<p>The Ottawa Senators <a href="http://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/dorion-keeping-all-his-options-on-trade-front-including-karlsson" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly</a> asked every player with a no-move or no-trade clause to submit their no-go lists, including Erik Karlsson. This comes after Doughty&#8217;s free-agent <a href="https://theathletic.com/169420/2017/11/29/custance-drew-doughty-already-considering-his-approach-to-2019-free-agent-superclass/">talk</a> with The Athletic sparked <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-talks-free-agency-im-going-get-im-worth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comments</a> from Karlsson about getting his market value in a year and a half. That&#8217;s not what the frugal Senators want to hear. They&#8217;re also 1-9-2 in their last 12 games, so trade <a href="https://twitter.com/SunGarrioch/status/940225062682202113">rumours</a> are bound to follow. Colleague Matt Henderson wrote about Karlsson&#8217;s availability <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2017/12/10/is-karlsson-available/#comments">here</a>, so let&#8217;s build off that and see if Edmonton could afford the acquisition cost and Karlsson&#8217;s next contract.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Sportsnet added fuel to the fire on their <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-karlsson-senators-player-tracking-nhl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Saturday Headlines</a> segment, although, Karlsson&#8217;s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-erik-karlsson-want-win-ottawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">backtracked</a> since, saying he&#8217;s happy and wants to win where he is. Ottawa is at the bottom of the league, and if they&#8217;re not going to pony up for Karlsson, he might realistically be available.</p>
<p>Edmonton&#8217;s made significant strides in building a respectable blueline over the past few years, but Karlsson is the mythical number-one defenceman that changes everything. The Oilers passed on P.K. Subban and Travis Hamonic, and missed out on Dougie Hamilton, so can they afford to disregard another big name, right-handed defenceman out there?</p>
<h1>The Cost</h1>
<figure id="attachment_46360" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-46360" style="width: 1424px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-46360" src="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/usatsi_10356916.jpg" alt="" width="1424" height="949" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-46360" class="wp-caption-text">Oct 19, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom (77) controls the puck against the Chicago Blackhawks during the second period at United Center. Oilers won 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>
<p>Ottawa&#8217;s going to want serious assets back, meaning Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, and or possible draft picks or prospects. These types of moves are rare, but Edmonton could solidify their defense for years. The Oilers have a wealth of left-handed defenceman, and less so on the right side, as well as the center depth that could survive a subtraction not named McDavid.</p>
<p>Ottawa would want to send him out West in any hypothetical Erik Karlsson trade. Although he&#8217;d ultimately dictate where he wants to go, Edmonton&#8217;s a lot more attractive with Connor McDavid signed long-term. McDavid and Karlsson would be the best centre/defense combo in the league. The Oilers took a step back this season, but having McDavid and Karlsson puts them back on track to contend.</p>
<h1>The Cap</h1>
<p>Karlsson&#8217;s going to get paid. Subban is the highest paid defenceman with a $9 million cap hit currently, and both Karlsson and Doughty will surpass that on their next contracts. Lets say Karlsson comes in around $11 million per year. <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2017/12/08/nhl-salary-cap-to-rise-in-2018-19/">The cap will go up</a> to ~$80 million next season, so could Edmonton afford McDavid, Draisaitl, and Karlsson at $30 million or more combined? It&#8217;d be tough, but doable.</p>
<p>Chicago has Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Brent Seabrook at a combined $27.875 million, about 37% of this year&#8217;s salary cap.</p>
<p>Pittsburgh pays Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang $25.4 million in total, or 33% of the cap.</p>
<p>Washington has Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, and Matt Nisknanen at $23 million or 30%, but John Carlson is a free agent next summer and will get a big raise from his $3.96m cap hit.</p>
<p>Edmonton’s hypothetical there would cost more, but Karlsson&#8217;s contract wouldn&#8217;t kick in until the 2019-20 season, where the cap might be closer to $85 million. This is also assuming Draisaitl isn&#8217;t part of any Karlsson trade, otherwise cap concerns aren&#8217;t as great. Dumping Kris Russell or trading him for an equally priced forward would be necessary.</p>
<h1>The Risk</h1>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-36014" src="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/thinker.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="848" /></p>
<p>As good as Karlsson is, he&#8217;ll be 29 when his next contract begins and he&#8217;s already returned from a <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/karlsson-reveals-more-about-ankle-injury-1.868641" target="_blank" rel="noopener">major</a> injury this season. He&#8217;s been fairly healthy for most of his career, but you&#8217;d likely be buying his 29-37 year-old seasons.</p>
<p>Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli already had another late twenties defenceman Ottawa was not able to sign join his team before: Zdeno Chara. Chara&#8217;s a bit of a freak, and there&#8217;s an obvious size difference, but Chara remained healthy through most of his contract with Boston, and is still playing 23 minutes a game at age 40.</p>
<p>Maybe elite defenceman age better than most, but Karlsson&#8217;s still worth the risk. The prospect of having McDavid and Karlsson together has to be enticing enough for Oilers management to consider it, even if it costs them a core player.</p>

The Ottawa Senators <a href="http://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/dorion-keeping-all-his-options-on-trade-front-including-karlsson" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly</a> asked every player with a no-move or no-trade clause to submit their no-go lists, including Erik Karlsson. This comes after Doughty's free-agent <a href="https://theathletic.com/169420/2017/11/29/custance-drew-doughty-already-considering-his-approach-to-2019-free-agent-superclass/">talk</a> with The Athletic sparked <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-talks-free-agency-im-going-get-im-worth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comments</a> from Karlsson about getting his market value in a year and a half. That's not what the frugal Senators want to hear. They're also 1-9-2 in their last 12 games, so trade <a href="https://twitter.com/SunGarrioch/status/940225062682202113">rumours</a> are bound to follow. Colleague Matt Henderson wrote about Karlsson's availability <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2017/12/10/is-karlsson-available/#comments">here</a>, so let's build off that and see if Edmonton could afford the acquisition cost and Karlsson's next contract.



Sportsnet added fuel to the fire on their <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-karlsson-senators-player-tracking-nhl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Saturday Headlines</a> segment, although, Karlsson's <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-erik-karlsson-want-win-ottawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">backtracked</a> since, saying he's happy and wants to win where he is. Ottawa is at the bottom of the league, and if they're not going to pony up for Karlsson, he might realistically be available.

Edmonton's made significant strides in building a respectable blueline over the past few years, but Karlsson is the mythical number-one defenceman that changes everything. The Oilers passed on P.K. Subban and Travis Hamonic, and missed out on Dougie Hamilton, so can they afford to disregard another big name, right-handed defenceman out there?
<h1>The Cost</h1>
[caption id="attachment_46360" align="aligncenter" width="1424"]<img class="size-full wp-image-46360" src="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/usatsi_10356916.jpg" alt="" width="1424" height="949" /> Oct 19, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom (77) controls the puck against the Chicago Blackhawks during the second period at United Center. Oilers won 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]

Ottawa's going to want serious assets back, meaning Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, and or possible draft picks or prospects. These types of moves are rare, but Edmonton could solidify their defense for years. The Oilers have a wealth of left-handed defenceman, and less so on the right side, as well as the center depth that could survive a subtraction not named McDavid.

Ottawa would want to send him out West in any hypothetical Erik Karlsson trade. Although he'd ultimately dictate where he wants to go, Edmonton's a lot more attractive with Connor McDavid signed long-term. McDavid and Karlsson would be the best centre/defense combo in the league. The Oilers took a step back this season, but having McDavid and Karlsson puts them back on track to contend.
<h1>The Cap</h1>
Karlsson's going to get paid. Subban is the highest paid defenceman with a $9 million cap hit currently, and both Karlsson and Doughty will surpass that on their next contracts. Lets say Karlsson comes in around $11 million per year. <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2017/12/08/nhl-salary-cap-to-rise-in-2018-19/">The cap will go up</a> to ~$80 million next season, so could Edmonton afford McDavid, Draisaitl, and Karlsson at $30 million or more combined? It'd be tough, but doable.

Chicago has Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Brent Seabrook at a combined $27.875 million, about 37% of this year's salary cap.

Pittsburgh pays Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang $25.4 million in total, or 33% of the cap.

Washington has Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, and Matt Nisknanen at $23 million or 30%, but John Carlson is a free agent next summer and will get a big raise from his $3.96m cap hit.

Edmonton’s hypothetical there would cost more, but Karlsson's contract wouldn't kick in until the 2019-20 season, where the cap might be closer to $85 million. This is also assuming Draisaitl isn't part of any Karlsson trade, otherwise cap concerns aren't as great. Dumping Kris Russell or trading him for an equally priced forward would be necessary.
<h1>The Risk</h1>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-36014" src="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/thinker.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="848" />

As good as Karlsson is, he'll be 29 when his next contract begins and he's already returned from a <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/karlsson-reveals-more-about-ankle-injury-1.868641" target="_blank" rel="noopener">major</a> injury this season. He's been fairly healthy for most of his career, but you'd likely be buying his 29-37 year-old seasons.

Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli already had another late twenties defenceman Ottawa was not able to sign join his team before: Zdeno Chara. Chara's a bit of a freak, and there's an obvious size difference, but Chara remained healthy through most of his contract with Boston, and is still playing 23 minutes a game at age 40.

Maybe elite defenceman age better than most, but Karlsson's still worth the risk. The prospect of having McDavid and Karlsson together has to be enticing enough for Oilers management to consider it, even if it costs them a core player.

Should the Oilers go all-in on Erik Karlsson?

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