to sign right now, 99% they will be signed, but we made the decision to hold everything as it is today and then move forward.”

I didn’t get a chance to follow up on this, but after reading it again I hope he was referring to signing players, like Alex Chiasson, not signing people in management to extensions. That is the opposite of what he said earlier in the press conference, “The new GM will have the final say.”

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CHANGE IS NEEDED

Regardless of whom you look at, the Oilers management needs to be overhauled. That doesn’t mean every single person, but it has to be more than Peter Chiarelli. They have not been successful as a group, and when that happens on the ice, there are changes, so that same thought process should be applied to management.

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I think Keith Gretzky and the amateur scouts have done a solid job. I could see why they would want to keep him, but does he want to stay if he doesn’t get the GM job?

“I do want to be the GM, and there are a lot of candidates, but as Bob (Nicholson) mentioned there is work he has to do and I have to accept the process and move forward. Right now it is about the team and we have to get ready for the draft. We will discuss it after the draft,” said Gretzky.

That last line makes me wonder if Gretzky believes he isn’t getting the job. Today, that is my sense, and I could understand if after the draft he decides he’d rather go to another organization and have a chance to move his way up to a GM role.

So Gretzky might leave, depending on who the new GM is, but his resume in Edmonton suggests he is one person you’d want to keep. But there have to be changes within the structure of their pro scouting and management, doesn’t there?

The new GM will evaluate Craig MacTavish (Senior VP or Hockey Operations), Duane Sutter (VP or Player Personnel), Scott Howson (VP Player Development), Bob Greene (Director, Player Personnel), Bill Scott (Capologist and Assistant to President of Hockey Operations) and pro scouts Chris Cichocki and Paul Messier.

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They all work hard, but the team isn’t winning. The organization’s evaluation of pro players, trades and signings, hasn’t been good enough. I’m not privy to exactly how much say each man has, but Nicholson should. There should be scouting reports to analyze.

I don’t like leaving this to the new GM. Nicholson and Keith Gretzky should know the impact these men had, both positively and negatively, so shed those who weren’t helping. Peter Chiarelli might have made the Drake Caggiula trade for Brandon Manning on his own, with some input from Ken Hitchcock, but Chiarelli did not work alone in the Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle or Ryan Strome trades. There were others in the organization who agreed with these deals.

Oilers owner Daryl Katz should be demanding more from his management team, and he should be empowering Nicholson to make the tough decisions.

It came across as the GM will be the one making the decisions, and if he decides to make change it is him and not Nicholson or Katz. I view that as the organization somewhat passing the buck. It might not be, but that’s how I see it.

ANALYTICS…

Nicholson has admitted the Oilers didn’t use analytics enough under Peter Chiarelli and that will change with the new GM. The fact that occurred is another reason why more changes within management need to happen. None of them stood up and yelled and screamed and said this is asinine? Or did no one listen?

Either way, it isn’t good. Darcy Mcleod is someone I’ve come to trust when it comes to analytics and how teams see them. He tweeted this earlier today.

Not good. But outside of analytics for on-ice use, I’d argue if we came up with a formula to evaluate trades during the past four years they’d show weaknesses similar to how analytics can point out on-ice deficiencies.

I asked Gretzky about the pro trades that haven’t worked out.

“On the pro side a little bit has to do with us trying to fit on the go, with the injuries, and on defence we were really shorthanded. We overpaid and the players didn’t pan out and it looks bad.  We have to use all of our tools of analytics, or all our scouts and depend on each other to make smart decisions,” answered Gretzky.

I appreciated his honesty. They overpaid. It looks bad, and it does. And his last line is very telling. Trust and use each other. That wasn’t happening enough under Chiarelli, and that’s a sign of dysfunction.

That has to change moving forward. Nicholson doesn’t scout. I don’t expect him to, but he is in charge of the organization and he needs to clear up the dysfunction. The Oilers have been plagued by it for years.

They have too many people pulling in opposite directions. They need a clear chain of command. You have an issue, you go to the GM. None of this garbage texting to the owner, and offering up alternative points of view. It creates turmoil and the Oilers have too much of it.

It is another reason why more changes need to be made within hockey operations.

I did ask Gretzky if some of the pro scouts or management need to be changed, similar to when they change players who have negative analytics?

“For me to say if things need to be changed that isn’t my call today. That is the GM’s call, and he will go through and sift through all the scouts and everybody in the organization. He will make his decision on what he needs to do to improve any areas,” said Gretzky.

Would he make changes if he was GM?

“If I’m the GM, I would sit back and evaluate it. I have a plan, but I can’t tell you my plan,” he replied.

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LOOKING AHEAD…

When should they have a new GM in place? Ideally, it would be early May, but there has been the odd occasion where the new GM gets hired in June.

The Pittsburgh Penguins hired Jim Rutherford on June 6th, 2014. Jason Botterill had been the Interim GM since they fired Ray Shero on May 16th, after losing to the Rangers in the second round of the playoffs. Rutherford made a minor deal on June 24th, but then on the 27th he traded James Neal to Nashville for Patrik Hornqvist and Nick Spaling. The Penguins were not a major player in free agency. Rutherford didn’t inherit a team in need of fixing like the current edition of the Oilers, so ideally Nicholson will have a GM before June.

Most are hired well before that, unless they are during the season replacements or getting promoted from within, which often occur in early July, the start of a new NHL season.

Doug Wilson, May 13th, 2003
Kevin Cheveldayoff, June 8th, 2011 (Jets moved from ATL that summer, new owner).
Marc Bergevin, May 2nd, 2012
Jim Nill, April 29th, 2013
Brad Treliving, April 28th, 2014
Jim Benning, May 21st, 2014
Brian MacLellan, May 26th, 2014. *Promoted from within.**
Ray Shero, May 4th, 2015
Don Sweeney, May 20th, 2015
Pierre Dorian, April 10th, 2016
John Chayka, May 5th, 2016
Dale Tallon, April 10th, 2017
Rob Blake, April 10th, 2017
Jason Botterill, May 8th, 2018
Kyle Dubas, May 11th, 2018
Paul Fenton, May 21st, 2018
Lou Lamoriello, June 5th, 2018

Outside of Lamoriello and Rutherford, who have a lot of experience, the rest were hired in April or May.

The Oilers should have their GM in place no later than May 15th, and ideally a bit sooner. If that means one of the guys they want to interview, Kelly McCrimmon for example, is still in the playoffs, then he doesn’t get interviewed.

The most active trade time in the NHL is the two week period leading up to the draft and free agency. I’d want the GM in place for at least six weeks prior to that so they have time to mount a strong plan of attack.

In my view this was the most disappointing season in Oilers franchise history. There has to be more change, and some of it should occur before the new GM is hired.

Recently by Jason Gregor:


  • Dallas Eakins Hair

    Sorry to say folks, but I think what we will see is Bob doing his best “Where’s Waldo” imitation as Katz sends him here and there a couple times and Bob does a couple photo Op’s and the Oilers PR team leaks the “Bob went to this city and interviewed so and so about the GM position…but dont tell anyone ~wink wink~ ” and it will look like old Bob was pounding the pavement looking for a GM… when in Rea;lity the OBC has decided Old Keith G will be the GM but names later on , cause got to make the fans think we looked.

    Honestly I get the sinking feeling there is no real search for a GM, just a PR spin story we were told long ago because Keith was the heir apparent and I will say this straight out if Keith gets named GM, I will be none to happy. Keith doesnt have the experience we need to get us out of this mess IMHO, He was under Chia while some of these trades were going on… now he might not have a say… but damn he had to have had some input, this is way way way rto big a mess for him to handle. Christ they never even did anything with Chaisson , and I am going to be he gets scooped by another team for more money whwne the Oilers could have probobaly had him in the 1.6 – 1.85 range back when he had 15 goals……. I dont think they get a deal now under 2.2 if they are lucky and they couyld have done way better, and if they lose him, that wont be good, losing 20 goals isnt a good thing when we have trouble putting the puck in the net half the time by guys out of the top six

    I hope Keith aint going to be the GM… assistant maybe, but not GM… he just isnt ready for the mess the Oilers are and to get us out of it

    • FISTO Siltanen

      Valid points.

      Not disagreeing but I’d be okay with him staying as GM PROVIDED the Oilers hire a veteran PoHO – someone with GM experience who can guide KG.

      The stupid choice is to put KG as GM and figure out PoHO much later while keeping the morons here who have driven this 18 wheeler off the cliff and set it on fire.

      …Katz is rich. Can’t he just pay his friends to be his friends and leave it at that?

  • JayTee

    You’d think all the success this organization had in the 80’s and early 90’s, they’d want to see that continue for today’s generation. It really makes no sense as to how the organization has managed to get to this point in time. We should be where the Lightning are.

    • Dallas Eakins Hair

      I think that is part of the problem with KLowe and Mact.,… because of their early success, and being Katz pals, they know what is best for the team. Cripes look a Klowes tiered fans comment and his proclamation of he knows how to win because of razzing he took for his Rangers cup picture in his office or where. I dont think those two have lost any say, despite the title shuffling, I think they have way more pull and way more say then we know and I believe they still have the mantra of we knows whats best for the Oilers… no one else does. That to me is part of the issue, is the OBC still has muscle and power and still controls too much of what going on in the backround , its been a major part of the issue for the last 15 years IMHO. Klow and Mact have done well for themselves, they will both have a very comfortable financial future when they retire…and its time they take one for the fans and go do something else and retire

  • hagar

    It’s all boils down to the FACT that they don’t know what they have been doing for 14 years, and their plan is to continue with the same people to try and figure the future out.

    What an absolute kick in the bean bag..

  • Rick Stroppel

    Keith Gretzky is starting to sound like Nicholson and the OBC. When asked about their stupid mid-season trades he said “we have to use all our tools of analytics” [what tools, they fired almost all their analytics people] and rely on “all our scouts” [all two of them, including one in the Bahamas, who has the right name]. KG also whined about injuries and doing this “on the run”. More excuse-making. Every NHL team has injuries. This season Anaheim lost these players, and finished AHEAD of the Oilers: Getzlaf 15 games, Rackell 13, Fowler 23, Perry 51. Arizona lost these players and finished AHEAD of the Oilers: Chychrun 29 games, Grabner 41, Schmaltz 65. Keith Gretzky will be the GM and HE WILL FIT RIGHT IN. Also…the AHL team won 17 games in a row…yippee…AHL call-ups made zero impact on the NHL team but hey, must keep the positive thinking alive! And in other news…look, over there…a squirrel!

  • What the

    Jason, when BN was asked about culture he spoke about player quality. You’re Q above he left you thinking the changes needed to happen atthe player level .

    Do you get any sense BN is looking at anything above the player level beyond a GM?

  • RJ

    This really isn’t that complicated.

    While Koskinen had a good start of his season, the last month or so has really focused in on some major flaws in his game. Had they waited until now, that would have been known before they offered him a contract. Maybe he’s not the starter next season, but he wouldn’t be a terrible back-up who can start a few games in a pinch (if and when he works on his glove-hand).

    Anyone who signed off on this extension should be let go.

    • hagar

      I can’t think of another situation this would be possible.
      Four number one picks in 6 years, one is McDavid. Like another 4 or five top ten picks.. lmao!! This is so far beyond reality here..
      The single only constant is the people in charge.

    • hagar

      When they feel like it.
      All the talent that has come and gone, entire rosters changed four times over, ten coaches, and every single version of the team, played with the same off and on effort.
      It’s the largest reason by far we are where we are. The captain, co captain, and a few officers from the start have sluffed accountability like it means nothing.
      This goes well past new gms and adding some help on d.

  • GK1980

    “In my view this was the most disappointing season in Oilers franchise history. There has to be more change, and some of it should occur before the new GM is hired.”

    Incorrect , next season will be.

  • camdog

    Katz doesn’t have the cash to pay for people to be unemployed. His billions of dollars are tied up in real estate. He doesn’t have the cash flow to pay for more people not to work.

  • RJ

    If Katz has any decision-making authority, that will undoubtedly have an impact on the GM hire. It will also have a major impact on whether the OBC stays or goes. Anyone can see that the only constant over the last 6 seasons (not to mention the last 13) has been in the senior management. They should go, but Nicks isn’t going to pull the trigger himself.

    For me that either means he’s spineless or he’s got direction from Katz not to be hasty in turfing them.

  • CMG30

    Yes this is just conformation of what We already suspected was going on. Organization run by groupthink. Diffuses responsibility for bad decisions so troublesome and ineffective ideas are never rooted out. Instead everyone is either absorbed into the hive mind or expelled. In the Oilers case, The hive mind has been valuing the wrong things for a decade and will continue down the same path making the same kind of dumb decisions baised on the same flawed ideas until they are turfed. This organization will make an ideal case study for business majors for years to come…

  • Heschultzhescores

    What now? Simple. New faces behind the bench. New faces on the ice, New GM, but the same group sitting at the wine summit. This is hopeless. The egos of Katz and his bought buddies is killing the team.

  • Derzie

    Absolutely NOTHING is going to change. They are digging in their heels. Bob couldn’t go one single day without spilling the beans:
    “There are a lot of people I want to sign right now, 99% they will be signed, but we made the decision to hold everything as it is today and then move forward.”

    What an absolute moron. 2 solid facts came from today:

    1. The GM search is indeed for a yes man for the OBC, and,
    2. The ‘analytics’ help they speak of to analyze sheep patterns to sell more season tickets & burgers.

    They have been insular for SO long they have forgotten that the majority of the people they are addressing are seeing right through their buffoonery.

    • Derzie

      Oh, and if you give them ANY of your hard earned money, you should be very ashamed. History will look back on you as dutiful sheep, for which your ancestors will lie and claim to be from anywhere but Edmonton.

    • OilTastic

      i hear yuh ! watching this garbage since the tank season of ’09/’10 is wearing on my nerves too ! so much so that i don’t even care about the draft anymore because the Oilers will just pick a bunch of good players that they won’t be able to figure out how to win with anyways !!

  • Oiler Al

    What potential GM that is worth h is salt would come to this frigged up organization. Here’s your first clue… he is not hiring a hockey ops president,so to me the old OBC has not been turfed, meaning same old,same old.SAD!. A rookie no name GM or Keith will be the new GM and the Viagra Board will run the show from the shadows,as in the past.The proof is in on meddling owners..see Ottawa,Montreal,Vanc, and Edm.Oh and not in the playoffs.

  • Gravis82

    Wait what? Who was texting the owner and complaining?

    Was it Mac T?

    Also, why was he doing that? This is important. If he was dissenting to the manning trade, Strome a trade, and the other terrible moves then that is fine with me.

  • Just a Fan

    You want the new GM to have control to make any/all changes but you also want Nicholson to fire people immediately. I think he is doing exactly the right thing. You find your guy and you let the current management plead the case of why they belong in the organization. Doing anything else is the exact opposite of what you say you want.

  • camdog

    The Old Boys texting the owner, WtF I missed that the first time…PC making moves independently of the Old Boys. This is the kind of culture Nicholson is trying to protect?